TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that until the last Night, we never discussed working with the lovers. We did go back and forth over killing them, though.

On the very last Night, it wasn't so much discussed as the plan was drawn up for me to make the offer and the others to stay hidden till the end, and everyone else agreeing with it. There was never a "Should we or shouldn't we?" moment. Which made Fea's posts about our conversations very funny.

[Morsul the Dark]

Try not to get confused by the rules as someone else reads them. Also apparently looking at what other people say is suspicious...

Also to Fea you're right my math was wrond it wasn't a 1/272 chance of rewolfing in reality the Correct math is 3/68 less than 4% and apparently the probability was right though had he not acted suspicious in my opinion. so I got Two votes automatically....

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm planning a coup with you
That’s all we ever do
That’s all we ever dream
We’ll gamble everything

Meet me at the werewolf thread
See there o’er Night who’s dead
PMs typed by scheming hands
See the Lovers make their plans

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
All through the Day

I’m sending my thoughts to you
About yesterDay's clues
Let’s play the game our way
See if we can seize the Day

I could have hidden from view
See the lynch mob come for you
But we knew that it was time
Time to put it all on the line

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
All through the Day

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
To seize the Day

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
To end of play

For any who may not be familiar with the song that this is based on, it's For Lovers by Wolfman Pete (I kid you not ) featuring Pete Docherty, and its a lovely song.

[The Saucepan Man]

Wow! What a game! Very stressful, but very enjoyable. So thanks to everyone, especially the Moddesses and most especially my wonderful partner in crime, Fea.

Originally Posted by Nog

We have actually anticipated this moment to be wolves together for years - Roa and me - and were ready to stage a real show as the probability of the seer dreaming at least one of us early on was quite big. But then we got lucky and there was no need for it...

I think that you were helped here to an extent by Hakon's meta-reasoning. It looks like he was looking for those who Mira and Nienna might make Wolves and you two didn't figure on his list.

Funny how meta-reasoning works. Despite being fully aware that the roles were assigned randomly, my mind refused to accept the notion that Roa and Nog could be Wolves together.

Originally Posted by Boro

Werebear rule #214: Do not declare war with the wolves on Day 1.

Well, I agreed with your reasoning (although it was, of course, in our interests for Wolves and Bear to be at each others' throats from the outset). But, to be fair, you were not helped by Hakon here. I would be interested to hear from him whether he did dream of you. But, even if not, I presume that the Wolves thought that he did. Is that right Wolves?

Originally Posted by Roa

I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that until the last Night, we never discussed working with the lovers. We did go back and forth over killing them, though.

I'd be interested to hear why you didn't kill us, then. Was it purely the threat of our revenge kill, or did you want to preserve the option of teaming up with us? I did wonder when I saw that sally was not a Wolf whether you might decide to kill one of us that Night and take your chances. I also thought that, if Nog was a Wolf, he might be reluctant to do a deal, thinking it unsporting.

The origin of our strategy is fairly simple. We had a revenge kill, but there was no value to us in using it since, by that stage, we would have lost. It's value to us, therefore, was in its deterrent effect. But the only way to bring that to bear was to reveal. Of course, we could not do so while the Bear was around (since we might both be killed at Night and we could not win with the Bear anyway) and nor were we well advised to do so while the Village might consider lynching one of us. In any event, by the time that this option became open to us, we had little choice but to take it, since Fea would most probably otherwise have been lynched.

And Wolves, my assertion that we were confident in hitting a Wolf with our revenge kill was largely bluff (as you may have suspected):

Roa - You fooled me with what looked like genuine reactions twice - first when you backed off after suspecting me so strongly on Day 1 and then again with your reaction to our reveal, which I thought totally genuine. Was that all acting, or was there an element of frustration there? Later, I became increasingly convinced of your Wolfishness, particularly when Fea pointed out to me that the Wolves had a great opportunity to get you lynched on Day 3 and failed to take it.

Nog - I did suspect you in the first Day or so, because I thought you unusually aggressive. I didn't go against you, because we were actually looking to get innocents lynched in the first few Days. After our reveal, though, I started to become increasingly convinced of your innocence. Your reactions looked genuine to me and your (stated) analyses were along the lines that I was thinking (but keeping to myself). There was also an element of meta-reasoning here, as mentioned above.

Brinniel - You played a classic Wolf game perfectly. Relatively quiet, but vocal enough and with sufficient analysis to avoid too much suspicion. You were always in my thougts as a possible Wolf, but there were always others more prominent in my suspicions. Also, you and Nog played the Wolf-on-Wolf votes on McCaber perfectly, and that threw me off your trail a bit.

McCaber - I actually thought that you were one of those innocents that inevitably attract suspicion early in the game for acting inadvertently suspiciously. For that reason, I was quite happy to see you lynched, as we would then have got to the end game much quicker. On reflection, though, it was perhaps in our interests that the Wolves were at least one down by the time it came to conducting the negotiations.

Originally Posted by Fea

Also, Mira at least expressed interest in reading the Lover PMs. Sauce has them on file. I'm sure he'll oblige once he's awake and around.

I do, but they are at home, so that will have to wait. There are about 20 pages worth of PMs, but I can edit them down if anyone is interested.

Originally Posted by Inzil

As good as our lupine crew was, the not-so-innocent lovers made things much easier on them, to be sure. I like to think that in an extremity of savage hunger, the wolves devoured them in the end.

Well, we will have to wait for the narrative. But I always imagined that they would. As I said before, I saw the Lovers as not caring whether they lived or died as long as they were together.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mira and I talked about what happened to the Lovers post-game. If she goes with it, you'll see.

Now back to grandma's! (I'm clearly not as evil in RL as I let everyone think I am.)

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Mira and I talked about what happened to the Lovers post-game. If she goes with it, you'll see.

Now back to grandma's! (I'm clearly not as evil in RL as I let everyone think I am.)

Oh it'll happen. I just need the inspiration to write the narrations. This whole school thing is really interfering.

Great game everyone! Especially the wolfsies and luuuurvly lovers! But grrrr wolfsies for killing off Borobear so early. I was so looking forward to the havoc he was going to wreck.

Still waiting on those cookies, sally dear.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

But grrrr wolfsies for killing off Borobear so early. I was so looking forward to the havoc he was going to wreck.

Don't be too bothered, after all it just proves werebear rules #1 thru #642 (excluding #214 and #495):

Mira's lack of strategy is supremely better than Borangutan's attempt to come in with a plan for the werebear.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Funny how meta-reasoning works. Despite being fully aware that the roles were assigned randomly, my mind refused to accept the notion that Roa and Nog could be Wolves together.

I really thought the fact that we weren't at each others' throats would really tip everyone off.

Well, I agreed with your reasoning (although it was, of course, in our interests for Wolves and Bear to be at each others' throats from the outset). But, to be fair, you were not helped by Hakon here. I would be interested to hear from him whether he did dream of you. But, even if not, I presume that the Wolves thought that he did. Is that right Wolves?

Actually, Boromir was a lucky kill for us. We just wanted to get rid of a vocal and strong player, and lay false trails along the way. We had no inkling that Boromir was the bear. I was pulling for you, BTW.

I'd be interested to hear why you didn't kill us, then. Was it purely the threat of our revenge kill, or did you want to preserve the option of teaming up with us? I did wonder when I saw that sally was not a Wolf whether you might decide to kill one of us that Night and take your chances. I also thought that, if Nog was a Wolf, he might be reluctant to do a deal, thinking it unsporting.

The unsporting thing was why we didn't kill you on Night 2. And as I said, there really wasn't a back and forth about working with you. Really, the reason we didn't kill you was the odds. We had better odds with you alive than with you dead.

Roa - You fooled me with what looked like genuine reactions twice - first when you backed off after suspecting me so strongly on Day 1 and then again with your reaction to our reveal, which I thought totally genuine. Was that all acting, or was there an element of frustration there? Later, I became increasingly convinced of your Wolfishness, particularly when Fea pointed out to me that the Wolves had a great opportunity to get you lynched on Day 3 and failed to take it.

Had I been an innocent, the frustration would have been real. As a wolf, however, I was only intrigued to see how it played out. I admit, I hoped that more people would be on the "Yeah, let's lynch Fea!" idea.

Though I assure you, if we had one more Nightly kill, it would have been one of you.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Actually, Boromir was a lucky kill for us. We just wanted to get rid of a vocal and strong player, and lay false trails along the way. We had no inkling that Boromir was the bear. I was pulling for you, BTW.

That's refreshing to hear, I thought I was just too darned obvious. Which was why I killed Hakon too, I didn't know whether he dreamed of me or not, protecting myself did not enter into my head. It just looked like he was playing the seer in a similar way to what I would. That is talking about a plan for the seer, but since he was the seer he was describing his own plan. Like what I wad attempting as the bear, lengthily describing what the bear should do, and try to do it. Although, my ultimate plan was to lynch the wolves and go for gifted at night, I figured this would keep the innocent village off my case for a while, but also start to eliminate wolves.

Which leads me to werebear rule #495: do not pave a nice road to wolf victory by lynching the hunter and killing the seer.

Absolutely brilliant strategy Sauce and Fea, you (like me) had to think about your own survival whether it be with the wolves or the village. And you put yourself in the perfect spot with all the power, the village couldn't lynch you and who cares if you gave the wolves a headache about whether to just kill you or not.

Well done wolf-team, but you may have under-estimated the threat, Nienna can probably remember my wolf-guesses after my death and I wasn't anywhere close. The only baddie I was came close to guessing was Greenie. I guess I could include Sauce, since he turned out to be a rotten villain too.

Super game Mira and Nienna, thanks for getting me to join, I can't believe I was actually dragging my feet, because I would hate myself for at least an hour if I missed out.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

I was pulling for you, BTW.

Well, it would have completely changed the game, had you had your way. I was hoping that I had attracted enough suspicion on Day 1 (thanks largely to you, funnily enough) for the Wolves to leave me alone. Also, Fea and I were both mentioned as possible Cobblers at various times, which we thought might be to our benefit. In that regard, we were quite annoyed when Greenie turned out to be the Cobbler.

Originally Posted by Roa

We had better odds with you alive than with you dead.

Why? Because of the revenge kill? Or because you thought that our votes more likely to favour you than the innocents? Because, as known non-Wolves, our continued presence increased the chances of innocents voting for a Wolf.

I am interested, because I was really worried that you would attack one of us at Night and go for the sole victory. As a Wolf, I would have been sorely tempted to.

[Hakon]

I never did dream of Boro. I dreamed of Sally the first night and Pitchwife the second night. I originally planned of dreaming Pitch the first night and SPM the second night and Boro the third night but things shifted. I had SPM pegged for the ranger around the time I died and Boro pegged for either the cobbler or a wolf. I would like to apologize for being such a horrible seer. I clearly make a much better ranger.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I admit, I hoped that more people would be on the "Yeah, let's lynch Fea!" idea.

I understand, and I am not in the least bit offended.

I would have lynched me too.

And I would like to second Pitch on congratulating Zil and Nerwen for showing the world how to lose gracefully (and with brilliant parody).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

And I would like to second Pitch on congratulating Zil and Nerwen for showing the world how to lose gracefully (and with brilliant parody).

I'm amused and honoured to have made it into your sig.