Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nienna · 09-03-2009, 11:03 AM

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed.

X-ed with two Nerwens and a Shasta

Nerwen · 09-03-2009, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Exactly– it's not like we're irrevocably committing ourselves to doing this for the rest of the game, which seems to be Legate's assumption. (He said it wasn't at one point, but actually his whole argument does seem to rest on it.)

Legate of Amon Lanc · 09-03-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Well yea, I see that. Though, could you not decide that just THEORETICALLY? Because you would realise, even if you think of it just theoretically (not practically) that you CANNOT trust the guarding results. Heck, we already said as much even yesterDay. The only thing this lynch proves is whether you were right or wrong in MY case, nothing more and nothing less. Next time it happens, you would have to do it again. And in such case, until you guard a Wolf, nothing will change. And see my above examples.

Inziladun · 09-03-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nienna

Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed.

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you.

Nienna · 09-03-2009, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.

And thanks for the guard, Nerwen. It would help me sleep, lacking a tuneful lullaby from you.

I'm sorry maybe I just read more into your post than you were intending. It just seemed as if you were accusing me of wolvery.

Brinniel · 09-03-2009, 12:17 PM

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

Nogrod · 09-03-2009, 12:58 PM

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night?

Well, were you an innocent Legate you'd have thought about it. So were you afraid of stating it as it would seem like a desperate move on your side? I mean the chances of a ranger-save this early in this big village sure are minuscule - but that is a chance anyway and as an innocent you could have tried us to think about it as well? But as a wolf you passed it?

But anyway. Kudos for your brave effort - and by times you made me waver with my judgement. But anyway it looks like you focus on things that do not look like you're honestly defending your innocent self but are trying something else.

Like...

You make a big point how it would be disadvantageous to us to robotically lynch all the "protected" while the wolves would restrain their kills... sure. And then you kind of add that well, of course we might not do that - which is so true. But at the same time the whole argument you elaborated in long posts to defend you collapses.

Also your argument about the wolves controlling the village are a bit far-fetched. We get "known innocents" only so far when there are two Night kills eg. four wolves. And even that knowledge is shadowed by the possibility of a ranger-save or the wolves bluffing (not that I believe in the second one, it's just against any odds they would choose: too little gain from too much a cost).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

Hakon · 09-03-2009, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night?

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

Quote:

I will mention that there was a save.

The above quote was Eönwë's answer to the question of weather it would be made clear that it was a ranger save or not.

Thinlómien · 09-03-2009, 01:14 PM

I find this Legate thing even more interesting than before for a simple reason: what he has been desperately trying to convince us of is actually very close to the theory I mentioned having about him being alive and said I'd tell you later about. It puzzles me a bit that he came up with it too - I was kind of thinking "if he's smart and innocent, he'll say it aloud and I'll know he's not a wolf" but that logic is a bit faulty, no doubt.

Anyhow, to me his defence does make sense. By keeping their kills at one the wolves are, for sure, losing an advantage they have (two kills) but they're also preventing us from using a very powerful advantage: every guard vote with two kills is a seer dream shared by all the village (so it can't die with any single person). If there are two kills, we've guarded an innocent, if there's just one, we've guarded a wolf. Simple as that. I was hesitant to point this out in case the wolves hadn't realised it this far, but with Legate shouting all that to the world (for a believable reson if he's innocent and no further harm done if he's a wolf), that's not adding much to what has been said.

Therefore, Legate being alive does not mean he's guilty. If I as a wolf would have thought as far on Night 2 as I as an innocent did on Day2 (which is more probable than probable) I would have told my pack to abstain from the second kill. And because I believe I'm not the smartest of all the people in the village, a wolf must've have thought of what I just thought of too.

But I'm not claiming Legate's innocent - he could still, according to a simpler explanation of things, be a wolf. But that doesn't make what he and I have said about the power of night guarding as a method of revealing stuff any less true.

edit: xed with Legate, Sally and Boro

Legate of Amon Lanc · 09-03-2009, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh, interesting. Has no one really thought of the ranger saving us the last Night?

Well, were you an innocent Legate you'd have thought about it. So were you afraid of stating it as it would seem like a desperate move on your side? I mean the chances of a ranger-save this early in this big village sure are minuscule - but that is a chance anyway and as an innocent you could have tried us to think about it as well? But as a wolf you passed it?

As noted above, it was announced a loooong time ago that Ranger save will be mentioned. Yesterday, I believe it was sally who asked about it.

Quote:

But anyway. Kudos for your brave effort - and by times you made me waver with my judgement. But anyway it looks like you focus on things that do not look like you're honestly defending your innocent self but are trying something else.

If you are innocent (of which I am not very sure right now), you will be appreciating my brave effort a lot more if I die, I guess, but a bit too late at least from my point of view.

Quote:

You make a big point how it would be disadvantageous to us to robotically lynch all the "protected" while the wolves would restrain their kills... sure. And then you kind of add that well, of course we might not do that - which is so true. But at the same time the whole argument you elaborated in long posts to defend you collapses.

And what should I do? Lie? Or say that the village indeed is a group of robots? (At least people like you - if you are not a Wolf - now ARE. Sorry.)

Quote:

Also your argument about the wolves controlling the village are a bit far-fetched. We get "known innocents" only so far when there are two Night kills eg. four wolves.

And you mean i.e. once again. (That's what you get for accusing me

Hm, I am actually being nice...)

Quote:

And even that knowledge is shadowed by the possibility of a ranger-save or the wolves bluffing (not that I believe in the second one, it's just against any odds they would choose: too little gain from too much a cost).

Not on a Night when an innocent is protected. And certainly not on first Night when an innocent is protected. Surely a player as reasonable as you must see that.

Quote:

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

Oh true, I forgot about that. Preparing grounds already for toDay, were you?

Quote:

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

Oh, sadly. Too much is at stake. Getting the first Wolf as late as possible is necessary for the four of you, all sportmanship aside.

satansaloser2005 · 09-03-2009, 01:21 PM

Actually, rereading Noggie's post, he did mean last Night as in last Night. Silly me.

Nogrod · 09-03-2009, 01:21 PM

I think Hakon speaks sense and we should think about other things toDay as well. And thank's for clarifying that narration-ruling I had missed.

Well first...

What Brinn said about Sally's actions at the end of Day1 I do find noteworthy - Sally's explanations notwithstanding. Hanging around minute by minute but not making even a short comment on her intentions is downright creepy - and lupine to me. It's interrsting that even if the wolves basically know that their leaning back around the DL just watching things happen and being careful not to make any possibly meddlesome moves is the most suspicious thing there is they still do it time and time again.

Not that I think Sally is a wolf for sure, but she has crawled quite high on my suspicions.

EDIT: X'd with a host to the previous page...

09-03-2009, 11:03 AM	#1
Nienna Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: School Posts: 642	Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc. Zil is the only reason you suspect me because I suspect you? This seems a bit flawed. X-ed with two Nerwens and a Shasta __________________ Puddle! Puddle!

09-03-2009, 12:17 PM	#6
Brinniel Reflection of Darkness Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull. Posts: 2,983	Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon: Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes. Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote. Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me. Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious. wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence. Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day. The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me. So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious: Sally Inziladun Pitchwife Lommy wilwa Nerwen Boromir __________________ Nolite te bastardes carborundorum

09-03-2009, 01:14 PM	#9
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	I find this Legate thing even more interesting than before for a simple reason: what he has been desperately trying to convince us of is actually very close to the theory I mentioned having about him being alive and said I'd tell you later about. It puzzles me a bit that he came up with it too - I was kind of thinking "if he's smart and innocent, he'll say it aloud and I'll know he's not a wolf" but that logic is a bit faulty, no doubt. Anyhow, to me his defence does make sense. By keeping their kills at one the wolves are, for sure, losing an advantage they have (two kills) but they're also preventing us from using a very powerful advantage: every guard vote with two kills is a seer dream shared by all the village (so it can't die with any single person). If there are two kills, we've guarded an innocent, if there's just one, we've guarded a wolf. Simple as that. I was hesitant to point this out in case the wolves hadn't realised it this far, but with Legate shouting all that to the world (for a believable reson if he's innocent and no further harm done if he's a wolf), that's not adding much to what has been said. Therefore, Legate being alive does not mean he's guilty. If I as a wolf would have thought as far on Night 2 as I as an innocent did on Day2 (which is more probable than probable) I would have told my pack to abstain from the second kill. And because I believe I'm not the smartest of all the people in the village, a wolf must've have thought of what I just thought of too. But I'm not claiming Legate's innocent - he could still, according to a simpler explanation of things, be a wolf. But that doesn't make what he and I have said about the power of night guarding as a method of revealing stuff any less true. edit: xed with Legate, Sally and Boro __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

09-03-2009, 01:21 PM	#11
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Actually, rereading Noggie's post, he did mean last Night as in last Night. Silly me. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

09-03-2009, 01:21 PM	#12
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I think Hakon speaks sense and we should think about other things toDay as well. And thank's for clarifying that narration-ruling I had missed. Well first... What Brinn said about Sally's actions at the end of Day1 I do find noteworthy - Sally's explanations notwithstanding. Hanging around minute by minute but not making even a short comment on her intentions is downright creepy - and lupine to me. It's interrsting that even if the wolves basically know that their leaning back around the DL just watching things happen and being careful not to make any possibly meddlesome moves is the most suspicious thing there is they still do it time and time again. Not that I think Sally is a wolf for sure, but she has crawled quite high on my suspicions. EDIT: X'd with a host to the previous page... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...