What if Saruman had repented at Orthanc ?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I believe there is one very important thing to note in this debate. Inziladun, with all due respect, I consider your answer here not completely appropriate. "Could have been trusted" - well, what does that mean? By whom? That's the point. By the reader? Well, that depends, likely not. But we are talking about the others. By Gandalf? I daresay: yes. By the Rohirrim? Well, that does not sound too good. By some Gimli? Likely not. There would have been a conflict, Gandalf would certainly dare to trust him, if he believed that Saruman has truly turned away from his past deeds. But even then, he could not gloriously ride back to Edoras "look, we have a new strong ally!" Saruman would have been shot to death by some angry Rohirrim, or killed in a similar way like in Bag End, just a while earlier.

When I said I didn't believe Saruman could have been trusted, I meant that I did not believe his repentance could be permanent and he would have fallen into his old thoughts and desires, for the reasons I stated. I was not speculating on who would have been likely to give him a chance and take him at his word.
As you say, Gandalf would have, and said as much after the breaking of Saruman's staff. I was simply opining that doing so would have been unwise.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

When I said didn't believe Saruman could have been trusted, I meant that I did not believe his repentance could be permanent and he would have fallen into his old thoughts and desires, for the reasons I stated. I was not speculating on who would have been likely to give him a chance and take him at his word.
As you say, Gandalf would have, and said as much after the breaking of Saruman's staff. I was simply opining that doing so would have been unwise.

Yep, thanks for making it clear. I just thought this objective formulation (posed in the first post anyway) was a little unclear. All right, makes sense.

[Gordis]

WOW, Legate, what a great post! I like "what if's" so much and your scenario is excellent.

In your answer the changes to the history are minor. But you see, IMO, you displace one straw and the whole pile may collapse. For instance:

At night, a winged Nazgul flies to Orthanc [...] Gandalf is shocked, shouting the War has come and calling Shadowfax. He instructs everybody to go wherever they can and rides to Minas Tirith. [...]Merry and Pippin secretly make a plot - two silly hobbit heads work better than just one - to get into the Rohanian army.

Now Gandalf leaves alone, Pippin is left with Merry. They would try to ride with the Rohirrim, naturally sticking together. But Eowyn can carry only one hobbit on her horse. So what? Would both hobbits remain behind? Or would they find another horse to ride together?
Anyway, there would be no hobbit close enough to help Eowyn at the Pelennor. Not only would she likely get a free ride to the houses of Lamentation, but the Witch-King would remain alive and well. And here the victory of Pelennor becomes uncertain, Saruman or no Saruman.

I am not saying that all this will necessarily happen. Maybe something else will go wrong. There are so many what if's...

[The Mouth of Sauron]

Looking at all these "what if''s" , I'm beginning to think that if Saruman had repented it might have caused more trouble than it was worth !

I think that if I'd been Gandalf I'd have sent Saruman to northern Wilderland, to help the Beornings, the Elves in the Woodland Realm in Mirkwood and the Dwarves and Men around the Lonely Mountain and Esgaroth.

Sending him to attack Dol Guldur would also have been tempting but I think I agree that Galadriel and Saruman might not have got on, so getting him away from the environs of Lorien was probably a good idea.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

WOW, Legate, what a great post! I like "what if's" so much and your scenario is excellent.

Well, thank you I like "what if's" as well, that's after all why I wrote it in the first place

In your answer the changes to the history are minor. But you see, IMO, you displace one straw and the whole pile may collapse. For instance:

Now Gandalf leaves alone, Pippin is left with Merry. They would try to ride with the Rohirrim, naturally sticking together. But Eowyn can carry only one hobbit on her horse. So what? Would both hobbits remain behind? Or would they find another horse to ride together?
Anyway, there would be no hobbit close enough to help Eowyn at the Pelennor. Not only would she likely get a free ride to the houses of Lamentation, but the Witch-King would remain alive and well. And here the victory of Pelennor becomes uncertain, Saruman or no Saruman.

I am not saying that all this will necessarily happen. Maybe something else will go wrong. There are so many what if's...

Yep, I said that it is just a possibility, counting on what I consider likely and keeping the original intentions of the characters (their thinking and personalities will likely not change drastically based on Saruman's turning). As for Merry and Pippin, well, I figure that the two of them would have found a way - at most, stealing a horse for themselves or something of that sort.

It is true that one might question the very reasons for them going to war: if they were together, Merry might not get as much time to stick to Théoden, and therefore not pledge him his loyalty. Also, he will feel no need to go to war not to "stay behind" in comparison to Pippin - as Pippin will be with him, of course. Perhaps they will both stick to Aragorn and company - now that might be even more interesting, they will likely be scared to death by the Paths of the Dead, but alongside Legolas and Aragorn, they will likely keep it up.

I was, of course, stemming from the fact that Gandalf would not have the same reason to take Pippin with him as in LotR: since the Palantír will remain locked safely inside Orthanc, Pippin would not get to its proximity in the first place and thus not be tempted to look at it. Of course, one could come up with a way for Pippin to get to it (like, "tailing" the Wise ones when they would go to take a look at it, and in a very Pippin-ish way sneaking to Orthanc at night: with a funny episode of, instead of putting a stone under Gandalf's head, putting a spoon into Saruman's pocket instead of the Keys to Orthanc or something like that). In that case, the changes to the story will be really minor. But based just on mere probability, it does not seem likely.

Nevertheless, when it comes to Witch-King's defeat, it will come in the end anyway. On first thought, one thinks: all right, Éowyn might have nobody to save her, that means that she will indeed die. However, we are forgetting about one important thing. There is no Pippin to warn Gandalf about Denethor burning himself alongside Faramir - and that means also no Pippin to distract Gandalf from riding out to deal with the Witch-King!

Gandalf looked through the gaping Gate, and already on the fields he heard the gathering sound of battle. He clenched his hand. "I must go," he said. "The Black Rider is abroad, and he will yet bring ruin on us. I have no time."
"But Faramir!" cried Pippin. "He is not dead, and they will burn him alive, if someone does not stop them."

As we can see, Gandalf was reluctant to go even here - now if there was nobody to stop him, he will ride out and save Éowyn, possibly even Théoden, if he arrived on time! He might not kill the Witch-King (unless we imagine some heroic scenario of the WK, being driven away from the Rohirrim by Gandalf, chooses to descend upon the incoming ships - of course, there is some Return of the King going on! How dare they! - however, Aragorn having Saruman by his side, we might witness another "Battle of the Sorcerers", and if the WK landed aboard the ship, if Merry and Pippin were with Aragorn, perhaps we could see one Hobbit suddenly attacking WK from behind, and after the WK turns and the poor Hobbit faints from Black Breath, the other Hobbit, horrified, picks up his sword and crying "for the Shire!" stabs the Nazgul for good - with some assistance provided by Aragorn, Saruman, Legolas and/or Gimli to distract the WK from smiting the little Hobbit. Speaking of that, does Legolas or Gimli count as a "living Man"? Likely not).

So, as you see, I don't think it would be that much of a problem if neither Merry or Pippin were there. It is always questionable, but some basic things could be done, one way or the other.