TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I think the maths is wrong. But only to the extent that there are 6 ordos as, according to the narrative, there are definately four Wolves. And a Werebear. And a Cobbler ...

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Well, three wolves would have been better, but thanks for the clarification.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I am glad that's cleared up, although I'm not exactly enthused by the outcome. Indeed, perhaps we should have kept the idea of a 'friendly Wolf' going for longer, as it would most certainly have confused the Wolves.

Not at all happy, though, with how quickly Roa was to jump on my misunderstanding. Quite apart from anything else, posing as a 'friendly Wolf', would be a pretty suicidal tactic for a Wolf ...

[Brinniel]

Just checking in. I'm at work now, so I really don't have time to say much (plus these school computers like to automatically log me out every 15 minutes). I have classes all day most of the week so for most Days I won't be around again until the last few hours. So in case anyone wonders where I am during a good span of the Day...that's why.

Anyway, it looks like mostly what's been going on is a lot of confusion, which has now been clarified. For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side. It's perhaps something I should take a better look at later toDay along with other discussions that may arise.

With the wolves and werebear, there's really no easy way to identify one from the other except that possible connections can be found between wolves. And usually those connections can't be identified until one is dead (unless the seer reveals a living wolf). The werebear is most difficult to catch because he works alone and the only way we can trace him other than by suspicious behaviour is through his Nightly kills. It would certainly be nice to eliminate the werebear quickly so to prevent too many double Night kills, but we also want to be quick to narrow down the number of wolves since there are four of them. Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two. Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

EDIT: X-ed with last two posts, which makes a really long time to write a post of this size. I keep getting interrupted...stupid work.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

For the most part, it all the confusion looks perhaps to be genuine, though I won't eliminate the possibility of a bluffing baddie. Faking ignorance is a good strategy to make someone look innocent. I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Genuine confusion on the part of the cobbler or bear is also possible, I suppose.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Really we shouldn't try to lynch one or the another; we should just lynch those who act suspiciously as we normally do and hopefully they'll turn out to be one of the two.

Yes... I made that already.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Of course, what would be really nice is if the wolves and werebear were to take care of each other at Night for us.

Indeed, but talking about it certainly won't make it happen. (See last game with a Bear!)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out a wolf or cobbler (though probably more likely the latter) was encouraging the Friendly Wolf idea, since that could be used to their advantage to make the village think that a baddie was on their side.

Quite frankly, I am astonished that anyone could think the ‘friendly Wolf’ idea to have been a ruse by a baddie to sow confusion. Now that I understand the correct meaning of the passage concerned, I am at a loss to see how anyone who immediately understood its correct meaning would even have spotted the opportunity to misconstrue the narrative, let alone have had any confidence that such misconstruction would provide the opportunity for sustained confusion (which would have required a good portion of the Village to accept, or go along with, the misconstruction as the true position).

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves. It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Quite frankly, I am astonished that anyone could think the ‘friendly Wolf’ idea to have been a ruse by a baddie to sow confusion. Now that I understand the correct meaning of the passage concerned, I am at a loss to see how anyone who immediately understood its correct meaning would even have spotted the opportunity to misconstrue the narrative, let alone have had any confidence that such misconstruction would provide the opportunity for sustained confusion (which would have required a good portion of the Village to accept, or go along with, the misconstruction as the true position).

Hey, it's day 1 and we need to vote for someone. Misconstruing the facts is a very good tactic for a wolf. My very next post was to state that I believed you were confused. You're being very jumpy about this.

One thing which might well have been a ruse, however, was Roa’s apparent initial belief that there were only three Wolves. It could well have been intended to suggest, even if only subliminally, that she cannot possibly be a Wolf because otherwise she would have known that there were four Wolves.

Actually, it was me only skimming through the rules initially. Oops on my part. But Morsul also thought there were only three wolves, and you thought that there were only three wolves working against us. Making a mistake is not the same as a ruse, and a lot of people were confused by the rules.

It’s not much on its own but, combined with her quickness to jump on my misunderstanding and her expressed suspicion of Nerwen, seemingly based only on Nerwen’s early accusations (which were clearly flippant, in my view), it makes me rather uneasy about her, moreso than anyone else at present.

Again, it's day 1. My suspicion of Nerwen is based on the way she jumped on your statements to Inzil. It's not much, but it's basically the only thing that looks really suspicious right now, except for your clearly wrong friendly wolf theory, and I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt on that one, because it would be pretty silly of you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

Hey, it's day 1 and we need to vote for someone.

Indeed.

Still, I am some way off the point where I need to vote, and there are a fair few who have not yet spoken, so I am reserving judgment for now.

[Pitchwife]

What's going on between Roa and SpM at the moment looks like a classical suspicion match between two active innocents to me. Nice TV for the wolves.

Originally Posted by Roa

My suspicion of Nerwen is based on the way she jumped on your statements to Inzil.

For clarification, you're referring to this here, right?:

Originally Posted by Nerwen #30

Also, perhaps the fact that at the same time Inzil seems to be sort of leaving himself the option of suspecting Greenie too:

However, he may have thought I was being more serious than I was. I should have thought my "Another guilty post" comment was pretty obviously over-the-top, though.

As in, a wolf latching on to and feeding an innocent's suspicion of another innocent, you mean? (Not that we know either Zil or SpM are innocent, of course!) I see your point, but wouldn't make that much of it, as she leaves open the possibility that Zil made more of her statement than she meant. Still, this looks like the most serious suspicion she's voiced up to now, the rest having been more playful, so it bears thinking about.

EDIT: typo fixed.