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Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
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#1 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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phantom-analysis
#542
Upset about Pitch's death, not pleased with anybody. #546 Responds to Rikae, saying didn't think Pitch was gifted, why he didn't vote Hakon, and to point out that his Rikae-vote did have backing. #549 Agrees with Mira's analysis that he was Pitch's first dream. #552 Makes sarcastic remarks about why people shouldn't vote him #556 Ponders forcing tie every day just to be a jerk Alon - "came under very slight threat halfway through, and so if she's guilty the Pitch voters don't look so good" Rikae - "threatened right at the deadline, so if she is guilty Tum rushing in and retracting her Hakon vote in favor of padding Pitch's lead (effectively savingRik's skin) looks extremely suspicious." If both are innocent we wouldn't have anything at all #558 Responds to Nerwen's question about feelings on Mira, determines doesn't know what to think #626 Defends Mira and her insanely idiotic slip, thinks is cobbler if anything Wants to know why Shasta voted Pitch, says doesn't make sense #644 Wants to know why morm is attracting votes Doesn't like the nickname confusion. Suggests lynching autumne to get rid of it. Sarcasm directed towards Rikae about a comment she made rhinoceros pudding #667 Doesn't want to vote morm or Brinn, tempted to vote Rikae again #672 "What's that you say, Shasta? You'd like to volunteer? Well, I'd love to help you out, but Sally said it first. She has to refuse before you can offer yourself. Sorry." Still picking a fight with Shasta, presumably over his vote for Pitch yesterDay #678 Says can't spot the bear and the people who thought Hakon spotted it are wrong #681 Introduces possibility that Alona and autumne are BFFs Considering voting for Rikae or Shasta or Tum because of nickname thing #688 Responds to Mac's question about why he didn't mention Inzil #691 "Well, now that an admittedly drunk Formendacil has voted Inzil, I certainly can't jump onto that train. See Mac. I just knew it wasn't for me. This is a sign. It confirms it." #712 "Shasta, Rikae, or Tum.... which one.... which one...." #714 Wonders why no one has elaborated on why Tum and Alona might be BFFs Ponders voting for whoever Brinn votes for just because she was nice to him #730 About the statement Rikae had made about being ready to trust him but then he said something that made her change her mind: "Well crap, Rikae. You say something like that so close to the deadline... And now I have to try a mad-speed goose chase to find out what the heck you're talking about. *sighs* Here goes..." #749 Votes Alona for dropping out of the game he modded. "Tonight- you need to come after me. No one's ever going to lynch me. I'm Pitch's most likely dream, and I don't lynch easily even if there is mass support. Just get rid of me already. You need to sooner or later after all." ~~~~~~~ Guess he got his wish on that last one... ![]() Clearly he had a problem with Shasta and Rikae (and Tum for the nickname thing, but that doesn't really count). The other thing that sticks out is the possibility of autumne and Alona being the BFFs. I might take a look at that later, but for now it should probably be bedtime.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. Last edited by Mirandir; 08-16-2009 at 09:57 PM. Reason: xed since my last post |
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#2 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are Up above the radar so high Like a baddie in the sky. Twinkle, twinkle little Sally How I wonder what you are. *goes to sleep*
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Puddle! Puddle! |
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#3 | |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
*snuggles you* Go to bed, sweetheart. And thank you.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#4 |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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BAH!
Who is Dun? Seriously these nicknames that make no sense need to go.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#5 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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I believe Dun is Durelin.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#6 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Dun is Inzildun, of course! And it makes perfect sense....inside my brain.
![]() EDIT: x'd
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#7 |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Why not Dure? At least that makes sense.
My new nickname with will Mile all the letters are there so we might as well.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#8 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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Quote:
So I was wrong about Sally not voting for Inzil earlier. Makes more sense as to why people suspect her as well.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#9 |
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Dead Serious
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Dun is Inziladun
![]() X-posted with all the other Dun-explainers.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
Last edited by Formendacil; 08-16-2009 at 10:15 PM. |
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#10 |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Thanks Dacil
Okay sorry to get on that tangent. Anyway I'm off to bed.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#11 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Thanks. Lol at least I know I'm not completely crazy.
Although I do understand Rikae's trouble. Didn't even think about that. Sorry, dear.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#12 |
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Dead Serious
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Okay, going to be bedtime soon (it's 10:00 pm), so this will be my last post for the night. No serious analysis now, just impressions.
For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up). In the meantime, my first impressions of Day 3 have three names: Morm, Rikae, and Sally, who seem to be in a little suspicion circle all of their own. It's Day 3, so we're about right on time for the former two to suspect me, so that's no huge surprise from this quarter. Beyond that, Rikae seems to be more excited than usual--a Wolf/Bear that saw something too close to the line yesterday? and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm. Sally doesn't seem so much suspicious as clueless, but that could make her a Cobbler, or a gut-instinct Bear. autume and Alona are both around, it seems. Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates? and autume feels like she's trying to hard to be agreeable. I'll probably back if there's much cross-posting, but the energy is flagging and the laundry is done.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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#13 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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I was thinking the same thing. I was going to mention that we need to look at morm as well toDay.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#14 |
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Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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My first idea was, that the mass-retractions were caused by Alona being a wolf and their comrades trying to save her. The scenario fits perfectly on the first look: 4 minutes before the deadline, tp chucks in the vote that puts Alona's name into the hat. Lommy and Sally are scared to retract right away, because it would make them look suspicious, and they wait til the last second for somebody else to do the job. Unfortunately, both admit that they want to save Alona, and that's simply not something a wolf does that openly when she desperately wants to save a fellow.
I do wonder, though, why Alona waited til the last minute to retract to save herself, so Alona's still a possible baddie for me, but probably not together with Sally and Lommy. Then again, reading morm's posts and her replies, Sally is still suspicious independently. I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow). Shasta, Nessa, and Nienna I need to look closer at, too, because I don't know what to think of them. Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen. |
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#15 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Actually, Mac, Nerwen looks really quite shiny to me. Then again, no one should look shiny, so her lack of suspicion is suspicious to me. Does that make sense?
(To clarify, Nerwen normally makes me uncomfortable but this game I can't come up with a single thing that makes me suspect her. Playing with Rudolph? Am I losing it? Or is she innocent? Right now, I'm going for the last one.)
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#16 | ||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
Quote:
EDIT:X'd with Alona.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#17 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
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Ah, what a mess.
I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them. ![]() And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.
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Joined together wrote our names upon the page Seven times alliance our loyalties we gave |
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#18 | |||
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Wight
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Quote:
Quote:
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" Last edited by alonariel; 08-16-2009 at 11:03 PM. Reason: X'd with Nerwen |
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#19 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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Quote:
As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for alona to save herself. After closer inspection sally did say she would break up a tie. So her switching her vote makes sense. I'm not sure why Lommy switched her vote. I never really saw her give a reason. Just mentioned that alona should be grateful. I've never played with her before so I don't know her very well. Rikae doesn't really seem to be a baddie to me. morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze morm. I'd do it this morning, but I'm not going to have enough time before I have to leave for work. Everyone else is flying under my radar as well. Which makes me think that some of the baddies are those that haven't spoken much. However it'd be highly unlikely that they ALL aren't speaking. Which means that I've got plenty of analyzing to do today. People I'd like to analyze today because they are flying below my radar: Nessa, Nerwen, and Mac.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#20 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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Quote:
So I decided to see where an experienced player stood on the issue. I also thought Inzil's vote suspicious. So I decided to do what I thought was best.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#21 | |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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As for my vote - Alon was pretty neutral on my books while Inzil was slightly (but only slightly) suspicious. I was mentally prepared to retract from Shasta to Inzil in order to save morm. I even wrote that post: "--Shasta, ++Inzil, Morm should be grateful." And that grateful comment came because morm and I have old rivalries so it would be quite extraordinary for me to save him. Then, the situation changed quickly and I just replaced morm's name with Alona's without thinking much and posted it. That's it for those who have asked.
Then, the kills. I believe phantom was killed because he seemed like a seer dream and possibly also because he is a dangerous opponent (mayhaps he was getting too close to the truth with Shasta and/or Rikae and they decided to eliminate him with the seer-dream cover?) Brinn, then. I don't know why people find it so surprising. You can't expect a pattern based on one single kill. I think Brinn was possibly picked for suspected wolvishness or giftedness, and probably at least for being improbable wolf kill. (Hmm, don't ask why she'd be an improbable wolf kill. Probably because she had come under more suspicion than many others.) I don't like the way Form speculates about the bear kills. It looks like he's been thinking of bear tactics far too much for his own good, which could point at him being the bear himself, or possibly being a wolf. I get weird vibes of Autume. She seems somehow very reserved and defensive and agreeing with people. But I don't know if it's just her style, I've never played with her before. Morm - to me, Rikae is a big questionmark. I suspect her to some extent, but then again she has this big innocence show going on and claims she wouldn't do this and that as a wolf and accuses people for thinking that she's either stupid or evil and calculating if they suspect her of something like that, so I'm not sure. Sally seems to be very much like her usual self, she tends to be jumpier (mmh she actually is a bit jumpy now but not as jumpy as she tends to be a wolf) and more careful when being a wolf. So I'm not sure about her either but she's leaning innocent. Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing. Greenie has complained to me before for suspecting her on grounds like that, but really, the overt use of smileys - especially sad smiley, normal smiley and eek smiley - or using them in wrong places gives a dishonest or trying-to-please impression, and that's what Alona is doing now. Quote:
![]() I'm going to work now, but I'll be back in some five hours. See you all! edit: xed with Autume
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#22 | |
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Wight
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Quote:
Okay, I'm off to school. I'll be back around 1pm pst to post. PS: I go crazy with smileys on AIM, too.
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"Puddle! Puddle! Oh, snow! Future puddle!" |
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#23 | |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Quote:
. This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.Oh, but I better not suspect you too much otherwise Sally-wolf may find it 'suspicious' that somebody else has strong suspicions and the two of you would suspect me further for the simple reason of suspecting you.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#24 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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Quote:
Edit Xed with alona
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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#25 | |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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Quote:
Yet you seem jumpy so I am glad to know of it. My vote is going to Autume or Sally.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#26 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The other side of the fish bowl
Posts: 267
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This goes for me too. I'll see what I can do about posting at work, but I make no promises. Oh and it'll be closer to 4 hours before the deadline for me. But I will be here. Now it's off to bed seeing as it's 11:30 here.
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The only thing to expect is the unexpected. |
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