WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nogrod]

What the...!!!

These wolves keep on making surprises...

Wilwa is innocent.

I'm going to watch the ice-hockey game to the end but will then be around for more.

EDIT: X'd with Sally's second post...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa is innocent.

I'm of much the same opinion. Great minds and all that.

[Nogrod]

This is getting weird indeed... Very much so.

The wolves play a very intricicate game I see.

Back soon.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I too am the seer, but I have dreamt of my self every night. . . well, and about Jean Claude Van Damme once, but that was not intentional.

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

Oh, really? I tried to dream of him and didn't get a PM back from Lommie. What's his role?

*hugs you*

Don't worry, I'll make it all better, dearie.


Speaking of which, I'll be here for the next hour or two but after that I'll be gone for several hours. Just as an FYI.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*reappears from the closet*

No, I'm the Seer.

...What do you mean you don't believe me?

...In any case, I'm back. *goes to find something to post about*

[Nogrod]

Sorry this took so long. I was distracted by an interesting radio program... but no one seems to be around anyway...

Where are you guys? *one more déjà vu*

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Seriously guys, you are making my head hurt. . . I am at a total loss.

Just check my avvie... I have kind of thought whether I should change it back to some more traditional "Nogrod-avvie" but now I think I have to keep it. *My brain hurts*


So maybe you Sally are now trying to sway the baddies off me by volunteering to be a seer toDay... That is indeed the tactics I hoped the baddies would think about me in relation to Lhuna yesterDay, even if I never actually believed the wolves would bite that (well I tried to overdo my seerness and the fact I was not going to be with you players any more to raise their suspicions that I was actually faking it but I never believed it would work).


But did you baddies after all belive I was actually an ordo protecting Lhuna (my dream come true!!!)? That would explain the boldness you Sally came forwards at the first moments of the Day.

Well, there you made a mistake because I am actually the seer indeed. And now the ranger may help me the Night to come.

But why didn't you kill Lhuna then? Back to that in a moment...


Well, if you and your friends had a better plan - which I think highly probable - you still made a mistake proposing that Lhuna is a wolf. It's not a question of who you claim is a wolf; it's that you claim you know a wolf when you just can't know it.

If you try to dress as a seer and you're just a plain ordo you can't say someone is a wolf. Really. If people will believe in you they will kill that someone you can't know who s/he is. An innocent would not do that in her first (well, second) post of the Day if she was just pretending to be the seer.

Now you actually "gave us a wolf" meaning you were ready to get her lynched if we believed you. So as there could be a possibility people believed in you (as there is no cobbler-role involved) then Lhuna must be a wolf in the end? Otherwise your plan would backfire immediately.

I know not what Lhuna is, but I know you can't know it either as I'm the seer and you're not - unless you're a wolf and she is one as well.


*Goddammit, I wawered between Sally and Wilwa (and Brinn) for my seemingly insignificant dream and ended up with Wilwa after a choice of a minute... thinking that the strong previous reactions to her might tell something. Had I just checked you Sally instead!*


So sorry Sally. You must be a wolf now or a very-very clumsy innocent. Being totally clumsy is the only explanation I can find for your "reveal" if you're not a ringwraith. And I don't believe you to be the first one.

And especially if you'd nevertheless be that clumsy, you wouldn't have never thought of playing the mirror-image of the phantasy I had the wolves could think I was doing with Lhuna and play the "false-seer" in that way... and to try to lure the baddies onto yourself with that - and being confident enough to pick Lhuna as a baddie to go for it. And somehow your culprit - of all the people around just happened to be Lhuna!

That's not the thinking of a clumsy player!

And it's pretty near to the scenario where you would have tried to make one of you two to look innocent making us believe that the one staying alive after another one was dead must be innocent!

So if you're a wolf indeed, then I will really start suspecting Lhuna... But I'd start with you Sally first.


Happily you put me into the category of an innocent, as trying to rub me the right way? Well that was a bad move. I was not impressed by you calling me an innocent. And your scheme will backfire as from now on you can't try to argue I'm a baddie during this Day (or any other) even if I jump on you or Lhuna as you've already claimed me innocent by your "dream"...

... just wondering whether it would be possible you really didn't think of that...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If Nogrod is the seer, then what sense does it make for the wraiths to leave him alive? Obviously it would be lovely for them to watch as we lynched our own seer, but still. . .

Of course Nogrod could be a wraith, with their relatively high numbers they could definitly afford to sacrifice one in order to draw out the seer. (but obviously then non of them would be the seer)

Then there is the chance of Sally being an ordo trying to draw attention away from the seer, but what kind of sense would that make?

What I am trying to say is this: the more I think about this situation the less sense it makes.

[Nogrod]

I needed to check the rules as I became a bit insecure.

But there is only one seer in this game.

So sorry Sally. You can't be one as I'm the one.

Also as you say you have one baddie it means you can't be a goodie trying to "fake the seer" to protect me as an ordo would not fake being sure who to kill.

I will not vote for you just now as I will have time tomorrow to look at how things are going but I will strongly advice you being lynched.

But you people should post indeed! What is this?

Also your suggestion Sally that Lhuna is a wolf bears to be marked down as if you're a ringwraith it might be Lhuna is one as well. Otherwise your act would be plain suicidal.


Hey Rune, you seem to address just the same question I'm trying to cope with. And btw. this is not the first instance the wolves have tried to baffle us...

But what you say about numbers... I think that might be important indeed. I thought of going to sleep but maybe I'll give it a time to check the scenarios...

[wilwarin538]

Wow, uhm, just popping in quickly, I'll be able to read everything more thorougly later on.

Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?

I don't know, it's so weird.....I'll be back a little later to look at everything far closer.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer? Or perhaps there is a wolf-seer?? Or someone who knows the seer's dreams?

I don't think so. I think Lommy said quite plainly that this will be an ordinary (or basic) game. At least I'm counting on that as that was the information we were given.

I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.


We should be able to pull this one out!

Any unknown innocent (4 of them) can now pick a wolf from 3/6 eg. ½ probability!

The three "known" innocents to make the very same choice from 3/7 which is only slightly less.

The three wolves have their three votes of course... and they may try to twist our ideas. And they know when to add their votes together if they think they need to do it... which we can't ever do trusting each other as they can.

So we should be able to win but it will require some effort.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)

It would be something like 19 hours from now... (the Day started about 5 hours ago)

[Nogrod]

Okay, here's the deal from my point of view...

Known innocents:
Nogrod - the seer
wilwarin538 - ordo
Nerwen - ordo

Unknown (three of whom be wolves and including the ranger & the hunter):
Nienna
Shastanis Althreduin
Rune Son of Bjarne
Lhunardawen - a wolf by implication?
satansaloser2005 - lying eg. a wolf?
Eönwë
Brinniel

But the basic numbers are now 7-3


The worst case scenario:

We miss toDay = 6-3
Ranger doesn't get it during the Night = 5-3
We miss the lynch toMorrow = 4-3
Ranger misses at Night = Game over.

The best scenario:

We lynch a wolf toDay = 7-2
Ranger protects me = 7-2 (or 6-2 if the wolves continue their line - but then there should be added one more known innocent or a wolf)
We lynch another wolf = 7-1 (6-1)
etc...


Okay. I can see now why the wolves are ready to play it "all or nothing" as the scenarios are like live and die within two Days/Nights.

Funny: it looked like our odds were really bad in then beginning - and I had the feeling of us being against the wall all the time - but looking at the numbers we're looking pretty good right now - if we just pick one toDay.

And with all the probabilities the ranger can save me the next Night as well so even if we miss toDay we will have 6(5)-3 tomorrow with either two known innocents and a wolf - or three known innocents. And that is going to ease our voting a lot.

So I just need to pull my act together and start delivering. But even if I can't do it, the growing numbers of innocents will make our choices better.

But we should start with a lynch that goes to the right address toDay.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Given that I'm just now getting back into the swing of things, can anyone tell me exactly what time the deadline is (aka: how many hours I have to vote?)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2

[Nienna]

I'm epically confused.

I'm also not going to be around hardly at all toDay. I'll be back in the morning my time to read anything new and then I will have to vote then.

First a question:

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

Read the thread Nienna... it might help you to figure out the possibilities...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Just wanted to say one thing. Perhaps Lommy messed with the roles without telling us, just to cause the confusion, so added a second seer?

Indeed. I can just see that evil Lommy giggling behind the computer screen at all of us (or trying to suppress giggles if she happens to be at Noggie's place).

But really this is quite confusing. Who's telling the truth? And are both of them innocent?

If Sally is the truthful one, then both are innocent and we should lynch Lhuna. If Noggie is the real seer, then he is innocent, but Sally could go either way.

If Sally is a wolf, this is a pretty risky move the wolves are playing. Because if Lhuna is a wolf, she is sacrificing a mate, and if Lhuna turns up innocent then Sally would surely expect herself to be a goner once Lhuna was lynched.

Yet if one is an ordo playing a seer, that's also a risky move which can backfire. Because if Noggie were an ordo, that was a very lucky guess he made about Legate, and if Sally is an ordo, then she also is really taking a chance calling Lhuna a wolf when she can't know for sure. And although an ordo may think it's a clever move to make a false claim in order to distract the wolves, it becomes even more confusing to the villagers.

There aren't any cobblers in this game, are there?

Of the three, I'd say Noggie looks the most innocent since if either claim is accurate than he isn't a wolf, and anyway, I'm more likely to believe him. So the question lies between Lhuna and Sally. I say it'd probably be best to lynch one of them toDay because it's more likely a wolf is among the two and also the death of either of them is more likely to answer questions than if we were to lynch anyone else. The question is, which one?

Why didn't Nogrod die? I thought it was odd at first, but I'm guessing the wolves worried that the ranger didn't protect him the Night before and would last Night. If Sally's a wolf, it wouldn't make sense to keep him alive in order to make her claim because if she were to do that, then surely she wouldn't have confirmed Noggie to be innocent in order to add to the confusion.

I suppose Nogrod could be a wolf in the scenario that he sacrificed Legate, then an ordo Sally made a false claim and under the assumption he was actually telling the truth, added him to her dream list. But that's a bit of a stretch.

Now, if Sally and Nogrod both turn out to be wolves playing some sort of game, I'd have to applaud them for putting on such a show. Of course that doesn't seem quite likely either, but if there are any third seers out there, do make your claim now.

Anyway, let's hope there's no more modfire since with the numbers we have right now, it seems we only have toDay to get this wrong before game over...so I'd rather get it right.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?

Case 1: Sally is truthful. I believe Nogrod to be the Seer - this case is improbable. However, should this be the true case, then obviously Lhuna was dreamt by Sally-seer as a Wraith.

Case 2: Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf. However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).

Case 3: Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade. Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.