Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Well, that sucks. Sorry, I was all ready to do an analysis of Hansy but when my computer crashed it must not have saved the posts I'd multi-quoted. My apologies, because now my post'll probably be semi-close to the deadline. Suffice to say I'm considering voting Hansy, just so it doesn't come as a surprise. Other than that though, I'll just see how things go. I don't want a repeat of yesterDay.


Back soon with an analysis.

[Mnemosyne]

40 minutes till and I'm still oblivious...

Confusticate all these people and their bebothered lists!

Went through the posts of those whose I hadn't gone through yet, and am still finding next to nothing, even as more and more people (thanks, btw!) give me something to work off of!

I have to agree that Durelin's 180-comment looks odd, since Brin did leave enough evidence in posts beforehand that she found Gwath suspicious.

Hansy doesn't look as helpful as he had used to, though I looked at all his posts out of context which meant I suffered from the full force of all that rules and strategy spec.

I find it fascinating how people are either totally for Izzy or totally against. I don't want to join one camp or the other!

But it is odd that so many people apparently independently all decided to vote for her.

I'm still going to leave Nog alone as his reasoning still sounded so sound. But now (and if you've read my posts at all this Day, you'll see how much I've been wavering!) I may have to look into the cases of those who have voted for her so far.

Maybe everyone else is picking up on something I'm not picking up on. But using my shoddy boil-everything-down statistical reasoning at least one baddie has voted for her already.

[Isabellkya]

There seems to be a wind coming from somewhere in this place, and it keeps knocking me to the ground - making it very hard to reexamine some of these pieces.
So, I shall try to make my vote in the next few minutes - so as I don't miss the chance completely if I'm not able to get up again.

I think I'm still at debating between Sally, Kath and Lariren - from what I've got written down here amongst my notes.

Pah, you strange wind!


X'd with Brin.

[Mirandir]

Everything's based on toDay's posts, since I really don't have time to go through yesterDay's as well.

the phantom - Said it before and I'll say it again - not voting him or Fea this early in the game. ToMorrow however, fair game.

Wilwa - Didn't see much of him toDay, but what there was wasn't suspicious.

Lari - Defends her vote and makes vote analysis, but nothing suspicious looking.

Fea - see the phantom. Also paraphrases things that some of us are too lazy to read all the way through ourselves.

Izzy - Lots of analysis; if we were playing the "analysis = evil" game she'd be up there.

Rikae - Vote analysis of last night, looked at Izzy and found her guilty. Could be a wolf throwing another wolf under the bus to cast suspicion off herself.

Kath - Need to hear more from. Her few analyses were pretty epic though.

Hansy - Same feelings as yesterDay, but don't have much more to go on toDay

Sally - Not much from her toDay (I think) but what there was didn't strike me as

Nog - Oodles and oodles of analysis, but that's pretty normal for him.

Mnem - Same as Izzy

Durelin - Need to hear more from.

Brinn - Wasn't around much toDay.

Steve - Was sick and thus won't hold not being around against him.

SO. Based on the "analysis = evil" game [b]Nog, Izzy[b], and Mnem are at the top of the list. And as much as I hate playing that game, chances are I'll end up voting for one of them for lack of better candidates.

[the phantom]

Okay, I'm back now.

Does anyone have a vote tally?

[Brinniel]

Wilwa ++Mnem
Nog ++Izzy
Kath ++Izzy (2)
Hansy ++Nog
Rikae ++Izzy (3)
Fea ++Izzy (4)
Lari ++Hansy

[the phantom]

And now, I shall attempt to predict the Night 3 events...

The Werewolves (Lari, Izzy, and Wilwa obviously) will use their kill on Nogrod, who is the White Queen. Attacking the White Queen means that you must sacrifice one of your pieces, so both sides lose someone.

The Black Queen, Rikae, attacks Kath, the White Bishop. But fortunately for her she is saved by Brin, the White Knight.

The Black Rook chooses to hunt Fea because she suspects that she is the second White Bishop that we weren't told about, and the Black Knight protects me, because after the Black Bishop dreamed of me on Night 1 it was revealed that I am the secret Fourth Werewolf (the Black King).

Now we just see if I'm right. Bets can be placed at your local Werewolf Sports Bar.

[satansaloser2005]

All quotes by Hansy. Oh, and I speak of the chess pieces by their piece gender; whether I refer to them as male or female holds no hint as to who I think is in that particular role. Also, I'm talking about the Black Queen whenever I mention the Queen unless otherwise stated. Thanks for tuning in.


ETA: You're welcome to skip this post until later, as I know it's really close to the deadline. Again, apologies.

Erm. Hello. Nice to know you all, besides those I knew already. [Sally doesn't know me. But I know her... well, her name.]
I'm taking hours writing this post. This is so wrong.

Yes. Because that's not at all awkward. Heh. Moving on....

*deep breath*

I can start by introducing myself. You can call me Hansy... it's not that long so it doesn't need to be shortened. Reminds me of what you did to poor Beregond last game. I read the books some time ago. They were fun, but too long to be true. So I don't remember most of it. I liked Aragorn and Legolas (yay I'm so creative!). And I like kittens. You probably figured that out after seeing my avatar.

About the werewolf... well, this is quite a different experience. I took my time reading the previous game... [I skipped Sally's spam show] and I would always agree with Legate. The guy that apparently was wrong all the time. But I liked his reasoning. I hope you'll forgive me, but I don't think I'll bold names... unless I start writing bigger-than-huge posts and it gets really hard to read. Which I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon.

Now let's talk about roles. Hi Nerwen.

[Random Comment 3: Well, at least this time people aren't roleplaying. I just can't do that.]
[Random Comment 4: The icons below the textbox strangely remind me of Zelda.]

Where are random comments one and two? Sorry, I'm weird like that. Okay, so he tells us a bit about himself, comments on the last game (of which he missed all the important posts, I'd like to point out *sulks* so yeah....kill him just for that hehe) and otherwise nothing really of consequence.

Oh, and there's more. They have a Ranger, so there's always one element on the team immune to the Black Queen attacks. The Black Bishop can dream of her, leave some clues and basically blackmail them into helping the team's job. If by any chance they're attacked by the Queen, she is as good as dead, and they can just attack her back - and if she happens to kill the Hunter, he will probably be hunting her, and kill her.

Now, one question for the host. If the Black Bishop dreams of the Black Pawn, will it turn like a Black Pawn? Or instead, like a White Pawn?

Talking about the giftedness of the evil team. Just rule clarification, not much to comment on other than he seems to want us paranoid about how screwed we are as a village. Then again, others (myself included, in a way) did the same thing, so I'd hardly lynch him based on that.

I would say the Black Queen HAS to kill the Black Bishop, for her own safety. Her life is doomed from the point the Black Bishop finds her - if he does, sooner or later, the Werebear will die. The White Bishop provides the same danger, in a different way - if they are revealed, and reveal the Black Queen at some point, she can be used as a "hired gun" for the innocents - actually, I just thought it can't happen, because if we tell the Queen who she kills, the Black Knight can just protect their target. Unless they're already dead.

Why would the Queen listen to us anyway? This form of logic makes no sense, regardless of the Black Knight's Night picks. And from here it just gets weirder.

Of course it's not good for her, but if she's given the choice between being executed and helping the innocents, what would she go for?

Neither, because she knows as soon as we were done with her we'd kill her. And she would know it, so why not take some innocents down and at least try to assure some form of baddies the win, as opposed to being the village's willing slave until she outlives her usefulness and is slaughtered? I'm just sayin'.

They're a different evil than the three gifteds; either way, they have no choice, really. They can rebel against the innocents, trying to help the "wolf" team - but a win for the wolves is not a win for the werebear.

And I thought PM conversation was banned here... but then what stops the Black Bishop (or a teammate) from PMing their findings and misleading them?

True, but if it was me I'd at least want my 'side' to win. Kind of like when (and no, I'm sincerely not bitter, it's just a good example....sort of) I was cobbler for a wolf team involving Boro and they killed me at Night. Or....even better, Agan in the last game, once turned, became a wraith and was a baddie. I'm not explaining this very well, for which I apologize, but basically while they're two different teams I would think that the Queen would still want the innocents to lose, even if she could not triumph.

It is banned, except when expressly permitted by the mod. What stops people from PMing? Honor and decency, my darling. We're all fair players here, even if we like to screw with each others' heads a bit.

It would work if they want to try second place instead of third, if they care. And if numbers are tight enough, they actually might get a shot at winning... but we don't want that so in that case there was no possible deal.

I think it was Rikae who responded to this and rightly said, "There is no second place in Werewolf." See what I said above. Besides, once the Queen's outted she's done. Either the wolf team will kill her or we (the innocents) will.

Yeah, the wolves can PM each other, but in a game like this I don't think it would be fair for the Black Bishop to let the White Bishop PM the other innocent roles, as it's cutting them out on a possible strategy of pretending to be the White Bishop - and that actually applies to other games, just like in last one... now I'm thinking of what chaos would happen if the Cobbler decided to PM guess the Ranger or something

Now he's just trying to lead the discussion to role speculation and away from actually catching a baddie toDay. This is something that really bothered me, as he continues to hammer his points home even after they're proven unrelated to the game play.

I meant that they could talk to the ranger saying they were the seer. Ignore the fact that it would require massive amounts of skill/luck to ever work, it was a really random thought, but my point is that if you're allowing the gifteds and only the gifteds to PM each other (again, besides wolf team), they're proving their roles to each other, and that kind of goes against the spirit of the game... "informed minority against uninformed majority", if the gifteds know each other for sure, they are just like a wolf team, with the advantage of having lots of plain innocents on their side, and the disadvantage of not having a night kill.

Hmmmmm. Interesting point, but if I'm correct the gifteds can only PM each other if the seer dreams the ranger, etc. Other than that they're basic gifteds.

Nemo [?!], you aren't new here, are you?

See, if you'd watched the Sally Spam Show you'd have seen some of her lovely work. Shame on you, you duck hater.

The wolves have their nightkill too. it's a risky move, but the reward would be huge: controlling two kills a night, making sure their players aren't going to be incriminated. Or even better, making the Black Queen look bad, so that the innocents focus their attention on her.

@Nogrod: I don't plan to do such thing if I ever get a cobbler role, don't worry. just brainstorming here.

He's back to saying how the baddies should probably be playing. Again, worriesome, though time seems to be running short so I best get a move on.

Just pointing out that I'm a boy.

Good to know, love.

Yes. (But I want my newbie status nonetheless) It is way too different from the way it is played here, though. It relies heavily on roles; I can't remember the last time I played with plain innocents/ordos before this game, for example, and there are second places (answering to Rikae, which I believe I missed before). You play almost like Mafia - and the way everyone's active, and analyse each other's posts to find which people are lying, it's an interesting approach that I wanted to experiment. I was trying to do my part on creating useful discussion - I didn't want to be misinterpeted as the cobbler or wild theorizer or whatever.

"I know I look bad, but I'm cute and new and cuddly, so you can't kill me." Bwah!?!??!?!?

(Though at this point, I should be pretending I am the cobbler. It would certainly be more fun but not helpful, yeah.)

Again, bwah?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!? You don't pretend to be the cobbler, dude. That gets you killed, first of all, and if you're pretending to be cobbler you may as well have the role. (Yeah, I know, I've done it once or twice, but that's because I'm not the juiciest apple in the basket, so it was uninentional. This is different.)

Now I realized I should've done the analysis bit earlier; because it's almost 4am here, and my brain is certainly not functioning how it should. So, as voting is mandatory, I'll just flat out avoid having anything to do with it.

++Fea

"Revenge vote", I don't think you'll execute a veteran today anyway; here's the promise to check on Day 1 happenings tomorrow, the first thing I'll do is to re-read stuff and write my first of those oh-so-famous lists.

At least he has the....erm, the masculinity, I suppose, is the polite way to say it....to say that he's revenge voting. But that doesn't really make it any better.

Okay, after reading Day 1 up to my last post, I think that, had I done it earlier, I would've probably voted for Sally. She's done basically the same as last game - besides that, instead of disappearing after the banter, she vaguely comments stuff that has been discussed already - thus adding nothing useful, maybe trying to look good. That's mostly post #73.

I think Nogrod is evil. I don't quite know why I feel that way; I'll look him again, trying to find it out.

The Fea/Nogrod case; she was seeing clues in her own post before Nogrod had said anything (excluding his pretty Alice quote - could that be taken as a hint itself? I have no idea). So, she was at least prone to think there was something hidden, Nogrod happened to answer her back, the character is called "Han Solo" itself, pretty convenient for an hint... but there's more to that. You'll notice Fea was herself making more and more questions, just like if she wanted to get more "evidence" against me. So, what is this about? I claim she plotted the whole thing from the beginning, to incriminate me. But why me? I should be just a silly newbie. The thing is, I was a last resort solution. Because she wanted to incriminate Lommy. But she isn't playing. So, she thought, why waste such a brilliant plan to break havoc in the game? And it happened.
Of course, all that tells us is that Fea is an evil mastermind. It says nothing about her alignment in this game - and I'm tempted to believe she's most probably innocent. But that leads us to another funny subject, "Save Fea!"

Most of you shall know this business better, but here's the pattern I noticed:

1. Fea acts suspiciously and puts herself in line for execution.
2. Fea's fan club panics and focus on a random lynch to save Fea from being executed.
3. The random lynchee turns out innocent. Now Fea may, or may not, be in even more danger.

So, it's not really efficient.


Making lists is a hard work. I discovered that while trying to make one, during the Night. Well, you can have this:

Likely innocent:
Lari, Fea, Rikae, Isa, Brinn (although she doesn't count because it seems she will always look innocent).

Likely evil:
Sally, Nog, Mira, Eonwe

I have no idea:
Durelin, Kath, TP, Nemo

----

that's all for now, going off for dinner.

(crossed since Nog's post 586330, probably there's a whole new page already)

No time to comment on this properly -Sorry!- so I'll try to keep it brief. I like his commentary on the "save Fea" thing, although I'll be the first to point out that his theory about Fea's vote seems rubbish to me. Fea's not going to accuse a newbie without a good reason. Then again, wanting her 'shadow' gone could have been a good enough reason for her.

Originally Posted by Hansy

Okay. I decided I'm following my gut on this one.

++Nogrod

I don't like the way many of his posts sound; too calculated, too "polished" as he said itself. And I think he's trying to divert us on going after "cobblers" - just compare the time he spent analyzing Fea, then he throws an Izzy vote out of nowhere.
I wanted him to be around to give his thoughts on this; I'll come here later, myself.

Erm....I think I'm reading this wrong, but it sounds as if he's saying "Noggie doesn't want us going after the cobblers, so he's guilty." Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Still, I don't think that Noggie being 'polished' is a reason to kill him. He's always like that, so I'm hesitant to kill him for being himself, at least right away. Then again, I can never read Noggie, so I'm hardly the expert.



Okay, done finally. Posting and refreshing. X'd since my last.

[Isabellkya]

--Sally
++Nog

Sorry, but I feel I need to make a more direct move to save myself, as my defense seems to have been overlooked.

[satansaloser2005]

--Hansy


++Izzy


EDIT: Yeah, I meant to put my other bit in another post, but edited instead, so I put it where it belonged. Sorry about the confusion.

[satansaloser2005]

Red flags go up when someone sneaks in like that. I feel like crap, but I hate ties and for pity's sake, that looks suspicious, regardless of what I thought the rest of the Day.

[the phantom]

It was tied Sally. Why'd you break it? It would be awesome to have a tie every single day. You broke the streak.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

It was tied Sally. Why'd you break it? It would be awesome to have a tie every single day. You broke the streak.

I bloody hate ties. Unless they're wrapped around an unsuspecting boy's neck. Particularly if he's a certain Russian. (Inside joke, don't even try to read into it, darlings.)

[Isabellkya]

I wouldn't of done it at all if people had read my defense and taken an honest look at things, in stead of just following others because of likea-bility.


Edit. 'sides ties are always fun and entertaining.
Sorry Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I wouldn't of done it at all if people had read my defense and taken an honest look at things, in stead of just following others because of likea-bility.

Sorry, Izzy. Feel like telling us what you were, since you're done for?

(And again, sorry, but it looked too underhanded to just pop in and put it in at the last possible second, though I may have done the same under the circumstances. Still....just looked too weird, and I had to act.)

[Isabellkya]

If everyone hadn't waited until the last possible second to vote....
I'm always selfish in werewolf - especially if I'm being lynched for silly reasons.

Pfft. Nope, you shall be waiting. xD