TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nogrod]

This is in hindsight to be sure, but anyway. I probably could have said this yesterDay already (actually I think I did say people voting for Hakon or Morsul are "safe-voters"), but it's so much easier now.

But it was as easy to the wolves who know who are not among them already yesterDay...

So people voting for Hakon or Morsul I think were ones that wished to stay out of the fray as they were clearly the "easy lynches": the one being annoyed by everyone with his meta-reasonings and the other of his awkwardness.

But they both have been succesful in what they do in the earlier games. It's only their way of playing that clearly makes people think they're easy to vote. As they both turned out gifteds (well, innocents anyway) I can't help feeling those who have played with them lately and being lupine now would have wished to do away with them with both of these reasons.


So Morsul was voted by:

Spm - I would have thought he would have made a smarter decision in the beginning but going on the odd one (hindsight, yes, but really Spm?). The wolves seldom are that out in the open even if Morsul had been one in the last game: you just can't make your vote based on that Spm! You should know it, so why?
Loslote - suspiciously placed vote, but less suspicious than Spm's (who still would be the cobbler I think).
Hakon - the seer but clearly one who doesn't read too much - or doesn't write out what he reads...
Boro - Bear, so out for an easy lunch? Probably so.
Fea - an artsy kill suitable to her persona. Could be whatever... I mean that is a real 50-50. It's not only "I wouldn't put it past her" but it would also be "she would do just that". The only problem is what is the motive behind what she did?


The only thing about the Hakon voters I think is worthwhile mentioning (that I think has not been noted before and might bear some wittness) is the following.

Hakon was greatly disliked on D1 - for a reason. But it is interesting that he was voted in concerto by Sally and Lari one after another - in a situation where Morsul had three votes and Spm had two.

Now are they two innocents who just looked at Morsul as being just his odd self and thought Spm innocent - and thus went on Hakon who had been disliked by many.

Or were they (one of them) thinking they could override the Spm wagon by voting Hakon who was so much disliked while believing the Morsul-wagon was too easy or not-backed by the late-voters?

As Morsul was not a wolf, the two had no reason to not let him get lynched (were they wolves / either of them being one). But picking another similar-kind of subject is an interesting choice indeed... did they (one of them) foresee Morsul was getting lynched and thus they thought it better to vote for someone else not to be involved in the bandwagon?

Or did they wish to leave open the chance Spm would be lynched - or not take part in lynching of either Morsul or Spm they both (one of them) knew was innocent?

I'm not sure I can follow my own logic anymore... or whether I should be able to put it into a more simple form...

And it's late. Voting time in a second...

[Nogrod]

Okay... Greenie, McCaber, Lari or Sally I think will be my choices toDay.

Just who?

There are so different reasons to vote for anyone of them...

[Nogrod]

Lari and Sally would have to have been in cahoots and try to save Spm their mate in crime for that scenario to be true... or then one of them (or both?) just wished to lay low and make a safe and probably nonsequiential lynch?

Whatever, I find it too blind a try to separate between the two and find them less suspicious as my other two candidates. But if they are not going to step up their act I will actually call for lynching them, if we have time for it.

But Greenie and McCaber actually look worse to me.

My only problem is to say which one seems more guilty. I wouldn't be surprised if both of them were wolves - or have you seen them talking about each other?

That actually is a point. McCaber has been really careful not to suspect too many people, well basically none but me (making a 180 degree turn from D1 when I had not suspected him so far), and Greenie made a vague list saying over half of the people were suspicious but she put into that list people she could only say "not much to say" - or things like that.


Of the two I'd say McCaber looks now more the one that just doesn't follow the thread and plays with his left hand while Greenie clearly is up to the situation and looks like more conscious of what she does.

Blah...

++ Greenie

Edit: X'd from Brinn onwards...

[Pitchwife]

Brinn, thanks for digging into the Nog/Greenie/Roa triangle, you took the words right out of my keyboard. I was starting to feel slightly uneasy about Roa's vote for Greenie - coming at the moment when it started to look like Nog might vote somebody else - and just had the horrible thought, "What if Greenie was right?" Agree it's far from conclusive, but good to have the idea out in the open and keep it there for toMorrow.
Especially now that Nog has voted for Greenie after all.
(There maybe another explanation for this collusion, of course...<3)

Gah. Voting time.
++Fea
For reasons given above. And because Poe said in The Principle of Composition there's nothing more poetic than the death of a beautiful woman.

Good night.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm getting this out right now before anything else: I'VE BEEN SICK PEOPLE. I EVEN MENTIONED THIS TO MIRA AND MENTIONED IT YESTERDAY IN MY POST. READ PEOPLE.

I finally feel better, I've been feeling LIKE AN ELEPHANT HAS BEEN SITTING ON MY FACE for the past few days.

I will be back with an actual post but I've just been getting really annoyed about this.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Greenie

It was because he made weak reasons sound big and because he suspected people who had been voiced some suspicion of, which stank of wolf.

It seems to me that, based on these reasons and given that it was Day 1, her vote for Noggie yesterDay was quite reasonable. I have myself noted his tendency to exagerrate things to make cases against people. And it's fair to say that his early suspicions yesterDay did focus on those who had already come under some scrutiny. So, I would have expected her to prod and probe him further toDay. But she has done nothing of the sort. Instead, she has backed off and turned instead to the 'submarines', perhaps because they will put up less of a fight.

Looking back on her posts, however, what struck me most was her list at #194. First off, it's one of those lists which says very little. Most of the comments are of the 'seems innocent' or 'too little to go on' variety. Her main substantive points are against Nog, not surprising given her previous vote for him, and Roa, who she thinks "so sensible it frightens" her (which could be an attempt to win favour by flattery). I don't like these kinds of list as they give the impression of helpfulness without actually saying much of anything at all. Which is potentially Wolfish behaviour. Second, she says of sally in this list that there is 'too little to go on', and yet ends up voting for her, without sally having said anything more, because she was "maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines" (#215). From nothing to go on to maybe the most evil of the quiet ones with little reasoning that I can see in between? Hmm.

I have made up my mind.

++A Little Green

[Loslote]

I'm here. I'm reading. I'll post in a minute...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nog

Couldn't it mean we're right about them then?

Quite possibly. Hence my vote.

Originally Posted by Nog

And why say you're no part of the "consensus" but still give the impression you agree with it?

Actually, I was accepting that I was now (not no) part of the consensus.

Originally Posted by me

I am wary of this growing consensus against them, of which I am now a part, but they do both look rather suspicious.

Nightie Night all.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

We keep shooting Hakon down, but in the last three games he has now hunted a wolf, protected the seer, and dreamt a werebear. He must be doing something right

Or its sheer dumb luck. I was a gifted or wolf(it alternated) for the first six games I played and was made, intentionally, an ordo in Boro's game. At this point I'm thinking its all luck. He doesn't have to be doing something right.

Also why are we all assuming he dreamed of Boro? Its an easy guess, but its not known. For all we know he dreamed of Fea or Sally(other good dream choices).

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So Lari and sally are ill (I wasn't aware of that, explains the can't-be-bothered attitude), and wilwa has said she's busy and might even have to drop out;

I saw this after my other post and just wanted to say thank you.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If everyone did that on Day1 (really tried to look for the baddies laying points on them) the Day1's would be real opportunities to lynch a wolf instead of easy hunker-down bandwagons that seem to hit gifteds and innocents more often than the wolves (because the wolves know who to vote). It's pretty frustrating to be the only one (well, one of the few) to actually try something on D1 and get load of X from that.

How do you suppose we do that? It's Day 1. What, we analyze people's greeting posts? "Oh Nog said Hi, but Sally said Hey THAT MEANS THEY ARE WOLVES". While I would love a productive Day 1, most of the time when a baddie is lynched on Day 1, unless a Seer reveals, it is luck. Looking for slip ups on Day 1, fine, but how often do wolves really leave traces that you can still till one of them is killed?

If we all followed your rules we may get a wolf, or in future games wolves would speak up more and become more intelligent. Then how would you vote?

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I am still toying with the idea of voting for either Lari or sally, on the basis of yesterDay's Hakon vote. But Lari has not appeared toDay and sally has said little of consequence. So there is nothing more to go on toDay for either of them. Which may, I suppose, be a reason in itself to vote for one of them. But, if I do, which one?

First of all, I did appear right at the beginning of the Day(and I just saw your mention of that...maybe I'm not as better as I thought considering I've read that post five times already and just saw that). And went to bed before anything of consequence happened. Second, and this is a general second, why is everyone assuming(and by that I mean SPM, Inzil, Pitch, Greenie, and Nog), assuming that since Sally and I voted(and to be honest I didn't really notice Sally's vote when I voted) for the Seer that was are automatically evil? Did all of you see that he was the Seer? Because I didn't. I was annoyed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lari and Sally would have to have been in cahoots and try to save Spm their mate in crime for that scenario to be true... or then one of them (or both?) just wished to lay low and make a safe and probably nonsequiential lynch?

This is based on our votes? Really? First of all, why would the wolves do that anyway? There are four wolves right? Kill one there is still three. Saving one would be pointless from their perspective.

And fine, I'm going to be defensive but let's take a look at the "hey Sally and Lari both were not really there and voted for Hakon...THEY MUST BE EVIL" people(note post numbers included):

Starts with a slight mention by Pitch in 179, where he says we unnerve him, SPM adds in 186, Brinn is annoyed with us in the next post because we voted for him because we thought he was annoying, interesting to note, moves to Inzil, who really seems to jump on the whole "wow we really need to look at them" and I apparently look worst than Sally. Why is that Inzil? Because I voted second?

Nog, how did I got from, in post 203, a"non-interested ordos or people with RL hindrances"(quote also about Lottie) to evil?

And now I see Lottie jumping on.

Honestly I don't like how much Inzil pushes this whole thing. Actually, I don't like Nog either for that matter. Brinn's comment also caught my eye.

[Nienna]

Greenie--> Sally
McCaber--> Nog
Roa--> Greenie
Nog--> Greenie
Pitchwife--> Fea
SPM--> Greenie (3)
Zil--> Fea (2)
Lottie--> McCaber

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Also why are we all assuming he dreamed of Boro? Its an easy guess, but its not known. For all we know he dreamed of Fea or Sally(other good dream choices).

Because he listed them as possible Bears. They are not possible Bears. Had he dreamed them, he would have known this.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

How do you suppose we do that? It's Day 1. What, we analyze people's greeting posts? "Oh Nog said Hi, but Sally said Hey THAT MEANS THEY ARE WOLVES". While I would love a productive Day 1, most of the time when a baddie is lynched on Day 1, unless a Seer reveals, it is luck. Looking for slip ups on Day 1, fine, but how often do wolves really leave traces that you can still till one of them is killed?

Oh, but they do, quite often. True, an innocent is more often lynched on Day One, but then the wolves often give themselves away by their Day One voting.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

If we all followed your rules we may get a wolf, or in future games wolves would speak up more and become more intelligent. Then how would you vote?

Mmmn. How would we we vote if everyone openly votes at random on Day One, thereby leaving no traces whatever, which seems to be your plan? You said the exact same thing last game, too.

And talking of paranoia... why are you acting as though there's a huge bandwagon against you, Lari? No-one's voted for you. No-one's even talking about voting for you, last time I checked.

EDIT:X'd with Nienna and Brinn.

[Brinniel]

Lari, I never did say I suspected you; I simply suggested that I was wary of your vote. Because I still don't think it was justified. But I think you're overreacting a bit. So people are suspicious of your voting. You have every right to defend yourself, but there's really no need to get upset. It's not like people are voting you left and right. Anyway, your recent posts give me the impression that you're more likely a frustrated innocent than anything else.

Originally Posted by Lari

Also why are we all assuming he dreamed of Boro? Its an easy guess, but its not known. For all we know he dreamed of Fea or Sally(other good dream choices).

It's pretty well assumed because Boro was the only one Hakon hinted towards. No, we can't know it for sure, but if it were someone else, there's no way for us to tell. Anyway, Boro's already dead, so it doesn't really make much of a difference.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

And fine, I'm going to be defensive but let's take a look at the "hey Sally and Lari both were not really there and voted for Hakon...THEY MUST BE EVIL" people(note post numbers included):

Starts with a slight mention by Pitch in 179, where he says we unnerve him, SPM adds in 186, Brinn is annoyed with us in the next post because we voted for him because we thought he was annoying, interesting to note, moves to Inzil, who really seems to jump on the whole "wow we really need to look at them" and I apparently look worst than Sally. Why is that Inzil? Because I voted second?

I can understand your wanting to give an explanation, but aren't you overdoing it a bit? Have you received any votes yet?
I didn't like the way you and Sally suddenly appeared and quickly voted Hakon, using suspicions as voiced by other players. That's all. And it seemed you looked a little more off than Sally because you came in so closely behind her, echoing her for part of your reason, then adding the bit about Hakon's insinuating the mods would lie, which was also said by someone else previously.

x/d with Brinn, Nerwen, and Lottie

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's pretty well assumed because Boro was the only one Hakon hinted towards. No, we can't know it for sure, but if it were someone else, there's no way for us to tell. Anyway, Boro's already dead, so it doesn't really make much of a difference.

Really? Cause here are his posts that might point to things.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

Originally Posted by Hakon

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

He talks about the bear twice and mentions, I guess in a way, a lay out of possible dreams in a sequence he would go in. So lets assume that. That means his first dream was Fea not Boro. That he was going to dream of Boro last Night.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

And now I see Lottie jumping on.

Jumping on what? I said I looked forward to your "real" post. How is that jumping on a Lari bandwagon? Or what else were you talking about?

EDIT: xed with Nerwen