TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Thinlómien]

Morm, you just made me postpone my bed-time and go to read through Form's posts to see whether what you say makes sense and whether my fix idée is grounded or not.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Form

We have one retraction in this game, right? *seems to remember that we have a potential No Vote and can retract that as our single retraction, so uses that as his self-evidence*
++ Mirandir
...because she's first on my grumpy list and I can change it later when I'm more awake. For now, it's 1:10 am in my timezone, I have a cough, and I'm grouchy. Sorry, Mira darling. But not very sorry.

He uses quite a lot of energy to say it's just a retractable grumpy vote.

Originally Posted by Form

I realise, for those older players who remember (or the younger ones who may have read back), that this may seem a trifle anti-Formendacil in style, since it makes it sound like I think we have a good chance of catching a baddie on Day 1. We don't--let me make that clear--or, rather, we have exactly as much a chance as usual. I continue to aver, as I always have, that we're grossly unlikely to reason our way to finding a Wolf (or Bear, for that matter) on Day 1, but the stats show that Fenris lynches are not impossible, so we may as well at least try for one of those. Also, to emphasize the often forgotten second half of my anti-Day 1 thesis: "Day 1s are useless to analyse on Day 1." My point being that we'll be wanting a voting record tomorrow to analyze, and voting for Fea is an abdication of that, every bit as much as No Voting, but with the psychological pretension that it's an actual vote.

Explaining himself too much again. Why would it occur to explain a thing most people would not even think about it unless it is something sinister? If a normal Form prefers to be careful and hates Day1 lynches, what would drive him to act differently, if not the role of a bear? (A bear needs to maximise the destruction because it takes him ages to get to the situation where he wins.)

I noticed this though:

Originally Posted by Form

My second thought regards Hakon. I more or less agree (bearing in mind that I skim read a page or two of this thread...) with everything Rikae said in argument against his plots and schemes, but he is the spitting image of the "All-Too-Easy Day 1 Scapegoat" vote... who might be a newbie in some games, or just too noisy... or too quiet... or too easy... or whatever... in others. He's rubbed me enough the wrong way with his suggestions that I can't honestly say he seems a village asset, but that has all the hallmarks of a Village Ordo.

I'm not sure if he would have killed him if this is what he thought.

Originally Posted by Form

Innocent:
Formendacil

Sorry Alona and Boro, I will be the smiley dictator yet for a while - but doesn't that smiley seem somewhat disturbing? I think it looks sort of... nervous to add it there.

Originally Posted by Form

Brinn baffles me too--her death, that is. After the Hakon death, I was expecting a somewhat wilder kill from the Bear--one of the village loudmouths or noisemakers. Well, "expecting" is a strong word, but I definitely would have inclined that way. As it is, however, Brinn has been quite quiet, and thus less readable. Her death, however, takes the Bear in completely the opposite direction of Hakon's--unless they were both completely unconnected to the Bear as far as posts went. I was more expecting, though, to wake up and find someone like Alona gone--someone making more noise, and generally more suspicious.

And this still rubs me the wrong way - he is too analytical about the bear's picking patterns and tactics and generally just thinking too much of the bear not to be the bear himself.

That's it. Seems like my fix idée has some base (but it could have more). It still gets my vote:

++Formendacil

Better get rid of the bear early and thus lower the amount of kills during the Nights.


edit: xed with everybody except Boro's first post after mine

[Nessa Telrunya]

Mmmm, neither alona or Form are looking very good right now. I just can't figure out who looks more suspicious...


Who to vote for?

[Rikae]

The Form case looks rather weak. He's one to reminisce about the old days quite a lot in any event - and the smiley? I like it. It's funny.

Lommy (not just for the Form stuff) and Nienna are just somehow creepy. I have to give this more thought... but they both give a going-with-the-flow, looking-for-a-wagon-to-join-rather-than-a-wolf sort of feel. More later, I have to go make ice cream sundaes.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

And this still rubs me the wrong way - he is too analytical about the bear's picking patterns and tactics and generally just thinking too much of the bear not to be the bear himself.

The bear can think about being the bear all he/she likes, but it's a different matter entirely to type up his/her thoughts and post them. In other words, I don't think that argument has much to it.

I was under the impression Form always explains himself, among other things, a lot. Explaining is a favorite past-time of many people I know, and I am at least under the impression that he is one of them.

I do tend to trust Form rather than distrust, and I cannot say I can read him, but I have absolutely no idea where people are getting some huge bear vibe, maybe particularly because I don't know what a bear vibe is. All anyone seems to have to offer is that a bear likes to talk about his/herself, which I don't buy.

Anyway...sudden attention so completely away from Sally (and alona) is not *necessarily* bad, but is definitely weird.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I went through all of Sally's posts and she doesn't seem like the wolf/baddie-Sally that I have seen and called out in previous games.

So what does a wolf/baddie-Sally look like?

Originally Posted by alona

Durelin - what I posted earlier still stands - why did she vote based only on the three way tie?

You're just hung up on it cause I picked you. I did not want to leave the lynch up to chance, and I wanted my vote to count for something. I waited as long as I felt it was safe to vote, waiting to see if someone else would break the tie, and making up my mind whether I needed to break the tie or could just vote for Mira (though by the end I had decided that tie or not, I was going to vote you rather than throw away my vote). But no one chose to break it until the last minute. Inziladun and morm seemed innocent to me, you did not. And I am still perfectly happy with my vote.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Who to vote for?

How about whom you think to be suspicious, and not just someone who looks to be on the lynching block other than Sally?

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Anyway...sudden attention so completely away from Sally (and alona) is not *necessarily* bad, but is definitely weird.

This Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and Sally. It's confusing and is inadvertently adding to my suspicion of Sally. I think I'm gonna go back and do another read-through of Day 2...

Originally Posted by Durelin

So what does a wolf/baddie-Sally look like?

When I played with her last game, she was very wolfish. Very obvious to the point where I didn't think she could be a wolf because it was so obvious. Does that make sense?

Originally Posted by Durelin

You're just hung up on it cause I picked you. I did not want to leave the lynch up to chance, and I wanted my vote to count for something. I waited as long as I felt it was safe to vote, waiting to see if someone else would break the tie, and making up my mind whether I needed to break the tie or could just vote for Mira (though by the end I had decided that tie or not, I was going to vote you rather than throw away my vote). But no one chose to break it until the last minute. Inziladun and morm seemed innocent to me, you did not. And I am still perfectly happy with my vote.

That's probably true! It's just the wording that caught me off guard, but I understand your reasoning.

[Nienna]

Rikae can you clarify creepy for me... I'd like to respond but yet find I don't know how to respond as I don't know what creepy means...

A baddie-Sally doesn't tend to overly state that she is innocent. She tends to imply her innocence without saying it out-right. I may be wrong with this but it is what I have noticed. So I trust her for the moment.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Rikae can you clarify creepy for me... I'd like to respond but yet find I don't know how to respond as I don't know what creepy means...

A baddie-Sally doesn't tend to overly state that she is innocent. She tends to imply her innocence without saying it out-right. I may be wrong with this but it is what I have noticed. So I trust her for the moment.

I'm going to have to look at your posts to see what exactly gave me that impression, but generally staying in the background, going with the flow, giving the impression of hiding in the shadows.

[autume98]

Thanks for the Shasta analysis sally. Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on, but I don't see anything to lynch him today. Like you said there's not a lot to go on.

As for Form, I really don't see anything that says to lynch him today either.

Now I'm off to do my morm analysis since people were suspecting him yesterday, and since he's now in my radar.

Back in a bit!

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Weren't you only with me in the last game? 'Cause last game I think Boro and I planned that whole flirt thing just to have fun. And I was under somewhat special instructions from Lari to be amusing. Just saying, so you don't get the wrong impression based on last game. (Although I do like a fair bit of crazy. Heh.)

Yeah, last game was the first time I'd ever played with you. And noted for future games. I think everybody likes a little bit of crazy sometimes, haha.

~~~

As I posted on the Admin Thread, I'm going to be leaving soon for class, which doesn't end until after the DL, so vote post now, I guess. Since I don't have quite a clear read on whom I should vote for (I think Form's case came out of nowhere, and my suspicion for morm from yesterDay has gone down), here we go:

++No vote

I'm nervous to see what I'm going to come back to, but hopefully we'll nab a baddie. I don't want to risk voting for another ordo or a possible gifted after how many we lynched already, so there's my not-vote.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by alona

++No vote

Boooooo!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by alonariel

When I played with her last game, she was very wolfish. Very obvious to the point where I didn't think she could be a wolf because it was so obvious. Does that make sense?

Weren't you only with me in the last game? 'Cause last game I think Boro and I planned that whole flirt thing just to have fun. And I was under somewhat special instructions from Lari to be amusing. Just saying, so you don't get the wrong impression based on last game. (Although I do like a fair bit of crazy. Heh.)



EDIT: either I x'd with Nienna or just didn't read her post. Anyway....*gives her a cookie*

[Nessa Telrunya]

So, I just realized that I've still not followed up on my promises of a list. How typical of me.

Alona-I just get this... Feeling from her. Like sort of a wolfish feel.

Tum-Has played in an honest sort of manner, not giving any reason to suspect her, unless you count her tie-breaker on Day 1.

Durelin-I don't know very well, so I can't give a clear impression. He seems to have a talent of saying a lot of in-depth stuff, yet being completely anonymous almost.

Form-Could be a wolf, I suppose. But then again, can't everyone else?

Lommy-Is giving out clear opinions, not ringing the bells. Don't think she's a baddie.

Mac-Is there yet not. Kind of hard to analyze.

Mira-Is completely floating over my head. I have no idea what to think of her.

Morm-I am very impressed with. Puts himself out there, but kind of gray, rather than black or white, in terms of role.

Nerwen-Is giving me no idea as to what she is. Not fair, really.

Nessa-You tell me.

Nienna-Is ringing those tinkly little bells, but there's no reason for me to go after her.

Rikae-Is maybe a bit suspicious, but I don't think she's a wolf.

Sally-I am pretty sure of her innocence at this point. I saw sally!wolf in action last game, and she's completely different this time around.

Shasta-Well, if anything, I know he's not the cobbler, or he'd be catching wolves off the hook.


Well, I kind of suppose I don't know anything about anyone. I think I'm one of the only ones to fail at list making.

[satansaloser2005]

*cough* Durelin's a girl. *cough*

[Macalaure]

Lommy's case against Form does indeed look like an attempt at scapegoating, especially since after morm's vote for him it was obvious that there's a market for Form-votes. This would mean that both Sally and Lommy are wolves, since Sally is more in the spotlight than Alona, so it would be more efficient to throw more suspicion at Sally than at Form. It's also possible that she's the cobbler and is trying to save both because she shares the mainstream belief that the two are suspicious.

I think I'll put Durelin in my small group of people I trust - she's sensible.

[satansaloser2005]

I agree. I think Form might be suspicious, but not enough to kill him toDay. It's sketchy at best how quickly he became a focus of discussion.

And Mac, just remember that the sensible people aren't always the innocent ones.

[Formendacil]

To respond to Lommy's sundry accusations...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

He uses quite a lot of energy to say it's just a retractable grumpy vote.



Explaining himself too much again. Why would it occur to explain a thing most people would not even think about it unless it is something sinister? If a normal Form prefers to be careful and hates Day1 lynches, what would drive him to act differently, if not the role of a bear? (A bear needs to maximise the destruction because it takes him ages to get to the situation where he wins.)

Really?

Do you not read my LJ, Lommy? You're suspecting me on the basis of talking a lot and too much navel-gazing ramifications? I'm one of those people--believe it or not--who thinks things through too much and has an easier time writing five paragraphs on a subject than limiting myself to a single sentence, though I think I manage not to ramble entirely too much... but that's not for me to decide. All the same, I'm shocked you'd have me lynched on what is essentially my online hallmark.

Regarding your parenthetical comment about a bear wanting to maximize the destruction--I agree with that, as far as it goes, but you haven't thought things through far enough. I am not, in fact, in the post you quote, acting differently from my normal Day 1 self. I am, in fact, taking great pains to make it clear that what I am doing is consistent with my normal, much expressed opinion. Perhaps it's the philosophy student in me, perhaps it's the OCD, but I try quite hard to be consistent in the views I hold. If, therefore, my Day 1 action is suspicious, you're going to have to prove it on the grounds other than my own statement that I was doing something different--because I was not doing something at all inconsistent with my normal practice.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Sorry Alona and Boro, I will be the smiley dictator yet for a while - but doesn't that smiley seem somewhat disturbing? I think it looks sort of... nervous to add it there.

I'm... I'm not even going to dignify what with a written responce. But you can put these in your pipe and smoke them:

Originally Posted by Lommy

And this still rubs me the wrong way - he is too analytical about the bear's picking patterns and tactics and generally just thinking too much of the bear not to be the bear himself.

*blinks*

I'm too analytical?

We're playing Werewolf, of all things, and you think I'm being too analytical? I'm not saying I couldn't be the bear speculating out loud about my own strategies as the bear to misdirect people... but, at the same time, in a game that basically thrives on analysis and reading-into... you're going to convict me on that? Haven't you ever played with Nogrod? (*is being rhetorical... I know the answer)

Originally Posted by Lommy

Better get rid of the bear early and thus lower the amount of kills during the Nights.

Now that, Miss Lommy is a fair point. Unfortunately, it's the first one in this post. I'm not the bear, but apparently no one else is showing obvious Bear-signs. Though, really, why should the Bear be that obvious? S/he doesn't have inside knowledge of anyone's role but his/her own--like the Ordos. S/he doesn't dream about or talk to anyone--like the Ordos. And if a Bear has half a set of smarts, s/he should have the sense to eat people that won't leave a trail back to him/her. Really, anyone who appears suspicious during the Day is more likely to be a Wolf, because they're covering for other people that cripples how they can play. A Bear, on the other hand, has goals like a Wolf, but can play more like an Ordo.

All that being said, I still think we can catch the Bear... but I'm not sure we'll be able to distinguish him/her from a wolf before the narration... and you know how certain we can be in any case before that.