Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting first with quotes of reasons given. There are no explanations for known innocent votes (to save time).


Morsul -> Nienna
(“firstly she acts far too innocent to be also notice Mccab put quotes around innocent Hmm a slip on our mods part?”)
Hakon -> Inzil
(“He has a track record as being a wolf and he has gotten past my radar every time. I am not taking the risk of letting him live.”)
Loslote -> Pitchie
(“same as Inzil, only his posts worry me more. He seemed to be jokingly trying to get on everyone's good side...but it might just be Day 1 behavior.” What she said of Inzil: “I'm not entirely comfortable with him, but nothing that I can really base a suspicion on.”)
Crayon -> Inzil 2
(no reason whatsoever given for the vote)
wilwa -> Hakon
(“So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them”)
Spm -> Loslote
(“Overall, Loslote’s activity comes across to me as typically Wolfish. Posting a fair bit to show she’s engaged, trying to look helpful, but actually avoiding saying very much of anything at all.”)
- 1.42 Nienna -> Pitchie 2
- 1.28 Nogrod -> Nienna 2
- 1.13 Kit -> wilwa
- 1.12 Roa -> Spm
(“Because he has been throwing around suspicion as if it had the full weight of sound reasoning behind it when it didn't. And also because in all of his actual suspicions (not counting the banter) someone else expressed if not suspicion then unease or wariness in that direction first, which he then played up into a case with no merit.”)
- 1.05 Pitchie -> Spm
- 0.48 Inzil -> Spm 2
(“If this turns out to be a bust, we'll have an obvious target toMorrow.”)
- 0.45 Legate -> Spm 3
(“I don't think there is anything to wonder about, it would really make no sense to make a claim here if it was untrue...”)
- 0.43 Nerwen -> Spm 4
(“Well, then, it's now easy)
- 0.34 Greenie -> Spm 5
- 0.32 Lari -> Spm 6
(“If he is a wolf, that will validate Pitch.”)
- 0.18 Brinn -> Spm 7
(“Okay, I believe you since I see absolutely no reason a baddie would false reveal at this point, but I still think it is rather premature to be revealing even if you have caught a wolf. For one thing, seers have been known to catch two wolves in the past, but revealing now severely limits that opportunity. Though I'm glad at least you waited until the end of the Day so that we'll still have plenty of posts to analyse toMorrow from before we knew Spm's role (and thus be more likely to find connections).”)


A few other remarks on Day1 (looking basically at Inzil - but also Spm, Hakon and wilwa).

EDIT: Blah... I pushed the send button when I was trying to push the preview button... Okay, the rest in a minute...

[Nogrod]

First of all must be said that with wilwa and Hakon we have just soo different players in front of us. The one being very much streetwise, making good general points and being active; the other being short and straightforward bordering on letting an impression he's not totally at home with this...

Originally Posted by Wilwa #29

No way am I gonna make it obvious that I'm a wolf just to make you're life easier.....oops.

I don't like these jokes. They always smell at least like a small rat.


Then there is this nice pick: a wolf addressing his fellow…

Originally Posted by Spm #32

And there was me thinking that you would vote for whoever looks least suspicious to you ...

Actually, I think wilwa has it about right. Barring any major slip-ups from the Wolves, Day 1 votes are pretty much random, whatever reasons people might come up with. Except the Wolves' votes, of course. And that is one of the main reasons why what happens on Day 1 can be so useful on Day 2.

And I just don't know what to say of this...

Originally Posted by Hakon #51

Also on a side note, I think SPM is a wolf. There is no way he is an ordinary innocent. I mean he is back now after being gone for years, it makes perfect sense to give him some kind of non ordinary innocent role so he can show off his apparently awesome skills at werewolf.

But as Legate already noted, I also started feeling a bit better of Inzil after reading him. But check the following posts yourselves...

First there is this quite cool reaction to an early vote by Hakon

Originally Posted by Inzil #56

I'd prefer to earn a lynching with my actions in this circumstance, but there you go.

Although if they were mates this would be understandable reaction to a fellow-wolf's vote...

Originally Posted by Inzil #96

Hakon's vote, as so many have noted, was illogical, but it is somewhat in character for him to vote based on hunches and such. I don't think I'll go for him toDay.

That one was actually a crosspost with Pitchie's revealment...

But would a wolf say this after a revealment he knows is true and seeing the votes rolling in for his mate?

Originally Posted by Inzil #108

I guess it's possible Pitch could be the Agent, but trusting him for now seems to be the logical thing to do. At least we'll have somthing concrete to go on toMorrow, one way or the other.

Wouldn't it be easier to just go with the flow as basically everyone did?


How about wilwa who before Pitchie’s revelation said this as an answer to Hakon suspecting Spm for meta-game reasons (quoted above).

Originally Posted by wilwa #73

And keep in mind, if you insist to use that sort of logic for SPM, that wolf is not the only non-ordinary innocent role. And most roles are chosen randomly any who, so it's not that unlikely that he's innocent.

Okay. I'll check Day2 before making any deductions myself...

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote

Day 1

Post 1- "I'm here"

Post 2- DL isn't very good for her

Post 3- Tells Morsul that the narration doesn't hold any clues

Post 4- Reminds Morsul to be invisible

Post 5- Response to Craydon's idea

Post 6- Response to Inzil about Craydon's idea

First six posts and nothing of consequence. Not necessarily evil. It is only her second game.

Post 7- List!
Suspicious: SPM and Pitch
Everyone else: No read?

It's hard to tell what she's getting at. She says things like, "posted-nice sounding nothings," but didn't elaborate. She either finds everyone slightly suspicous in someway (unless they haven't been on) or no one suspicious at all except SPM and Pitch

Post 8- Votes Pitch

An early vote, which is always at a disadvantage. She did give a reason, even if it was poor, but a lot of people were doing that at the time. Day 1 had nothing suspicous except for the 7th post, and that was understandable, given the Day and the lack of evidence.


Day 2

Post 1- Statement on reveals: Agent- Morsul, Priest- Wilwa, Pitch- Dreamer
gives reasons for each

Sound ideas, but mostly what had already been said, reasoning and all.

Post 2- Corrects the odds of finding a wolf. Agrees that we should leave the "gifteds" alone for now, says we'll only know for sure if Pitch dies tonight

She confuses the roles a bit, but since they have different names it;s not surprising. I can understand her point.

Post 3- Apologizes for mixing up the roles.

Post 4- decides to look at Legate's posts "at random", decides Legate is an ordo.

I found this post confusing, because her response to alot of Legate's posts make it sound like she thinks Legate is suspicious, but at the end she just drops it. It seems very non-sequitor.

Post 5- Votes Nogrod because of post #238, doesn't feel very secure about his vote.

The vote for Nogrod came out of nowhere, but it seems she felt rushed and confused, which is understandable given the events of the Day. Aside from from looks like non-sequitor reasoning, there really isn't anything suspicious.


Day 3

Post 1- Thinks Hakon is a wolf. Suspects Brinn- first post was very similar to SPM, and has generally been ignored- and Nogrod- for his suspicion on Roa?

I don't follow her reasoning on Nogrod, but I can see how Brinn would make her uneasy.

Post 2- Doesn't suspect Inzil, Roa- can't say, Legate- fluffy but not furry, Crayon- unsuspicious, Lari- nothing, Waiting for Pitch

At least she's very clear about her opinions.

Post 4- still worried by Brinn, thinks she is the other wolf

Post 5- reclarifies for Roa the suspicions about Brinn

Post 6- further clarification, per Roa's request

Honestly, I see nothing suspicious about Loslote. Her reasons remain structurally sound, even if they seem non-sequitor to me. But then, not everyone uses the same reasoning I do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I am just posting this to help myself and others focus a bit. It's less overwhelming that way. If we ignore Hakon and Wilwa, and we each take our own role into account, that leaves 7 people for each of us to look at in order to find the last wolf.

Knowns:
Pitchwife- seer
Nogrod- Innocent
Morsul- Agent

50/50:
Hakon- wolf/priest
wilwa- wolf/priest

One of these is the last wolf:
Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Craydon1
Nerwen
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

Yep, as you see, I have already corrected that.

EDIT: Although thinking of it, it's not THAT definite. Not so definite that I'd completely leave her out... hmm... maybe I could go re-read her posts too.