WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

Well now you can't expect us to just sit here and be hunky-dory about those who defended Mnemo and voted in an attempt to save her. You are under suspicion for strong and understandable reasons.

However, as I said before, I think votes can be craftily manipulated by the wolves. And since Mnemo had 3-votes on Day 1 I'm putting more stock into the wolf-on-wolf than Eomer is. That still doesn't change the fact that several people defended her, and several more didn't have much to say about her, so Eomer is being 100% understandable in his focus on those who defended Mnemo.

Taking other stuff into consideration, aside from the voting, I think you look pretty good Nienna. Your consistant efforts against Lommy make you look more innocent than others who defended Mnemo. Lommy is a tough lynch, and I would think any wolves who were trying some sort of effort to save Mnemo would try to turn the focus on someone who was under more suspicion/an easier lynch.

I will just tell you though, I have no idea what you're seeing that is suspicious with Lommy. I may be putting too much stock in judging people based on feelings and words, but Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple. A wolf is excited to be a wolf, they may not be a loud/active player, but there still is a certain level of excitement, and involvement, about having the role.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Eomer is pretty much saying that, but that's still an exaggeration. It's like when people thought I was saying we should lynch all the reasonable players. Eomer isn't saying lynch everyone who defended/voted to save Mnemo, because there just aren't that many wolves. But he is rightfully pointing attention to the sizeable group of people who did something to defend Mnemo. Anyone in that group could be a wolf and it's only right they all should come under suspicion for it.

Edit: crossed with Brinn

[Bes]

Brinn: That's what I get for speed reading. Appologies. Also, I need to get to bed. See you all tomorrow. I'd say I'd get more done, but honestly that seems to be the kiss of death for my productivity so far. We'll see. :-/

[Nerwen]

Hi all. I've wasted an hour or more going through Mnemo's posts, but I've decided there's no point posting my full analysis, because it came up with pretty much the same result as Wilwa's. Which is to say that she left no clear leads to anyone; might have a connection with Sally because of all their bantering (but might also have been trying to make it look that way); and that her repeated statements about feeling sure that both Nogrod and Roa were innocent might point at Nogrod. Or not; it could have been meant to make herself look good if either were lynched and proven innocent. I also agree that her vote for Pitchwife is unlikely to have been wolf-on-wolf, unless she assumed no-one would follow it.

This is what perplexes me; she was careless enough to get herself lynched yesterDay with her downright absurd "cases" ("Zil plays like me! That makes him a wolf!"), yet careful enough to leave no real trails. Interesting.

Her comments on Lottie are a case in point; in the same post that she votes Pitch she describes Lottie as "wolvish". Now, is she fake-suspecting a packmate (while voting someone else) or trying to keep an innocent in the running? Not much help in evaluating Lottie's claim, anyway.

EDIT:fixed formatting.

[Boromir88]

Lottie's reveal makes perfect sense. If she only gets one dream, her task was to stay alive to get it, and with the Ranger's help, she'll get it.

I see no reason to doubt it. The wolves just lost one yesterday, why throw another one out into the water? We'll find out if she's telling the truth or not within a few days.

I do think with what happened yesterday, Lottie wasn't going to be under suspicion like she was yesterday, but if she's gone for the rest of the day I certainly understand her reason to not want to risk it.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

Eomer isn't saying lynch everyone who defended/voted to save Mnemo, because there just aren't that many wolves. But he is rightfully pointing attention to the sizeable group of people who did something to defend Mnemo. Anyone in that group could be a wolf and it's only right they all should come under suspicion for it.

Well, I didn't say I thought Eomer wanted to lynch everyone who defended Mnemo, just that he labeled them all as suspicious. But I was more concerned about him labeling everyone who voted Mnemo as most likely innocent. I agree that those who defended Mnemo should be looked at because there's a good chance one is a wolf, but I also think it's just as likely that there's one wolf among the group that voted Mnemo.

[Boromir88]

One quick thing before...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, I didn't say I thought Eomer wanted to lynch everyone who defended Mnemo, just that he labeled them all as suspicious. But I was more concerned about him labeling everyone who voted Mnemo as most likely innocent. I agree that those who defended Mnemo should be looked at because there's a good chance one is a wolf, but I also think it's just as likely that there's one wolf among the group that voted Mnemo.

Fair enough, and by fair enough, I mean I concede that you weren't exaggerating anything. I tend to think Eomer stays much more focused and straight to the point, which is why I'm very pleased to see this from him. Of course there are weaknesses to going with the black and white approach, but there are also several strengths. For one, you don't drive yourself crazy trying to endlessly spin your head in circles of all the possibities (some reasonable possiblities, others plain outrageous ).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Read and caught up (mostly - will need to probably re-read tomorrow), but as it's nearly three in the morning, I should get to bed.

What I can say is this - Brinniel could be a wolf (not discounting her D1 connection to Nerwen) trying to save a Niennawolf with that next-to-most-recent post of hers. She brings up valid points, but it's almost with a "I'm not sure it's a good idea, but you guys do what you wanna do" attitude.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, Brinn, Werewolf can be a simple game. I have reasons for finding the Mnemo voters probably innocent, for now at least. After a few days we can examine more theories but for now, when we still have so many people alive in this expedition, I'm not going to complicate things.

Aye, they could have voted wolf-on-wolf, but I won't bother seriously entertaining that possibility - because I have four other villagers in my sight who are, to my mind, obviously more suspicious.

Or should I say susp-ice-ous?

Yes, yes I should.

[Macalaure]

My problem right now is that evidence and feeling arr quite far apart for me right now.

By evidence:
Good: Eomer, Lommy, Green
Quite good: Lottie (after reveal), Pitch, Nerwen
Unsure: Boro, Morsul, Brinn, Nogrod (ranked him a bit too low in my list above, I guess)
Quite bad: Bes, Wilwa
Bad: Nienna, Sally, Shasta

By feeling:
Good: Boro, Lottie, Nerwen, Green
Quite good: Eomer, Pitch, Sally, Shasta
Unsure: Morsul, Nienna, Bes, Wilwa
Quite bad: Brinn, Nogrod, Lommy
Bad: ./.

My feeling is undeservedly bad on Brinn, Nogrod, and esp. Lommy, and undeservedly good on Nienna, Shasta, and Sally, all those that are really bad by evidence (Boro, too, but I'm not so worried about him). I have to try and figure this out toDay. No time right now, but a few hours before the deadline I will be there most of the time.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

My problem right now is that evidence and feeling arr quite far apart for me right now.

By evidence:
Good: Eomer, Lommy, Green
Quite good: Lottie (after reveal), Pitch, Nerwen
Unsure: Boro, Morsul, Brinn, Nogrod (ranked him a bit too low in my list above, I guess)
Quite bad: Bes, Wilwa
Bad: Nienna, Sally, Shasta

By feeling:
Good: Boro, Lottie, Nerwen, Green
Quite good: Eomer, Pitch, Sally, Shasta
Unsure: Morsul, Nienna, Bes, Wilwa
Quite bad: Brinn, Nogrod, Lommy
Bad: ./.

My feeling is undeservedly bad on Brinn, Nogrod, and esp. Lommy, and undeservedly good on Nienna, Shasta, and Sally, all those that are really bad by evidence (Boro, too, but I'm not so worried about him). I have to try and figure this out toDay. No time right now, but a few hours before the deadline I will be there most of the time.

Your opinion's got a pretty wide range there doesn't it, Mac? (However, while I still don't see the problem with me, I'll second you on Shasta and Nienna; I'll have to give them both another look but alas I fell asleep on the job last night and wasn't that productive.) Need to get ready for work but I was analyzing Lottie last night so I'll finish that as I dash about.

[satansaloser2005]

A list in order:

Lottie
Lommie (?)
Nerwen

Shasta, you should be well aware of this list, because you're really close to it. Nienna too but not so much based on a few observations I've made, so I'll back off of her for a bit and look at others.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta - I don't like it that he can't be around much and he uses all the energy he has to defend himself against random accusations instead of finding a wolf.

Brinn - this just struck me as a very lupine thing to say:

Originally Posted by Brinn

If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna.

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.

Makes me actually wonder if Brinn's a wolf and Nienna's an innocent...


edit: xed with Niennax2 and Sally

[Boromir88]

Now up and continuing...

Shasta

Day 1-
#171 doesn't see anything on Mnemo and Mac, votes Inzil.
Day 2-
#220 defends Day 1 vote saying he wasn't "sure" about Mac and Mnemo's innocence, but Inzil looked the least innocent of the three.
#234 doesn't trust Nerwen, her vote could have been to kill Mac, or to save Inzil or possibly Mnemo.
#354 votes Nerwen (1/1), confirms what Nienna said about his Day 1 vote.

I believe he was voting to save Mac and Mnemo not necessarily to kill Zil... does that make sense? ...and Shasta feel free to correct me as I'm speaking about something that might be untrue.

I don't think his Day 1 vote looks bad. In principle it's not bad to cast a vote to save someone you think is more innocent. I don't think the most suspicious part is his defense of voting for Inzil, but the fact that he doesn't trust Nerwen's Day 1 vote, because her vote could have been to save Inzil or Mnemo (or kill Mac). Now, Shasta said he was voting not to kill Inzil because he really thought he was a wolf, but to save Mac and Mnemo who he thought looked more innocent. If you weren't all that suspicious of Inzil in the first place, then why jump on Nerwen's vote?

Then his Day 2 vote is suspicious, not in wilwa's way, but by adding in another name to the pot a Shasta-wolf could have been hoping Mnemo would have gotten lost in the mix of names. Shasta looks highly suspicious, but I'm not willing to rule out being a misled innocent just yet.

Bes

Day 1- #42 notes Roa and Mnemo's point about lynching people on Day 1.

And that was the only time I noticed Bes say something to Mnemo. Possibly a wolf trying to keep at a distance, but that's weak paranoid speculation on my part. Based on interaction with Mnemo, he looks ok.

Nerwen

Day 1- Nada, intended to vote Mac.
Day 2-
#268 Mnemo suddenly looks sinister (I believe referring to #263)
#277 still not liking Mnemo
#293 thinks sally hacked into Mnemo's account
#293 debates Mnemo or Lottie
#301 votes Mnemo (1/7) but expresses uncertainty about it.

First to vote for Mnemo, which could be a wolf-on-wolf spot, but like Greenie everything matches up with Nerwen. She was the first to notice Mnemo was very different than from Day 1. It appeared to take Nerwen (and several others) by surprise. Even though everyone could see it (shouldn't say everyone, because I chose to ignore it completely), why would another wolf draw attention to it? I have no reservations about assuming Nerwen innocent.

Lommy

Day 1-
#58 a list and Mnemo is quite "eye-brow raising"
#95 suspects Mnemo a bit
#151 could vote for Nienna or Mnemo
#157 doesn't want to be the 3rd straight vote for Mnemo, because that would start a band-wagon and doesn't think Mnemo deserves it.
#163 Nienna would be a throw away, so Nog or Mnemo...
#168 votes Mnemo (3/3)
Day 2-
#273 Mnemo is odd and leaning towards guilty
#328 Mnemo and sally both raising eye-brows. Mnemo slightly more
#350 would be least sorry to lynch Mnemo
#362 votes Mnemo (and breaks the massive tie of 1-vote getters)

Voted for Mnemo twice which makes her look very innocent. Also the placement of her 2-votes don't make sense for being wolf-on-wolf. Unless if for Day 2 Mnemo was planning to go sacrificial, but even then it doesn't make sense considering #328 where Lommy makes the astute point:

And Mnemo has got about as many defenders as accusers.

This is worthy of more consideration. But first it's time to continue the increasingly lame use of playing with ice puns...Mnemo was definitely polar-izing! Ok, back to Lommy. Anyway, Lommy makes that point, and if a fellow-wolf notices that Mnemo has still quite a lot of defenders, why put her in the lead at that point?

One more thing for you Lommy, don't take offense, it's further attempt to offer help. From Day 1, from #157

Darn, Eomer's vote for Mnemo makes me hesitant to vote her, because that would turn the Mnemo-votes to a bandwagon and I'm not sure if she deserves that.

Now, I've come to expect a certain flippety-floppety from you, but that's just silly. You were going to vote for Mnemo, but were seriously considering not to because then it would be a bandwagon? Then you wind up casting the 3rd vote anyway (albeit Bes voted for Mac inbetween) but how could you rationalize that you still weren't bandwagoning? *sigh of disbelief*

For a normal person, I would be scratching my head at that silly line of reasoning, and seriously consider it for looking wolf-on-wolf. But, you are not normal, and strangely enough I understand the Finns are much nicer, and more considerate than me. Seriously though, realize you've got skillz at this and don't doubt yourself so much, least of all for something as silly as not wanting to bandwagon.

Edit: crossed with Mac

[Thinlómien]

I wish I had time to reread all for myself, but that's not case due to my bad timing (again). Anyway, I trust Wilwa's version of Mnemo's sayings, especially if Nerwen verifies it. And I guess it's ok to trust voting summaries too.

Loslote confuses me, mostly because when I saw her list post I was screaming "GUILTY!" to my screen and in the next post she claims to have the secret role. But I agree with whoever it was who suggested waiting at least until toMorrow. At this point, we would harm ourselves much more by distrusting her than by trusting her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nienna's votes look the worst as she has tried to save Mnemo two Days in a row. The only thing that bothers me there is why she voted for Lommy and not Lottie yesterDay (she could have made it 5-5)? Maybe she thought it would have been too obvious... but not taking sides at that point between the two only real candidates would look bad anyway...

It's easy to fall to that trap as a wolf, I know, I've done it sometimes. It's the sort of "uncertain wolf" approach: not voting a fellow so as not to abandon the hope s/he might be saved after all but not voting on another serious lynch candidate either because that would be too incriminating. If you think of it, it's not very smart, but it's very easy to do it if you're unsure/torn.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Remember the early days, when some of us would reference ourselves in lists as: definitely innocent, impeccably honest and true, and pretty darn handsome too, if I may say so; so handsome, in fact, that were he a wolf, he would have been murdered a long time ago by a pack of envious lupine males.

These days are not over.

Awwww.

Morsul's self-vote is weird, but I guess it makes sense by his logic. And it makes me feel good about him: I think a wolf would be more paranoid and careful and thus not vote himself but cast a random vote.

Originally Posted by Boro

Now, I've come to expect a certain flippety-floppety from you, but that's just silly. You were going to vote for Mnemo, but were seriously considering not to because then it would be a bandwagon? Then you wind up casting the 3rd vote anyway (albeit Bes voted for Mac inbetween) but how could you rationalize that you still weren't bandwagoning? *sigh of disbelief*

For a normal person, I would be scratching my head at that silly line of reasoning, and seriously consider it for looking wolf-on-wolf. But, you are not normal, and strangely enough I understand the Finns are much nicer, and more considerate than me. Seriously though, realize you've got skillz at this and don't doubt yourself so much, least of all for something as silly as not wanting to bandwagon.

Aww, it's my personal Dr Phil again! But it's really that I didn't suspect Mnemo so much, especially not on Day1. (Actually, when I read the news about her role at the end of yesterDay, I was slightly surprised, or more like "wow, I was correct" than "I told you so"...) And because I didn't really have much to go on, I didn't want her to die because of my vague suspicions, but then I reached the conclusion I suspect her more than anyone else anyway so she deserves my vote.

And here comes a quick list about my current feelings

Innocent
Greenie
Morsul
Loslote (?)

Probably innocent
Pitch
Nog
Boro

More innocent than guilty
Nerwen
Eomer
Bes

More guilty than innocent
Brinn
Mac
Wilwa

Probably guilty
Sally
Nienna
Shasta

Guilty
At least two of the previous cathegory and one from either there or somewhere else...

Ha! It goes 3-3-3-3-3! Nice. I'll be back later and I can elaborate on stuff then.

[Boromir88]

Greenie:

Day 1-
#109 agrees with Mnemo that everyone should take a deep breath
#118 wary of Mnemo for popping in being active, but not being very confrontational
#124 will vote for Nog or Mnemo
#132 votes Mnemo (1/3)
Day 2-
#272 explains vote for Mnemo instead of Nog
#324 agrees with Nerwen that Mnemo's had a change in behavior from Day 1 to Day 2. Is confused by it, but still suspicious
#357 will probably vote for Mnemo
#385 votes Mnemo (3/7 and breaks 3-way tie)

All I can say is if Greenie's a wolf, this is an absolutely bravura performance and you would deserve to win. It's tempting to think conspiratorily and say "what a perfectly placed Day 2 vote if Greenie's a wolf, because it breaks the 3-way tie," but all your other posts are consistant and match up.

Plus Greenie and Nerwen point out Mnemo's change in behavior from Day 1 to Day 2. I have no reservations about assuming Greenie is innocent.

Wilwa

Day 2-
#239 good with Nerwen and Mnemo
#346

Mnemo is acting a bit different then yesterday, but I still don't really feel suspicious of her.

Acknowledges Nerwen's point of Mnemo's behavior change, but if that isn't trying to deflect suspicion away from it I don't know what is.
#363

uhmm....I'm definitely gonna vote for someone on this list, cause there's no way I'm bringing a number 8 into the mix. Lommy hasn't stood out to me, Boro makes me uneasy so maybe him, Pitch too though after a quick skim through he was iffy too, Mnemo I'm fairly ok with, Lottie haven't really payed attention too, Zil I don't even know why people are suspicious of him, and Nerwen I'm good with.

Within 40 minutes Mnemo changes from "don't really feel suspicious of her," to "fairly ok with."
#381 votes Boro (ties me with Mnemo), as she previously stated

Not only does wilwa look bad based on her defense of Mnemo, but her suspicions against me are flat out weak. I expect some unfamiliar players to get adjusted to my style, like trom and Bes, but wilwa should be much more familiar with me.

Ya, ya, I know we can all be different, and change and all that jazz, but just look at her reason for voting me. All she says about me several times is I make her uneasy" and then she points out a quote saying my last line looked strange. Chalk-full of vague, negatively connotated words that really don't point to someone being a wolf at all, but everyone thinks "strange" and "odd" = suspicious

Look at #363 too when she's trying to figure out who to vote, Mnemo's got 2 and everyone else has 1. She doesn't want to add another name, so she looks at everyone with votes. Trying to figure out who would be a good one to tie Mnemo with, but by the time you go and vote you realize you've only said I'm making you "uneasy?" Besides, throwing a random "maybe Pitch" in there? I have no reservations about calling wilwa a wolf.

With that, nap time, I'll finish on everyone else tomorrow. Nog, good to see me return to true form?

Edit: crossed with Nerwen