TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Macalaure]

*opens a can of whoop-****

Why did you people lynch morm? Foolish! Why on earth did you do that? There was not one sensible reason to do so, not one. If anyone even considers making a case against someone who didn't vote morm yesterDay, then...
Since 5 people voted for morm, obviously at least one of them must be innocent. I don't mean to be arrogant, but I hope that/those person/s spent some time reflecting on what exactly constitutes suspicious behaviour to him/her/them. YesterDay's performance just didn't cut it.

Durelin is dead, but her hunter-pick isn't. She voted for Form, but she didn't actually seem to suspect him that much (but was a bit coerced into voting for him, which was my fault, I fear ), so I doubt he was her pick. Likely she picked Nienna, maybe Lommy.

Nessa - probably innocent, but needs to be checked carefully.
Nerwen - cobbler, period.
Lommy - bear-hunch, but I will ignore that hunch toDay (also, would she be afraid to attack Durelin? Hmm..).
Mira - possible non-morm-voter-wolf (plus bear-hunch), but will ignore that for toDay.
Form - wolf, but I'm willing to listen to his or other's arguments against it.
Autume - probably innocent.
Nienna - her life suggests innocence, but we should not take that for granted.
Sally - should be kept on a very, very short leash.

Sally, I'd like to see a good case against Nessa, or I'll regard your wild suggestion to lynch her as an attempt of scapegoating.

[Thinlómien]

Our numbers are growing small with our hunter gone with no kill and two wolves, the bear and the cobbler still being around. Actually, almost half of us are evil! (4/9) Well, at least that should make toDay's lynch easier. Hopefully.

autume- could be anything (although most probably an ordo, then a wolf)
Formendacil- lynch-worthy: I still think he has good chances of being either the bear or a wolf
Macalaure- has been innocent-looking this far, but one starts to wonder why is he still alive because no one suspects him (okay, if he has been supersuper innocent-looking then he might have been spared because the baddies wouldn't want to risk making the same kill) and anyway, he could be the bear
Mira- a questionmark, I always suspect her to some degree and she doesn't seem too innocent right now either
Nerwen- 50% cobbler, 25% wolf, 25% ordo
Nessa- seems rather innocent but I'm not ready to give her a free pass now
Nienna- also quite innocent, I don't understand where the suspicion against hem originally come from
sally- one of those wolf/cobbler/ordo people, very confusing in managing to look very innocent at times and very guilty at other time - bears watching and possibly lynching

I'm going to do my morning stuff *yawns* and then have a look at yesterDay, both at the votes and at whom Durelin suspected. Meanwhile the players who are around (no one?) can think about why she and Rikae got killed.

[Thinlómien]

Durelin

Sally...cobbler?
Nienna and Lommy wolves?
Nerwen and Mira also bother me a lot.
But I'm ready to vote Morm for his gifted-reveal plan.

Hah. I completely forgot about autum...

Cobbler
Sally? Nerwen?
Wolf
Nienna, Mira, Lommy, Nessa, Sally, autum....
Bear
morm...Lommy...

Lommy's vote on Day 2 is the most...confusing. If she is a wolf, would she have been that obvious and that concerned with saving her companion? Everyone's saying she seems like a bear, but what reason would she have for saving alona (and morm as she said she wanted to)? Unless she really wanted Inziladun dead for some reason, and instead voted him under the pretenses of wanting to save people.

Sally in general is confusing.

She's another who has a cobbler-ish feel to her in that she rather un-commited and unwilling to really suspect someone (as if she's afraid to), but is just not having enough effect on the game if you know what I mean. I feel that if you're a cobbler, you shouldn't be a wallflower.

Interesting point - Mira votes morm after pseudo-defending him by saying that Form talked more about the bear than morm did.

autume-Sally is a definite connection...I have agreed with a lot of people on thinking Sally seems cobblerish, but what doesn't make sense to me is autume being and wolf and Sally being a cobbler. Why would autume-wolf bother to defend Sally-cobbler as much as she did, rather than go after Sally to distract from alona?

If autume and Sally are indeed evil, it makes the most sense if they are both wolves.

I don't think Sally is a wolf with Nienna. She could be a wolf with Nessa.

I definitely feel there is something wrong with Lommy and have felt so from the time she first started posting.

Now the question to me is - go for a simply evil-looking Lommy...wolf or bear, I am not at all sure...OR go with evil-looking with more wolf-y connections. Of course, she did save alona!

While I am uneasy about morm (in a bearish sense), I think it is compeltely bizarre that Nessa, Nerwen, and Form have completely passed over the fact that we lynched a wolf yesterDay! To a certain extent they all seem to be on a different planet from the rest of the game. I get the same sense from Lommy...at least she did an alona-related analysis, though one of her probable-mates was morm...

Anyway, since I know it's a concern... My bear-suspicion of morm began only toDay, I will tell you that. And I do not feel at all confident enough to vote for him.

Well, if Form's a wolf I'm going to be more convinced Lommy's the bear...

Form seems too hung up on morm but he was the second vote for alona yesterDay, hoping to avoid lynching himself, when he just as easily could have voted for morm, which would have brought him up to 3 already.

Wolf who voted his fellow or bear...I just have no sense of Form, gut-feeling wise or vibes or whatever.

I have no sense of Form except his vote for morm toDay looking bad.

If he's the bear I don't see why he would be so hung up on morm. Sure he may not want to be the only baddie left at this point, but there are two wolves left, and it's not like we have a known one.

I would rather lynch Nienna, Nerwen, Nessa, or Lommy. Or Sally.

I would vote now but I'd love to save that retraction in case things go wrong, instead of if I pick the person no one else is going to go for toDay...

I'd really like to find out what Lommy is...but...

++Nienna
Lommy next? Maybe...

I don't really feel like lynching Form to save morm...

--Nienna
++Formendacil
?

I think Durelin intentionally kept her suspicion list long so that it'd be difficult for the baddies to figure who she was hunting. Those probably most scared of a Durelin-hunter as baddies would be me and Nienna, followed by Sally. So the three of us (possibly alongisde with Nerwen and Nessa) are unlikely bears.

Who did Durelin really hunt, then? If we could figure that out, we'd have one known innocent. I'm inclined to say Nessa or Sally, because I doubt she'd scare her hunting target aka main suspect away by suspecting them loudly. She could suspect her main suspect though, because that could help get them lynched. But of course, Durelin made her pick only after the end of the Day, so it is impossible to say what she was thinking. Based on this rather fragile logic, I'm now slightly less suspicious of Sally and Nessa, which means I won't worry about Nessa now and Sally might not be among my favourites for voting unlike before. She just screams evil at times, though.

~*~

YesterDay

I don't get why half of the village seems to suspect me of bear-ery. I can assure you I have no teddyish tendencies...

Autume seems like a ruthless bandwagoner. I think I may have to re-evaluate my semi-trust in her innocence.

Originally Posted by Mira

I wanted to keep Alona alive a while longer in order to look at the prospect that she and you were BFFs like phantom suggested you might be. Nothing more vicious than that.

Looks like the perfect excuse.

Mira's vote for autume seems rather throwaway. It could be a sign of innocence (voting whomever is most suspicious) or wolvery (escaping the bandwagon attention and avoiding being blamed of getting an innocent killed or actually contributing to the death of a fellow) or even cobblery (not sure about the wolvery of the village main suspects so sticking to someone else). So I can't conclude much, but this vote makes me wary.

Why oh why did you guys choose Nienna over Form? A Form-wagon might have succeeded and morm could have been spared. Not that I can actually complain, because I was ready to vote morm.

I'm still going to have a look at the votes, I think.

[Thinlómien]

Wait!

I checked the rules.

Durelin's pick might have been the bear (or the cobbler?) and she would still have died alone.

So, in fact, the bear who killed her needed not have been worried about dying in the process of eliminating her. In which case, there's no point in speculating who would have dared to kill her and who not. And even if we managed to figure out her pick, they could still be the bear or the cobbler.

Darn it.

[Thinlómien]

clues to identity:
has killed Hakon, Brinniel, Shasta and Durelin
has not been lynched yet

Okay... based on this, I would say the bear is at least somewhat experienced player (since he's not got a nervous breakdown or revealed himself yet and whether purposefully or not, he has managed to kill two gifteds) who favours careful tactics (all the kills are rather trail-less except for Durelin, who leads trails to half of the village). This might be crappy logic too, but I think a newer-player bear would sympathise with other newer players and would thus be unlikely to kill Hakon on Night2 - likewise, an old-timer bear would sympathise with other old-timers and not kill anyone he has a long history with on Night2.

This profilisation gives me three names: Form, Mac and Nerwen. Nessa and autume would probably have sympathised more with a fellow ww-novice, I'm not sure (no offense!) if Mira or Nienna would yet manage this smooth and effective game as lonely killers and Sally would probably be considerably more jumpy if everybody else in this game was her enemy ().

Form, Mac or Nerwen? It is easy for me to choose, because Form has strcuk me as bearish since Day2. Mac is a worthwhile option, but I'm not ready to go lynching him based on this, especially as Form is still alive. Nerwen doesn't seem too bearish because a bear would probably be more actively hunting wolves during the Days to look more innocent and to be rid of his arch eenemies before it's too late. Also, I believe that Nerwen could have been a bit more surprising in her kill choices if she was the bear.

[Thinlómien]

clues to identity:
their mate was Alona
they have attacked Lari, phantom, person x and Rikae

The wolves strike me as bolder than the bear and I really really would like to know whom they tried to attack on Night4. It is very difficult to draw a pattern of their kills, but I would say they're killing innocent-looking people. But is there something else? Did they choose Rikae because as a hunter she would probably not have picked any of them? (Since, if they were merely trying to kill someone generally considered innocent, why not Mac or Durelin instead?) I don't unfortunately have the time (at least now) to go through Rikae's posts from yesterDay, but if someone'd do that, it would be great.

Hmph, seems like this profilisation is bound to end up as a mere stump. Macalaure is the only one whom I don't suspect for wolvery at all (possibly because he promised to kill me on Night2 next time he's a wolf ).

[Thinlómien]

Before I forget: here are yesterDay's votes:

Originally Posted by the evil butterfly

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna
Morm-->Form
-- Morm --> Form
Autume --> Nienna
Nienna --> Morm
Durelin --> Nienna
Morm --> Nienna
Rikae --> Nienna
Sally --> Morm
--Mac --> Form
Mac --> Nienna
-- Durelin --> Nienna
Durelin --> Form

Morm 5, Nienna 4, Form 2, Autume 1

Of those alive, Mira's and Form's votes look the worst to me. I talked about Mira's vote already, and Form seems to be latching into a duel with morm without considering other options, which is rather counter-productive if he's innocent. Nerwen's and Autume's votes may be worth looking at too.