WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[wilwarin538]

K, here, gonna take a look at Mnemo's posts, and then I'll be back...

[Loslote]

Here and reading.

[Nienna]

Nerwen:

Day One:

34. Isn’t much the village can do to prevent lynching gifteds, wonders if Boro is saying that we shouldn’t lynch suspicious people.

56. Vs. Boro on Reasonableness

One interesting quote that sticks out “Wolves try all kinds of tactics” … it doesn’t necessarily say innocent nor does it say guilty but it is interesting.

72. Argues with Nog about Roa’s “slip”

It would have been easy for a wolf to jump onto the slip to frame an innocent Roa … but she could also not want to be caught trying to frame Roa if she turned out innocent.

87. More vs. Boro

181. Votes Mac “for dodgy reasoning” (late).

This concerns me… maybe because she admits that it is not even bad reasoning but ‘dodgy’.

Day Two

216. Doesn’t want to assume that since Mac and Zil didn’t reveal when they were about to be lynched that they aren’t gifteds.

238. Thinks she knows what Nog’s meta-reasoning is but she isn’t sure

This could be after a nice chat with fellow wolves about what Nog was talking about.

246. Wonders why Lottie voted Lommy

253. Doesn’t like Mnemo’s argument against Zil

Wolf-on-wolf? Possible.

266. Defends herself

268. Looks at people who agreed with Nog against Roa and found only Boro and Eomer but thought Boro looked okay and not enough to go on Eomer, find’s Mnemo starting to look very sinister.

I’m not sure if a fellow would necessarily point out a sinister looking Mnemo… but it is possible

277. Quotes Mnemo saying she is a wolf, gives more reasons for not liking Mnemo

I’m thinking that a wolf-Nerwen wouldn’t directly quote a wolf-Mnemo saying she’s a wolf… so I’m thinking better of Nerwen… I could be wrong though…

293. Sally/Mnemo switcheroo theory.

Strange…

301. Votes Mnemo but adds that she isn’t really sure about it.

Summary: I’m feeling better about Nerwen after having looked at her. She could be a tricksy wolf but it doesn’t feel like it to me.

[Loslote]

Sorry about yesterDay. I had planned to look at all of her posts, but I hadn't even finished her first when I had to go. I barely managed to finish that one. In hindsight, I probably should have just dropped that Post 1 analysis, but...

[Loslote]

Looking at people:

Boro is fairly logical and makes sense most of the time, but I can't quite get a reading on him.

Eomer I have no idea about, but probably innocent.

I don't think Morsul is a wolf, but I can't say with anything like certainty that he's an ordo.

I think Brinn's innocent...we just get on each other's nerves...

Pitchie seems innocent, maybe too much so? I'm not too worried about him right now, though.

Nienna seems good. She's one of the ones I feel most confident about...not that that's very confident...

Something still feels off about Nogrod, but I can't put my finger on it.

I thought Mac looked good yesterday, and I think so even more now. When he mentioned that we wouldn't learn too much from my role if I died, and more from Mnemo's - that seemed ordoish.

I don't know what to think about sally. She doesn't jump out as a wolf, but she's done some things that make me think.

Lommy, as you may have noticed, definitely looks furry to me. I still have no proof or reasoning, so I'll probably ease back on that one.

Nerwen looks genuine.

Bes still looks suspicious to me. He is a newbie, so I'm not looking very hard at him yet, but I do think he could easily be a wolf.

Shasta could go either way for me.

Wilwa looks suspicious, but she's not at the top of my list.

Greenie I'm not sure about.

So, Suspicious:
Bes, Lommy, and Nog still look the worst to me.

Slightly suspicious:
Wilwa, sally, and maybe Pitchie.

Unsure:
Shasta, Greenie, Morsul

Leaning innocent:
Brinn, Boro, Eomer

Probably innocent:
Nerwen, Nienna, Mac.

EDIT: xed with wilwa and Mac

[Loslote]

Oh, and just to get this out of the way, because I know it's going to come up...

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

I don't know how much longer I'll have online, but I should be able to get on later. Hopefully. Until then, have fun being chaotic.

[Nienna]

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

I'd love to hear more from Lommy. I do not agree with Mac that her two decisive votes for Mnemo make her look super innocent. Her behavior has still been a bit strange and her votes could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward.

Not again...

For a new suspect: How about Bes? The more I look at him, the more uneasy I get, but I don't have time to analyze him right now. I've only got fifteen minutes or so before I've got to go...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I have the impression Lottie's been getting on Brinn's nerves ever since their first game together (when innocent Lottie tried to make a case against innocent Brinn based on some blatant word-twisting). Also, Brinn's vote for Lottie was the first at a time when there were plenty other contenders for the noose.

Heh, I didn't even remember that until you mentioned it...and even then it's still blurry. But really, I don't have any harsh feelings against Loslote; I simply found her actions yesterDay to be suspicious.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Green: probably innocent, voted Mnemo first.

Eomer: definitely innocent, put Mnemo in lead.

Lommy: definitely innocent, put Mnemo onto 3 votes.

Mac: possibly guilty, said he'd prefer Inzi over Mnemo a lot. Maybe too strong and incriminating for a wolf? Also, highly suspicious of Mnemo next day. PROBABLY INNOCENT.

Shasta: guilty? tried to save Mnemo

Nienna: guilty? ditto

Inzi: innocent, sacrificed to save Mnemo on first day and Mnemo also suspected him the day after, after he already had a lot of votes.

Nerwen: probably innocent, strongly against Mnemo on second day.

Pitch: innocent? voted for by Mnemo at start of day two.

Wilwa: guilty? when votes are 1 each for lots of people, wilwa defends Mnemo.

Nogrod: innocent? seems critical of Mnemo

Sally: guilty? also doesn't want to vote Mnemo

Nienna tried to save Mnemo again by killing Loslote. GUILTY

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Btw, I'm slightly concerned about this jump on Nienna. Yes, she tried to save Mnemo twice, but that doesn't make her automatically guilty. I've seen plenty of innocents get lynched in the past for this reason and because of that, the wolves could easily set Nienna up to be toDay's lynch, so let's not jump to conclusions. Of course now that I've said this, she'll probably turn out to be a wolf after all. But unless she does something majorly suspicious toDay, I doubt I'll vote her.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

Hmm...I'm not convinced. The problem with the secret role is that it's so much easier for a baddie to get away with a fake reveal since we don't know what the role is. One dream for the entire game? A limited seer is certainly possible, though I honestly expected more from a secret role.

While I'm still not sure whether to believe Loslote's claim, I will give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay and see what dream she comes up with toMorrow. It'd be pretty silly to lynch her now with the chance that she is telling the truth. I wonder if there'll be a counter reveal...

[Macalaure]

I don't seem to be able to think today, so I won't contribute much now. Just a list of my current impressions, taking our newly-acquired knowledge into consideration. From good to bad:

Lommy - two crucial votes for Mnemo. Unless the wolves are really twisted, she's none.

Greenie - one early and one crucial votes for Mnemo, plus tons of sense in her posts. Innocent.

Eomer - two votes for Mnemo, though the second one was very late. Pretty innocent.

Nerwen - bad vote on D1, good vote on D2. I'm pretty confident of her innocence now.

Boro - a no vote and a first vote for someone with little support. His record isn't pretty, but I still feel good about him.

Pitch - difficult one. Tied me with Mnemo on D1 and voted Mnemo in fifth place, while everyone else had 2 or less (high wolf-on-wolf probability). Mnemo goes after him and votes him, too, which would make this a double wolf-on-wolf, whew. Sketchy situation that is cleared in Pitch's favour by the wolves killing Inzil, Mnemo's other main suspect. Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them.

Morsul - he tied Lottie with Mnemo, which is bad. Other than that, I don't find much fault with him.

Lottie - can't say much. Confused, but I don't think maliciously so.

Brinn - first vote for Lottie, a promising bandwaggon after her strange behaviour. If I was a co-wolf of Mnemo and looking for a subtle way to save her (since it was obvious she would be in trouble), this would be a good way. Brinn continues to be a big question mark for me.

Bes - tied me with Mnemo on D1, then a no-vote. Deserves scrutiny.

Wilwa - first a no-vote, and then she tied Boro with the rest. Worth a careful look.

Nogrod - kept himself out of the fray with his vote for Roa on D2, voted Mnemo when it was clear that she would be gone eventually anyway. Nogrod isn't known to be scrupulous about his mates, especially when they're in danger.

Shasta - voted Inzil to save Mnemo (and not me)? Threw away vote on D2. Suspicious, which is annoying because I had faith in him so far.

Nienna - voted Inzil to save Mnemo (and not me)? Threw away vote on D2. Suspicious.

Sally - threw away her vote on D1 and made Lottie's waggon competitive again on D2 (very quickly after Inzil made it seem possible again). Very bad.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, so here are some of Mnemo's more important posts, I left out some that were repetitive, I did this fairly quickly and I'm tired, but cause I won't be around too too much tomorrow I wanted to contribute at least a bit....


#20:

As far as the role discussion goes... that's basically everyone's attempts to get something productive done on a Day One scenario. Since we're not given too much new material to chew over, I can't think of any other productive pot-stirring methods. At the same time, what else is there really to say, except, "Don't Reveal"?

*sigh*

Not much to be done, really. I can never get a feel for anyone off Day One, and the "what if this suspect's a gifted?" paranoia is doubled because the gifteds, like the baddies, know each other--giving the teams one more similarity that my addled pate really can't afford.

Nothing really stands out to me here, seems like a fairly common thing to say.

#41:

The vote is the one powerful tool we as a group have; if we give that up all we are are meaningless numbers. Yeah, we might screw things up, but at least we did something.

Plus as Roa said lynch votes can be really helpful for analysis, plus all that the wolves would have to do is give us a completely flusterworthy no-trace kill and we'd be back in the same pickle.

And if we want to translate this into numbers... the wolves (and, to an extent, the Ranger) already have control of who dies toNight. We control (and yes, there are wolves in our number, but in this case they are just four among many) who dies toDay.

#97:

Am I the only one who's convinced that the current tiffs are just opinionated ordos going insane, and the real wolves are sitting back and practically rubbing their hands with glee?

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

I am glad, however, that we no longer have the problem we had thirteen hours ago or so! At the very least Boro and Roa should be commended for their apt bit of pot-stirring.

Since we've been discussing wolf strategies so much (reasonability etc.), could we please try to look at things from other angles? What I'm thinking of is more of along the lines of IC versus OOC. With a good deal of us (that's where the strategy falls short--our beloved n00bs!) there's a huge paper trail for how they normally play as innocent villagers. I think that that's a much better indicator of wolf-hood than whether a person sounds reasonable or not.

Mentions Nog and Boro here, not really anything overly huge though.

#108: a bit of a list, says she definitely won't vote for Nog, Roa or Boro...didn't like that Lottie and Nienna "restated the rules"...tempted to vote Morsul for confusion and Mac vote...good with Mac and Eomer...Pitch and Inzil feel "off"...wants to hear more from Brinn....wants more from Lommy and Shasta and myself...

So the fact that she was so sure about Nog, Roa and Boro makes me think that either Boro or Nog might be a wolf, mentions alot of others pretty lightly.

#128: wolf vibes from Pitch and Inzil

#130: coin flips them, goes with Inzil

#192:

Which is why I've decided that I'm not going to vote to try to save people anymore, much less vote "politically." And I encourage others to follow suit. Granted, we all had little information to go off of yesterday, and we have little more information to go off of today. But when everyone's doing this sort of thing it creates divisions within the crew, divisions that wolves will be all too happy to exploit.

#222:

Shasta: because suddenly guilt becomes relative.

Still don't really know what she meant by this.

#225:

But it's always easy to vote for someone who you think voted weird. I didn't vote for you because 1). you were pretty yourself, as far as I could tell (which my vibes yesterday were saying were off for Inzil and Pitch... analysis of both hopefully coming up in an hour or two), and 2). to me it felt like doing so would be a copout. I don't like making "easy" votes in Werewolf, unless the Seer has come out and told me who a wolf is.

#237: Summary about Inzil,

Several of the posts he made, especially early on, seemed to be for sheer zeal of the game... that first summary, continuing on with Boro... even correcting Roa! That's the kind of exuberance I expect from two kinds of people: 1). wolves, and 2). me. The fact that he was in the most previous game pushes him more into the "wolf" camp, as I know that much of my own exuberance comes from the fact that I take long breaks in between games.

In short, I've been suspecting him because if he's not a wolf, then he's acting too much like me for my own liking. I don't trust people who act like me.

# 243:

Even when I analyze people, it tends to be what this says about me and not what it says about the player, because I actually know myself and how I think!

Go ahead and suspect me because of my vote yesterDay. I completely deserve that, because I should have taken a few deep breaths and thought things over some more. But finding me suspicious because of who I am as a reader of the gamethread and as a player makes me just a tad bit sad.

#263: Pitch Analasis, "silly jumpiness", and "short discrete chunks" also found Lottie's vote weird

#267: votes Pitch and says that it's a "concrete rational reason"

#270: linking this one, cause it's so long and interesting here

random banter with Sally for quite a while


and then that's about it, not really as useful as I had hoped.
So really she doesn't mention too many people all that much. The one thing I got from all this is that I think Pitch might be innocent, she mostly concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, and she voted for Pitch at a time that he very well could have been lynched, so I think he's probably fine. Her exchange with Sally is a bit weird, not really enough to suspect Sally, but I'll be keeping an eye on her. She seemed to be very positive of Nog's innocence, saying so more then once and insisting that the RoaNog exchange was innocent on innocent. So that's a bit interesting, the fact that Roa ended up innocent, perhaps Nog wasn't and she was trying to make it look like it really was innocent on innocent debate. I don't however find Nog all that suspicious, but still, I'm gonna keep that in mind.


Wow I was really hoping to get more out of all that, but I'm really exhausted and have to work late tomorrow. So I'll be back in the morning for a little bit, my vote will be early I'm afraid. Maybe someone will see something in Mnemo's posts that I didn't.

edit: x'ed with Lottie and Mac