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#1 | ||||||||||||||||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Lists:
Paraphrased, because you guys talk too much.
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Remember I'm looking for patterns. All of these are from Day 1 which means that two people were dreamed of (unless the White Queen gets dreams too; I hate not knowing the nature of a role), and there ought to be hints in here. Lists, as people well know, are a good way to figure out somebody's sincerity and somebody's inclinations. Be back after lunch... sugar crash again...
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peace
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#2 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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As I saw that tp had already taken the task of cleaning the game board, I have spent my day polishing you pieces. And how nicely you shine now!
![]() Okay. We really need to get that Black Queen, pronto. I don't know if there's any way or method to it as it would be really easy to hide being there alone. Well, I say look at the most agreeable people; those who are the least controversial as in a tough place one tends to not vote for the one whom s/he feels more at ease with or who rubs you the right way. And the BQ has all the chances to play like that as she shouldn't know anything more than we do. I mean the trio knows each other and may be tempted to cover each other in a tight place or anyhow take stance on people whose role they know. And that normally gives one leads into suspecting someone. But to stop this double-killing we'd need to get all the three first! ![]() So the BQ would be top on our agenda. The problem being that finding her out is more up to luck than our abilities. And meanwhile the trio gets knowledge everyNight by their bishop... Well, let's heighten our spirits a bit. Short count says that if we get all the three wolves in succesive Days beginning toDay, we're rid of the wolves and will only have one kill / Night after Day4. At that point - with no special help (eg. BQ killing one of the baddies for us, the Knight protecting someone succesfully...) we'll start Day5 with 6:1 ratio - which is not too bad. But if we miss a single baddie during the next three Days the ratio becomes pretty tight. One miss in the following Days leads to the ratio of 4:2 on the beginning of Day5! Missing the lynch then would practically mean defeat. So, summa summarum: of the next four lynches we basically have to lynch right three times. Otherwise we're dead meat (unless lady Fortuna aids us during the Nights). Unless we get the BQ... Nice scenario, isn't it? ![]() I'm trying to go back and see whether there is anything worth pointing out in posting toDay & on the votes etc. from yesterDay.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#3 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Where is everyone?
Fea, the list you listed as being listed by Fea is by Nog. ![]() Lari, what do you mean, you shouldn't defend your vote? Seriously, people, we all need to talk. Back in a bit with something (hopefully) more helpful. |
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#4 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Ah, but another thought:
Not sure why Nog is bemoaning the bleakness of the scenario like that. After all, the wolves and werebear could very well kill each other, the WQ may be able to kill them, and the ranger's chances of stopping a kill go up every night. I would say it's extremely unlikely that no baddies will die by night in the next 3 days and they will manage to kill two innocents per night... at any rate, there are simply too many variables to predict the state of things on day 5. ![]() EDIT: X'd with Noggie. A pretty far-fetched theory, and one that might help the evil side. I doubt Shasta would fail to make it clear, in that case, which role was responsible for which kill. |
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#5 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Looking at the kills this far... Quote:
Okay. Like I said, this is just an idea and we might need to revisit it on later Days if trying to figure out the reasoning behind the kills will give us problems but right now I'm not sure this merits too much pondering as it's immeadiate helpfulness toDay is doubtful. EDIT: * and the killed piece seems to have been way out from it's initial position everytime someone has been killed...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#6 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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If Phantom was sweeping, and Nog was polishing - then I was staring off into space pretending to do whatever task I was supposed to be doing. xD
That is clever. At first look, the position notations seem to be close to gibberish to me. I don't think Shasta could quite keep it perfectly accurate every time. Since each piece can only move in a certain way, by technicality. So, in theory - wouldn't he make it as accurate as possible. So in the killing blows, the move to take the piece was akin to that of its moving constraint? X'd with Wilwa
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#7 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I took a closer look at Izzy...
Post #26 – Banter #79 – Explaining Hansy #89 – Jokes with tp, argues against discussing white queen's role: “In reality, what good would it be to in-depthly theorize about what the White Queen may or may not be able to do? We won't know (I assume) until the game is over. So, what kind of help is that going to lend us; when dealing with the evilies that we do know about?” Probably more good than Izzy is doing at this point, I reckon. #95 more joking with tp #133 Doesn't want to vote randomly, although she otherwise would, because “it feels too much like bandwagoning” with so many others doing it. I don't like this. It could very easily mean “it looks too much like bandwagoning – those who did it are getting pressure, and I want to play it safe” A lot of descriptions of what's been going on, with no substantial commentary. Repeats my question about the cobbler, for no apparent reason. Also creepy – a bit “hey! Cobbler! Over here!”. A lot of agreeing with (no offense, Gwath and Mnemi) pretty empty statements about looking for the wolves and bear... then goes after Mnemi for bringing it up: “I have a question Mnemosyne. If dwelling too much on The White Queen would be baddie like behavior, or giving them ideas. Well what is bringing back up a topic from two pages ago? Wouldn't that be in the same realm?” Says Hansy's ideas are not outlandish. I assume you mean the bit about cheating? Hmph. #141 – Gwath is worrying her with short posts (note, this is after he has received his first vote and some suspicion). Backs off Mnemi. Now the really weird part: instead of listing suspects and presumed innocents, she lists people who “stick out in” her mind. The reasons she gives are strange, too – me, Nog, Phantom, Fea and Sally for our usual behavior (is this an attempt to insinuate that we're suspicious because of our “usual behavior” without saying so, or what?) and Hansy, Mnemi and Gwath – only the latter two because she suspects them, though. #146 More going after Gwath for short posts and banter. #175 Explaining self to Nerwen #196 Doesn't find Fea suspicious. Votes Gwath, saying: “I am going to stick with my earlier doubts. It may be your style, which I can't blame you for. I had a brief chance to try and sift through your past games - and only had time to quickly go through your most recent one's first Day. You seemed to be a bit more aggressive in it, than you are here. What that says, not entirely sure. I'd rather vote for one I've got doubts on, than leave it to a toss of a die.” #206 Vote count #214 Minor comments Conclusion: Bad. Wolf. Bad. Wolf. EDIT: X'd with Wilwa and Izzy. |
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#8 |
Beloved Shadow
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*phew*
Polishing the game board is hard work. But it's looking nice and shiny now, so I can finally take a proper look back at the previous moves and give my take on the vote, why the kills were made, who Nerwen might've been hunting, etc. Don't expect a post extremely soon though. I'm just now starting my reading.
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
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#9 |
Animated Skeleton
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 34
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fragmented post
Okay, after reading Day 1 up to my last post, I think that, had I done it earlier, I would've probably voted for Sally. She's done basically the same as last game - besides that, instead of disappearing after the banter, she vaguely comments stuff that has been discussed already - thus adding nothing useful, maybe trying to look good. That's mostly post #73.
I think Nogrod is evil. I don't quite know why I feel that way; I'll look him again, trying to find it out. The Fea/Nogrod case; she was seeing clues in her own post before Nogrod had said anything (excluding his pretty Alice quote - could that be taken as a hint itself? I have no idea). So, she was at least prone to think there was something hidden, Nogrod happened to answer her back, the character is called "Han Solo" itself, pretty convenient for an hint... but there's more to that. You'll notice Fea was herself making more and more questions, just like if she wanted to get more "evidence" against me. So, what is this about? I claim she plotted the whole thing from the beginning, to incriminate me. But why me? I should be just a silly newbie. The thing is, I was a last resort solution. Because she wanted to incriminate Lommy. But she isn't playing. So, she thought, why waste such a brilliant plan to break havoc in the game? And it happened. Of course, all that tells us is that Fea is an evil mastermind. It says nothing about her alignment in this game - and I'm tempted to believe she's most probably innocent. But that leads us to another funny subject, "Save Fea!" Most of you shall know this business better, but here's the pattern I noticed: 1. Fea acts suspiciously and puts herself in line for execution. 2. Fea's fan club panics and focus on a random lynch to save Fea from being executed. 3. The random lynchee turns out innocent. Now Fea may, or may not, be in even more danger. So, it's not really efficient. ![]() Making lists is a hard work. I discovered that while trying to make one, during the Night. Well, you can have this: Likely innocent: Lari, Fea, Rikae, Isa, Brinn (although she doesn't count because it seems she will always look innocent). Likely evil: Sally, Nog, Mira, Eonwe I have no idea: Durelin, Kath, TP, Nemo ---- that's all for now, going off for dinner. ![]() (crossed since Nog's post 586330, probably there's a whole new page already) |
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#10 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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The last time I went and defended my vote it backfired horribly. And I also had to explain it so many times so I thought I would do it once and be done with it.
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I'm not saying Fea couldn't have done this, but it just seems...highly unlikely. I can't really see her doing this. And your argument doesn't feel right to me. It seems really skiddish. I think I might take a closer look at Hansy, or do so in a list that I will be writing. Edit: x-posted with Nog.
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Choose treachery, its more fun!
Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-23-2009 at 03:41 PM. Reason: x-posting |
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#11 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Have you seen Steve's (Eönwë's) post in the admin thread?
I suggest we leave him be at least toDay - and if he happens to be a baddie we scorn him for the rest of his life for free-riding in an immoral fashion... ![]() *I just realised that I had left a few pieces unpolished... back soon* Okay, then for something completely different. I'm still uneasy with Fea. Then again I'm also thinking she's most probably the Black Pawn and thence I'm not too sure we should waste a lynch on her if we have any decent option of lynching an actual killer-baddie. Let me make my point in short one more time as it seems many people just don't get it. So she makes that little and totally unconnected remark in her voting post saying I have "a way of saying interesting things on Day One" which follows after her telling she's in no mood to be nice to newbies (as a reason for her vote for Hansy). Then after being questioned why she said that, she admits that she made the remark because she thought I was the seer. Now why would an innocent go on making such a statement if she had a feeling someone was the seer? She has never answered this - and I can't see why any decent innocent would act like that in the first place. Especially if she thought that I had the most valuable information of all eg. knowing the identity of the BQ which was part of her explanation?!!! But what kind of bothers me the most right now is her post toDay about it. Quote:
a) did she really have that thought out well before making the statement or is this invented afterwards (as her previous answer seemed to be in the crucial respects)? b) and even more importantly: why did she make that original point about her thinking me to be the seer if she had to have millions of cover-plans for it if someone who shouldn't notice it would notice it? What was the rationale for it? No innocent would say that aloud even if she thought that. A cobbler might wish to point out a possible seer to the baddies. The motivation and the way she carries this through points neatly toward cobblerism. A Black Queen wishing to point to the baddies who to kill / whom she will try to kill the coming Night then? In that case either the trio didn't get the hint or... and here we come to this possibility of the WQ being on action toNight... so maybe Fea really tried to kill me but the ranger covered me - and thus Eomer was killed by the WQ (it was a Q who took Eomer last Night but the table didn't tell us whether it was Black or White Queen who did it...)? In that case I'll be dead meat toMorrow. Baddies seldom leave an opportunity to kill someone without a danger of being distracted by the ranger unused if they have been frustrated once by her/him. The likelihood of these scenarios is quite clear to me. So Fea is up to no good but I can't see a believable scenario for her to be a member of the trio. The possibility of her being the BQ doesn't look too good either but is clearly better than the previous one. But her actions fit very nicely to her being the cobbler. So she's a cobbler then. QED ![]() Which means I should find someone else to vote for toDay as we can't afford yet another mislynch. EDIT: Because of the extra polishing-job I seem to have X'd with a host of posts...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#12 | |||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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![]() I intended to feel out the validity of my suspicion of your role, and to give an explanation for my vote of a newbie, when it's common practice to give noobs the benefit of the doubt on day one. I was in a foul mood and I noticed what you'd said. Why forgo a chance to kill off the Black Queen, and why wouldn't a player try to learn who the seer is? As I said, once you reacted the way you did, I knew no prudent seer would be that much of a blowhard (no offense, please, you know I adore you) in response to something so mundane. I tire of this. You're being like a dog with a bone, Nog. Let it go. Quote:
Then I'd like to say, "I agree with the rest." While I'm pleased I'm not dead, games are no fun if they are based on favoritism instead of on suspicion. The phantom is right when he says I would never hesitate to kill him if I thought it would suit my plans, and it's common knowledge that he's a buddy of mine. Please don't let your adoration of my wonderful self mess with the integrity of the beauty that is stabbing your closest internet pals in the back. ![]() Now that I've finally caught up... Seriously, that just took me hours.
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peace
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#13 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Right. How come half of the quotes are from me...
![]() Now c'mon and play a bit more openly people! Everyone just lurking at the corners and avoiding attention will give us only lotteries in the end of the Day instead of a decent possibility to find out the baddies by looking at what people really think - or want us think they think. Like Rikae said: discussion, please!
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#14 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I'm not sure if we should dwell too much on this but I got an idea while having a cigarette I think should be voiced as well so that everyone's aware of the possibility.
So two people died last Night. The one killed by the BQ and the other by the wolf team. Or is it so? Maybe this time, but maybe not every Night? Looking at the disadvantage of the village from the beginning I have somehow thought all the time that the role of the WQ will involve an ability to do personal kills at Night as well. It would be a double-edged sword and some would use it very sparingly - but then others... I happen to remember my own game a long time back where Anguirel had this special Night-killing ability and he killed someone every Night of the game and finally championed the good ones to victory killing more baddies singlehanded than the village did with their lynches... So looking at motives behind the kills last Night and further down the road should probably include an "baddie-motive-error-factor" - like later in the game if someone tries to fit the kills together and doesn't seem to get the pieces in order it might be that our WQ has something to do with them and not only the baddies... Okay, now back to the data...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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