WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nerwen]

So, leaving aside Nienna, who may be evil but who I can't see getting lynched toDay, we've got Shasta, Rune and Eönwë.

Firstly, I don't see why Shasta is sliding off people's suspicion-lists. Sure, his behaviour is almost too obviously wolfish... but so was Sally's!

However, I talked about Shasta yesterDay, and now I want to say more about the other two.

Basically, yesterDay they both did a "minor-Shasta", in that they came up with implausible theories of Sally's innocence. (Or, in Eönwë's case, a "they're all in it together" scenario.)
Now, Nogrod may think well of Eönwë for refusing to "blindly follow" his lead in lynching Sally... but I beg to differ.

For my part, I can say that I was not simply following Nogrod's lead. Did anyone say, "Yeah, I'll lynch Sally because Nog says so"?

No. Her behaviour was highly suspicious... so much so that the wilful blindness of these three to it looks very bad indeed. (Of course, it has to be innocent in at least one case!)

True, Rune and Eönwë did not go all out defending Sally, but here's what they did say:

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.

To be fair, he does conclude that "no possible explanation makes sense"... so he could be trying to feel his way through different possibilities.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.

My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.

Now, by this time it had been pointed out multiple times why Sally's behaviour was extremely unlikely to stem from a desire to help the village. So even if it wasn't self-evident to Rune, he's got no excuse simply to ignore the points already made by others.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).

He then quotes me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic", followed by:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).

Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.

Firstly, note that the "crazy theories" of these two (unlike Shasta's) seem to be aimed at the one thing that would really help the wraith team: discrediting Nogrod as the Seer and thus also taking away my and Wilwa's credibility as known innocents. (The second worst thing for the evil side, after being dreamed themselves, is to have such a high ratio of known to unknown players around that they'll get caught just by elimination.)

Now, I don't rule out that they may be genuinely worried that there's something strange going on (in fact, judging from the Night kills, there is something strange going on). Again to be fair, the wording of the quote of Nogrod's that Eönwë objects to does look rather wolfish.

That said, it just looks too much like they're throwing out these suggestions just to see if anyone will bite on them.

I'm particularly not rapt in this last bit (from the same post by Eönwë):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.

Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?

EDIT: X'd with two Niennas.
EDIT2: Clarification.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?

No.
People suspected Sally from the beginning. Then people attack Shasta. Yes, he did defend Sally a bit but only because no-one even considered that she could be innocent. I think he was making a point more than defending her. But that's not all I'm talking about. On a smaller scale there were all sorts of things that seemed to just suddenly spring out of nowhere and suddenly have everyone agree. Including the Lhuna thing where people suspected her and unsuspected her together (I'm going to need to reread and get some quotes, but that's how it felt when I came in)

Also, this uniformity is the same toDay. I know that the reveals seem like they make sense but no-one has even questioned them. This is partly what I mean about following. Where's the independence? Everyone just seems to trust anyone that "reveals". What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?

edit: x-ed

[Nogrod]

There is a time and place for everything dear Eönwë.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Also, this uniformity is the same toDay. I know that the reveals seem like they make sense but no-one has even questioned them. This is partly what I mean about following. Where's the independence? Everyone just seems to trust anyone that "reveals". What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?

Funny how Legate also called for independent thinking before he went down...

But anyway. There are probable scenarios, believable scenarios, possible scenarios, problematic scenarios, mad scenarios and downright impossible ones.

If you think that this common consesus that exists is just a great plot you should show us the plot and how the details would fit in to explain things from D1 to this moment better than the one we seem to most of us believe is the case.

Then I would be ready to hear your mur-mur and consider looking at the things a new - although I will not think again what I know, eg. that Wilwa, Nerwen and Brinn are ordos & I'm the seer. Those are things I have learned from Lommy and could not believe she would have fooled me.


But can you come up with even one reasonable explanation why the real ranger - or hunter to that matter - would like to remain silent at this kind of a moment when we are so near winning the whole game?

If you're the hunter it would be your duty almost to reveal now. Then we could lynch you and you could then take the lying Nienna with you. And we would cheer you as our champion toMorrow as it would be revealed to us when you heroaically die.

And if you're the ranger you might as well reveal as you can't protect me the next Night anyway and if Lhuna is lying the village needs to know it (if you leave your reveal too late it may become 50-50 vote in a decising situation where people may choose wrong as it's a flip of coin in the worst instance).

So if you can come up with a plausible theory I will listen to it in earnest. But before that I'm going to take Lhuna's and Nienna's revelations as believable enough to guide my actions toDay.

And must say your last post did raise my suspicions on you quite a lot...

EDIT: X'd with Nienna & Shasta

[Nogrod]

Oh, and adding to the earlier one: If you Eönwë are the seer - or anyone - you really should come clear right now. The ranger defended me the last Night so s/he might help you the next one (and you should have some new knowledge to turn the tables with five dreams of which at least a few should be alive) as with this small numbers the chances you'll be killed on the next Night are pretty high indeed! You'd do with the protection, right, unless you're a wolf who doesn't need it?

So how do I not see anyone of you three coming forwards? (Facing death is always the easiest situation to speak openly)

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If you think that this common consesus that exists is just a great plot you should show us the plot and how the details would fit in to explain things from D1 to this moment better than the one we seem to most of us believe is the case.

I'm not saying that everything is just a plot. I'm saying that the Lhuna and Nienna reveals have been taken for granted.

But you want a plot, here's an idea...

How come you're still alive? You revealed a while ago and you're still alive after something like 3 Days? Let me ask something. Why haven't the wolves killed you? Legate could have just been a sacrifice to cement your seerishness, allowing you to take charge of the village. Every day you claim a new person to be innocent, yet even in Day 1 you vote Sally yet claim that you haven't dreamt her? And obviously, being a wolf, you would know exactly who was innocent and who was guilty so everyone you cleared would believe you and support you. You could even throw one of your fellow packmates into it, to keep them safe. I'm sure they wouldn't object to it either. Also, I'm sure the real seer could be quietly working away, and not need to reveal, and if they did (they wouldn't need to toDay because its obvious the wolves are voting you toNight and if they don't they're you're probably one. And an extra Night is always useful. And if they're one of the ones you cast suspicion on, then you may actually be the one to keep them alive another day- wanting not to waste a kill but to get them lynched.) you could overrule it, after gaining the support of over half of the village. And then you're on the unstoppable march to victory, with the innocents and maybe even gifteds backing you.

Happy now?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But can you come up with even one reasonable explanation why the real ranger - or hunter to that matter - would like to remain silent at this kind of a moment when we are so near winning the whole game?

The ranger wouldn't have any need to come out unless threatened. And who would believe them? (Well, actually, this village would). And what of tactics? People have all sorts of strange plans.

And I'm not saying that no-one came out.

[Nienna]

++ Eonwe

[Nogrod]

Of Shasta and Rune I think Shasta looks more bad but Rune feels fouler.

I've been arguing about Shasta enough I think so just a few short ones on Rune topping what you others have said this far.

For you to consider toMorrow.

Especially the early comment like this make me feel bad about Rune:

Originally Posted by Rune

Legate seemed resonable, but then there is small inconsistensies. . .

Added with his gentle () but consistent suspicion of me whatever happened (untill I was relly believed to be the seer) it makes him look a bit suspicious. Careful but suspicious just because of that.

Also when he voted for Legate - after my revealment of course - he said as his only reason for voting:

Originally Posted by Rune

I never liked him anyway. . .

Now even taking Rune's manner of being grumpy that is a bit too much for someone with whom he plays on the other side of...

From the beginning I thought he was too defencive, even if he countered that by saying that he always wishes to answer things said of him. It let me feel a bit strange with him.

Added with his interesting martyrdom toDay being at a "costly" internet-cafe saying (bolding mine):

Originally Posted by Rune

and btw I have half an hour left here at the cafe. . .I really do not want to spend more money here, but it seems that I have to.

I have not seen Rune taken such an effort for this game ever before. So he must have something going on there?

Funny he should have been the first to suggest that Lommy had "chosen" people she knew better to have roles (eg. me and Legate). Now if he turns out a wraith, then... *ditto*

[Eönwë]

Also, funny how Nogrod hasn't "dreamt" of any of the gifteds. One could easily be hiding under the safety of the innocent title.

Beware! Nogrod might be using you!

edit:x-ed

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But you want a plot, here's an idea...

How come you're still alive? You revealed a while ago and you're still alive after something like 3 Days? Let me ask something. Why haven't the wolves killed you? Legate could have just been a sacrifice to cement your seerishness, allowing you to take charge of the village. Every day you claim a new person to be innocent, yet even in Day 1 you vote Sally yet claim that you haven't dreamt her? And obviously, being a wolf, you would know exactly who was innocent and who was guilty so everyone you cleared would believe you and support you. You could even throw one of your fellow packmates into it, to keep them safe. I'm sure they wouldn't object to it either. Also, I'm sure the real seer could be quietly working away, and not need to reveal, and if they did (they wouldn't need to toDay because its obvious the wolves are voting you toNight and if they don't they're you're probably one. And an extra Night is always useful. And if they're one of the ones you cast suspicion on, then you may actually be the one to keep them alive another day- wanting not to waste a kill but to get them lynched.) you could overrule it, after gaining the support of over half of the village. And then you're on the unstoppable march to victory, with the innocents and maybe even gifteds backing you.

Happy now?

Much more happy than I was before. Sad I only now realised there was that post of yours (I was writing my earlier post into the admin. thread... ).

Now I'm going to be very sorry if you turn out innocent - which I don't believe by the way.

But there's spirit and I do like that. Way to go Eönwë! And btw. no sarcasm involved. That was the best I hve sen this far.

Although inspired by Eönwë here I dare you wolves to try and leave me alive this Night. Let's see if you have the nerve for it.

[Nogrod]

okay, even if it's a bit dull now

++ Eönwë

Remember guys, Shasta looks bad but Rune might be worse even if he didn't look like it imediately.

[Thinlómien]

You lynched Eönwë, who was a ringwraith.

Night6 has now begun and I need the pics from the seer, the ranger, the hunter and the remaining ringwraith.

Narration will be posted before I go to sleep (in two hours).