WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Macalaure]

Ha! Kath was a duck! I knew it! Just.... who killed her?

According to Gwath, we should trust Fea, Mith, and Nogrod. Only problem is, there might be a cursed role of some sort (five baddies + cobbler from the start?), so we can't be entirely sure about them.

Mith is the phantom. Phantom's death desirable. Principle. Worth Mith's death, too? Not sure. Fea's style contagious.

I'm rather confused about Izzy's role in all this.

Who else is left?

Durelin. I think her innocent, but one evil person must be left, so I should be careful.
Nerwen. Same as above.
Lari. Same as aboves.
Nilp. I guess we'll have to lynch him eventually, though me might get a bit of a clue via Izzy now.

[Nogrod]

Well spotted Nerwen!

I'm very uncomfortable with Izzy - even if I don't think she's a duck. But a cobbler of some sort most probably. Then the question becomes how many ducks we still have and can we afford lynching her as "just a cobbler" - and what other cababilities she has than tracking the seer (I mean what is she going to do now?). Or could she be the long-ago-mentioned "good cobbler" (whatever that is)?

Izzy's #1040 still makes me think her loyalties are leaning to the dark side:

Haha. Right in front of my face.
I think I completely understand Rikae's role now. I doubt she is as dangerous as the WereDucks.

At that moment Rikae was leading the votes with only one vote so it looks to me like an attempt to save Rikae who clearly was up to no good - and which was confirmed by her death.

Then there is this:

Originally Posted by Izzy

Because, I'm the Seer tracker. I've looked at everyone - and have found no one to be the seer. Meaning, there is no seer.

To begin with it's very hard for me to come up with a concept of a role which includes "seer-tracking" and being on the good side at the same time. But then again most everything seem to be possible in this game.

How about her claim that she has looked at everyone? Everyone? Like five checks per Night or something. Or PM:ing Sally like: "Are there any seers around?". And Sally answers: "Nope.".

Now why she felt a need to say that aloud is a good question that needs to be thought carefully as it would look like an insane "confession" from a baddie. I'm not sure there is a rational answer we could infer from what she has said and what has happened as the roles might be anything - but we need to try anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Ha! Kath was a duck! I knew it! Just.... who killed her?

Yes, I need to know. How can I cheer if I don't know who did it?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

there might be a cursed role of some sort (five baddies + cobbler from the start?)

*Nerwen once more brings her STUPENDOUS PLANET-SIZED BRAIN into play*

Hmmn. Also, if there'd been five ducks on Day Two, you'd think they'd have got Gwath lynched instead of Lommy, wouldn't you?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm rather confused about Izzy's role in all this.

I think she's either another cobbler, a duck, or some sort of evil gifted (edit: or a gifted cobbler, like Rikae). It's odd her voting Nienna if she's a duck, though. Mith already had two votes. (edit: irrelevant if Mac's idea is right.)

But I don't think she's one of the good guys, somehow... Maybe she is the Seer-tracker, and her job is (or was) to find the Seer and let the wolves know (Edit for clarity: still lying about having checked everyone, obviously).

ZMOG!!111!!IM LIIEK TOTALLY A GENUIS!!!1111!1!!!!GO ME111!!!!

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod; clarification. EDIT2: left out a bit.

[Mithalwen]

I would guess that Issy (as other brave players have in the past) was making an attempt to save Gwath after his reveal. There was a dream catcher in a game I didn't play in so I have no idea how it works. Maybe effectivey a good cobbler... a cobbler will take a fall for the wolves after all... a "good cobbler" would stick their neck out for the gifteds..

Nogrod, I read the post that freaks you as "I know that Rikae is the cobbler. ergo she isn't as dangerous as a duck". I wouldn't over analyse this it... we need to focus on killing ducks. And I think that even a shrunken flock must mean ducks rather than one duck.

Mac dear...I don't think Phantom's death is desirable ....(I would say that wouldn't I...) Mine definitely isn't...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Nogrod, I read the post that freaks you as "I know that Rikae is the cobbler. ergo she isn't as dangerous as a duck". I wouldn't over analyse this it... we need to focus on killing ducks.

It's not so much the "she isn't as dangerous as ducks" - part of it, but the preceding part that makes me nervous, the "I completely understand Rikae's role now" -thing. That just doesn't look genuine.

Were she an ordinary innocent who just realised that Rikae indeed is a cobbler she would have said something along the lines of "Yay, I see now why you think Rikae is a cobbler and it fits", or ""I think Rikae is a cobbler" - and then she could have inferred that she's probably less dangerous than the actual ducks. That could have been innocentish.

But she said she suddenly understood Rikae's role completely! Practically claiming she not only knew Rikae was a cobbler but also that she knew what other cababilities, tasks and goals Rikae had - and armed with that "complete understanding" of Rikae's role she saw she was less dangerous than the ducks.

So it's a much more forceful defence - and is clearly based on something that is not true (I'm hesitant to use the word lie anymore after what happened I used it the previous time ). There is no way Izzy suddenly gained full knowledge of every facet that went into Rikae's role, but still she claimed to have it and leaning on it tried to prevent us from lynching her.

She didn't claim "complete understanding" of Rikae's role for nothing. Making that kind of untrue claims have a reason behind them.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I would guess that Issy (as other brave players have in the past) was making an attempt to save Gwath after his reveal.

My thoughts exactly! Oh, except I'd probably substitute "lynch" for "save" in that sentence.

...Although I agree with Nogrod that she was also trying to save Rikae.

Meanwhile I think Rikae was trying to save Nilp. She was trying to drag Mith to the block, then out of the blue she confessed. What was happening then? Only Nilp going "Mwa-ha-ha!" and people arguing over whether he was a cobbler playing duck or a duck playing cobbler. I guess Rikae picked the second one.

YES! N3RW3N HAZ TEH AWSUMST BRANE EVA!!!111!!!

[Nerwen]

Hey!

What if Nilp's "Fibonacci sequence" doesn't refer to the number of ducks, but the Nights on which new ducks are added? (assuming you ignore a "1"). So the flock started out with x ducks, and a duck was added on Nights 1, 2 and 3, and there'll be another toNight (Night 5).

*dies of own brilliance*



(Disclaimer: ...and it may also be a random comment thrown out by Nilp for the purpose of driving us further up the wall...)

EDIT: clarification
EDIT2: clarification

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sorry, I'll be around only for an hour or so. This fool--I mean, my host, had--or though he had, the stupid turlingdrome--an exam today. So off he went to school, not realising that the bloody thing has been postponed and so he wandered around UP doing nothing the whole day. But yeah, it can happen to anyone, especially if they only have half their brain, and that half's already rotting due to the weather and enforced holidays.

And, anyway, we can't stay late cos early tomorrow morning there is something of consequence.

So, I bet Gwath dreamt of us last NIGHT before he got his eyes plucked out by ducky beaks, and I guess now in the afterlife he's scratching his head, wondering who we're supposed to be. Hahaha!

I've done my purpose to the dead, and now to the living:

• Feanor of the Peredhil: Nice to see you using them pronouns again! Modfire.
  
  
• Nogrod: Is too afraid to lynch Nilp, should we lynch you instead?
  
  
• Isabellkya: Revealed her hand too soon. Cut her hands off.
  
  
• Nerwen: Is cheering more. YAAAY!!! To the stake.
  
  
• Mithalwen: Is this guy's mother. Should have done the proper thing a long time ago, and left him to the wolves. Lynch.
  
  Adam!
  
  Shush, he left me in charge.
  
  
• Lariren Shadow: Is doing a somewhat good job. Too bad you're the only one left!!! Lynch.
  
  
• Macalaure: Couldn't lynch this guy yesterday, even if he could have. Lynch.
  
  
• Durelin: Errrrrm . . . Lynch?
  
  
• Nilpaurion Felagund: Should die. Now, if possible. Lynch.

Anyway, a village who can't even do a proper mass-lynch should be lynched. So my vote's a rather easy one:

++EVERYONE (and your little mod, too.)

Good night.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Known not-ducks, says Gwath:

• Fea
• Nog
• Mac
• Mith

Not known by Gwath:

• Durelin
• Nerwen
• Lari
• Nilp
• Izzy

Makes Day easy: Kill Not Known.

Can Kath-duck slayer kill again? One Night thing? Gwath with retributional powers? Modified-seer acts as Hunter?

Questions to be answered.

Still, lynch Not Known. Not so hard.

Izzy looks like cobbler-type. Not duck.

Lynch one of others. Kill ducks, win game?

Lynch Sally later, for collective headache.

[Macalaure]

I agree with what people say about Izzy.

Any ideas, though, which one out of her, Nilp, Nerwen, Lari, and Durelin we should lynch? Unless we're dealing with a cursed role, one of the is a duck, but one looks cobbler-like, one gave his brain to a pawnbroker before the game started, and three look quite innocent to me.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod.... this is not a game in which the concept of ordinary innocents has much currency. I think I can safely say that. You must have noticed and I think Sally pretty well said as much. Therefore Issy may be innocent but not ordinary.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Therefore Issy may be innocent but not ordinary.

Sure. We don't know whether tracking seer(s?) is a goodie-, a cobbler- or a baddie role. It may be anything. Although it beats me how a seer-tracker could be a goodie.

But that's enough of the subject from me now.

We may do wise to concentrate toDay on those Gwath had no knowledge of (eg. the not-known innocents) as there are only five of them. But later on I wouldn't take Gwath's list as granted. If there are people actually changing sides then someone Gwath dreamed of earlier might have other allegiances now. That would be more probable with those who have been dreamt of very early on eg. you Fea. Were you a changed duck you would have reason to stress using that list...

And if we are going to duck-hunt, which I think the best route now, I'm ready to agree Izzy looks less a duck so I might be ready to concentrate the search to the four remaining people eg. Nerwen, Dury, Lari and Nilp.

[Nogrod]

I'm not sure how much help this will be, but as I gathered this informtion to myself let it be shared as well. So here's yesterDay's voting. Oh, the problem of making a good case... so easy to bandwagon it... (I've bolded those not known by Gwath)

Nilp ++ Mac (Mac 1)
Nilp – Mac ( )
Fea ++ Nilp (Nilp 1)
Fea – Nilp ( )
Rikae ++ Mac (Mac 1)
Nilp ++ Durelin (Dury 1, Mac 1)
Mac ++ Rikae (Rikae 1, Dury 1, Mac 1)
Mith ++ Durelin (Dury 2, Rikae 1, Mac 1)
Nerwen ++ Rikae (Rikae 2, Dury 2, Mac 1)
Nogrod ++ Rikae (Rikae 3, Dury 2, Mac 1)
Rikae – Mac (Rikae 3, Dury 2)
Rikae ++ Rikae (Rikae 4, Dury 2)
Gwath ++ Nilp (Rikae 4, Dury 2, Nilp 1)
Dury ++ Rikae (Rikae 5, Dury 2, Nilp 1)
Fea ++ Rikae (Rikae 6, Dury 2, Nilp 1)
Lari ++ Durelin (Rikae 6, Dury 3, Nilp 1)
Izzy ++ Rikae (Rikae 7, Dury 3, Nilp 1)

Lari's vote for Dury is interesting (and there was no reason stated in the vote post). I need to run so I have no time to check what she had said earlier. Dury's and Izzie's votes are rather insignificant as what comes to the outcome of the vote. It's hard to say how honest they were...

See you about five hours before the deadline.