WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Our discussion on that day has been far from a discussion of professional investigators. Despite the efforts of all of us to focus on our most immediate concern, our discussion kept changing forms. At first it often slipped into an academic debate. It could be seen that we were scientists - stranded and in a dire situation, but scientists nevertheless. Later however, the process thrust us into a heated dispute.

In the end the majority seemed convinced that it was our meteorologist who was responsible, but our decision was far from unambiguous. There was one unused compartment on the ship where we locked him, despite his protests. It was an act of fear which even further undermined our morale. However, at least some of us seemed hopeful enough, being convinced that we have caught the culprit. The more realistic were reminding us that there was nothing to celebrate as our communication with the outer world was still severed and our ship as much trapped as before the incident. Neither of those two groups, though, could have foreseen the full scale of horror that was to break out in this prison of ice.

By 10 AM of the following day we have split into two groups again, some staying on the ship and trying to finish what our poor lead enginer had started, some taking a trip on feet further on, towards the sole landmark nearby: the rumoured unknown island or ice floe which some have spotted the day before. As the sky lightened, we could see its shape rising against the southern sky. It was hardly an hour's walk from our place, and both of our polar biology experts encouraged us to go there. There was but a slight hope of being able to see another mark of civilation from up there, but no doubt a psychological effect also played its part. Our ship was too small for everyone to take part in the repairs, not to mention that many of us had no real experience in such matters whatsoever. Such ones would appreciate the chance to move and do something which seemed at least partially sensible. We didn't know how long we will be forced yet to stay on the ship, yet we feared that it might be too long.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Inziladun - meteorologist
Mnemosyne - field medic
Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Pitchwife - marine biologist
Nienna - navigator
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Roa - survival guide
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company
tromkehra - cook/bartender

LYNCHES:

would-be Day 1 lynchee: Inziladun

The team made the decision not to cause death on the first Day. Nobody is lynched toDay. There will also be no Night kill among the players. See this post on the admin thread for more details.

Night 2 begins. Werewolves, you may start PMing each other, but no Night kill is going to take place this time. Ranger and Hunter may start PMing too. No posting on this thread again until the next Day.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The landmark was indeed not very far from the place where our trapped ship was now stationed. Soon we discovered that it was indeed an island, a piece of barren rock sticking out of the masses of ice, only barely covered with snow. It was the young glaciologist who remarked that in this latitude it is common for land masses to be covered with snow all year, yet recently, periods have been observed when even in such places there came occassional thaws. We did not realise yet back then what importance this fact will have for us in the very following days. But finally there was something to occupy our scientific minds with, finally after what seemed like ages a normal discussion arose. Where were we? We pitied the loss of our equipment, as we could not have been sure which particular island we are on. There were not many, not even small islands in these parts, yet no one of us has been to these particular parts of the Arctic Ocean, and we spent a lot of time arguing over the maps. At last, we decided to return to the ship.

As much as our minds have been distracted from the horrors which have occured aboard before, we could not have escaped them once we have returned. After barely a few hours of peaceful sleep, furious barking and growling could be heard from the compartments where our huskys have been stationed. Awakened by the hideous sound we all rushed to the place. The door of the first of the two rooms containing our dogs was ajar and, by the time the first of us have arrived, the sounds inside have stopped. To our horror, even from the outside we could see red stains on the floor. At last our survival guide along with the original sled-dog handler picked the courage to step in. When they emerged, they looked pale and sick; our survival guide was breathing deeply and the other man just shook his head and said: "Somebody has butchered them all."

We were all shaken. So was this another attempt to cripple our efforts to get out of here? "The meteorologist!" somebody cried, and we rushed to the compartment only to find it safely locked from the outside just as we have left it. There was no way the man would have done it, unless somebody opened the door for him and then locked him in again - yet all of us have been at the place of slaughter together. A culprit could have managed to slip among us unnoticed, but he would not have had the time to walk all the way to the other side of the ship, lock the meteorologist inside and come back again without being noticed. Pressurized by the part of our company which was against incriminating him in the first place, we released our meteorologist. As far as the butchering of our sled-dogs was concerned, he must have been innocent - unless he had an accomplice, a thought already some started to voice.

But who would do something like that? And why? What would anybody get from leaving us in this prison of ice? We found it far more reasonable to think that we are looking at the work of a dangerous madman - yet the truth, as we were to learn soon, was far more hideous.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Inziladun - meteorologist
Mnemosyne - field medic
Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Pitchwife - marine biologist
Nienna - navigator
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Roa - survival guide - innocent (information added 1:45h after DL - see the admin thread)
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company
tromkehra - cook/bartender

LYNCHES:

would-be Day 1 lynchee: Inziladun

Day 2 begins. Werewolves, Hunter and Ranger, stop PMing. Everyone, you may start posting here and voting for whom to lynch toDay.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I think it’s my time to come into the open then.

For those of you who don’t know it, let it be said we have a colourful past in werewolfing, Roa and I. It was Roa’s second and my first game when we first met and I was the seer who dreamt of her being a wolf on the first Night and after a full Day of single-minded pursuit by me - trying to find any possible slip and ranting on it (that newbie me!) we finally lynched her (and I was killed the next Night). After that we have played the dog and cat thing almost every game – even if to speak the truth we have been able to collaborate a few times as well.

But that’s a kind if special thing for me at least – even if I’m losing it in numbers (just remembered the first Dueling Wizards…).

But to the issue then.

I thought of Roa’s “mistake” on the number of wolves as a bluff to begin with as I couldn’t believe she would honestly miss it – whatever she much later said about her last game, or the quite clumsy defence of saying “that would be too obvious”!!! One can also say one is innocent...

But then I saw Roa jumping on Boro (and yes dear Roa, I saw you jumping, whatever you say about just disagreeing and not suspecting him – therefore I said it was not of the essence what you said you were doing.). I thought she was really trying to make Boro look bad on purpose whilst I found Boro’s remarks totally reasonable (heh, later she said it would be a trophy for me as a wolf to get an innocent loudmouth aka. her to lynch... but aren't we too similar in here; you tried the same with Boro?).

And lay and behold, it seemed to work: Nerwen followed suite in the questioning making Boro the primary object of discussions and later a few people, especially Bes, took your lead and started openly talking about Boro being suspicious.

Perfect wolvery to my eyes. But how to get more evidence for or against from the most reasonable player there is? So how to get Roa to react in a way that would reveal her alignment? I knew it wouldn’t be easy and no normal suspicion would do (I’ve learned that much during the years).


Suddenly I got the idea I thought was really great. So why not press her like “for the old times sake” and pose as someone who actually knew she was a wolf (like I was back then in our first meeting) and look how she would react to a possible “flashback from the past”? So if she was a wolf indeed, she would have to relive that first game and that might just bring her off her guard…


And before going into Roa's posts after my suspicions of her, let me just point to this as I must still note that Roa’s reaction to Boro’s post is overwhelmingly overdone and – I’d like to say - consciously misinterpreted. Just compare these.

Originally Posted by Boro

And how many times have we lynched gifteds because they need to look just as suspicious as wolves, but not too suspicious (making them look to us even more suspicious than the suspicious wolves) so the wolves don't kill them?

On the flip side, how many times do the reasonable, agreeable ones (myself often included in this, I admit) get free passes early, for being just that...reasonable and agreeable?

Originally Posted by Roa

Seriously, if we start lynching people because they make sense, I'm quitting. Of course wolves can make sense. Of course innocents could lack sense. But saying we should lynch someone because they make sense is utterly ridiculous, and exactly what the wolves would want. They want the strong rational players that aren't drawing suspicion out of the way, because an innocent who doesn't draw suspicion is one less person to get lynched in place of a wolf. What you're suggesting basically gives the wolves a lot more places to hide, and little to fear in watching their step. It is because the wolves have to pretend that we can catch them. Targeting the reasonable means that the wolves don't have to be so careful. Your whole line of reasoning is flawed, and more than that, helps the wolves.

"Roalysis" to come in a moment...

[Macalaure]

So it's basically another Day1 again? I think we should annoy Roa and start in-character posting all over again!

Ok, of course it's not a perfect Day1. While we still have zero knowledge, we already have amassed plenty of antagonism and enmity yesterDay to make for an entertaining Day.


Even though we have no knowledge of roles, the votes deserve analysing. It's of debatable use, but we don't have any better.

Morsul -> Mac (well-reasoned vote, considering how early it was)
Roa -> Nogrod (a bit knee-jerk, if you ask me. not as well-considered as I would expect it from Roa)
Brinn -> Nerwen (she mentions Nerwen's jumping on Roa's attack on Boro, something I found suspicious, too, so I'm not completely objective here)
Mnemo -> Inzil (she mentioned him and Pitch before her vote, but her reasoning is vague at best)
Green -> Mnemo (has been after her consistently, reasons seem valid)
Eomer -> Mnemo(2) (nothing mentionworthy about this vote. seems alright)
Bes -> Mac(2) (vote out of nowhere. cites Inzil's points against me as reason. not thrilled, especially since Inzil's points were already drawing on Pitch's points)
Pitch -> Mac(3) (he suspected me before, but the vote post bugs me - first he pretty much throws every accusation he can think of at me, and then he adds that it's more of a vibe thing. makes little sense in this combination and looks more like an attempt to fuel a bandwaggon)
Lommy -> Mnemo(3) (has been quite consistent, but not much in terms of reasoning)
Sally -> Roa (a throwaway. Sally hasn't provided much to analyse)
Shasta -> Inzil(2) (bites on the alternative option I tried to push. I'd like to know why he was so sure about the innocence of Mnemo and me)
Nienna -> Inzil(3) (ditto)
Nogrod -> Roa(2) (motivated by Sally's vote, I suppose. the vote alone is not suspicious)
Mac -> Inzil(4) (I was pretty afraid to cross with Inzil's expectable vote for me, I can tell you)
Inzil -> Mac(4) (self-preservation. was suspicious of me, but expressed regret that we always seem to clash. I share that regret... )
Nerwen -> Mac(5) (didn't count, but that doesn't matter. she suspected me before and does this kind of sniping frequently, but there are no posts in between "back, reading" (40 mins before deadline) and her vote. dissatisfying)

did not vote: Boro, Wilwa, trom, Lottie

[Mnemosyne]

YesterDusk was... interesting.

But this was a very good and a very novel idea, because now that our votes are actually going to count we have some concrete information to go after...

well, the votes at least.

And because yesterDusk was so interesting we actually have a lot more material to go off of instead of if there had been a bandwagon. A lot of players, it appears, felt forced to make some tough choices.

Which is why I've decided that I'm not going to vote to try to save people anymore, much less vote "politically." And I encourage others to follow suit. Granted, we all had little information to go off of yesterday, and we have little more information to go off of today. But when everyone's doing this sort of thing it creates divisions within the crew, divisions that wolves will be all too happy to exploit.

YesterDay I had to vote early off no more information than gut feelings, and now that I've had the space of a day to think about it I'd like to actually analyze what I think is setting those feelings off. Feelings, after all, can be really misleading--especially mine (I can think of several other players who've managed to make inspired votes by intuition!).

But that'll be a while later.

Something I think you should all know at the moment about me (and this is NOT an excuse!) is that every single Day this week the end of the day is sandwiched in between classes where my attention has to be elsewhere. I can't quite achieve the level of focus that I'd like, the way I've been able to in previous games when the deadline's been easier for me. So especially as the game gets rolling and we get more information I might be voting much earlier in the Day, when I have swaths of free time to get my thoughts and analytical powers in focus.

But I do want to take a deeper look at Inziladun and Pitchwife toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Love the idea and the execution thereof, Legate!

My first thought was that it probably benefits the expedition as it gives us more info to work with, but I shouldn't think clever wolves will let it hinder them. What it does do is allow those who had to vote early further opportunities to make a good contribution, and also allocates to them the responsibility to use this and not bank on a casual Day One vote.

Not that I think there were too many casual votes but there often are in these games!

Now, I want to hear from the people who didn't really show up yesterday!

[Inziladun]

Toward the end of YesterDay I was desperately looking around, trying to find someone who looked worse than Mac. Every time we've played together we've tended to focus on one another for some reason. As the votes for me mounted, I did what I could to save myself. Mac's reactions as it looked as though it would be him to go actually make him look a bit better to me toDay.
I possibly should have mentioned this already, but each weekDay the DL arrives in the middle of my work day, so my activity in the hours leading up to it may be sporadic. That said, I'm still trying to read and ruminate as much as possible.
I'm glad we have this 'do over'. More posts to look at, and more appearances from the submarines (hopefully).
My issue with Mac had mostly to do with what I saw as an exaggeration of my part in the Boro-versy. Honestly, what Boro said wasn't a terribly big deal to me, and Mac seemed to be saying I was jumping on Boro and trying to make him look bad. I hardly responded to Boro at all, and I felt it was Mac who was trying to blow that up into a case against me.

[Pitchwife]

Nog, I found that act you pulled yesterDay extremely puzzling, but with the explanation you've given now, it kinda makes sense. As for your actual case against Roa, I've got to mull it over - it'll be interesting to see how she reacts now, anyway.

Originally Posted by Boro

Can we assume that based on people believing there would be an actual lynch that neither Inzil nor Mac are gifted?

Either I don't get that, or it's non sequitur. People wouldn't have voted to lynch either in earnest if they were gifted? Wolves would certainly have done it. And innocents have done it before by mistake, as was discussed at some length yesterDay (by yourself, among others) - which discussion should have reminded us to be more careful not to make the same mistake again, but it's no guarantee. So I don't see how we can assume anything about Zil's and Mac's roles, pro or con, based on the votes for them.

Originally Posted by Mac

first he pretty much throws every accusation he can think of at me, and then he adds that it's more of a vibe thing. makes little sense in this combination

I see why you think there's a contradiction here, but there actually isn't - only perhaps poor wording. What I meant is, I wasn't sure the things I found suspicious against you added up to a logical case, but they sort of resonated with each other to create a vibe, which was the only thing I could base a vote on at the time.
That said, I'd really like to hear some reasons for your changing opinions about Zil that go beyond seems and feels. I totally didn't see where you came from yesterDay, and I don't now. (The same to Mnemo, by the way!)

(x-ed with Boro and Zil)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have to announce that Roa unfortunately had to withdraw from the game (for RL reasons, she just cannot afford to play now). I can no longer put that into toDay's narration, but I will make her leave on the following Day. In any case, she won't be participating anymore toDay so you can leave her out also of your Wolf-hunting. For the record, she was an innocent ordinary member of the expedition.

I will put a short note of her role into the Night 2 summary, too, for easy referrence.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

For the record, she was an innocent ordinary member of the expedition.

Pity she's gone, but thank Goddess that's out ouf the way!

[Inziladun]

I was going to repeat Legate's news, so I'll just say what a pity, Nog. All that work for nothing.

[Thinlómien]

I'm writing a reply as I read, so forgive me if I repeat stuff people have said...

I'm currently finding Mac quite innocent, andf looking at his vote summary, Shasta and Nienna (ha!) seem slightly bad. YesterDay's voting was quite a mess, and to be honest, I have no idea what to make out of it, except that, like I said, I think Mac is innocent, and possibly Inzil too. That would make it slightly more probable that Mnemo is guilty, or then we are really unlucky.

I'm kind of grudging Legate for making this "humane decision" event. Because now we don't have any dead ie cleared people. And no wolf-kill tracks to follow (although this will be one of those painful games where the kills are more confusing due to the lack of a seer). So it's kind of good Roa had to leave (although that was sad ) because that means we have some information.

Nogrod's case on Roa is just absurdly over the top, it doesn't make any sense. I really wonder if that makes him a wolf. Because that would be the only reason I could see him doing that, "ooh I'll be so crazy and over-the-top that no one will believe I'm actually a wolf"...?

Mnemo is odd.

Can someone accuse me or get me otherwise very involved? Because I feel strangely "unattached" from this game, I'm reading it as if I wasn't playing it myself. Hmph.

Originally Posted by Mnemo

I should add that Roa's departure puts paid to my theory that she and Nog were our gifteds staging an uprising. Phooey.

Glad I wasn't the only one thinking that.

Nogrod has quite good points against Pitchie, but I still wonder about him too.

I'm not sure what to make of Lottie's vote for me. It is poorly reasoned, but not necessarily evil. She's not so much of a newbie anymore, though, so I would expect more depth from her. Well but really, she just summarises what I said, doesn't criticise it all or tell why it is suspicious and just votes me. *raises an eyebrow*

I'll be back and more involved later! I'll leave you with a list based on gut-feeling and all the points I've brought up this far:

Leaning innocent
Boro
Mac
Inzil
Greenie
Eomer

In the middle
Bes
trom
Morsul
Lottie
Sally
Brinn
Wilwa
Nerwen

Leaning guilty
Mnemo
Nogrod
Nienna
Pitchie
Shasta

PS. I really feel pitifully uninvolved. I promise I try to do something about that when I come back from school.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Either I don't get that, or it's non sequitur. People wouldn't have voted to lynch either in earnest if they were gifted? Wolves would certainly have done it. And innocents have done it before by mistake, as was discussed at some length yesterDay (by yourself, among others) - which discussion should have reminded us to be more careful not to make the same mistake again, but it's no guarantee. So I don't see how we can assume anything about Zil's and Mac's roles, pro or con, based on the votes for them.

Before I eat, should clear up yet again my dazzling inability at unclarity.

I mean since we all thought someone would die, Mac and Inzil must have both been aware they were in trouble of getting lynched. And since they were aware of this, but did not come out with any reveal, can we assume that they aren't gifted and if they are in danger of being lynched again, and do "reveal" that it is false?

[Pitchwife]

See your point now, Boro, but from my own experience, I don't think so. I've been lynched on Day 1 as a gifted (you wouldn't know that, of course) and didn't reveal to save myself, because I felt a) the village wouldn't benefit from my escaping the noose just to be wolf-killed instead, and b) I deserved what I got, as somebody put it yesterDay. A reveal at a later point, when the population has thinned and known innocents are much more valuable, is another matter.

[Mnemosyne]

Boro, that seems like a relatively safe assumption to make (which, considering that we don't have much information right now, is about all we have to go off of).

But I don't see how it does us much good, aside from giving us some non-Gifteds, because what kind of false wolvish idiot would decide to switch strategies like that?

And not to mention... (here's another one for the bookwriters) There was a day, early in the Werewolf years of this forum, when gifteds simply didn't reveal.

Which led to really interesting moments when people would say things like, "Tell us, Not-Seer, who do you think is a wolf? Who do you think is innocent?" (That person died the next day.) Or one of my favorites, "If you don't vote for X, vote for me, because I'm not the hunter and I won't take him down when I die!"

[/nostalgia]

However, I'm not sure if that ever held true when people were about to die. But different people have different approaches. The game that I modded had a triple-lynch between a wolf, a Ranger, and an ordo. If memory serves me correctly, the Ranger did not reveal. (This was Pitchwife, so if you'd care to back me up on this...)

So, yes, safe assumption for now, but not failproof.

At any rate, anyone who didn't reveal when on the chopping block before but does so afterwards is asking to be disbelieved.

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh... I saw the announcements just logging back in and well...

Okay. The more reasons to make this post... (Sorry, but I will not edit things here to be up to date as I've written this before the news got me, and I've done enough with this post already...)


In the order of voting then on yesterDay…

Morsul (for Mac)
Reads Boro in an awkward way (maybe due to the pressing of Roa and Nerwen?). Makes actually quite decent points on Mac (same analysis, different outcomes). Votes Mac because of his possible making Boro untouchable tactics weighing more. Borrows a lot but also makes some of his own. Not that it makes him more innocent or wolvish.

Roa (for Nogrod)
retaliation… ‘nuff said earlier.

Brinn (for Nerwen)
Looks pretty reasonable indeed… and whatever you Roa say, suspicious just because of that. Careful, wise… makes good assessments on issues and votes Nerwen for bandwaggoning. But is also a bit nervous about my suspicion of Roa. Makes me wonder.

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Greenie (for Mnemo)
Comes to the solution because of a “slight beep on her radar”, Mnemo not rubbing anyone the wrong way. Very hard to say anything over.

So here we have one vote each…and then it starts...

Eomer (for Mnemo 2)
After suspecting Mac (and a few others) contends Mnemo’s agreeableness is too much and takes her to the lead. Says he is gambling with the vote.

Bes (for Mac 2)
First goes after Roa’s and Nerwen’s “questioning” turning it into open suspicion, then says best thing is Zil’s suspicion on Mac. Maybe newbieness, maybe calculated…

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

Lommy (for Mnemo 3)
Consistent suspicions and arguments throughout the Day… a hard thing for a wolf, but still a bit too neat? But thinking her evil would mean basically that Mac is evil as well… *needs to think*

Sally (for Roa)
Says basically nothing but trust me even if I look weird to her… Hard to assess.

Shasta (for Inzil 2)
Would have liked to vote for Eomer (for old times’ sake?) , sees no support in voting me either; does not want to lynch Mnemo or Mac and just goes for Inzil (forgot his early case against Morsul?)

Nienna (for Inzil 3)
Defends Mnemo a few times, thinks me and Roa innocent like Mnemo. Says specifically (after all the earlier) that would like to vote Zil over Mnemo or Mac. There’s something I can’t quite get here.

Nog (for Roa 2)
I had to act / see it through. And actually with Sally’s vote I was wishing to see whether Roa would suddenly – “just by coincidence” appeared back to the thread fighting back… she knows when to be visible and when not… well she didn’t appear. Confident enough or not able to?

Mac (for Inzil 4)
I can’t help suspecting him as we think in many cases the opposite people innocent and I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random… but his vote is more than understandable (which doesn’t say anything the way or another).

Inzil (for Mac 4)
Same as with Mac: an understandable self-preservation vote. But from the two seems more consistent and genuine as he had suspected Mac from early on. I really can’t see why people thought Zil that suspicious as to garner 4 votes!


Nerwen (for Mac 5 – not counted)
She’s a puzzle to me… makes some rash comments but also makes good questions, fex. as to why Mac made his list on Boro as he did as his own way would be even more suspicious then.


Did not vote…

Boro – I feel more innocent than not.
Wilwa – said she wouldn’t prolly be around and has explained
Trom – newbie and will have the benefit of doubt but needs to pull her act together soon
Lottie – wasn’t bad in the beginning… but not too good either…


Needs to read the latest and to make a summary of all this as well... *a few moments required*

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Morsul -> Mac (well-reasoned vote, considering how early it was)

Well Thank You sir... that being said... odd to see someone call a vote for themselves reasonable. I feel like I'm being courted to not vote this way again.
hmm

Mnem:On the other hand, Morsul is irritatingly confusing and often confused. Which he is (for me, at least) elsewhere on the thread. Voting him would be easy, especially considering his vote for Mac.

Yeah I get that a lot... but wait.... ill reasoned moi?

Mnem: (Bolding mine)Okay, so the suspicionometers of everyone else on the thread were a lot less definitive than I thought...

And the vibes aren't giving me any more direction...

Which means it's coinflip time...

++Inziladun

Oh and This bit today:

Mnem: YesterDay I had to vote early off no more information than gut feelings, and now that I've had the space of a day to think about it I'd like to actually analyze what I think is setting those feelings off. Feelings, after all, can be really misleading--especially mine (I can think of several other players who've managed to make inspired votes by intuition!).

now these two posts... when seperate seem more like don't lynch me please.... Together make something a bit more... odd

and

So far that's all I've noticed.

[Nogrod]

Those of you who have not been around for long may find the concept of "Devil's advocate reading" on someone a strange concept. So let me explain.

"A Devil's advocate reading" of someone means that one reads another from the POV s/he is a wolf and analyses everything in that vein trying to see if that would make a believable pattern / whole. The DAR can be a mighty weapon in catching wolves but it may also backfire badly when one let's her/his imagination to run free looking only at the possible guilt.

I'm not exactly true to DAR here as I also try to see where she might be believably innocent at times, but I must admit there is a lot of it in what follows. And now as I've come clear I'd like to hear your comments Roa. After all any outstanding ordo getting killed is a great loss to us.


This is her first reaction to my suspicion:

Originally Posted by Roa

What? Huh? Really? First, you spend your posts using in character banter, and now you decide I'm guilty on a number slip? With all do respect, are you on something? This is the most ridiculous thing I've seen yet.

That might go either way… But she continues in the same vein in her next one.

What Boro said didn't make sense- he said that wolves are reasonable that gifteds aren't, implying that we ought to be lynching the reasonable ones. (By the way, you most certainly do NOT fall into that category.) Reasonableness is a terrible reason to lynch someone.

I just can’t make these interpretations of Roa and what Boro actually said to meet… And the next one is actually as much overdonme and pointless.

Originally Posted by Roa

Now who's trying to continue the debate? Oh, that would be you. By carrying on about the gifted an what they're doing, you are giving pointers to the wolves about how to spot gifted, and you're distracting the village from doing actual wolf-hunting. Not to mention the whole idea of what Boromir says discourages us from voting for people that we find suspicious for fear that they may be gifted, something that you seem keen to press on everyone while at the same time coming up with ludicrous suspicions that have no merit, further distracting the village.

I was not continuing the debate, I was taking another angle to it and finding Roa suspicious… not to say I was pointing to wolves how to spot gifteds. I mean how was I doing that Roa? I see this post as totally confusing and have a real problem seeing an innocent Roa making it.

The next post (#84) is also interesting as Roa seems really defensive – especially if what I said is totally frivolous like she says… So why bother then? There was no heavy overall suspicion on her at that point. And also she is careful enough to actually trying to make friends with Boro as well explaining her own words better than they were in the first place.

Then I think she makes an interesting move saying (in #88)

Originally Posted by Roa

A reasonable reminder of what, exactly, Nogrod? That we don't want to lynch gifteds? Well, duh, we all know that. What do you make of the second part of his statement? That wolves slip by on reasonableness? How do you take that?

Which is clearly reading another person wrong in purpose… I said Boro made a good reminder of the fact that reasonable-looking people (counting reasonable-looking wolves) tend to pass our radars and the gifteds can look suspicious because of their position and pressure. And even if I answered her second question she never commented on that – so just rhetorics?

Then we come to the heavy ammunition part…

Originally Posted by Roa

Nogrod, you say you're convinced of my guilt, but you refuse to give a reason why besides meta-gaming. And you openly state that you're looking for reasons to lynch me, meaning that you haven't actually got any.

Fair enough - as I have revealed. And I must say I felt a thorn in my side while reading this as it was true. But the continuation was a stretch to put it mildly… or should I say revealing?

Originally Posted by Roa

I am now convinced that the secret role is the cobbler, and Nogrod is it. He's clearly hinting at being the seer, which the seer Nogrod wouldn't do, because he knows better than to do something so risky. Further more, he can't be the seer, because he most certainly wouldn't attack me like this if he was. Make no mistake, this is a cobbler planning a false reveal.

A secret role… a cobbler… what an anticlimax. And as I have argued already on D1 it would be the most stupid thing to come into the center of controversy as a cobbler needs to stay alive into the Days where her/his involvement actually matters.

But interestingly Roa is now talking openly of me hinting at being the seer – as she feels like it as I’m right? – like our game long long ago perhaps? The same feeling might it be?

And a false reveal? Well a good move but sadly not one you would see.

In the next one she says.

Originally Posted by Roa

My problem is that this is the ONLY point he has against me, and yet he claims that he is absolutely convinced I'm a wolf. The fact that he has to look for reasons to lynch me is evidence of the fact that HE HASN'T GOT ANY.

I hope I have now answered your craving for other reasons to suspect you? The capital letters do suggest some desperation to me, but we do express things differently and so I’m not going to make an issue out of it as I don’t feel comfortable with it.

The continuation of that post looked like pretty smart one as ideas go…

Originally Posted by Roa

You may think that a cobbler Nogrod wouldn't go so far so fast, but I think he would- getting rid of one strong player, and forcing the village to lynch him on Day 2, means two days go by with out a dead wolf, and the village becomes significantly quieter.

But really she can’t say with this bunch of people that she and I gone the expedition-ship would be quiet… or even significantly quieter. I know many of the people around could fill the silence we ‘d leave around… and "a cobbler me" would really want to make a difference later in the game when it matters...

Then she went on to make a conditionally true statement.

Originally Posted by Roa

For one, Nogrod doesn't kill loud players when he's a wolf because he sportingly likes to get them lynched. And if he can lynch them early, well, he's done quite a feat.

Agreed. But the last sentence makes me wonder again.

Originally Posted by Roa

And it looks like he's having fun to me. I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

First I thought “wow, she’s making a confession!” But then I read it again and felt confused. I really don’t get the meaning of that… It so much looks like she’s saying that if she were in my position being able to press on me like I do she’d love it (so actually revealing she was really in trouble) but it couldn’t be as I don’t think Roa would slip that way…

Her last one is an interesting one as well… so answering to Eomer she says

Originally Posted by Roa

Okay, then why would he back off it instead of using it to back up his suspicions? Why rely on the poor reasoning of a slip when he could be using my disagreement with Boromir against me? There's no reason for him not to, so why?

I can see the innocent / guilty anguish there. But how about I was not in the first place willing to “make a case” on D1? How about I was just willing to find your reactions – and part of that game would be that I would not stick to whatsoever suspicion to try and “prove” your guilt, but just letting you know I was after you like I told earlier today to see how you react? To make you feel I know what you are like years ago?

Sorry Roa, that might have been a rude experiment but with the best one needs to use the most cunning methods… and by God I was wavering near the DL as I thought I might get killed the next Night. But then I reasoned it out that if I was right my death would point at Roa clearly enough and if I was wrong the amount of suspicion I had gathered could keep me alive. So I decided to watch the cards through to whatever end they were carrying me.

This “mercy-Day/Night” idea was just superb!


So what do I think myself?

Well I do still suspect Roa. There are so many things that yell wolf to me up there. But I have been looking at others as well during this no-kill Night as I had time. O just need to collect my notes into a reasonable post...


PS. Thanks for the vote-summary Mac! That was a thing I had not made yet... It will help me a lot.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Perfect wolvery to my eyes.

I like how people are still using this word. Makes me proud. According to the search engine, I coined it back in 2005 (and I don't think I stole it from anyone ).

It's still not in the dictionary.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I like how people are still using this word. Makes me proud. According to the search engine, I coined it back in 2005 (and I don't think I stole it from anyone ).

It's still not in the dictionary.

I've considered co-authoring a book with Nog about werewolf/werebear tips, maybe you can write a chapter on "Terminology?"

And Wednesday, again I'm on a glacier expedition until 3:30, I need to collect data on Glacier Nip X "Zero" T, because it's bumping into Glacier Y2Delta. So I'm going to have to vote a few hours before the DL, to avoid the mistake yesterday and not feel rushed to get back and vote.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I've considered co-authoring a book with Nog about werewolf/werebear tips, maybe you can write a chapter on "Terminology?"

Ooooouh, do I see a new thread coming on?

The Theory of WW - An Introduction.

[Boromir88]

Now onto thoughts from all the people I've studied considerably up to this point...

Wilwa: no appearance yet. She says she'll be with us today, I think we let the ice do with her what it will...erm forced glacier pun, in other words we wait for her because nothing else can be determined yet.

tromkehra: 2 in character posts, #33 was a response to Roa and #53 a response to Bes. Pick it up today trom, I may vote for you because my gratitude is on thin...ice. (And yes, I just did it again )

Loslote: #7 was completely in character and remarking about the inspiring talk so far, full of long words. #9 agrees with Nienna about wanting to avoid gifted reveals. #15 talks to Pitch about a previous internet game thingy, one I'm unfamiliar with. (Same thing I said to trom applies to Lottie)

Brinn: #38 said DL is bad for her, but likes people moving away from banter. And defends yours truly. #78, defends yours truly again...doesn't like how several people "jumped on me." #92 comments to Lommy about previous game when her, Nog, and Roa were wolves. #105, suspects Nog for his attack against Roa, and Nerwen for her against me. Votes for Nerwen.

She's moved into the "unsure" category, because the wagon of people claiming they didn't like how several jumped onto my comments is just as troubling as those who did. However she was the first to say she agreed and defend my reasons, so I'm still leaning towards innocence. It will take a lot to get me to thinking about voting for her today.

I would also like to just point out, that out of those who did question what the heck I was saying, Nerwen looks the most innocent. I never actually felt like she was twisting what I was saying, or assuming I was saying something I wasn't, but was searching for clarification.

Bes: #39 in character at first, but then says I back-pedalled after being questioned by Inzil, Nerwen, and Roa. #42, notes Mnemo and Roa for answering his musings about not lynching on Day 1. #44, in character and says he needs to go to bed. #136 "back and reading." #156, now he actually does back-pedal on what he said about me in #39. Is suspicious of both Nog and Roa for their arguing, but feels strongest about Mac because of Inzil's points.

I'm unsure about Bes, but let's put it as "leaning guilty." Deserves another looking and of his few posts there was a lot of in-character. I think the biggest question is how he tags onto Inzil's suspicion of Mac and votes Mac, because of it. I can't tell if it's a new player who is getting his feet frozen...erm wet, trying to get a feel, or if it's a wolf trying to absolve himself from his own vote. The "I was just convinced by this person defense."

will continue with the rest after I eat.