T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Beregond

Although you seem to indicate that Rikae knew about both Mac and Nerwen - I didn't think the seer would know of more than one player at a time?

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

I don't know that Rikae was so obvious.
Indeed from her statements, if she were the seer, it seems she suspected Mac day 1, didn't want to vote him off until last night when she dreamed of him, and now is revealing his identity.

But like you say it could be a red herring, or just in fun. Still, if that is true it's a strange statement as it doesn't help innocents much, does it?

[Thinlómien]

Okay now this is surely interesting... I was looking at Rikae's words in disbelief - because, would a seer reveal in that manner? I mean, I would assume Barliman to make a bigger show of himself, but on the other hand, I think Rikae has been making "by the way" statements like this before... which would make me inclined to believe her claim.

Oh, holy cow, I just realised something. Rikae is either the seer or then she's a really twisted person with an ingenious plot, but I'm not sure if I should explain that plot of hers aloud, because I might do something horrible if I draw her plans out in the open...

Anyway, I'd like to her more from Rikae before talking much more. I don't know if talking about her makes sense before she comes back. I'm torn, I cannot decide which one is more believable, my horrid scenario or her really being the seer (logically, I'd love to trust her but since coming up with the scenario, I cannot get it out of my mind), and of course the possibility remains she's just joking...

So I'll talk about something else for a while..

Mac, I'm offended. I'm not timid! I'm really not. I grant you that I overreact to suspicion against me when I'm a wolf and thus might be inclined to make safe kills, yes, but decent packmates would keep me from making such mistakes (you can see this if you compare my behaviour in the game where I was wolves with xyzzy and in the one I was wolves with tp). Also, I would put myself to the sportsmanship category. *grumblegrumble* Okay, that was maybe a slightly unnecessary personal rant but I felt mischaracterised.

But really what's all this "Noggie would have killed Shasta" stuff? Why Shasta? Why not someone else silentish by that logic? And more importantly, like Nog himself said, I think he'd be really stupid to do that after the few last games. I still think Shasta was killed because of looking like a seer (and that theory does not exonerate Nog, of course, unlike the safe-kill theory almost would).

I hope Rikae comes back soon.


edit: xed with 2xAgan, 1xBrinn & 1xFea

[Macalaure]

Rikae is most probably joking because nobody's paying attention to her. Or maybe she's Bill, but I don't think so. It might be interesting to see the reactions to her claim, just as long as the real seer doesn't lose his nerves - or people get the idea to trust her and lynch me!

Originally Posted by Rune

An easier way?

Of course. Voting one of the two (or the one) who was ahead of Gollum and not a wraith.

Originally Posted by Rune

and who is it who has a bigger name than Gollum? (You, Brinn or Lommy?)

Ok, it was maybe not nice of me to say that. It's true, however, that people have built up reputations in all the games they've played, and that people often shy away from lynching someone with a higher reputation, if only by the number of games played, when they have no real reason to. All of us three have played more games than Gollum and had more successes (more defeats, too, but those are usually forgotten quickly).

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I didn't want to vote for you on day 1 after last game. It would have felt way too unfair. Especially if you're innocent.
Another reason was that my brain wasn't working properly anymore. I just couldn't think of anything and thought, all the same, I don't care, ++Lari.

I'll buy that - for now. Firstly, because I don't want to be ungrateful, second, because it looks honest enough. Your brain must've really shut down if it wasn't able to come up with anything anymore, though.


---crossed since Aganzir

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae is most probably joking because nobody's paying attention to her.

WHAT?!? What kind of explanation is that?? And Mac, that's the second wolf slip from you, so I'm really baffled. "Is most probably joking"? Mac, if you were innocent, you'd know she was joking... Ok, granted, you make an addition about Ferny, but all in all, that was awfully carelessly wolvishly phrased.

Whether Rikae is joking or not (or actually even if my horrid scenario is true), I think lynching Mac wouldn't be a bad option.


edit: xed with Brinn

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Beregond: How many nicknames does this poor guy have? I see some newbie-ish behaviour, but overall I think he's doing well for his first game. And I certainly won't underestimate the possibility of a newbie being a wraith.

I've lost count. Thank you! I feel terribly newbie-ish.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Rikae is most probably joking because nobody's paying attention to her. Or maybe she's Bill, but I don't think so. It might be interesting to see the reactions to her claim, just as long as the real seer doesn't lose his nerves - or people get the idea to trust her and lynch me!

I would, of course, expect you to deny the validity of it, were you a wraith or no. But we have been paying attention to her! Maybe we shouldn't; it could be a joke. But everything in this game can get analyzed. Joke or not, Rikae's assertion bears discussion.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But really what's all this "Noggie would have killed Shasta" stuff?

Well it was a thing that occurred to me, just because Shasta has been quiet in recent games. I wouldn't have used it as a reason for suspicion if I hadn't been suspicious of him for other reasons.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Your brain must've really shut down if it wasn't able to come up with anything anymore, though.

It was. It was ages since I had had a chance to sleep properly and wake up when I wanted instead of when the alarm clock told me to as I had to wake up early on both Saturday and Sunday last weekend. Add to that several nights of 6-7 hours of sleep, which is way too little for me. I went to take a shower and when I came back I realised I couldn't think properly anymore.

Okay I got distracted for a while. *goes to read what's been posted in the meanwhile*

Originally Posted by Rikae

Carrots and potatoes clearly indicate... whoever's name Berry Ferny sent to the little green wraith... only trouble is, who would that be...

Fea is a gardener.

Originally Posted by Nog

I must say I was kind of disappointed to hear Rikae gave in so fast...

Me too, although I can understand it if she was afraid of flushing out the real seer. That seems unlikely, though, given that it's only day 2, and if the wraiths have taken Rikae seriously, they'll kill her soon.

I wouldn't like to stay up terribly late today, either, so I'm probably voting in a few hours. However now I could pick a person from my Neither list and go through xyr posts.

[Rikae]

I was joking, but I won't say I wasn't well aware somebody might make something of it, and I thought what they made of it might be useful.
Mac, I've tested you three times now, and you've earned my trust. If you're a baddie, kudos.
Lommy, if you mean what I think you mean, that's just a back up plan. Read a little further. There's also another one.
As an ordo, I want to die during the night to protect the gifteds, and I also want to do what I can to trick wolves into giving themselves away. Nothing special there, really.

Now, on to making that list I promised.

EDIT: And X'd with the whole page again.

[Aganzir]

Brinn started by complaining about IC posting. I find it understandable - only a few people had made lots of IC posts and there was nothing of substance yet. It's okay if everyone makes a few of them, but three people filling a page with them merits some complaint.

She might have overreacted a bit to being suspected because of her first post, but I find her reaction rather innocentish. And Rune was certainly unnecessarily evil to her.

Her opinion on Frodo is contrary to that of a loud majority but I can understand her. Yeah, of course it would be easiest for us if Frodo just came out and said Hi, here I am! but it doesn't seem fair to ask xem to do it. But it would also make it more boring. At least I would much rather figure xem out based on xyr posts than see xem reveal. It's more entertaining.
I can see why some people think she's giving hints to Frodo, but I think too much along the same lines with her to agree with them. Yeah of course it's possible, but it's also possible Brinn is just being fair.
Okay she did talk about Frodo quite a lot though.

Out of Mac, Lommy and Gollum she found Gollum the most suspicious. It's hard to say anything yet, given that Lommy's & Mac's roles are still unknown. I wasn't very suspicious of Golly but didn't like his lack of substance that much either, so I can well understand why some people wanted to lynch him.

She thought Shasta was killed because of leaving no trails. While this is possible, I find it likely that the wolves also thought he was either the seer of Frodo.

She made a list of people in #277. I mostly agree with it, except that I'm not worried about Greenie. Her posts are usually well-thought out, but I don't think she was suspiciously careful.

Brinn didn't find Rikae's seer comment serious, but found everyone's reactions to it odd. What exactly do you mean by that, Brinn? How were they odd?

She said she couldn't see what benefit could come from Fea pretending Rikae was serious. I can. If Fea had a reason to assume Rikae was joking, it would have been sensible to help set her up as a wolf kill. Of course there was a risk of the real seer revealing, though, which I think is why it wasn't pursued further.
And of course Rikae can be the real seer now and she's just trying to get the baddies off track. They can never know, unless she is one of them.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now this is one option I don't get. If there's any possibility she actually is the seer, why would you spotlight it and further risk the chances of her getting killed?

Or help by misguiding the wolves to assume she isn't the seer? Anything's possible.

I think Brinn looks rather innocent in general. Her points are mostly sensible, and while I agree that she was rather tense on day 1, it seems to be more due to RL stuff. She's been much more relaxed later.

edit: xed with two Lommys