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Old 08-16-2009, 09:56 PM   #1
Mirandir
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phantom-analysis

#542
Upset about Pitch's death, not pleased with anybody.

#546
Responds to Rikae, saying didn't think Pitch was gifted, why he didn't vote Hakon, and to point out that his Rikae-vote did have backing.

#549
Agrees with Mira's analysis that he was Pitch's first dream.

#552
Makes sarcastic remarks about why people shouldn't vote him

#556
Ponders forcing tie every day just to be a jerk
Alon - "came under very slight threat halfway through, and so if she's guilty the Pitch voters don't look so good"
Rikae - "threatened right at the deadline, so if she is guilty Tum rushing in and retracting her Hakon vote in favor of padding Pitch's lead (effectively savingRik's skin) looks extremely suspicious."
If both are innocent we wouldn't have anything at all

#558
Responds to Nerwen's question about feelings on Mira, determines doesn't know what to think

#626
Defends Mira and her insanely idiotic slip, thinks is cobbler if anything
Wants to know why Shasta voted Pitch, says doesn't make sense

#644
Wants to know why morm is attracting votes
Doesn't like the nickname confusion. Suggests lynching autumne to get rid of it.
Sarcasm directed towards Rikae about a comment she made
rhinoceros
pudding

#667
Doesn't want to vote morm or Brinn, tempted to vote Rikae again

#672
"What's that you say, Shasta? You'd like to volunteer? Well, I'd love to help you out, but Sally said it first. She has to refuse before you can offer yourself. Sorry."
Still picking a fight with Shasta, presumably over his vote for Pitch yesterDay

#678
Says can't spot the bear and the people who thought Hakon spotted it are wrong

#681
Introduces possibility that Alona and autumne are BFFs
Considering voting for Rikae or Shasta or Tum because of nickname thing

#688
Responds to Mac's question about why he didn't mention Inzil

#691
"Well, now that an admittedly drunk Formendacil has voted Inzil, I certainly can't jump onto that train.

See Mac. I just knew it wasn't for me. This is a sign. It confirms it."

#712
"Shasta, Rikae, or Tum.... which one.... which one...."

#714
Wonders why no one has elaborated on why Tum and Alona might be BFFs
Ponders voting for whoever Brinn votes for just because she was nice to him

#730
About the statement Rikae had made about being ready to trust him but then he said something that made her change her mind:
"Well crap, Rikae. You say something like that so close to the deadline... And now I have to try a mad-speed goose chase to find out what the heck you're talking about. *sighs*

Here goes..."

#749
Votes Alona for dropping out of the game he modded.

"Tonight- you need to come after me. No one's ever going to lynch me. I'm Pitch's most likely dream, and I don't lynch easily even if there is mass support. Just get rid of me already. You need to sooner or later after all."

~~~~~~~

Guess he got his wish on that last one...

Clearly he had a problem with Shasta and Rikae (and Tum for the nickname thing, but that doesn't really count). The other thing that sticks out is the possibility of autumne and Alona being the BFFs. I might take a look at that later, but for now it should probably be bedtime.
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Last edited by Mirandir; 08-16-2009 at 09:57 PM. Reason: xed since my last post
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:03 PM   #2
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Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are
Up above the radar so high
Like a baddie in the sky.

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are.

*goes to sleep*
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:05 PM   #3
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Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are
Up above the radar so high
Like a baddie in the sky.

Twinkle, twinkle little Sally
How I wonder what you are.

*goes to sleep*
HAHA!

*snuggles you*

Go to bed, sweetheart. And thank you.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:07 PM   #4
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BAH!

Who is Dun?

Seriously these nicknames that make no sense need to go.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:09 PM   #5
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BAH!

Who is Dun?

Seriously these nicknames that make no sense need to go.
I believe Dun is Durelin.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:10 PM   #6
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Dun is Inzildun, of course! And it makes perfect sense....inside my brain.


EDIT: x'd
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:11 PM   #7
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I believe Dun is Durelin.
Why not Dure? At least that makes sense.

My new nickname with will Mile all the letters are there so we might as well.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:16 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by mormegil View Post
Why not Dure? At least that makes sense.

My new nickname with will Mile all the letters are there so we might as well.
Sorry morm looks like I got that one wrong too! So I was wrong about Sally not voting for Inzil earlier. Makes more sense as to why people suspect her as well.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:11 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by autume98 View Post
I believe Dun is Durelin.
Dun is Inziladun

X-posted with all the other Dun-explainers.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:14 PM   #10
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Dun is Inziladun
Thanks Dacil

Okay sorry to get on that tangent. Anyway I'm off to bed.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:15 PM   #11
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Dun is Inziladun
Thanks. Lol at least I know I'm not completely crazy.

Although I do understand Rikae's trouble. Didn't even think about that. Sorry, dear.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:10 PM   #12
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Okay, going to be bedtime soon (it's 10:00 pm), so this will be my last post for the night. No serious analysis now, just impressions.

For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).

In the meantime, my first impressions of Day 3 have three names: Morm, Rikae, and Sally, who seem to be in a little suspicion circle all of their own. It's Day 3, so we're about right on time for the former two to suspect me, so that's no huge surprise from this quarter. Beyond that, Rikae seems to be more excited than usual--a Wolf/Bear that saw something too close to the line yesterday? and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm. Sally doesn't seem so much suspicious as clueless, but that could make her a Cobbler, or a gut-instinct Bear.

autume and Alona are both around, it seems. Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates? and autume feels like she's trying to hard to be agreeable.

I'll probably back if there's much cross-posting, but the energy is flagging and the laundry is done.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:19 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
and Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm.
I was thinking the same thing. I was going to mention that we need to look at morm as well toDay.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:41 PM   #14
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My first idea was, that the mass-retractions were caused by Alona being a wolf and their comrades trying to save her. The scenario fits perfectly on the first look: 4 minutes before the deadline, tp chucks in the vote that puts Alona's name into the hat. Lommy and Sally are scared to retract right away, because it would make them look suspicious, and they wait til the last second for somebody else to do the job. Unfortunately, both admit that they want to save Alona, and that's simply not something a wolf does that openly when she desperately wants to save a fellow.

I do wonder, though, why Alona waited til the last minute to retract to save herself, so Alona's still a possible baddie for me, but probably not together with Sally and Lommy. Then again, reading morm's posts and her replies, Sally is still suspicious independently.

I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow). Shasta, Nessa, and Nienna I need to look closer at, too, because I don't know what to think of them.


Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:47 PM   #15
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Actually, Mac, Nerwen looks really quite shiny to me. Then again, no one should look shiny, so her lack of suspicion is suspicious to me. Does that make sense?

(To clarify, Nerwen normally makes me uncomfortable but this game I can't come up with a single thing that makes me suspect her. Playing with Rudolph? Am I losing it? Or is she innocent? Right now, I'm going for the last one.)
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Old 08-16-2009, 11:02 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by autume98 View Post
I believe Dun is Durelin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
It was decided Dun...but mostly for whatever reason I type out Inziladun, or Inzil, or Dun, or some variant. [/I]
Well, as long as you knew who she was voting for... I tend to call Inziladun Zil, or Inzil.

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Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.
You're wrong, but I'm flattered.

EDIT:X'd with Alona.
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Old 08-17-2009, 05:38 AM   #17
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Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.
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Old 08-16-2009, 11:02 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
My first idea was, that the mass-retractions were caused by Alona being a wolf and their comrades trying to save her. The scenario fits perfectly on the first look: 4 minutes before the deadline, tp chucks in the vote that puts Alona's name into the hat. Lommy and Sally are scared to retract right away, because it would make them look suspicious, and they wait til the last second for somebody else to do the job. Unfortunately, both admit that they want to save Alona, and that's simply not something a wolf does that openly when she desperately wants to save a fellow.
I waited until the last minute because there were still several people that had to vote - and in the end my nerves got the better of me. A newbie thing, I'm afraid. I keep on having to tell myself to calm down, it's just a game. But really, I don't see Sally as being suspicious - or Lommy, for that matter. Maybe that's because I haven't played with them enough, or that Sally's not acting like she did at all last game when she was a wolf. And that's not because they voted to save me. My one retraction was enough to save me, and we all posted at the same time.


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I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow). Shasta, Nessa, and Nienna I need to look closer at, too, because I don't know what to think of them.
I'm more wary of autume. Form I can't get a read on, but that's probably because I haven't played with him enough to know how to read him. autume seems to agree with everyone, almost as if it's a conscious effort not to make waves and draw attention to herself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Btw, we are dealing with a smart bear, who probably counted with the wolves doing the dirty work of possibly sacrificing a kill on the widely-suspected innocent phantom and went for Brinn instead. I, too, expected a more extravagant kill from the bear, so unless he had some specific reason to try Brinn, he's somebody unwilling to fulfil expectations and instead trying to confuse us more about his way of thinking/killing. Gut feeling of the Day: Nerwen.
We definitely are. I'm really baffled by the bear. It doesn't help that I've never played in a game with a bear, but still. Your gut feeling is interesting - Nerwen's been so under my radar, I fear she's in another universe altogether at the moment.
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Last edited by alonariel; 08-16-2009 at 11:03 PM. Reason: X'd with Nerwen
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Old 08-17-2009, 06:33 AM   #19
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I'm more wary of autume. Form I can't get a read on, but that's probably because I haven't played with him enough to know how to read him. autume seems to agree with everyone, almost as if it's a conscious effort not to make waves and draw attention to herself.
I don't mean to be agreeing with everybody. It's just that so far I haven't really had anything to disagree with. I've decided to give you my thoughts below.

As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for alona to save herself. After closer inspection sally did say she would break up a tie. So her switching her vote makes sense.

I'm not sure why Lommy switched her vote. I never really saw her give a reason. Just mentioned that alona should be grateful. I've never played with her before so I don't know her very well.

Rikae doesn't really seem to be a baddie to me.

morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze morm. I'd do it this morning, but I'm not going to have enough time before I have to leave for work.

Everyone else is flying under my radar as well. Which makes me think that some of the baddies are those that haven't spoken much. However it'd be highly unlikely that they ALL aren't speaking. Which means that I've got plenty of analyzing to do today.

People I'd like to analyze today because they are flying below my radar: Nessa, Nerwen, and Mac.
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Old 08-17-2009, 06:13 AM   #20
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I am also suspicious right now of Autume and Form, both simply for following my vote (Autume even asked me to make her follow).
Well after sealing the Seer's fate I didn't want to make another newbie mistake like that again. So I decided to see where an experienced player stood on the issue.

I also thought Inzil's vote suspicious. So I decided to do what I thought was best.
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:00 AM   #21
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As for my vote - Alon was pretty neutral on my books while Inzil was slightly (but only slightly) suspicious. I was mentally prepared to retract from Shasta to Inzil in order to save morm. I even wrote that post: "--Shasta, ++Inzil, Morm should be grateful." And that grateful comment came because morm and I have old rivalries so it would be quite extraordinary for me to save him. Then, the situation changed quickly and I just replaced morm's name with Alona's without thinking much and posted it. That's it for those who have asked.

Then, the kills. I believe phantom was killed because he seemed like a seer dream and possibly also because he is a dangerous opponent (mayhaps he was getting too close to the truth with Shasta and/or Rikae and they decided to eliminate him with the seer-dream cover?) Brinn, then. I don't know why people find it so surprising. You can't expect a pattern based on one single kill. I think Brinn was possibly picked for suspected wolvishness or giftedness, and probably at least for being improbable wolf kill. (Hmm, don't ask why she'd be an improbable wolf kill. Probably because she had come under more suspicion than many others.)

I don't like the way Form speculates about the bear kills. It looks like he's been thinking of bear tactics far too much for his own good, which could point at him being the bear himself, or possibly being a wolf.

I get weird vibes of Autume. She seems somehow very reserved and defensive and agreeing with people. But I don't know if it's just her style, I've never played with her before.

Morm - to me, Rikae is a big questionmark. I suspect her to some extent, but then again she has this big innocence show going on and claims she wouldn't do this and that as a wolf and accuses people for thinking that she's either stupid or evil and calculating if they suspect her of something like that, so I'm not sure. Sally seems to be very much like her usual self, she tends to be jumpier (mmh she actually is a bit jumpy now but not as jumpy as she tends to be a wolf) and more careful when being a wolf. So I'm not sure about her either but she's leaning innocent.

Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing. Greenie has complained to me before for suspecting her on grounds like that, but really, the overt use of smileys - especially sad smiley, normal smiley and eek smiley - or using them in wrong places gives a dishonest or trying-to-please impression, and that's what Alona is doing now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autume
Thanks for clearing that up. Sorry Lommy!
No problem.

I'm going to work now, but I'll be back in some five hours. See you all!


edit: xed with Autume
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Old 08-17-2009, 08:01 AM   #22
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Quote:
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Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing. Greenie has complained to me before for suspecting her on grounds like that, but really, the overt use of smileys - especially sad smiley, normal smiley and eek smiley - or using them in wrong places gives a dishonest or trying-to-please impression, and that's what Alona is doing now.
Here we go again. Sorry if it makes me seem over eager or eager to please. I really think it's just turning out to be my style of play...but if it bothers you that much (like Nerwen's backwards writing or something), then I'll lay off the smlieys.

Okay, I'm off to school. I'll be back around 1pm pst to post.

PS: I go crazy with smileys on AIM, too.
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Old 08-17-2009, 07:08 AM   #23
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Well after sealing the Seer's fate I didn't want to make another newbie mistake like that again. So I decided to see where an experienced player stood on the issue.

I also thought Inzil's vote suspicious. So I decided to do what I thought was best.
Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.

Oh, but I better not suspect you too much otherwise Sally-wolf may find it 'suspicious' that somebody else has strong suspicions and the two of you would suspect me further for the simple reason of suspecting you.
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Old 08-17-2009, 08:14 AM   #24
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Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.
I was just telling you why I did what I did. Not really sure what I did to make me your prime suspect.

Edit Xed with alona
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Old 08-17-2009, 10:20 AM   #25
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Wow! This increases your credibility in my book, this and this post alone assuaged all my misgivings of you . This post makes you fly up to the near top of my list.
Near top does not mean prime.

Yet you seem jumpy so I am glad to know of it. My vote is going to Autume or Sally.
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Old 08-16-2009, 10:35 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Formendacil View Post
For the record, so that no one pulls an Inziladun-to-Morm play on me, yes, I will be back. I work in the morning, and I'm usually home 5 hours before the deadline, so you can expect me some time after that (my computer can be cranky until it's warmed up).
This goes for me too. I'll see what I can do about posting at work, but I make no promises. Oh and it'll be closer to 4 hours before the deadline for me. But I will be here. Now it's off to bed seeing as it's 11:30 here.
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