Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 11:22 AM

My intuition isn't even consistent right now. At first it said Nog was the wolf, then Lalaith, and now Nog again...

I can almost feel the presence of all the deceased innocents, watching us and maybe even hoping I will vote one way or the other. Perhaps, on the other side, they know who the last wolf is. I wish they could tell me!

I am generally against double, let alone triple, lynches in principle, and I dislike the way Nogrod make such a decision unilaterally, with no discussion. True, we all allowed him to by voting as we did, but engineering a triple lynch out of the blue at the last minute is just - well, something I disapprove of. But I shouldn't vote based on disapproval, but suspicion.

Lalaith could absolutely be a wolf as well. She has done nothing, really, that convinces me of her innocence (I don't find the failure to help Fea theory convincing at all - Fea might have even expected to go early).

Nog's behavior toDay - I don't like it. As I said, he seems to be waiting to see what direction things turn, urging us to suspect each other, and only feigning confusion for himself (it strikes me more as indifference than confusion - either one of us lynched is fine by him). He doesn't seem particularly concerned about his own vote.

Then again, Lalaith's behavior looks wolfish too. She stays cool, pretty much disregarding any suspicion directed toward herself, focusing on suspecting Nogrod, mainly, which would be a safe bet for her, if she's a wolf, if I actually started the day bluntly stating a misguided suspicion. In fact, it was just what I was looking for from her when I stated my intent to vote Nog in that way - a sense of calm certainty, little reason to consider the possibility that I might be a wolf, only to cement my vote for Nog and justify her own.

On the other hand, Nog's reaction was not what I would have expected from an innocent, either. I would have expected more effort to convince me of his innocence if he thought I was likely innocent, or, if he thought I was suspicious, more effort to gain Lalaith's cooperation. I don't get the impression, though, he's really making serious wolf-hunting efforts in either direction.

I started this little speech with an idea at the back of my head of ending it with a vote, but that vote has changed three times while I was talking.

Well... my intuition leans slightly more in one direction, I think... and I also think that what remains of this day is likely to shed much light on the matter. Actually, I can hardly stand the suspense.

And it seems Nog's talking right now... what he's saying reminds me of something that's bothered me about his posts... he says here "without a wolf's knowledge that's how it is", and it seems to me like he keeps making statements like that. It seems overly defensive, spelling things out too much, I don't know. Maybe it even speaks in his favor. *shakes head* But no. Then he goes on to say that's hard for an innocent to do... I don't like it at all. It's a very wolfish thing to say. It's almost as if he's telling us exactly what he deliberately did in order to appear innocent, as if he's congratulating himself on his own cleverness, right in the open.

No, no, no, you both look suspicious... you both look so evil. I need a drink.

Nogrod · 07-27-2009, 11:34 AM

"Here, take some of this fine Chablis I found from the cellar. It goes fine with the onion soup also..."

Nogrood had listened to what Rikae had to say and was a bit confused.

"Well if the Day begins with you both saying you would most probably vote for me what else can I do but to defend? And really I have no definite idea about you two. That should show from my words thus far. But I'd sure love to hear more from you.

Funny... as soon as Lalaith started to speak she started to look bad as well. That's the way it goes as well. Sure, looking at her analysis gives me an air of her trying to pile up any possible or impossible thing against me - with some careful "then agains" - and if it was to be an analysis of us both she has remarkably little to say about you Rikae - like she foremostly tried to get you convinced of my wolvery so that you wouldn't suspect her.

Well, to be fair you have done quite little thus far so less things to analyse - but still I find her comments on you merely superficial or neutral while she really tries to pick up with anything I've said and done.

I'm happy to see that was not a 100% success.

Okay, I need to finish the soup but will be back right away after that.

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 11:39 AM

It looks as though we're all holding our votes for the last minute, then? Say, let's all vote for the person to the right (or, er, east). That way the wolf doesn't win in any case, and our hostess may find it interesting enough to resurrect us all (if anyone is really dead at all) and set us free!

Nogrod · 07-27-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

It looks as though we're all holding our votes for the last minute, then?

Well, I sure would love to hear more from you both before voting... and I'll try to give my two cents after I have eaten... So not just holding a vote but actually trying to form an opinion before voting."

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 11:54 AM

I'm not so sure there's anything left to find out/say, unfortunately. I'm not sure what my vote will be either at this point, but it may come down to a whim or a hunch in the moment. What do you want to know from me, that I haven't said already?

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 12:05 PM

Well, I'm around, and willing to talk - you say you want to hear more. Even if Lalaith doesn't say a thing, if you're innocent, figuring out my role alone would be enough for you. So where are you, Nogrod?

I have a question for you. Why have you been so eager to point out how things you've been doing would be difficult for a wolf to do? It's what's tripping my radar most about you lately.

Nogrod · 07-27-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I have a question for you. Why have you been so eager to point out how things you've been doing would be difficult for a wolf to do? It's what's tripping my radar most about you lately.

What else can one do in this situation? I need to make the innocent one of you to trust me because otherwise we lose. That is one way of trying to achieve that goal - making you consider how much probable it is that certain actions I've done are innocent - for that natural reason that they are innocent actions.

Well, huh, there it goes then! *glances at Lalaith's vote* I do hope you Rikae are an innocent now.

Nogrod · 07-27-2009, 12:20 PM

Okay.

On Day1 the situation was as follows when Lalaith voted:

Fea 2 (wolf)
McCaber 2
Eönwë 1
Nessa 1
Inziladun 1 (wolf)

So to help Fea she should have voted either for McCaber, Nessa or Eönwë.

Now she probably knew it very well that I was suspecting Fea right there and there could be a third vote for her. But voting for McCaber could be too straightforwards - especially if Fea got lynched anyway. So to a wolf-Lalaith that wouldn't have been an option.

So how about Nessa or Eönwë? But even that wouldn't have guaranteed her Fea's live - but someone might look at her as trying to save her bringing more contenders to the front. So a new candidate? That would look good indeed.

It has looked so good I have basically trusted her ever since.

Lalaith · 07-27-2009, 12:09 PM

Quote:

She stays cool, pretty much disregarding any suspicion directed toward herself,

Well, as the suspicion directed towards me seems to consist of 'oh she's so calm', well what would you like me to do - stick a banana in my ear and run around screaming 'everybody PANIC!!!'.....
My huge problem today has been that I really don't find either of you very guilty.

Nogrod, I accept some of your points against my analysis actually - I concede that if you are a wolf, as I have to conclude you are, you have played brilliantly.
And I do actually have to vote now, this brinkmanship is making me feel dreadfully nervous (so much for calm) and also there's Stuff (not allowed on the thread).
On balance, there is the stuff I mentioned earlier, and also, what Rikae is saying today just strikes more of a chord with me.
I just hope I'm right.
++Nogrod

Nogrod · 07-27-2009, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

What do you want to know from me, that I haven't said already?

"Well for starters an answer to the question are you a wolf or an innocent would be just fine.

Quote:

I'm not so sure there's anything left to find out/say, unfortunately. I'm not sure what my vote will be either at this point, but it may come down to a whim or a hunch in the moment.

Sadly you're possibly quite right there.

But I will revisit that Day1 voting once more to see whether my mantra of "Lalaith acted against Fea's best interest so she must be innocent" is as believable I have taken it to be thus far.

I mean that might be a second look well taken at this point. Other than that we can discuss if would all be around soonish. That might help in making one's mind.

The problem sure is that as soon as an innocent gives a wrong vote the wolf will capitulize on it and win. So therefore the carefulness..."

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

"Well for starters an answer to the question are you a wolf or an innocent would be just fine.

I'm an innocent. Does that help?

Rikae · 07-27-2009, 12:15 PM

And you're right. See? I'm not capitalizing on Lalaith's vote... if you're innocent, so am I.

Bah, it all comes down to me, then.

Talk, people. Somebody make a wolvish slip in the next 45 minutes, OK?

07-27-2009, 11:34 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	"Here, take some of this fine Chablis I found from the cellar. It goes fine with the onion soup also..." Nogrood had listened to what Rikae had to say and was a bit confused. "Well if the Day begins with you both saying you would most probably vote for me what else can I do but to defend? And really I have no definite idea about you two. That should show from my words thus far. But I'd sure love to hear more from you. Funny... as soon as Lalaith started to speak she started to look bad as well. That's the way it goes as well. Sure, looking at her analysis gives me an air of her trying to pile up any possible or impossible thing against me - with some careful "then agains" - and if it was to be an analysis of us both she has remarkably little to say about you Rikae - like she foremostly tried to get you convinced of my wolvery so that you wouldn't suspect her. Well, to be fair you have done quite little thus far so less things to analyse - but still I find her comments on you merely superficial or neutral while she really tries to pick up with anything I've said and done. I'm happy to see that was not a 100% success. Okay, I need to finish the soup but will be back right away after that. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

07-27-2009, 12:20 PM	#8
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. On Day1 the situation was as follows when Lalaith voted: Fea 2 (wolf) McCaber 2 Eönwë 1 Nessa 1 Inziladun 1 (wolf) So to help Fea she should have voted either for McCaber, Nessa or Eönwë. Now she probably knew it very well that I was suspecting Fea right there and there could be a third vote for her. But voting for McCaber could be too straightforwards - especially if Fea got lynched anyway. So to a wolf-Lalaith that wouldn't have been an option. So how about Nessa or Eönwë? But even that wouldn't have guaranteed her Fea's live - but someone might look at her as trying to save her bringing more contenders to the front. So a new candidate? That would look good indeed. It has looked so good I have basically trusted her ever since. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

07-27-2009, 11:22 AM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	My intuition isn't even consistent right now. At first it said Nog was the wolf, then Lalaith, and now Nog again... I can almost feel the presence of all the deceased innocents, watching us and maybe even hoping I will vote one way or the other. Perhaps, on the other side, they know who the last wolf is. I wish they could tell me! I am generally against double, let alone triple, lynches in principle, and I dislike the way Nogrod make such a decision unilaterally, with no discussion. True, we all allowed him to by voting as we did, but engineering a triple lynch out of the blue at the last minute is just - well, something I disapprove of. But I shouldn't vote based on disapproval, but suspicion. Lalaith could absolutely be a wolf as well. She has done nothing, really, that convinces me of her innocence (I don't find the failure to help Fea theory convincing at all - Fea might have even expected to go early). Nog's behavior toDay - I don't like it. As I said, he seems to be waiting to see what direction things turn, urging us to suspect each other, and only feigning confusion for himself (it strikes me more as indifference than confusion - either one of us lynched is fine by him). He doesn't seem particularly concerned about his own vote. Then again, Lalaith's behavior looks wolfish too. She stays cool, pretty much disregarding any suspicion directed toward herself, focusing on suspecting Nogrod, mainly, which would be a safe bet for her, if she's a wolf, if I actually started the day bluntly stating a misguided suspicion. In fact, it was just what I was looking for from her when I stated my intent to vote Nog in that way - a sense of calm certainty, little reason to consider the possibility that I might be a wolf, only to cement my vote for Nog and justify her own. On the other hand, Nog's reaction was not what I would have expected from an innocent, either. I would have expected more effort to convince me of his innocence if he thought I was likely innocent, or, if he thought I was suspicious, more effort to gain Lalaith's cooperation. I don't get the impression, though, he's really making serious wolf-hunting efforts in either direction. I started this little speech with an idea at the back of my head of ending it with a vote, but that vote has changed three times while I was talking. Well... my intuition leans slightly more in one direction, I think... and I also think that what remains of this day is likely to shed much light on the matter. Actually, I can hardly stand the suspense. And it seems Nog's talking right now... what he's saying reminds me of something that's bothered me about his posts... he says here "without a wolf's knowledge that's how it is", and it seems to me like he keeps making statements like that. It seems overly defensive, spelling things out too much, I don't know. Maybe it even speaks in his favor. shakes head But no. Then he goes on to say that's hard for an innocent to do... I don't like it at all. It's a very wolfish thing to say. It's almost as if he's telling us exactly what he deliberately did in order to appear innocent, as if he's congratulating himself on his own cleverness, right in the open. No, no, no, you both look suspicious... you both look so evil. I need a drink.

07-27-2009, 11:39 AM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	It looks as though we're all holding our votes for the last minute, then? Say, let's all vote for the person to the right (or, er, east). That way the wolf doesn't win in any case, and our hostess may find it interesting enough to resurrect us all (if anyone is really dead at all) and set us free!

07-27-2009, 11:54 AM	#5
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	I'm not so sure there's anything left to find out/say, unfortunately. I'm not sure what my vote will be either at this point, but it may come down to a whim or a hunch in the moment. What do you want to know from me, that I haven't said already?

07-27-2009, 12:05 PM	#6
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Well, I'm around, and willing to talk - you say you want to hear more. Even if Lalaith doesn't say a thing, if you're innocent, figuring out my role alone would be enough for you. So where are you, Nogrod? I have a question for you. Why have you been so eager to point out how things you've been doing would be difficult for a wolf to do? It's what's tripping my radar most about you lately.

07-27-2009, 12:15 PM	#12
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	And you're right. See? I'm not capitalizing on Lalaith's vote... if you're innocent, so am I. Bah, it all comes down to me, then. Talk, people. Somebody make a wolvish slip in the next 45 minutes, OK?