TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[The Saucepan Man]

More love-struck missives ...

Originally Posted by SpM

More Wolf spotting ...

Dearest Fee Fee

I must admit that McCaber’s Wolfishness came as somewhat of a surprise to me. Looking back on it, I can see why the Wolves might have wanted to sacrifice him. It does make me wonder, however, whether we were wrong about Roa and the Wolves chose to sacrifice McCaber instead of her.

Her annoyance yesterDay looked genuine at the time. But, it’s possible that it was put on and that she voted for you to test whether there might be more general support for doing so. After all, the Wolves’ best bet for a sole victory would have been to get one of us lynched during the Day and kill the other at Night since that would remove two known innocents and even possibly avoid our revenge kill (it’s not clear whether we get that at Night). Then, when she saw that it didn’t work, she came on toDay all apologetic. Notably, it’s the second time in the game that she’s changed tack (her change of approach to me from Day 1 to Day 2).

It’s difficult to tell as she is hot headed and I can quite believe that our fun and games yesterDay would have wound her up. On the other hand, I am not at all sure that we can rely on her being innocent now.

Clearly at least one Wolf voted for McCaber and quite possibly two. It may be that all three voted for him, although I regard this as less likely, as it would surely have required some kind of planning and their main plan at the start of yesterDay would have been to get you lynched. So I would think that any Wolf votes for McCaber would have come later in the Day, when they saw that he was likely to get lynched in any event. If so, that points to Inzil, Nerwen and/or Brinn. Indeed, a Wolf pack of two of those and Roa would make quite a lot of sense, in light of the voting record.

Clearly, I am now less convinced of the Wolfishness of Nog and Loslote.

Sorry that I can’t be more certain, but McWolf’s lynching has rather thrown me.

Love etc.

~Saucikins~

Originally Posted by Fea

Re: More Wolf spotting ...

It didn't come as a surprise to me, because as you'll remember, I mentioned a few Days ago that there was something about him that was ringing alarm bells.

What did surprise me was how anti-climactic the end of Day was.

Why on earth wouldn't the pack vote to kill of Roa?

They clearly had our contribution, they had plenty of time to do it.

She's a suspected innocent by just about everybody, and she's oh so helpful to the village. Clearly it should have been an easy choice: once I'm no longer an option and Cabbie's on the chopping block, make a quick case against somebody else (or simply be transparent).

There are only two reasons why they didn't kill Roa instead of Cabbie: she's the pack leader or the wolves want the village to think she is. But the problem with the second idea is when they would have had time to discuss it, since we threw an obvious wrench in the Day with our little stunt.

I think they had to choose the lesser of two evils and went with the Cabbie lynch to buy themselves time to discuss things further.

Well after all the time and effort I put into antagonizing her (nothing personal, she was just the most outspoken 'innocent.' I'd have just as methodically irritated anybody else in her position if the opportunity had arisen) I'd have been shocked if she didn't snap.

Actually, I don't know either. I know that suicide is an option (I asked), so that wasn't just me talking smack.

Ah, this game... It's actually some of the most fun I've ever had playing. I thank you for that. You're a wonderful conspirator.

Originally Posted by SpM

Re: More Wolf spotting ...

The only think that I can think of is that it would have looked bad for them if she is innocent. But I agree. She was generally suspected for her reaction at our reveal, so they could easily have talked their way out of it. I am increasingly of the view that Roa is a Wolf, together with two of Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn. Sally, I think, is their chosen innocent 'fall guy' du jour (although I thought that yesterDay about McCaber, so what do I know).

And didn't I tell you that Noggie would accuse us of playing unsportingly. If he is a Wolf, then I doubt that the pack will make a deal with us. But I now think it much more likely that he is innocent. His posts bemoaning our approach look genuine to me. What's more, his analysis of who might be Wolves is pretty much in line with the way that I have been thinking toDay.

Now, who should we be thinking about voting for toDay? On reflection, I am starting to think that it doesn't really matter to us whether an innocent or a Wolf is lynched. If an innocent is lynched, then we can seal the game with the Wolves toMorrow (provided that they play along). But, if a Wolf is lynched, then it makes it even less likely that they will attack one of us toNight, as they will be more worried about our revenge kill. Indeed, on that basis, it might be even better for us if a Wolf is lynched.

I have work in the morning, so I will have to leave about 4 hours before the deadline - 3 hours at the very latest. But then again, for the reasons stated above, I am not too bothered about who is lynched.

The feeling is entirely mutual, I assure you.

Love etc

~SpLB~

Originally Posted by Fea

Re: More Wolf spotting ...

But at this point in the game, who cares? Either we were on their side and they had it made, or they could lie the next day with, "Oh, oops, our bad. Roa really seemed evil. Oh, we're in so much trouble as a village! Oh no..."

Saw it coming a mile away. That's okay. As I said: I warned them early that the Lovers might not have their best interest at heart, that they weren't obligated by the rules to side with the village, and they blithely ignored the warning.

I wonder if the wolves would step up if we voted for one of them? Maybe not. It would depend on whether or not they think we're bluffing on the side of the village.

I have to go paint my grandma's living room in the morning. Well, I say 'have to' but I did volunteer to do it... I'd hate for her to try ripping down wall paper and climbing ladders on her own, and my aunts are all equally likely to injure themselves with renovation. So I'll be around until DL, but barely.

Originally Posted by SpM

More Wolf spotting ...

Yes, good point.

Indeed. I meant to make that very point to the Nogsulk, but it slipped my mind.

No, I don't think that they would. My main concern is that they may take it a as declaration of hostilities. Then again, as I said, a lynched Wolf may actually help us to sleep safer toNight.

I reckon Inzil's a Wolf, with that vote for sally.

Love etc

Originally Posted by SpM

Glad tidings

Sally's part-reveal and Inzil's reveal in response have benefitted us greatly, I think. I suspect that Inzil is the Ranger. If a Wolf, he had little reason to make a Ranger claim at that point. Assuming that he is, the Wolves have a better target than us toNight.

If, by any chance, sally is the Ranger then her likely lynching toDay will uncover Inzil as a Wolf and the pack is going to be very reluctant to risk triggering our revenge kill.

All good stuff. I like to think a played a little part in prompting Inzil's reveal.

I must go now, so I'll stick with my vote for Roa. Obviously, you should vote as you see fit, but the lynching of sally (which looks the most likely outcome now) would probably not be a bad thing for us, either way.

Good luck and I hope to see you again when the sun next rises.

Love etc

~Sauce~

Originally Posted by Fea

Re: Glad tidings

Well, they can't both be, so either way the wolves have someone nice to go after.

I agree. It's very fun to think such things.

If not, we'll probably be together again before the sun next sets.

[The Saucepan Man]

And finally ...

Originally Posted by Fea

Ha!

I knew it!

I KNEW Roa was evil!

I just couldn't prove it (because I was being lazy, and also because it didn't really matter who was who as long as we didn't die, so why waste time analyzing?).

But I feel quite vindicated in that she's all nice and wolfy.

Originally Posted by SpM

Re: Ha!

Yes, I was becoming increasingly convinced of her Wolfishness, although she did fool me for a while with that reaction to our reveal. Nogrod is the surprise to me. He looked evil at the start because he seemed different, more aggressive, than I remember. But he had looked pretty reasonable and genuine in the last few Days.

There is, I suppose, still a chance that Roa's a bluffing Innocent, although admittedly it's a pretty remote one as it would require the Wolves to play along.

Perhaps it's just paranoia on my part, but I am slightly concened that the Wolves might change their votes at the end of the Day and eliminate one of us. I don't know whether we get our revenge kill in those circumstances, but will check. But, just in case, will you be around at the end of the Day to switch to Roa, if necessary? I won't be, but have voted Roa anyway.

Love etc

~Sauce~

Originally Posted by Fea

Re: Ha!

I'll be around.

Originally Posted by SpM

Re: Ha!

I'm being very cautious here, but do you mind retracting your vote and then re-voting for Inzil? That way, the remaining Wolves should feel safe enough to switch to Inzil.

Btw, I think that Nerwen and Brinn are the remaining Wolves.

Love etc

So, have I earned my nickname now ...?

[Inziladun]

As it happens, I never protected SPM or Fea, a fact that gladdens my heart. If the wolves had wanted you two, I'd intended to let them have you.

[Morsul the Dark]

If we both vote for Morsul and he is lynched and turns out to be a Wolf, that would be good. He probably isn't, though. Merely a n00b.

That's a bit strong, I still thought SPAM was pushing the friendly wolf thing on purpose I mean it confused a lot of people. And Like I said after the game end the Real chance was 3 out of 68 so while my initial math was wrong... I corrected it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

That's a bit strong, I still thought SPAM was pushing the friendly wolf thing on purpose I mean it confused a lot of people. And Like I said after the game end the Real chance was 3 out of 68 so while my initial math was wrong... I corrected it.

I was referring to your n00b-ness in Werewolf terms. Werewolf newbies are often preyed upon by Wolves for the least little thing and I suspected that was what was happening here. In fact, it was the reason that I voted for you. It was an easy vote that didn't require too much explanation. I was suprised when it turned out that there was not one Wolf in your bandwaggon.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by SPAM

Perhaps it's just paranoia on my part, but I am slightly concened that the Wolves might change their votes at the end of the Day and eliminate one of us.

Originally Posted by SPAM

Btw, I think that Nerwen and Brinn are the remaining Wolves.

Just for the record, I spent the last Day trying to look like a wolf who was toying with the idea of double-crossing the Lovers. It was the only thing I could think of that had even a chance of working... not that it had much, but it was worth a try.