WW LXI: Grimm Tales

[the phantom]

I'm here, and finishing my read-through. I've read everyone's posts except Boro and Mith, so when I'm done with them I'll post a little something. But first I'm going to post the voting and give thoughts on that.

As far as Lommy dying- not bad. Not that I don't enjoy her company, but that's as good a result as we could hope for (besides a Ranger save). After my read of her last night I was leaning innocent for her, but certainly not Gifted. She seemed peppy and fun at times, but not nervous or jumpy. She also seemed like she had the village's interests in mind, but didn't strike me as someone with heavy responsibility weighing her down.

Anyway, Boro, your first instinct was right. I wouldn't have killed her. There were two or perhaps three villagers who looked giftedish after my readthrough and they would've been the first to go. Though I think Seer hunting would've been out of the question, for I believe there was very little to go on.

Back in a bit.

edit: x-post since Boro

[the phantom]

Lari ++tp
Boro ++tp (2)
Mira ++Sally
Mith ++tp (3)
Kath ++Lommy
Sally ++Agan
Fea ++Boro
Gwath ++Boro (2)
Nienna ++Fea
Shasta ++Boro (3)
Lommy ++Shasta
Eomer ++Nienna
Boro --tp (2)
Izzy ++Shasta (2)
Inzil ++Nienna (2)
Green ++Shasta (3)
Mith --tp (1)
tp ++Lari
Lommy --Shasta (2)
Lommy ++Nienna (3)
Boro ++Nienna (4)
McCaber ++Nienna (5)
Agan ++Shasta (3)
Mith ++Shasta (4)

Thoughts:

Lari's vote is weird, because she states she voted for me hoping that I won't be lynched. Along the same lines is Sally, who votes Agan because "she won't mind" and Mira, who votes for Sally because "she won't hurt me back". Those are kind of weird in my mind.

Supposing Boro is innocent, then perhaps Gwath or Shasta could be baddies sending another innocent into a tie for the lead.

Supposing Shasta is innocent, Izzy doesn't look great for hopping on the bandwagon. Especially if it was to save a guilty Boro.

If both Boro and Shasta are innocent, then perhaps Inzil doesn't look so good for elevating a fourth innocent to multi-vote status.

And of course the oft quoted Boro vote does sound weird. Why so confident about a bad result, and if so, why not give Shasta a vote? But seeing as Boro had three votes himself, I am more than willing to let that comment go, for I can testify to the fact that when you are under the gun, all you can think about is padding the margin of the leader, no matter how innocent you think they may be.

Agan and Mith tried to do in Shasta there at the end, and seeing as they had no reason to save Nienna (from a baddie saving a baddie perspective) their votes look rather good.

Anyway, there's more I could say, but I really shouldn't at this point.

Now, I'm off to try and read Boro and Mith from Day 1.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

And of course the oft quoted Boro vote does sound weird. Why so confident about a bad result, and if so, why not give Shasta a vote? But seeing as Boro had three votes himself, I am more than willing to let that comment go, for I can testify to the fact that when you are under the gun, all you can think about is padding the margin of the leader, no matter how innocent you think they may be.

The thing that bothers me in Boro's vote is that when he voted there was Nienna, Shasta and himself all with three votes. Nienna was no more on the lead than Shasta was. Boro's vote for Nienna seems as if he was very reluctant to do it and as if he had no choice when he actually did have. So, as I'm wary of Shasta already, I wonder if they could be fellows and thus Boro was working to save his fellow's skin in addition to his own. Or then an innocent Boro voted the one he thought was less bad out of two bad possibilities. Dunno what to think, but this certainly puzzles me.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Green

The thing that bothers me in Boro's vote is that when he voted there was Nienna, Shasta and himself all with three votes. Nienna was no more on the lead than Shasta was.

If that was the case then I think my tally is wrong. I had Nienna at three and Shasta only at two when Boro voted.

[Mithalwen]

Boromir, I haven't decided about you at all but if I came back composed it was due to a night's sleep and a dose of evening primrose oil. Go figure.

[Boromir88]

If that was the case then I think my tally is wrong. I had Nienna at three and Shasta only at two when Boro voted.~the phantom

Nope, your tally is correct. It was me - 3, Nienna - 3, Shasta - 2 when I voted.

I did think about creating a 3 way tie to see how the last voters went, but was reminded that we have Hansel and Gretel who can really muddy up the voting tallies. Putting Nienna in the lead would then give me the best shot of surviving.

McCaber and I cross voted, so when he voted he was definitely wanting to save me. He might have done it to throw me off a baddie's trail, but despite not posting that much, he has always been a good judge of character. So, that vote looks innocent to me. Also, I don't know, I just think wolf McCaber would jump at the chance to be able to lynch me, he doesn't come off as the Agan buttering up type.

See I disagree with you about Mith and Agan's votes, simply because of the Hansel and Gretel factor. Of course, Nienna turned up innocent, but with the finally tally being.

Nienna: 5
Shasta: 4
Me: 3

Any one of us could have ended up lynched. So, I don't think there votes look like a concerted effort to save anyone, but could be a way to push 3 people to a chance to be lynched because of Hansel and Gretel. It really looks more like votes where they didn't care who ended up getting it, and also Nerwen still had to vote. It might be known that her internet connection gives her problems, but who knew she without question she wasn't there?

Edit: crossed with Nerwen and Kath

[Mithalwen]

Boro you aren't making sense. If I were a wolf why would I have drawn attention to the Hansel and Gretel factor which everyone else seemed to have forgotten? Why would I have draw attention to the fact that Shasta had made himself a bit of a liability to the Village? If I were a wolf I woudl have wanted any other lynched and hoped that Shasta was Little Red Cap.

And on that subject since Nienna and Lommie were ordos that means Shasta, if he is telling the truth has a one in three chance of being Little Red Cap. Uneasy lies the head that wears the Red Riding Hood....

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Side note: I meant to post this two hours ago, but had to run off to organize my horribly complicated life.

---

Kath-

Lari is Jenny, Mira is Ashley.

Have fun!

---

Perhaps Lommy was a safe kill. She didn't really stand out, at least not to me, though to be fair, I wasn't really around to notice much. I know you guys have mentioned it, but I thought I'd add my thoughts on that.

Here's what's going on in my head: the bad guys don't all have the same skill set/needs. The wolf is searching for Red, Rumplie is trying to avoid the attention of the chick whose baby xe stole, and they're all, as far as I can remember, trying to avoid being dreamed (duh) or guessed by a Lover.

And so I'm thinking that Lommy was killed less because she stood out - there are too many people that the bad guys *need* to kill - and more because they need to kill a bunch of people and may as well not leave a trail.

Now if the baddies are playing hard to get, it's not necessarily a sign that they have any particular personality. Just that they're capable of laying low.

I don't want to replace Nerwen as Captain Obvious but the bad guys want the Lovers around just as much as the village does: neither side wins if the Lovers survive, right? So maybe the wolves though Lom was half a Lover pair? That's who I'd have gone after if I was a bad guy- someone I thought was a standalone enemy. That or the seer. I mean, the seer is obviously a major target, but in this game, with so many roles, I'd be hard pressed to figure out as a wolf who I'd kill first, and that's sad since my typical playing strategy is to think "What would the wolves do?"

Sorry, my brain just shut off. Too much going on. I need to finish getting ready for my last big college shebang (at least the last one I actually care about), and that requires things like lip color, heels, and carefully chosen undergarments.

I'll be back later, hopefully with a functional mind.

[Boromir88]

Yes, but there's the Shasta question. If Mith's a wolf and he's her fellow, I don't see why she'd be so hot to Fenris him... and if she's a wolf and he's not, she tried hard hard to get someone lynched who had just announced he was an ordo, and thus a Little Red Cap candidate.~Nerwen

But who said Shasta was a wolf? I have no reason to doubt his ordo claim, and even though he was not chosen last night, I still don't. It could be that they want to push for his lynching today. Even if Shasta is LRC what benefit would it be for the wolves to night kill him and turn him, now that the talk swirled around him that he really could be LRC? If he is, and is turned, he will be lynched immediately...so might as well keep him around as an easy lynch choice, since he already claimed to be an ordo, but people will grow more and more suspicious if he doesn't wind up night killed. I might have just talked myself in circles, but maybe you can make sense of that.

Plus it is Agan's and Mith's jump on his ordo claim that is suspicious. I mean they both seemed to over-react. I can see reason in people questioning his claim, but both stressed "Woah Shasta made an ordo claim! Watch the sneaky wolf trying to get us off his tail!"

Mith immediately jumps on it within a span of 11 minutes:

Err Shasta, if you are an innocent, is that really the most helpful thing you could post? Not going to be any Captain Oates acts from you then are there?~post 71

But she votes for Shasta not because of a real belief he is a wolf, but to play cautious and if he is an ordo than he could be LRC. But the problem occurs when she continues to go after him, because his reveal was entirely unhelpful and therefor it makes him look like a wolf.

Also I want to look at Shasta again. His reveal was so spectacularly unhelpful as an opening gambit I wonder if it is genuine. If he is not a wolf then BBW may well take a punt.... since they have nothing to lose. From the baddies perspective he is either a plain ordo with a 20% chance of being LRC or he is a gifted bluffing.

From the goodies (goody goody gum gum) perspective he has made himself vulnerable and a liability. Not quite sure that it deserves a preemptive lynch - though it is tempting. And he could be that gifted bluffing...~152

BBW will surely check out Shasta if he knows he isn't a baddie. There is a 1/5 chance of him being LRC. I am just saying that if we aren't more certain about another candidate, lynching Shasta is damage limitation. Assuming he is telling the truth. Ruthless but when it comes to it we haven't got much margin for error.~163

The bolded part is interesting, because there is an interesting change from Shasta being a wolf, falsely claiming ordinariness, to now making a pretty assured statement that there is a 1/5 chance he is LRC, so it would be good to lynch him if there aren't other choices.

If Shasta were a wolf then it was an interesting opening gambit to make himself so conspicuous. And of course it makes lynching him a better idea!!!~177

Then back to Shasta's claim that make him look like a wolf and it would be good to lynch him.
And Agan in post 80:

Basically that's not a good thing to say for an ordo since it narrows down the field of possible Red Caps and therefore makes it easier for the Big Bad Wolf to guess her identity.

Agan's reaction looks a little better, because it is not an over-reaction, just a scolding that it wasn't helpful. I guess it's the vote for him that worries me.

Where with Mith, it was pretty consistent pushing towards Shasta. She did get us thinking about LRC and Hansel and Gretel, but that doesn't make her look innocent in anyway, just helpful, and wolves can be definitely be helpful. Other than that, her day was filled with Shasta, and going back and fourth on his ordo claim.

Glad I was able to warm up, I feel like I am really hitting my stride after accumulating some rust.

Edit: crossed with a lot of people and really don't want to see who it all was with

[Boromir88]

Boro you aren't making sense.~Mith

But that is when I do my best work. It is when I am making sense and excellently analyzing seer posts when you have to watch out for me.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as Lommy dying- not bad. Not that I don't enjoy her company, but that's as good a result as we could hope for (besides a Ranger save). After my read of her last night I was leaning innocent for her, but certainly not Gifted. She seemed peppy and fun at times, but not nervous or jumpy. She also seemed like she had the village's interests in mind, but didn't strike me as someone with heavy responsibility weighing her down.

It seems a bit odd to me that Lommy was taken out the Night after voting for Nienna, since she didn't show any particular clues that should have made her an obvious target. I guess it's coincidence though, cos otherwise it would mean some sort of complex scheme is in play, and at the moment that's just too much to try and puzzle out.