Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIX: Were-Librarians

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

I've been on, but admittedly too timid to begin the post of a new day.

Raise your hand if you knew Form was one of the lovers?

No. I wonder if the wolf did. These aren't the usual lovers– I'd say the wolf would have wanted to avoid killing Form, since his better half now gets to be Seer- for-a-day.

By the way– it seems Boro and Sally were trying to impersonate the Lovers on Day One.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I wonder if the wolf did. These aren't the usual lovers– I'd say the wolf would have wanted to avoid killing Form, since his better half now gets to be Seer- for-a-day.

By the way– it seems Boro and Sally were trying to impersonate the Lovers on Day One.

Perhaps, but as there are still quite a few players on the board, it will make it harder for the Lover-turned-Seer to narrow down their two choices. Either way, our classmates are down another good guy now.

In hindsight, that's exactly what I thought as well. What worries me now, however, is Brinn's attempt to save Boro by voting for me on Day 2. Was she gullible and truly didn't believe he was evil? Or was she trying to sacrifice herself to save a wolf - in which case, she may possibly be the Snitch.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Or was she trying to sacrifice herself to save a wolf - in which case, she may possibly be the Snitch.

Quite likely... look at her dialogue with Boro near the DL.

[Nerwen]

I missed most of the drama yesterDay– all I can say is I'm surprised Boro wasn't unanimously lynched after his little "Hakon, tell the class why you think Mac is the Ranger" stunt. But then, I'm surprised he made a mistake like that in the first place.

EDT:fixed typo that gave the opposite meaning to what I intended.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I missed most of the drama yesterDay– all I can say is I'm surprised Boro was unanimously lynched after his little "Hakon, tell the class why you think Mac is the Ranger" stunt. But then, I'm surprised he made a mistake like that in the first place.

It seems that two out of the three librarians in this game have been playing themselves as wolves almost too obvious to even be thought as wolves. It makes me wonder - though, not hope - if the third wolf will keep a lower profile than his/her other two, deceased counterparts. S/he is quite outnumbered at this point.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I missed most of the drama yesterDay– all I can say is I'm surprised Boro was unanimously lynched after his little "Hakon, tell the class why you think Mac is the Ranger" stunt. But then, I'm surprised he made a mistake like that in the first place.

Nerwen, does it surprise you he was lynched even after he was revealed to be a wolf?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Nerwen, does it surprise you he was lynched even after he was revealed to be a wolf?

Sorry, that's a typo. I meant to write "I'm surprised Boro wasn't unanimously lynched."

Better fix that.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, since there's only one librarian left, at least we may be able to figure out a pattern to the Night killings. When there are three wolves, it's almost impossible, but a lone baddie would have been trying to save themselves since they're so outnumbered now.


So who would want Form dead?

[autume98]

Here's a list of all the posts that Form made on Days 1 and 2. I wasn't sure what to include and what not to include. Hopefully this will help.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Fea, Fea--that's just mean! Using the Internet against me, and before I've even had a chance to shower after a weekend-long camping trip! And while reading up on (an admittedly shortish) Day 1 at that! For shame!

I shall not, however, hold it against you... since it's my own fault I'm not, probably, invisible yet...

I shall go see to that...

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Not to pre-empt Mac's ability to answer the query, which was his to answer, after all, but speaking from my own Day 1 position (which everyone will remember, if they played "back in high school," is based on the fundamental assertion that Day 1 is useless until after the fact), what Mac says makes sense.

On Day 1 there is no trend to anyone's silence, for the very reason that there's no trend to anything. Lists are useless enough to begin with on Day 1 (a point brought up by Mac which I must appreciate... even though he goes on to list the list-makers. However, if one is to go so far as to list people, it makes no sense to list the silent ones toDay, since there's more nothing to list about them than about the people who HAVE been talking.

I need a shower and I fear I'm getting my sister's cold from camping, but I'm here, and, I must confess, I'm still not seeing anything in Day 1 to point to criminal guilt other than the wildest of readings-into.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Hakon's tag-along vote for Sally, coming right after Nienna's for the same, looks opportunist in the same way Boro thinks Sally's tag-along vote for Nerwen appears that way. Of the two, I'm inclined to chasten Sally more for this, both because it's earlier and I've come to expect more originality from her--Hakon is still an unknown to me, so I can't comment. Of course, it is still Day 1... but that's a card even I shouldn't overplay.

This is a reply to Boro's question to Mac about how leaving non-posters out of list making speaks in their favor.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Now... I've sat out a lot of these games since I was a carefree pre-university student, and I've not read most of the ones I've missed, so there's a lot of WW-culture current that I'm not up with--but one thing I have picked up on is that Nienna has something of an unreasonable penchant for being unreasonably lynched on Days 1. Which means that, coupled with Mac's almost immediate reply to Nienna's post--a Day-ending post, suggesting she won't be back before the end of the Day to defend herself--I am really not liking Mac's quoted post. It's a little too easy. He sees a couple bandwaggons, says he doesn't like them, and then expresses this by starting--potentially--one of the easiest Day 1 bandwaggons there is?

I'd rather vote for a Sally-- or Nerwen--waggon at this point, than jump on that.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Oh dear--my abject apologies on that matter. I can't seem to find a post by you to that effect at all... nor can I seem to find it by anyone else, though I have yet just enough faith in my earlier self to assume I wasn't making it up. This is a trifle embarrassing, but as I've had rather a heady weekend, I hope it won't prove trend-setting.

Bother...

*goes to see if he can find whatever post he attributed to Boro*

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I was really quite hoping for someone to slip and declare their wolvery, or maybe for the wisdom of Solomon to cleave someone's fact from their fiction, or barring all that, maybe a good, old-fashioned, divine revelation...

But no. I'm getting steadily sicker and more confuséd.

Nerwen's protests have me chivalrously afraid to vote her. Sally's bandwaggon is admittedly weak--I agree full about her point re: Hakon, and I've already said I don't get Mac's Nienna vote.

Where does this leave me?

I dunno... the only real discord clear to me is Hakon's vote, which could be newblerie as easier as wolvery.

But you work with what you've got...

++ Hakon

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Well, said Form, I'm back...

Which is to say that I've read over the thread, with greater detail here, less detail there. Unfortunately, as usual, I'm not having wolves leap out of the shadows and declare themselves--which is a crying shame, since that means I can look forward to the tedious task of trying to sort things out the old-fashioned way.

On the very recent (relative to the rest of the day) note that Mac could be a Gifted/Wolf and Boro would be stupendously foolish to point out the former if that's the case... I haven't got any good reasons for thinking it at the moment, but as far as all that goes, my gut is on the side of Boromir and says that Mac could be a WW. The point was raised earlier that I might be a late-coming wolf voting Hakon in the hopes of saving Sally--I'm not, but I'm not so young at this as to think you'll take my word for it. The point has also already been made, I think, that Mac could have been doing the same thing with his Nienna vote. Oddly, perhaps, that line of reasoning doesn't especially bother me--if, indeed, it's true (as we cannot tell till the post-game) what Mac says about not knowing Nienna's Day 1 Death-Penchant. Perhaps this is just me and the skewed perspective of having visited said Downer.

However... even if Mac didn't seem guilty on the start-a-different-bandwaggon note, he does seem extra jumpy about Boro at the moment, and as I don't really know what to make of that, I'm inclined to ascribe it to Wolvery.

More anon...

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Well, I'll do my best--expecting, of course, that even if it satisfies you, Boro, it'll give someone else cause for complaint. Anyway, it is part confusion--but not because I came in late in the Day. I did, of course, but I had hours enough to catch myself up to the action--just. I could argue, all the same, that it was post-Long Weekend exhaustion, mixed with the brain-buzzing beginnings of a head cold, but while that undoubtedly didn't contribute anything useful, it'd be unsporting to give my physical state late in Day 1 much leverage.

(Although... I still have the cold today, and absolutely puttered my way through work in a sitting standstill, so if you want to feel sorry for me, now's the day to do it--the cold's worse--but fuzzy though the edges of my skull are, I still think I can reason and gut-instinct with my usual catastrophe.)

Anyway, what was basically going through my mind yesterDay was what I told Mac about his vote for Nienna: I really didn't like it, for the simple reason that it came, more or less to my eyes, out of nowhere, and--given the knowledge stowed away in some back compartment of my mind about Nienna being the new Saucepan Person for an abnormally high Day 1 deathrate, it seemed--if any vote on Day 1 can seem so--like a potentially malicious vote. More obviously so that than the whole morass of Nerwen and Sally

You also have to remember, Boro that yesterday was a Day 1. I may have decided that Mac's vote for Nienna was wrong, but that's hardly enough of a reason right there to jump on a Sally or Nerwen bandwaggon. Who to vote for then? Well, the usual Day 1 conditions held, and I went for someone who wasn't objectively all that suspicious, but had just touched my instincts the wrong way, so felt more appropriate than a jump-on bandwaggon vote. Call me timid, but I don't like casting potentially decisive votes on Day 1. Given that I don't feel there are generally any good reasons to think someone's guilty on Day 1, it simply puts way too much emphasis on a vote I'd rather not make. If we'd have gone by mere alarm-setting off, I'd have voted Mac, but I'm still good enough at second-guessing myself to say that that would have been the usual Day 1-jumping-at-shadows.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Although my gut's still on Boro's side here, you do bring up an interesting point--I'd completely forgotten about the Cobbler. That would, certainly, put a whole different dimension on yesterday's events. The thought occurred to me, reading over yesterday's posts, that the whole Boro and Sally smooch-fest might have been one or the other's attempt to play at the Lovers--I did not think it likely that both would have done that, but in the same way a genuine Boro-Innocent would impersonate a seer to protect the seer, I could see a Boro-Cobbler impersonating a Lover to confuse the seer--and I could see Sally having played along with with it either way.

But I'm still not sold on it. Boromir's reasoning makes sense to me, and, anyway, I'm not sure why he would have picked Sally. If, as a Cobbler, he thought her innocent, then he's giving shelter to an Innocent--which makes no sense. If he thought her a wolf, it certainly would certainly give her protection, if the seer bought it--but would the seer buy it? And what reason would Boro-Cobbler have for thinking Sally a wolf at that stage in the game?

Yeah... not sold on it...

And Brinn has earned a vote. That's... actually not a bad case, prima facie, but I don't know if I like it yet. Nessa seems to be one of those players that stays comfortably below the surface--or, in other words, I can't read her.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

If I may play conciliator, Mac need not have meant "what Boro himself would do as a Cobbler" so much as "what a cobbler, who might be Boro might do as a Cobbler"--which is quite another thing entirely. Of course, especially as I'm reading this into the single quote snippet in Boro's last post, if, in fact, Mac is imputing that he can delve into Boro's very psyche and retrieve the secrets of his probable actions--then, by all means, continue to pursue this course of argument. If nothing else, the defences Boro mounts and the attacks Mac offers should afford the rest of us the chance to pick out more of a vibe on both you.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Ermm... occasionally, yes... but so often on the order of a red herring or a complete accident that it'd be foolish at best, in my opinion, to base an argument on it. The same goes for locations and signatures.

Of course, after the game these things can be the most blatant of referents back, but in-game I've never seen them indicative.

Caveat: I could be horribly wrong. 'tis possible...

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Now... I'm torn... I don't claim to have an instinctual feel of how Boro plays, but him being noisy, excited, and too touchy is, I think, typical enough that none of the alarms are going off.

But...

But...

He's really taking this "mac and cheese" thing to heart. And I can't decide if it's an Innocent that's revelling in post-Kentian* ability to give us silly pictures of himself... or if he's a wild-eyed cobbler revelling in his tailor-made role... or a wolf that's trying too hard.

I don't lean towards the last, and the other two are indistinguishable, half the time, until the endgame or postgame. And while I agree with Mac that we should bag a Cobbler if we can, and call it a victory, I still think there's hope of catching the real thing.

To this end, I'm especially thinking of Brinn, chiefly for the reasons Nessa gave in voting her, and I'm not averse at the moment to doing the same. If anyone has a reason not to, now's the time to talk me out of it.



*To the unaware newer members... it's a long story. The synopsis is that Boro has not shared pictures online for most of his several year BD membership.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I understand this... the mac and cheese thing was purely a slip of the fingers, completely and utterly unrelated to the game. It's just the energy of the matter that has me thinking.



Your point, about actively flushing out the wolves is well taken. I have no issue with the point, from a purely philosophical standpoint. The thing is, though, I'm also a philosopher enough to admit to myself that I can't tell any difference between a worked up Boromir who's innocent, and a lupine Boromir who might be leading us down the garden path.

For what it's worth, I don't think you're a wolf, and since I do incline to think Brinn is a wolf, you're not likely to get my vote today... and depending how the vote goes, who dies tonight, etc, etc, we'll see how the longterm views you.



The fact that you're so irritated Mac can't agree with you on this point amuses me to no end, and somewhat raises your stocks in my mind. It is, as I see it, almost exactly like myself and Nogrod when we happen to play together. If we're both innocent, we'll destroy each other by Day 3 because we think exactly the opposite in terms of strategy and philosophy about this game. In other words... good luck with converting him!

Anyway, although I'm easy enough to lure into these theory-of-the-game arguments, I think (remembering Nogrod...), we may be arguing ourselves away from the wolves at this point. I don't think Mac is a wolf, and I don't think Boro is a wolf. I guess this means I ought to move on to someone I DO think is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Brinn did say on the Admin thread that she preferred if the game didn't start until tomorrow (Thursday), the implication being that she was not going to be around much before then, but since she's playing anyway, I assume she isn't completely absent. In any case, it is never fair to discount a wolf on the basis of quietness. One or two of us have been indicted over the years on account of getting unusually giddy and posting too much, but Brinn, at least, has carried off the quiet, unassuming, lupine killer role before, if my memory serves.

And, really, the way this game is going, I think I'm finding myself exonerating mentally everyone in proportion to how much they're talking. It's not that Boro and Mac are innocent... but there's so much more reason I can grapple with to convince me they might be. Autume, to reflect the other side of the coin, is a big, black, question mark.

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Is anyone else somewhat spooked by Brinn's flippant response to her somewhat-threatened lynching?

I realise I tend to base my judgements of people's roles in this game entirely too much on my read of their character--which means the newer the player, the more out to lunch I can be--but this seems ridiculously out of character for Brinn--or an innocent Brinn anyway.

An innocent Brinn, I'm thinking, would be royally ticked off at us for planning to kill her RIGHT before she can get more involved in the game (Brinn is a WW fiend, last I checked). So why is she so casual?

Because Brinn is an old hand at this, and won't make the same mistake Sally did. She won't overreact, go into hysterics, and try to argue her way out, beyond the brief acknowledgement that:



Which, if you ask me, is probably the sneakiest way to deflect the questions: don't focus on them, acknowledge them, and pretend they're minor.

It's all just a little too smooth for me... Rather than allaying my fears, as I expected a defensive Brinn to do when she finally got a chance to come online, this Brinn is cheerfully ready to go to the gallows, if that's what we decide.

Funnily, though, no mention of how it's not going to help the village any if we're down an innocent...

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Given that I didn't really reply in depth to either Fea or Nerwen, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Granted, that was also a bit of a throwaway line, tacked on because it occurred to me at the last moment, and agreed with the general tack of the post as it was already being composed--but hardly a serious argument in its own right.

It is, of course, quite ridiculously obvious. Maybe it's just the sense I get from Brinn--which is what I was trying to emphasize--a sense of slightly forced "the devil may care." Brinn's actions would have seemed normal to me, early in the day, when things can go one way or another, but we're into the homestretch now, and it just seems like she's trying too hard to blow us off the scent.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Funnily enough, Brinn's explanation for flippancy almost convinces me... but not quite. Or, rather, barring Brinn I haven't got any wolf-candidates, and while I approve of culling the silent, I can't quite justify it when there is the possibility of a real wolf.

I'd intended to stick around longer--like yesterDay--but that wrought havoc with my cold last time I did that, and I have two days yet to work this week... best not to risk it.

++ Brinniel

[Nessa Telrunya]

Thanks for getting those together, Tum, that saves a lot of trouble.

My conclusion, is that, were last Night's kill to be a revenge, it would point to either Hakon or Brinn. But that would be too obvious, both of them are smarter than to do something that blatantly points to them.

Any thoughts?

[Macalaure]

Boro and Form dead... that means a lot of analysing work toDay. I'm happy that both were quite occupied with me yesterDay. Since I know what I am, I can skip all that.

I still wonder about the wilwa-kill. Since Boro pulled two tricks to flush out gifteds, the librarians are very aware how dangerous those are. But why did they think wilwa could be gifted? Maybe they're applying more than one strategy at a time...

I wouldn't be surprised if they killed Form because the snitch gave them the name.

Let's analyse Boro and Form then:

Day1:

Originally Posted by Boro

Plus his observation about the Nerwen votes, that seems an odd choice...Nerwen?

The openness of this statement, encouraging Nerwen's voters (Sally among them) to elaborate instead of dissuading people, gives me even more confidence in Nerwen's innocence.

Boro votes autume. Now, this could easily be lib-on-lib, however, coupled with the wilwa-kill - maybe the objective was simply not to kill the snitch? I do feel moderately better about autume now. I'm not sure what to think of Boro's "Why do you think autume is guilty then?" on Day2.

Form mainly pursues Hakon and defends Nienna on Day1.

Day2:

Boro is friendly with Fea throughout, suggesting to me that he's trying to win her unexpected trust, but I'm not sure.

He said Nienna looks most innocent, but he couldn't have otherwise - it was obvious. He's worried about Form's vote for Hakon, could be both an attempt to make Form look bad and one to defend Hakon.

#168 has to be treated with care, since Boro was already under pressure and made this post to appear helpful. Nerwen, Shasta and Nienna are innocent to him, but the reasons are so obvious that this doesn't change anything. He feels ok about Hakon, but is still watching him (keeping him innocent yet in nowhere-land makes me slightly suspicious). Autume and Brinn are getting a pass for not being there (watchworthy). He tries to set up alonariel as a scapegoat, which makes her look innocent.

He then picks up a point of Hakon against Form, making Hakon look worse.

The exchange between Boro and Brinn looks to me like Boro is trying to figure out whether Brinn is the snitch.

Form is almost totally immersed in the Boro-Mac thing at first, then strongly goes after Brinniel.

I daresay that Brinniel is one of the two the remaining lover will surely dream of, and I think it's a good choice.


Now, the votes:

Nessa -> Brinn (no reason to suspect)
Hakon -> Alona (very suspicious since it's after Boro brought her up as a scapegoat, then again, it's before any votes for Boro)
Mac -> Boro
Nienna -> autume (no reason to suspect)
Fea -> Nessa (not sure what to think)
Form -> Brinn
Brinn -> Brinn (peculiar)
Boro -> Alona
Alona -> Boro (makes her look very innocent)
Shasta -> Boro (same)
Boro --Alona -> Brinn
Brinn --Brinn -> Alona (suspicious, of course)


Bottom line:

Suspicious (in order):

Hakon (see above)
Brinn (I don't think she's a librarian, because if she were, I'm sure the plan to save Boro would have worked. She's a top snitch candidate, though. Form would be Brinn's natural choice to make the librarians dream of.)
Autume (some evidence looks suspicious, some innocent)
Fea (I've been wondering why she's been so friendly with Boro, but that's all I have against her)
Nessa (simply because nothing exonerates her)

Innocent (without order):

Nerwen
Nienna
Shasta
Alona

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

This group contains the last Librarian and the Snitch. I'm quite sure of it.

Alona
Autume
Brinn
Hakon
Nessa
Shasta

I don't think Alona is the wolf, and if Nessa or Hakon are, they really don't deserve to win because they've both posted less than the mod.

I have a hunch who the Evil Two are, but it's purely a hunch, so I don't want to say it and end up with people jumping down my throat for blithe commentary like Nerwen did yesterDay.



Time for breakfast, and must write an essay before I go anywhere or do anything else.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, since I believe the best way to go about this is to honestly tell what I think of everyone. That way, gifteds and librarian and ordos alike will know where they stand with me.

I know listers were practically dissected earlier, but I'd really rather everyone know what I'm thinking.


Fea, surprisingly doesn't look suspicious. She clearly stated earlier that even as a regular villager, she was too helpful to the wolves because of her semi-permanent status as a scapegoat. (Now that I think about it, I wonder why everyone is always suspecting her?)

Hakon I'm iffy about. Boro somehow managed to side with him, yet not at the same time, which makes me wonder if it's wolf-innocent or wolf-wolf going on there.

Tum always seems to suceed in giving necessary information for a debate, then stepping back to watch the fight. Maybe she's too nervous that giving an opinion might put the spotlight on her, or maybe it's not as innocent. I, for one, am more inclined to believe the former.

Nerwen I am almost entirely sure is innocent. On Day 1, Boro subtly encouraged people to vote her instead of sally. One librarian turning the vote from one of his fellows to the other? Unlikely.

Nienna. Has she said anything guilty? I don't hear any sirens when she does anything.

Mac's head to head with Boro probably speaks louder than anything I could say. It wasn't wolfish on his part, mainly for the reason that his posts spotlighted Boro and lead to his death, in my opinion. Smart, if he's innocent, and stupid if he's a wolf. I don't think he's stupid.

Shasta's vote killed Boro. Easy enough to interpret.

alona also voted Boro, who was trying to frame her at the time. Would a librarian really do that?

Brinn I believe to either be a snitch or librarian. Voting herself yesterDay makes me think the former rather than later, but her performance right before deadline was sketchy.


Nessa: Obviously innocent

edit:crossed since Mac