Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Why does the sun rise?

Because I put yeast in it.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Why does the sun rise?

Because I put yeast in it.

Last time I looked you were the fool, not the baker...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nilp

I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives.

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

Or the baker, or the candlestick maker. Not that we have one of those, but still. He was a sweet old man, the candlestick maker. Always used to take out a book a week, brought them back like clockwork he did. Granted they were a bit singed sometimes but I suppose that can't be helped, bless him. Besides, I'm a bit of a pyro. As long as it's not books being burned, of course.



*looks at time, flails* Going back to bed now I think. Either that or reading.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.

It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate

And anyway, the main issue would be this: Simply put, for the plan to come into action, we would need the Seer coming out and the Ranger coming out.

Actually, the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal. He would just go along with the plan and we would all just have to hope we don't lynch him or that they don't get killed by the wolves. Then, if the Ranger does die, if it was a Night where they were protecting the Seer then we'd have atleast one more Night out of the Seer and can get all of their dreams (even the innocent ones) and if the Ranger dies on a Night when the village has protected the Seer then we can get them to reveal then. There's always the possibility, that the Seer could die toNight. 19 players (since we're gonna lynch someone) - 4 wolves = 15, 2 kills, so like a 1 in 8 chance (if I can do math properly) of anyone dying. That's actually not very small.

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

So those are my thoughts. I'm only going to be around for about an hour, cause I have to go to work. I have an unexpected order in today, so I will be there 2 hours longer then expected, which means I'll probably only be here for the last hour of the Day. Was really hoping more had been said while I slept....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.

EDIT:E'd since Wilwa at #46.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I finally managed to kick Legate out of the house and Greenie away from the computer , so I'm here and I'll be reading now. Don't expect much of me, I'm probably going to manage to post once and vote before the DL! More activity toMorrow then...

[satansaloser2005]

Patricide ()brings the count to....


Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Hakon, Lommie, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


EDIT: x'd with Lommie. No problem, dearest.

[Hakon]

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

++Legate

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate

Still left to vote: Legate, Sally, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Lommie, Nienna, Nessa, Nog


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (2)

Still to vote: Legate, Wilwa, Pitchie, Alona, Lommie, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp


EDIT: x'd with Wilwa and Lommie

[Pitchwife]

Dang it, here I go again, wavering and second-guessing myself about my Kit suspicion. Her last post sounds agreeable enough on the surface, but looking closer at it, it seems just a little bit too noncommittal. The reason she gives for her vote for Brinn is a plain case of plagiarism, if I may say so; and however much I disagree with Brinn's own vote myself, I don't find it sufficient to condemn her.
On the other hand, Kit behaves much like I might (and have done) myself as an innocent when I'm completely clueless. I've never played with her, but if I'm not mistaken, she's quite an experienced player - wouldn't she do better if she really was a wolf? Maybe those of you who know her better than I do can tell.

[Mnemosyne]

Legate:

Why would the Ranger need to reveal?

EDIT: Heh. This is exactly what happens when you don't realize there's a second page.

[Mnemosyne]

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

[Mnemosyne]

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)

Originally Posted by Little Mnemo

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

You do have a point there, and I'll give it to you. If the wolves get the gifteds right off, though, they can have it. (Not that I'd want them to get the gifteds, but you get my point. If the wolves are that good they deserve the kill.) If the seer thinks they're in danger (or ranger, for that matter, although that's a slightly different matter) then by all means we'll institute your plan. I just think that putting the gifteds out in the open right off isn't the best plan, that's all.

Originally Posted by Duck!!!

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

*shrugs* I might be happy to try it later. I just don't think right now's the time to do it. And have a good afternoon!


And with that I must dash myself. I'll be back after I've had a nap, lunch, and a shower, probably in that order. See you later in the Day!


EDIT: x'd with Dun Dun Dun, a chicken Legate, and....oh, look, I found Mnemo too! (Sorry, feeling really silly today)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, all in all, as for that Seer matter - I certainly think we should not do it now anymore. In my opinion, the best would be really to do it only when the Seer has at least some known Wolf, though Mr. Nog's suggestion is not that bad itself either (but my reasons for saying this and trying to be rather careful are because I can well imagine a Seer who can dream four consequent Nights only about innocents, of whom half are killed during that time - something like that happened to a great-grandfather of mine once upon a time). Well, the Seer will choose himself/herself anyway. And as for the protection of both eventual Seers, if two revealed themselves, may I point out that I mentioned the same possibility already a long time ago

Otherwise: To finish my thoughts - Inziladun, I feel it hard to say anything definite, I guess I'll probably move him to the "no idea" cathegory for now. Nogrod, since he posted now, seems his typical reasonable and "gambling" (or how to call that... maybe "adventurous" would sound more proper) self. Neither are likely to get my vote for either of the funny activities our village has to offer.

Ooh, speaking of that, Mister Nogrod... didn't you, perchance, give a thought to finding yourself some nice company for your retirement? I mean, you have plenty of time on your hands, what about finding yourself a charming young girl to keep you company in your lonely days? Just for a small fee I could look around and find you a lovely young lady, what says you...

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

[Mnemosyne]

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

[Brinniel]

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble.

Exactly! It is risky!

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

Makes me think Brinn quite good at this point.

[Nienna]

I think that Pitchwife brought an interesting point about guarding someone who might be a quiet wolf. I think that it might actually be a good idea and something to think about for toDay. Since it is quite hard to make any suspicions or to know enough about someone to trust them toDay we could guard someone in the hopes of getting a quiet wolf. We can and should use guarding to actually guard someone during the Night after toDay but I think that using it to try and give us some more information for toMorrow might be a good idea. Just a thought.

Edit: x-ed since 89

[Inziladun]

Well, I see there's been a deal of discussion by many, though precious little to aid me in my decisions thus far.
What's that, Boro? Pig loins? Not just now. But thank you anyway.
Though folks are thinking some of what strikes them as suspicious, which is good, I haven't seen much, if any, consideration of to whom the Guards should be assigned tonight, which is almost as important.
I'm thinking Nerwen perhaps. Music hath charms...etc.

x/d with Nog and Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

Originally Posted by Mayor Eönwë

And if that person is a wolf, then he or she will not be able to join his or her fellows, which will lead to less carnage in the Night.

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

++wilwarin538

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?


EDIT: x'd since....Mnemo's last, I believe

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

Very true. That's why I said if we know there's no ranger save.


Steve, oh high and mighty mod, would you tell us if there was a ranger save or just let us wonder? *bows, backs away humbly*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts?

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

Fair enough, and I'd go for that too. Whether we hit target #2 (if you will) or wolf #4 (again, if you will) we still save a person's life. But if we get a wolf they can't kill anyone (or rather can only kill one person) where if we protect Sally the Insufferable Innocent (or whoever we think is clean) the wolves will just pick someone else.


Really, I'm up for anything. This whole guarding thing is super cool, man.


EDIT: x'd with greenie *glomps her*

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Noggy

Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

I find Nogrod's post about Lommy a bit unsettling, if truth be told. First he says that she is known as the ultimate flip-flopper and then accuses her because of flip-flopping? But what is more interesting is that what he sees as conflicting (flip-floppy) scenarios that come to have the same agenda looks to me like two different reasons for the same thing which is not flip-floppy at all.

Also, I don't like that "So...?" in the end. It looks evil. But really, it does! The sort of "I'm just dropping this idea and letting you others continue the thought, so I can't be blamed for bringing up the argument, he-he-hee." (Oh, too bad, now I'm actually imagining him behind his computer saying "he-he-hee" in a devilish voice and the image makes me giggle. I'm evidently too tired for werewolf.)


EDIT: x-ed since Brinn's vote

[Boromir88]

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:

This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.

which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison.

Kitanna's post 9

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again

What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.

He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

I have been actually thinking about the same at first, but it sounded too good and too advantageous to be true. Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

But it indeed seems - or at least you support me in thinking so - that if we have 4 WWs and Guard one of them, there will be only one kill per Night. Isn't it a bit strong? Well, maybe (though it could be argued that we have little chance to pick and guard a Wolf early on, and later on, again, we will probably have only three WWs, so not much of a difference). But indeed, in the beginning, it might be interesting to try to vote for some "ambiguous" players and thus see if we can either protect a person or with good enough luck nail a totally unsuspicious Wolf. Let's not overdo it, however, as by protecting a Wolf, we are sort of throwing away the tool to keep alive those players to whom we trust, which is the main point of this Guard thing. I think at least after we have just 3 Wolves it loses its sense to guard people who we think are Wolves. (Although, still we'd protect them from communicating with their packmates, but then - well, not that important in comparison to protecting somebody, I think, although it would be a nice experiment to create nice havoc among the Wolves Still, as we don't know who is the Wolf, and if we knew, we'd probably rather lynch him than protect him, I think it's a bit pointless.)

Enough of rant, anyway, conclusion from this: I am really wondering about voting to protect Lommy then, like I said already above with the same reasons. But I'll see - I'll probably be gone now for a while, but hope to post at least once to vote before the DL, and see what's up. Till then, probably...

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

Yep, of course there will, and if you read my post again you'll see I was talking about those points in the game when we have either all 4 wolves or only 1 of them left, not what happens inbetween with three or two.
Apart from that, I pretty much agree with you.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine.

Great minds think alike.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

You can call me a conservative, but the idea doesn't generally seem like something I'd like to try and for both of the reasons, even though they are a bit contradictory. However, it makes sense if you think it the way that you wouldn't like to try a plan that feels a bit like cheating AND may not work at all. That's how I feel.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?

I said I DO NOT want random votes. I hate them. But there could be discussion about something else. And I just simply don't like the idea, it's not carefully enough thought through and it feels unfair, like I already said. I would feel the same way with any role, but I don't get why it makes me wolvish that I criticise it: I think it's rather the contrary, I think those who are the most eager to develop the ideas may be some people desperate to hide their fur.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm getting bad vibes from Kitanna, but I get that every single time I play with her. That's why I'm not enthusiastic about the bandwagon against her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...

Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.


xed with everybody