WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nilpaurion Felagund · 03-24-2009, 10:50 PM

No, I think that's me.

Isabellkya · 03-24-2009, 10:56 PM

If you are naturally Cobblerish.
Then how can you try to look Cobblerish?

Nilpaurion Felagund · 03-24-2009, 11:03 PM

You got me there.

Can anyone answer?

Nerwen · 03-25-2009, 03:07 AM

No... this Zen Wolfism is too deep for me...

Macalaure · 03-25-2009, 03:15 AM

I don't have a bloody idea what's going on here. Judging from the others posts, neither does anybody else...

The small number of night kills makes it improbable that we have a bear or competing duck teams. We either have a fourth duck, or one or more neutral players who cannot kill in the regular sense, but have winning conditions that are opposed to the winning conditions of the asylum. At the moment, all we can do is assume we have a fourth duck, though that might be exactly what Sally wants us to do, while her realities look completely different, and lead us into realms that are not entirely comprehendable by sane human reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

For all I know, you're all ducks.... except maybe a gifted or two...

Eru have mercy on us...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izzy

I think toDay's vote should be moderately easy.

Why?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

And then, the bomb.

Did somebody say BOMB?

I thought Gwath was the bomb on Day1.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 03-25-2009, 03:32 AM

There can only be one . . .

Nogrod · 03-25-2009, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't have a bloody idea what's going on here. Judging from the others posts, neither does anybody else...

Exactly. Almost half of the Day has gone and all we have is basically banter like this was Day1 and not D4...

I agree with Mac that we should go with the hypothesis that there are one or more ducks left and that they are our main goal for the time being.

But I'm afraid we may have some yet unexploded bombs in our hands as well - like people who get new skills after certain conditions are met - like the one Mith got when attacked. And looking at the way Nilp wishes to get lynched he might be one of them to be sure. Or then not.

An interesting detail. All the three known wereducks voted for Gwath on Day2. That basically makes me say he's innocent unless some major new information to the contrary is brought up. The ducks surely were trying to help Lommy out from the gallows but I think it highly unlikely that they were facing a situation where two of them were leading the votes and they just decided to desert Gwath - and failed.

Nilpaurion Felagund · 03-25-2009, 03:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm afraid we may have some yet unexploded bombs in our hands as well - like people who get new skills after certain conditions are met - like the one Mith got when attacked.

*pouts* You really think Mummie is the phantom's apprentice?

*shrugs* Ah, well . . .

Macalaure · 03-25-2009, 04:07 AM

Rikae -> Mith
Nobody can tell what she knows, wants, or is up to. She's playing a game of her own.

Nilp -> Kath
I absolutely don't know what to think of him.

Kath -> Lari
She's been after her for a bit, but is anybody else suspicious about the way she shifted the blame away from Nienna and Wilwa onto Lari in #655?

Mith -> Kath (2)
See Rikae.

Mac -> Nienna

Nogrod -> Nilp
Not trying to save Nienna, but he could have hoped that she would survive without his help and that it was not worth risking his own feathery bottom. (Interesting: he voted neither of the dead ducks - this is uncharacteristic for evil Nogrod, though maybe he was told that he's not allowed to vote for his fellows.)

Fea -> Nilp (2)
Nilp was more likely to attract votes at this point than anybody else. Votes for him are easy, especially when combined with not much reasoning. My feeling still says she's innocent, though.

Nienna -> Mith (2)
Why not Nilp or Kath?

Brinn -> Kath (3)

Nerwen -> Nienna (2)
There definitely was no need to bring Nienna back into the running at this point.

Izzy -> Nienna (3)
After her consistently. Innocent.

Durelin -> Nienna (4)
Innocent as well.

Lari -> Mith (3)
She showed before that she keeps track of the voting well, so evil Lari would have known that Nienna's only chance of survival was her voting Kath. On the other hand, if she decided not to save Nienna, she could just as well have voted for her.

Gwath -> Lari (2)
Same as Lari, plus what Nogrod said.

Evil
n.a.

Evil enough
Kath

You're asking me?
Mith
Nilp
Rikae

Innocent enough
Fea
Lari
Nogrod

Innocent
Durelin
Gwath
Isabellkya
Nerwen

Oh, the joys of the process of elimination.

I just noticed this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

I leave a widdle hintsie.

Fibonacci sequence.

Since three ducks are dead, and the game has not yet ended, we must be facing either 2 or 5 ducks right now:
Day1: 1 or 2
Day2: 2 or 3
Day3: 3 or 5 minus 1 resp. 2
Day4: 5 or 8 minus 3

Our only chance of winning is if we're dealing with 5 ducks. If we're dealing with 2, then we're doomed, unless we can pull a magic "get rid of two on one day" thing again. Tomorrow, we would have either 5 ducks, minus 1, possibly! If we have 5 ducks now, we will have 10 tomorrow! However, since, if I didn't miscount, we are 12 right now, after lynch and kill, there will be exactly 10 villagers left, all of which are ducks, and therefore, all of which will have won.

[...arrest this man, he talks in math...]

Nerwen · 03-25-2009, 04:14 AM

Like the new sig, Mac...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

At the moment, all we can do is assume we have a fourth duck, though that might be exactly what Sally wants us to do, while her realities look completely different, and lead us into realms that are not entirely comprehendable by sane human reason.

True, but you are behind the times

– the rest of us are assuming a fifth duck and maybe a sixth– see above. Although, the other scenario is just the sort of thing Sally would like... but then we've already won, haven't we?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I'm afraid we may have some yet unexploded bombs in our hands as well - like people who get new skills after certain conditions are met - like the one Mith got when attacked. And looking at the way Nilp wishes to get lynched he might be one of them to be sure. Or then not.

Do we know it's Mith?

Oh, and Nilp reminds me of mormegil a while back, when you and he were dreamed as wolves and he said he was something else that would explode and kill everyone who voted for him. He was bluffing, but maybe Nilp isn't. Sally was in that game– might have given her ideas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

*pouts* You really think Mummie is the phantom's apprentice?

I don't know, Nilp... do you think you are?

*sigh* All this thinking is making me tired... I need... sugar...
SUGAR!!!!!YIPPPPEEEEE!!!!

EDIT: x'd with Mac.

Mithalwen · 03-25-2009, 04:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

her realities look completely different, and lead us into realms that are not entirely comprehendable by sane human reason.

One of those rare games then when not being a sane human has it advantages.

Nerwen · 03-25-2009, 04:58 AM

*waves pom-poms*

YAAAAAYYYY! I LOVE BEING TOTALLY CONFUSED AND NOT EVEN KNOWING IF THE GAME'S OVER! IT'S SO MUCH FUN!!!!!!

*whispers* Anyone know what's going on?

Mithalwen · 03-25-2009, 05:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*waves pom-poms*

YAAAAAYYYY! I LOVE BEING TOTALLY CONFUSED AND NOT EVEN KNOWING IF THE GAME'S OVER! IT'S SO MUCH FUN!!!!!!

*whispers* Anyone know what's going on?

*whispers* Yes, some do but they ain't saying - And with Brin dead I doubt they will be too explicit since some know but ain't quacking either.... are they?

Macalaure · 03-25-2009, 04:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Although, the other scenario is just the sort of thing Sally would like... but then we've already won, haven't we?

Not necessarily. Those other roles might not actually be real evil, but they do not win as long as we win, and vice versa. This might be a bit questionable from a moral point of view, but morals is something Sally is not bothered by.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Don't panic– I just thought it was part of his bluff, meaning the number of ducks (or non-ducks, because he was acting evil by then) he would kill each time he was voted.

If it equals the number of ducks that he can take down with him, it must be less or equal to the number of ducks present.

Maybe he's telling us that our very only chance of survival is killing him? Now that would be noble.

03-24-2009, 10:50 PM	#1
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	No, I think that's me. __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

03-24-2009, 10:56 PM	#2
Isabellkya Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Amongst trees. Posts: 919	If you are naturally Cobblerish. Then how can you try to look Cobblerish? __________________ But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.

03-24-2009, 11:03 PM	#3
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	You got me there. Can anyone answer? __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...

03-25-2009, 03:07 AM	#4
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	No... this Zen Wolfism is too deep for me... __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

03-25-2009, 04:58 AM	#12
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	waves pom-poms YAAAAAYYYY! I LOVE BEING TOTALLY CONFUSED AND NOT EVEN KNOWING IF THE GAME'S OVER! IT'S SO MUCH FUN!!!!!! whispers Anyone know what's going on? __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

03-25-2009, 03:32 AM	#6
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	There can only be one . . . __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...