WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mith

Oh and you are not the good Cobbler for the same reason you are not the toothfairy, the Easter bunny or Father Christmas.

But I'm all of the above, so there (don't tell my kids ).

Nilp, what do you say about Mith having been attacked last night and being impossible to kill? It sounds like we have a couple of conflicting stories on our hands, don't we?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But I'm all of the above, so there (don't tell my kids ).

You lie to your children? Shame on you! In the increasingly unlikely event of me having children I will tell them it is all a big lie... will save me a fortune.... I am prepared to swear allegiance to Bilious, the Oh God of Hangovers though....

[Durelin]

I think Mac has the right idea in ignoring the "phantom's apprentice" thing. The simple matter is that someone the wolves wanted to kill did not die, so all's good.

Evilish:

Lari - She still bothers me, as does her vote yesterDay. Maybe it's a bit too obvious, but both Nerwen and Nogrod who had yet to vote claimed at least to have some suspicion of Gwath. My only problem is that Lommy voted for her on Day 1.

Nienna - Her vote for Gwath certainly looks bad, too. She has generally been quiet and on the edge of things, so she's worrisome.

Nogrod and Nerwen - Just piled on the Lommy vote, so very hard to tell.

Rikae - Whatever she's up to it doesn't seem good. Cobbler? Wolf who thinks Mith is the seer and dreamt of her?

Creepy:

Nilp - Uh, yeah. It's Nilp. And I don't know what he's up to, either. Rikae seems cobbler-ish but so does Nilp...and if one is a wolf I'd say Rikae but I have no idea.

wilwa - Also a not good looking vote for Gwath but doesn't feel as foul.

Innocent-ish:

(Unless Lommy was a sacrifice)
Fea
Brinn
Mac
Mith

These two just feel innocent to me:
Kath
Izzy

The Lari voters could also be part of an attempt to save Lommy, but I am naturally less suspicious of them because I find Lari rather suspicious.

If, as some have mentioned, there are at least 3 or even 4 more wolves out there, then I think it's plenty likely to have had wolf-on-wolf voting both these past two Days.

[Nienna]

Color analysis as promised

Feanor of the Peredhil – ish-brown – in a boring sort of way

Brinniel – Phthalo Blue – she is being very reasonable right now

wilwarin538 – Cobalt Blue – I’m seeing no real reason to suspect her right now but I would like to hear more from her

Durelin – Phthalo Green – fine for the moment. She has been making some sense.

Nogrod – Burnt Siena

Isabellkya – Payne’s Grey – She seems as confused as I am… unsuspicious

Nerwen – Florescent Orange tempera – I’m slightly concerned about her at the moment… that may be just the cheerleader thing though. She is on my suspicious list for the moment

Rikae – Cadmium Yellow – acting very suspicious… and hairbrush??

Mith - Quinacridone Red – not sure really what to think of her. She makes sense and then she doesn’t make sense… but that could be just a posting requirement thing?...

Kath - Chromium Oxide Green – She is not acting overly suspicious. She is fine for me so far

Lari – Reitz Green – Her vote yesterday was a bit suspicious so she is feeling vaguely cobblerish for me right now

Mac – Viridian – speaks in codes a bit but other than that he seems innocent enough for the moment

Nienna – Titanium White – of course

Gwathagor – Naples Yellow – he still looks suspicious to me but not nearly as suspicious as others… I’m still watching him.

Nilpaurion Felagund – Ivory black – he is confusing me

[Mithalwen]

Creepy? I am surrounded by ducks I think...for the last hour..that is creepy.

[Rikae]

Haha, well, if you all think I'm so suspicious, lynch me, then! Put your money where your mouth is!

EDIT: X'd with creeped-out Mith.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Haha, well, if you all think I'm so suspicious, lynch me, then! Put your money where your mouth is!

EDIT: X'd with creeped-out Mith.

Yes sweetie we could but I am fairly confident that you are only a cobbler and the priority is to get rid of the duckies .... and sorry Nienna but at the moment you are still top of the hit list. Nothing personal...just business...

[Rikae]

You know there are no "only a" anythings in this game.

Leaving me alive is great - for my side - as you shall see toNight.

[Rikae]

Who needs analysis? No analysis, no analysis, la la lalala!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know there are no "only a" anythings in this game.

Leaving me alive is great - for my side - as you shall see toNight.

Well we could kill you ..I am not certain you aren't a duck ...cobbler seems far too likely but it is quite certain that you are on the feathered side.... but I know the odds and I would sooner vote for a absolute certainty than a racing one...

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen to Rikae

Yes sweetie we could but I am fairly confident that you are only a cobbler and the priority is to get rid of the duckies .... and sorry Nienna but at the moment you are still top of the hit list. Nothing personal...just business...

Ok so Mith you claim that I am on the top of your hitlist (for no apparent reason) and yet you vote for Kath. I don't understand what your reasoning is for your suspicions of anyone or even your vote. I'm not complaining that you switched your vote to hopefully catch a feathered-one but that is really suspicious.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

To Nog, about Mith's sig:

Been that way for a while. Quote snatched directly from Shasta's game, where we declared her the sole victor.

Keep calm. Carry on.

[Durelin]

Haha, I forgot Gwath. He definitely goes in the innocent-ish category.

Heading back to school toDay (was on break) so from now on you'll probably be hearing less from me I'm afraid.

Really Nienna? I don't even remember most of those colours being in a 100 pack crayon box, and have little idea what they mean.

(Edit: Crossed with some people.)

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Kath

If you believe that might be the case then why do you think that Lommy's vote for Lari on Day 1 makes her slightly less suspicious?

I didn't say it made her less suspicious, but it is an issue to address. Part of addressing it is realizing that with a larger than usual number of wolves we may well have more wolf-on-wolf voting than usual. Not that I have any clue what is usual in these games really, or that usual would begin to describe it.

Rikae and Mith you are both driving me crazy. I don't think the latter is trying to but you're doing it all the same. Either say things or don't say them, I don't like it in between.

Edit: Crossed with Mith again.

[Macalaure]

*looks around confused and whimpers*

Mith, Rikae, and Nilp have conspired to give me a headache. May swift death catch each.

I agree with Kath on Wilwa and Lari. Lari's the most suspicious looking of the bunch, and I would really like to hear what she has to say about her vote. We all have sudden changes of mind, but the fact that she posted 2 vote counts shows she knew exactly what she was doing, but chose not to tell us.

I do think you discard Nienna too quickly, though.

Wait, wait... Lari already did post toDay? I thought she hadn't. And she didn't explain her vote? *sharpens knife*

The lack of analysis toDay is a bit worrisome. I see role speculation, lists with some (or without) comments, and a long summary, but only Kath and me actually analysed votes, deaths etc. Come on, it's Day3 already!

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Bubbles

Wait, wait... Lari already did post toDay? I thought she hadn't. And she didn't explain her vote? *sharpens knife*

Yes I did not explain my vote nor do I really intend to because I'm having a hard time figuring out how to explain it and go with my crack role. Clearly I'm trying to figure out how to do that, but I have the problem of writing a horribly long paper that I've been sort of putting off and will not be able to devote an adiquit amount of time to WW toDay. Yes earlier I did but I was also trying to wake up and then I started on my paper.

Sorry for the nonexplination.

[Rikae]

Lari's role = no analysis?

Mith, I said I'm not on *your* side, and if Mac's on your side, I'm not on his side either. Or so it seems. If I'm wrong, then I'm headed for a bad mistake toNight. (But I'm never wrong, and you're headed directly into the fire swamp!)

[Gwathagor]

Here's me taking a Yellow Ochre look at Wilwarin.

Most of her early posts aren't worth trying to analyze, so I've left them out. It will suffice to say that she voted for Legate because she didn't want to introduce another voting candidate into the mix.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Wow, my life on a coin flip, that's pretty scary...

Anyway, I have been given a second chance at life so I will definitely try and be useful.

[quotes someone]

It must simply mean that we are only dealing with wolves and not a bear or anything. Unless the bear gave up his chance for a kill so that we wouldn't know of his existence right away, but I doubt that.

Lommy's "seer hint" spot makes a lot of sense, seers always seem to be the main target for wolves so it wouldn't surprise me for a second that they'd go after anyone who could fill that role.

[quotes someone]

I'm thinking no for 2 and 3. They had 24 hours to decide on something and most likely plenty of people to choose from, so I doubt they were under that much pressure. 3 isn't really a smart tactic for them, people who don't talk much can aquire a lot of suspicion so to kill them off wouldn't be overly intelligent. 1 is possible, but it's a scary notion that everything is going exactly as they planned.

Well, it's really quite impossible to know what their thinking, so I think we should maybe just keep Mira in the back of our minds then toMorrow when their is another kill we can compare the two, see if there is some pattern or something, perhaps I'll re-read her's later, though what Lommy found seems to make quite a lot of sense...

For now I need to go run some erands, I'll be back fairly shortly. Perhaps I'll make a list of some sort...

x'posted since my last

Ok, in this first post she is addressing Mira's death on Night 1. She doesn't really say anything new and original, though that in itself isn't necessarily suspicious. Some of her reactions in this post appear feigned to me: basically, wherever smileys show up. I should also point out that she supports Lommy twice; maybe a wolf would be less likely to associate with a fellow, maybe not.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Uhm, ok....I'll return shortly with some quotes and such to back this all up, but for now this is my starting list, subject to change:

The list of people who confuse the heck out of me:

• Fea
• Nerwen
• Nilp

The list of people who I have absolutely no clue about:

• Izzy
• Mith
• Kath
• Mac
• Nienna

The list of people I'm pretty sure about:

• Lommy
• Rikae
• Brinn
• Nogrod

The list ofpeople I suspect most at this time:

• Gwath
• Lari
• Dury

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Okee, down to business. My 3 suspects as I listed above: Durelin, Lari and Gwath. I went back and skimmed through some stuff and I found the most against Gwath (see below). Dury is purely an eerie creepy bad feeling, I don't think I'll be voting her toDay, but I wouldn't be against the idea either, we'll see how it all goes.

Lari, well, she posts alot, like a lot....and I couldn't find much that was really interesting. She just makes me uneasy and I'm very tempted to vote for her toDay.

Now Gwath, I saw this and went "oh!", let me know if it's already been mentioned and I just didn't see it:

k, so he puts Legate on his "sort of" suspicious list, says he's too obvious to be a wolf but then votes for him anyway?? I mean I know I voted for him without any hard core suspicion, but I admitted that. Here he basically says that there are 2 other people he is more suspicious of, that Legate's unlikely to be a wolf, and then votes him anyways. o.O So yeah, I don't like that....so I stopped reading when I saw this, wanted to comment first, will now be going back and reading all of his posts once more. Unless someone else does something crazy I think I'll be voting for Gwath.

Her suspicions of Durelin and Lariren at this point seem to be based mostly on bad feelings; she also seems pretty confident already that she will end up voting for me. I find her case against me to be pretty weak; others may disagree. I have tried to explain that stupid Legate thing as well as I can, so I won't do it again unless someone asks.

It looks to me like Wilwarin was fishing for a voting target and had already picked me, but threw Durelin and Lariren in there just to make it look more like the due process of law.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Anyway, I'm leaning more and more towards voting for Gwath, he's really starting to urk me. I hadn't gotten the chance before to go back and read all his posts (had to go pick up my brother unexpectidely), but I will do that right now.

She reiterates her suspicion of me and spells two words wrong.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

K Kath, I gotcha now, and ya I believe I had just agreed with Lommy about that.

Anyway, re-reading Gwath's and Lari's posts again, I definitely will vote for one of them, leaning more towards Gwath for sure though. This is really just a quick peek in, I won't make it on again for a couple more hours and then will probably vote then.

Why does she keep Lariren in here? She already specified two posts ago that unless something crazy happened, she was probably going to vote for me. And she doesn't ever really even elaborate on why she is so suspicious of Lariren, even though she allegedly found by far the most evidence against me?

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Well basically just the frequent, short posts and your overall attitude, I just don't like it. Kinda like why I'm iffy about Lari, all the banter and such just doesn't sit well with me. I honestly wish I could give you more, but I don't have it. There's just a large amount of people that aren't striking me as being guilty, mostly just insane, probably cause of Sally's assignments. It's making the game very interesting in that there aren't many I find suspicious, I'm just really hoping to get lucky.

Hmmm. She's just really hoping to get lucky. Whereas I was by far the more suspicious three posts ago, notice that she now compares her case against me to her case against Lariren, which consisted of, approximately: "she just makes me uneasy."


Conclusion: Reasonably Suspicious
Wilwarin, to me, seems to be either an ordo who is very busy and doesn't have the time to put extensive thought into this game, or a wereduck who is trying to avoid suspicion by being non-comittal and low-key. Her cases against myself, Lariren, and Durelin are very, very flimsy and seem artificial, as if she was making them up and hadn't done a very thorough job. There is some inconsistency, too, which is by no means an indicator of evil-intentions, though it is easier to fall into contradiction when you aren't telling the truth.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Really Nienna? I don't even remember most of those colours being in a 100 pack crayon box, and have little idea what they mean.

They're oil paints.

[Gwathagor]

Suspicious
Rikae - most obviously suspicious player in the game. The fact that she seems to be trying to suspicion concerns me.
Lariren
Wilwarin
Neither One Nor The Other
Nilpaurion - I can't make heads or tails of his vague remarks earlier about being somebody or other, and so I think I'd better not try.
Nienna
Mithalwen - I could really go either way right now with Mith. Rikae has suggested that Mith's campaign against Lommy was wolf-on-wolf, and now the two of them are going at it. I need more time to make a decision - I want to see how their contest plays out.
Innocent
Isabellkya
Mac
Nogrod
Fea
Brinniel
Durelin
Kath

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Suspicious
Rikae - most obviously suspicious player in the game. The fact that she seems to be trying to suspicion concerns me.
Lariren
Wilwarin
Neither One Nor The Other
Nilpaurion - I can't make heads or tails of his vague remarks earlier about being somebody or other, and so I think I'd better not try.
Nienna
Mithalwen - I could really go either way right now with Mith. Rikae has suggested that Mith's campaign against Lommy was wolf-on-wolf, and now the two of them are going at it. I need more time to make a decision - I want to see how their contest plays out.
Innocent
Isabellkya
Mac
Nogrod
Fea
Brinniel
Durelin
Kath

Gwath, I know there is little point in saying "wolf on wolf" isn't my style because of this games parameters but the fact is that it would be rather bold and unwise so early in the game knowing that my continual survival would look rather odd.

Rikae has pretty well admitted that she isn't for the village and that we aren't on the same side.

All I ask is that I am not lynched while I am still delivering ducks for the village. I can't prove I am not bluffing but even if it were a bluff why not profit from it while you can? I hope you see the sense in that.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

They're oil paints.

Or, um, some of the names are the same, anyway. Some of the others I haven't heard of or used.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

They're oil paints.

Some are pottery glazes.

Ishbrown for me.

Suggests I am bland. Camouflage. Analysis good.

Disagree about Durelin. Think burnt umber. Barely agree on Brinn as phthalo. Suggest Titanium instead. Naples yellow light for Nog. Yellow ochre for Gwath. Lari as shinoku. On a good firing.

Color = fascinating.

But confusing.

Ergo, burnt umber = chocolatey brown. = neutral tone, used as darkening agent. Also used in underpainting: most effective under the surface. Durelin as burnt umber = she is too subtle, and feels too dark, yet is still neutral. Cool tone.

Phthalo is cool, soft. Titanium = white. Overwhelming. Brinn feels titanium, always.

Naples yellow = bright; naples light = common skin tone. Suggest, Nog is what on the surface he appears to be.

Yellow ochre = sometimes overwhelming sunflower color. Too bright. Too abrupt. Dislike stylistically, but find useful and interesting.

Shinoku. Glaze. If surrounded by too much heat, comes off as bad. Lari = metaphorical pot: shinoku is good, just sometimes seems not.

No codes from me. Just colors, with explanations.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Yellow ochre = sometimes overwhelming sunflower color. Too bright. Too abrupt. Dislike stylistically, but find useful and interesting.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Some are pottery glazes.

Yes. Some are oil paints and some pottery glazes. They are mostly just colors as I was using them. Google should give you a good impression of the color if you check.

And brownie points to Gwath for guessing oil paints as they are mostly that.

[Kath]

Just trying to get my thoughts together after that look at the votes.

The Lommy voters:
Mith is a difficult one. I don't think she is the Seer. Given how sure she was of Lommy yesterDay and the fact that she was proved right the wolves surely went after her. I think she is the phantom's apprentice and I still don't know whether that role is for the village or for it's own good. I don't think she's a wolf either though so I won't vote her.

Mac - the way that he reached his vote for Lommy seems odd to me because he discounted Durelin because he was unlikely to get a vote for her, then listed a bunch of people who with the exception of Lommy had no votes but then said he was voting for her not because she'd got votes but because he agreed with what others said. I would like to hear him answer this though.

Brinn - not actually liking her playing style this game. Or, not the playing style exactly but the fact that she seems to be really holding back. It feels like she doesn't trust herself to post substance.

Fea - who knows?

Durelin I'm happy with.

Nog I'm alright with.

Nerwen - well the vote feels a bit safe as I think she'd have been aware that there was no point in voting Gwath or in not voting Lommy when she voted. I'd like to see what she does toDay.

So those I won't vote toDay from this list:
Nerwen
Nog
Durelin
Fea
Mith
Mac (at least not until I hear a response from him)

Those I might:
Brinn

From the Gwath voters I might vote Lari.

So ... overall it's Brinn or Lari I think.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Mith - Quinacridone Red – not sure really what to think of her. She makes sense and then she doesn’t make sense… but that could be just a posting requirement thing?...

Synthetic pigment? Synthetic pigment? And really a bit harsh with my colouring ..much more a Rose Madder kind of girl...

[Kath]

I've forgotten what I wanted to add on to that earlier post but I just wanted to mention something from Durelin before I go and read through the posts again to find out what it was!

If, as some have mentioned, there are at least 3 or even 4 more wolves out there, then I think it's plenty likely to have had wolf-on-wolf voting both these past two Days.

If you believe that might be the case then why do you think that Lommy's vote for Lari on Day 1 makes her slightly less suspicious?

[Kath]

Ah I remember - I was going to look at the Lommy voters having said that I think it likely that a wolf would end up voting in that bandwagon.

So the voters were:
Mith, Mac, Brinn, Fea, Gwath, Durelin, Nog, Nerwen.

Assuming three wolves, and that one wolf voted Gwath and the other was Lommy, there is probably one wolf in here. Assuming more than three wolves there may be two in here.

Mith - starts off with Lommy ringing her alarm bells a bit. Then some suspicion of Rikae, thinking she might be a Cobbler. Then says Lommy and Nienna are suspicious. Votes Lommy. Now, yes, it seems a very definite vote but for some reasoning her surety in the vote became stronger all Day despite the addition of another suspect and no extra reasoning. If she is a wolf as Rikae thinks this is a Mith I've never seen before.

Mac - starts with suspicion against Durelin and Nog, though the two seem to cancel out somewhat. Lommy originally in his unknown list not in his suspicious list which held Durelin and Nog. Feels better about Nog (why?), will get no support from Durelin and so chooses Lommy out of a pretty random list of four because he agrees with what Mith said about her which wasn't a great deal really and with what Gwath said. It feels like too little reasoning from a player like Mac.

Brinn - uncomfortable with wilwa and Lommy. Reiterates that. Votes Lommy. Well it's consistent but there isn't a huge amount behind it. Brinn this game seems to be holding back a lot, I don't know whether she's playing very carefully or is time limited or what but she doesn't feel like her usual innocent self.

Fea - I can't work out whether her 'less' list means she would trust those people less or more so, erm, could do with clarification there as Lommy was in that list. Votes Lommy, but I can't work out whether that's a continuation of a suspicion or a reversal of one. Either way some reasoning would have been really nice. If she is a wolf she could coast the whole game like this.

Gwath - his vote was clearly self preservation.

Durelin - mentions suspicion of Lommy and Mac from yesterDay and I think continued that early toDay. I think then continues that and adds suspicion of Nog, wilwa, Gwath and Nienna. Retains the same suspicions but Lari moves into the suspicious list as well. Reasoning for all. Says will vote for Lari or Lommy. Feels worse about Lari than Lommy. Votes Lommy because she already has votes. Pretty consistent, especially having come from the Day before as well.

Nog - seemed to lack suspicion of Lommy at the beginning. Didn't like Nienna, wilwa, Durelin or Brinn's votes from yesterDay. Clears Durelin and retains suspicion of Lommy, doesn't talk about the others. Some suspicion of Brinn. Whole list of people he wouldn't mind lynching; Gwath, Lommy, Fea, Brinn, wilwa, Nienna. Votes Lommy because he is out of options for actually getting people lynched.

Nerwen - suspicion of Gwath, Lommy, Mac, Mith, Rikae, Durelin, Nog. Deciding between Gwath and Lommy. Chooses Lommy because she feels worse. Apparently cross posted with a Lommy vote but it would still have been clear that Lommy was dead without her I think.

Going to post this and then have a think.