T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Gwathagor]

Ok, well, I was pretty busy today, but here I am now.

Gollum! I was hoping you'd actually analyze Mac, rather than just posting quotes. Can we expect to hear your opinions on him later?

Mac's persistent support of a double-lynch yesterDay seems odd to me, given the disastrous consequences of the previous double-lynch. I realize that tgwbs had listed both Fea and Aganzir under "most guilty," but I don't think that would have been enough reason to lynch both. The potential pay-off did not outweigh the potential negative consequences.

Boro - that was indeed me who pointed out that tgwbs short had referred to Fea and Agan as "most guilty." It's obvious now that he just meant it in the sense of "most suspicious" - well, hang on. He would, had he dreamed of Agan, have interpreted her soulmate role as an innocent rather than guilty role, right? Yeah I guess that's a safe assumption.

Aganzir - how does your soulmate-vengeance-kill work exactly?

Time to sleep. Another early morning coming up.

P.S. Ok, you know what? I was reading back some more, and it seems I was making the Mac/double-lynch thing into more of an issue than I should have, since Mac basically ended up agreeing, at the end of the Day, that it wasn't worth it. Sorry.

[Gollum the Great]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Can we expect to hear your opinions on him later?

Yes. I was just tired after my research and in no mood to say much.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, so I know this is the lamest excuse ever, but I had a really shiny post (full analysis of all players complete with some lyrics to describe my opinion of them) and it got eaten. I'm terribly sorry, but I'm not doing it again, at least not toDay.

For now, please accept my humble offering of a suspicion list and let me get to sleep.


Suspicious:
Mac
Gollum
Cailin/Eomer

In the middle/no idea/need to look at again to remember what I thought:
Shasta
Gwath
Lari
Kath

Innocent:
Boro
Agan

Again, my sincerest apologies. I'll explain my reasons for suspecting the three I've named in the morning, assuming that I get up on time. If not, even more apologies and a promise to make another post toMorrow should I survive. Gah. It's been a heck of a day and I feel like a slacker. Sorry, guys.

*toddles off for bed*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

For what seems the 800th time I got distracted or something and didn't post what I typed up. I'm not holding up to my obligations to this game very well. I'll try to finish this analysis quick.

It's just that I made an enormous Mac analysis yesterday.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I didn't know your exact role, nor really your innocence, I was just going to give you a good defense today.

Aww thanks.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Mac's persistent support of a double-lynch yesterDay seems odd to me, given the disastrous consequences of the previous double-lynch. I realize that tgwbs had listed both Fea and Aganzir under "most guilty," but I don't think that would have been enough reason to lynch both. The potential pay-off did not outweigh the potential negative consequences.

Now you're quick to change your mind Gwath. Yesterday after Gollum had said it was a risk worth taking you ended up voting for me.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Aganzir - how does your soulmate-vengeance-kill work exactly?

Ah it is a crime of passion. I can kill anyone, even the divo... Which is why I'm not entirely comfortable with my role because with my luck the person I decide to kill is indeed xem. And I can kill whenever I want, but only once.
I don't care how openly I speak about my kill as it's most likely committed during this day anyway, which means the critics are probably going to scare me to death in the night.

Originally Posted by Gwath

it seems I was making the Mac/double-lynch thing into more of an issue than I should have, since Mac basically ended up agreeing, at the end of the Day, that it wasn't worth it.

Only after I had made a really big show that the critics would have been the only ones who had benefited from a double lynch. I think he voted Fea in the end only because there was no chance he could get us double lynched, though.

[Cailín]

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf (I remember an occasion with our lovely TGWBS and me wasting my Ranger powers defending his lycantropic skin every night) and we are all so easily won.

I have no intention to take the phantom's proposed leap of faith here.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

I hadn't thought of it that way before.

[Gwathagor]

I'm sorry, I have to vote pretty early.

++Sally

Potential cobbler maybe, but it's more or less a random vote.

[Aganzir]

Grr now I can't go to eat yet because I have to reply to this!

Originally Posted by Cailín

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do --- However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

It didn't occur to you that I might not have opposed a double lynch so much had I not been a gifted? I understood perfectly well that I wouldn't have been able to prove my innocence if I had been ordo, and I would have been lynched today anyway.
Also, it's twisting the truth to claim that lynching me today would have wasted time to find the critics. The only thing that would have wasted time would have been to automatically assume that I was a wolf and interpret everything in that light today. I dare guess you wouldn't have concentrated only on me today anyway, although that's certainly what the wolves would have tried to do.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour...

It occurred to me as well, but I'm not sure if I agree. Because there was a chance tgwbs hadn't dreamed of either of us.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Gwath said to phantom that he shouldn't assume he had been dreamed of. Back then I thought it could be a seer hint but didn't pursue the idea further as there seemed to be no reason later. He also warned phantom about assuming that ordos try to get killed instead of gifteds.

He said to Fea that ignoring her was the best thing we could do until she stopped confusing us and started actually playing. Nog accused him based on this, saying he was too eager to show he was a decent player himself. I still don't quite agree with Nog, and I think Gwath's response was reasonable ("Nogrod attempts to make himself look good by accusing me of trying to make myself look good.").

Gwath was suspicious of Nog for his case against him but said he wouldn't vote him yet (which he did, after all), and Lari who, in his opinion, didn't say anything. He said he would need more time to decide if it was just natural lack of confidence or something more sinister. 'Something more sinister' is a phrase that always tips me off. There's just something so wolfish in it.
He had noticed Nog's divo comment but assumed it was a joke. Someone brought up a point that innocents should have been careful about lynching Nog after that, but I can hardly blame him, voting for Nog myself too.

On day 2 Gwath defended himself against Mac, who had called his vote careless, by saying their votes weren't very different in terms of context and consequences, and that Mac had actually less reasons to vote for Menel than Gwath had for Nog. I agree with this, but on the other hand I'm still rather suspicious of Mac. I don't think they're both wolves.

Gwath responded reasonably to Boro's statement that he & Nog's argument had been over semantics ie meaningless crap.
He was a bit suspicious of sally and didn't like the Gollum votes. He voted for sally but crossed with deadline.

Okay on to day 3... Gwath voiced the obvious ie we should seriously consider lynching the people the seer suspected the most. He pointed out tgwbs had said most guilty instead of most suspicious, but as Boro already said different people have different ways to phrase things. If I label people either as Guilty, Innocent or Neither, I don't seriously mean that half the people don't have a role.
If he was Fea's fellow critic, I'm not sure he would have brought up more points against her. However we probably shouldn't pay much attention to who were all for lynching Fea and who were wavering since I'm rather sure the wolves just decided to sacrifice her.

Gwath thought I deserved as much attention as Fea but that we shouldn't double lynch us, seeing what happened last time. However here the situation was somewhat different. On day 1 the double lynch was an accident and there was no spectacular evidence against either lynchee, whereas here we were the main suspects of the seer. Therefore an innocent would probably have thought that the risk of a catastrophical double lynch was considerably smaller than on day 1.

Did the wolves have any inkling as to who the cobbler is? If they did, they were probably for a double lynching of Fea and me yesterday. But if they didn't and eg thought I was the cobbler (since I was listed as equally guilty as Fea), I think they would have been against it.

Gwath agreed with Gollum once he had asked why not double lynch us. I don't like it very much because now, had we been double lynched, he could have accused Gollum of making him believe it was a good idea.
He also said he hadn't said we should kill us both, just that we should seriously consider doing so as there was still a chance tgwbs hadn't dreamed of either. While it is possible he tried to defend his fellow (which would have been quite useless at that point though), it makes me feel better about him. A wolf would probably have gone after us both so as to minimize their losses.
He ended up voting for me.

When Fea retracted and voted herself, Gwath thought it looked suspicious and said it really looked like Fea didn't want a double lynch. I don't think his reaction is very suspicious.

Today Gwath thought Mac's support of double lynch seemed odd given the consequences of the previous double lynch. Rather hypocritical. Yesterday Gwath himself was ready to lynch us both. I don't like the way he turns against Mac now.

**

As for interaction between Gwath and Fea, on day 1 she quoted him and told who her favourite movie villain is. She also said Gwath should be lynched instead of her for forgetting that the point of the game is to amuse Mith, which Fea was doing. But this was Fea's list with meta-reasons.

When Nog accused Gwath of overreacting to suspicions, Fea vaguely defended him, saying innocents tend to get more irritated of being unjustly suspected. She added, though, that in her opinion wolves become hostile over little suspicions whereas ordos react to major ones. So in the end she seemed to reach no conclusion about Gwath and both defended and accused him within a few sentences. Gwath was also on her list of possible voting candidates.

On day 2 Fea put Gwath in her Concerned category along with Boro and Ilya, both of whom probably innocent, and said she intended to vote for him. I wonder if she had treated a fellow like that on day 2 as he wasn't *that* suspected. In the end she voted Ilya though, saying she didn't have time to substantiate any arguments against Gwath.

**

I would be rather willing to assume that either Mac or Gwath is a critic. Of those Mac looks more suspicious to me right now, but if one dies and turns out to be innocent, the other deserves to be looked at closely. I don't think they both are wolves, though. The interaction between them and Fea together doesn't look that wolfish.

edit: xed with Cailín & two Gwaths

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mac, it's also possible the wolves wanted to encourage suspicions against an innocent sally when killing Brinn.

True. In that case the wolves killed somebody who looked innocent and left no clues towards them. This raises the question: Boro looks even more innocent and has the higher werewolf reputation. Why not him instead? Even if he is the cobbler, the critics knew that Aganzir is innocent and not dreamt of. Boro would be the next best guess at a seer dream. Why were they not eager to finish off a soon-to-be quasi-known innocent? Brinniel might have had some ideas, but did not really pose an immediate threat. Did the critics think Boro is the divo or did they fear Boro's death because he was too right and they hoped while alive he might still change his mind? I need to have a look at him.

Originally Posted by Gollum

You are getting harder and harder to understand, Mac!

I know, I feel the same about myself.

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Only after I had made a really big show that the critics would have been the only ones who had benefited from a double lynch. I think he voted Fea in the end only because there was no chance he could get us double lynched, though.

Despite all the pressure that was on you all day you did not do anything that was actually suspicious. That's why, in the end, I decided it was worth doubting you for another day. Other than that, I agree with Cailineomer:

Originally Posted by Cailineomer

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

Rikae just told me, if you have no idea who a critic is, lynch an idiot. I better get myself some ideas soon...

Gwath is still eyebrow-raising, though. He and Sally are not wolves together - his vote pretty much fixes that now.


Aganzir: it would be best to make up your mind before all the votes go around, so that we're not voting for dead people.


PS: Sally, I usually write my posts in Word and copy them into the editor only to edit the tags in. If my browser eats a post, I always still have the original.

xed with Aganzir's Gwathalysis and everything after.

[satansaloser2005]

PS: Sally, I usually write my posts in Word and copy them into the editor only to edit the tags in. If my browser eats a post, I always still have the original.

Thanks for the tip, love. Unfortunately, it was my entire computer that crashed, not the internet.



Okay, so I'm at work but they told me I'm not really working until 11 (it's a bit after 9) so I'm on the computer there and will do my best to work up some posts. Just give me a couple minutes to get settled and I'll be back.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Did the critics think Boro is the divo or did they fear Boro's death because he was too right and they hoped while alive he might still change his mind? I need to have a look at him.

Possible. Or then they want to force us to lynch him just to check him out.

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae just told me, if you have no idea who a critic is, lynch an idiot. I better get myself some ideas soon...

And who would she suggest?

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir: it would be best to make up your mind before all the votes go around, so that we're not voting for dead people.

Ah planning to vote yourself?
Right now I think it's going to be either Cailín or Mac, although I'm considering also Gwath. I could of course take someone I have no idea about, like Shasta or Gollum, but currently I'm not inclined to do so.

By the way, I wonder if the diva/divo should start to think about revealing at some point. As the cobbler is still alive it's possible the critics already know xer identity, and I wouldn't mind knowing that the person I kill is not the diva/o. Plus I think we could do with a known innocent.

Cailín, you were talking about how the situation would have looked if I had been an ordo, and that's what I replied to. I fail to see what your response has to do with mine.

If you are not twisting the truth, yours is different from mine (hmm I wonder if this makes you a baddie ). We have Fea and her interaction with others, which, I admit, don't provide us with much information though. We can make analyses that help us later even if we lynch an innocent. Etc. So no, I don't think only lynching matters.