WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

After I'm done with this I'm really going to have to whip you two (sally and Nog) into shape.

What are you trying to prove contesting her reveal? If you're the Limitted seer secret-role than come out with it already, but if you aren't you're not proving anything by going through post-by-post of hers and saying that before the reveal she wasn't making sense to you, therefor you doubt believing her.

Here's the deal.

1. The wolves lost one of their own 1st-lynch. If you think they're going to throw another out there the next day, that's real brass.

2. She disclosed details about the role. When wolves make a fake reveal how much detail do you think they want to get into? That's rhetorical, but I'll say it anyway, as little as possible. She said, I'm a limitted seer, I get one dream on Night-4. That kind of specifics about the role proves (at least to me) she's not a wolf, because when making fake reveals wolves like to stay away from specifics, since they're full of crap.

3. She gets her dream, if she says she's got a wolf, we lynch. That person is a wolf, we're all good. If not we lynch Lottie next day. If she reveals an innocent and Lottie (or the "known" innocent) doesn't get killed soon we lynch her.

Seems pretty cut and dry to me. Like I said, perhaps based on what happened yesterday she may not have been a major suspect today. However, the fact is she was yesterday, we already know she can't be on that often and she doesn't want to risk it...and if she's a special role that has 1-dream, I'm glad she isn't risking it, especially with the way you two are acting about it.

sally, I think you grossly exaggerate some of your analysis of her too, which I will get to eventually, but I'm returning back to the more useful thing I was doing.

[satansaloser2005]

Boro, you have to keep in mind that this is exactly what wolves do; they lie. And if they are in a "cri-ice-is" as Mister Punny would say, they'll take advantage of any....well, advantage. If there's a secret role they can make up as much as they like and no one (except for the secret role, and who believes second reveals most of the time anyway?) could contest them.

And besides, keep this in mind. Who's to say that the secret role isn't a modified wolf? (Think of Shasta's game where there was a seer wolf, etc.) Lottie could be telling the truth and still be evil.

Speaking of whipping into shape, I'm surprised you didn't consider that.


ETA: x'd with Nerwen

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, I'll be busy most/all of the morning so I'll be only commenting in snippets if at all; apologies in advance. I'll be able to vote as far as I know, but this is just an FYI in case I'm kept away from my computer for a while.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And besides, keep this in mind. Who's to say that the secret role isn't a modified wolf? (Think of Shasta's game where there was a seer wolf, etc.) Lottie could be telling the truth and still be evil.

Speaking of whipping into shape, I'm surprised you didn't consider that.

Or maybe it's because I have you pegged as some type of modified cobbler role? One that gets to pick a name every so often to send to the wolves? I'll explain that out-lost-in-the-tundra theory in a bit, because you should know I have your posting interactions with Mnemo down, I just need to finish the rest.

But I will entertain your what-if she's a wolf-seer. If she's wolf-seer it would be totally idiotic to throw herself out there like she did. If she's revealing innocents and not dead after 2 days (as in killed by the wolves dead) then she would be lynched.

There is a fine line between stating your doubts about any reveal, and why, and doing a post-by-post analysis to try and discredit her reveal based on you don't like how she's been playing, or she isn't making sense in her reasons/votes.

[Boromir88]

Oh I kind of forgot the other thing to blow the wolf-seer theory out of the water. There's stated 4 wolves + 2 secret roles. A wolf-seer would still be considered a wolf, thus not one of the secret roles.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, so a bit of a list here from me, I just read over Day 2 stuff, cause I don't have time to go all the way back to Day 1. And lots of Day 2 stuff had quotes from Day 1so I think I managed to get a pretty good understanding of everyone. Lots of this is off memory, so if something is wrong I apologise, and I'm pretty sure I have everyone here:

Nienna: Day 1 she voted for Inzil because she didn't want Mnemo or Mac to be lynched, but she was suspicious of Lommy. She later explained that it was because she wanted her vote to actually contribute to something, and not be a throw-away type thing. Day 2 she mentions she thinks the RoaNog thing was maybe innocent-on-innocent, which is a pretty wide assumption, so nothing really strange there (though Mnemo also thought this). She votes Lommy Day 2, which was in a sense a bit of a throw-away, which is what she was trying to avoid Day 1, and it could have still been an attempt to save Mnemo without looking like she was trying to save Mnemo (since Lottie actually have more votes then Lommy at this time). Over all there are a few things that look kinda bad, but then some that don't. I'm half and half about her right now.

Pitch: After re-reading some of his stuff I see that my considering to vote for him yesterDay was not just random, it was conrete suspicion, but it wasn't out of the blue either. His votes are a little off, Day 1 he tied Mac with Mnemo, and Day 2 he was the 5th to vote for Mnemo, so that could be wolf-on-wolf voting. His posts all seem very hesitant to me, which is why that stood out to me yesterDay. Very agreeable, but also not necessarily unhelpful or anything. So he is making me a bit wary.

Morsul: His self vote was odd, and his posts kinda make me iffy, cause lots of them are just quotes with like 1 sentence responses, which makes him look far more helpful then he might actually be. But nothing really strong is making me suspect him, so I think I'll let him be for now.

Lommy: I'm very torn about. She kept mentioning how she didn't like how "jumpy" people were, but then I found she kinda was, or atleast more flippy-floppy, lots of her sentences kinda sounded like "Well what X did looks really bad, but then again..." and that sort of thing, almost like she was trying to agree with people who found certain players suspicious, while still trying to agree with the people who found those same players innocent (savvy?). Even though her votes were both for Mnemo, it could still be wolf-on-wolf. So she's up there for me.

Boro: I've talked enough about, gonna take my attention elsewhere for now.

Shasta: His votes are weird, he protected Mnemo Day 1, but otherwise I see nothing wrong witih him. So I'm fairly good here.

Lottie: Gonna let her be to test out this reveal of hers.

Sally: Also had weird votes similar to Shasta, I always have a hard time getting a lock on her and usually just let her be, but this time I think I'm gonna keep a closer eye on her.

Nogrod: Mnemo being sure about him and his intense suspect of Roa are about the only things I didn't like here, but Mnemo was just as sure about Roa who was innocent, and the Roa vs Nog thing is fairly normal. Unsure here.

Mac, Nerwen, Eomer, Bes, Brinn & Greenie: all have not really stood out to me, so I'm gonna take that as a positive for now


So overall (lists in no specific order):

Most uneasy
Pitch
Lommy

Kinda uneasy
Nienna
Boro
Sally

Totally unsure
Morsul
Lottie
Nogrod

Good with/under reindeer
Shasta
Mac
Nerwen
Bes
Eomer
Brinn
Greenie

[satansaloser2005]

Or maybe Mnemo was trying to set me up. You missed that one too. *rolls eyes* Boro, darling, you know better than this. If you're grasping at straws this much I'm going to have to start suspecting you.

Also....

"You think you'll trick me into giving something away. It won't work." Because there's no guilt in my little body. So move on and try to trap someone else.


EDIT: x'd since Boro's last

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If she reveals an innocent and Lottie (or the "known" innocent) doesn't get killed soon we lynch her.

When will it be the right Day for that?

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

Originally Posted by Boro

There's stated 4 wolves + 2 secret roles.

Two? For a moment I thought it was my turn to show my ignorance... But then I checked it...

Originally Posted by Rules

1 secret role – will not be revealed on the admin thread and only the chosen player will know about it.

What are you up to Boro?

On another issue...

Okay, we're preparing a small birthday party here (me and Greenie who just came over) and Lommy & Legate will come in a few hours so all three of us will not play too actively during the coming hours. But heh, we have Legate here so maybe we just prevent him from ending the Day so that we can postpone the DL?

[wilwarin538]

Good catch Nog. And I say tie Legate up in a closet to give us more time.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

When will it be the right Day for that?

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

I noticed you've completely not responded to the rest of the post, but chose only to point out one of the few assumptions I'm making about the reveal.

I was mostly referring to sally, the reason I threw you in there because you came right after (and I crossed with wilwa who of course expressed doubts about it all ). As I said though, there is a difference between stating doubt about someone's reveal and going through great lengths to try to discredit it based on shoddy reasons.

If someone says I'm the secret role, this is what it is, and these are the details, I can still understand doubting it, but to make an exaggerated effort to try to discredit the person is not only taking it too far, but just useless. The way I see it, we have another weapon that's being offered and we'd be idiots to not take the chance.

Doub it all you want, it makes no difference to me, but if someone says "I can get a dream tonight, don't kill me," I'm going to listen. This might be a terrible example to use, but if I was in Lottie's shoes based on the previous day and I said it (while disclosing specific details), I'm sure I'd have my doubters, but I will bet my apartment building no one would go through such a large extent to discredit me.

Two? For a moment I thought it was my turn to show my ignorance... But then I checked it...

What are you up to Boro?

Nothing sinister, had a Roa-moment it appears. I could have sworn Day 1 there were people talking about 2 secret roles. Well now that changes my sally-analysis don't it.

[Pitchwife]

Back and reading.

[Nerwen]

Well, then, I can't leave this any later– for once it's hard to decide not because no-one looks really suspicious but because so many people do.

++Nienna

Voting record and general feeling of not-rightness. Sorry, but I'm too tired to put that any better.

Good night and good luck.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I will vote in about 30-40 minutes. I'll probably be back before deadline but I'm not certain so I'm just making sure I get a vote.

I'd rather not vote Nienna, because of the aforementioned slight on her honour. But she is still one of my top 4.

Shasta hasn't really been around. Laying low, eh?

Wilwa and Sally have done little to calm my suspicions of them, so likely one of them.

[A Little Green]

I'm here and caught up, and for once I have so much stuff to say I don't know where to start! I'll probably formulate some ambitiously huge list or something. Beware! *dashes off*

[satansaloser2005]

Here to catch up, but won't be able to say too much alas as mentioned. *dashes*

[A Little Green]

COMFORTABLE WITH:

Boro - I still feel good about him, though his vote record looks a bit flimsy. Actually the thing that worries me about him is that everyone seems to consider him more or less innocentish. Overall I don't find him suspicious. (The flip-flopping goes in the family. )

Loslote - On the subject of her reveal: I'm inclined to believe her for now, or at least check what she says toMorrow. Unlike some, I don't find it weird in the least that she should reveal now if she really has a role like that and is not returning toDay. I find it logical - she's basically making sure (or trying to) that she'll have her dream: she told us not to lynch her and has the ranger protect her at Night.

Morsul - I'm inclined to think him innocent. I understand his self-vote even though I don't much like it.

Macalaure - He feels fine.

Thinlómien - Leaning good. Like Boro, I frowned a bit over her Day 1 "I'd like to vote Mnemo, but then it would be bandwaggoning" -argument (voting someone without wanting them to get lynched is kind of controversial), and I can't shake off the thought she might be an opportunistic wolf. Overall, though, there are many others who look worse than she does. I debated with myself whether to put her here or in the next category.

Nerwen - I feel fairly good about her.


NO IDEA OR IN BETWEEN:

Brinn - Aaaaargh. I'll put her down as super confusing. She's giving me "very innocent" and "rather bad" -signals at once!

Nienna - Contrary to many, I don't find Nienna that suspicious. She's so sneaky and careful as a wolf that to vote twice to save a fellow would sound quite unlike her wolf-self. (Wolf-self. Hehe. Love that word.) I'll put her here, though, because I don't have a strong or even semi-strong feeling for her innocence, either.

Nogrod - Eurgh. Really really don't know - it's ironic, actually: early on, I concentrated too much on him and he was almost the only one I had stuff to say about, and now I have nothing on him whatsoever. Confusing.

Bes - No idea whatsoever.

wilwa - Eurgh I don't know about her either.


WARY OF (I could put everyone here, I guess...):

Eomer - I think his votes could have been wolf-on-wolf, schemed to make him look good: on Day 1 he gives Mnemo her second vote, breaking a huge tie of many people with one vote and putting her on the lead (a risky but not decisive vote); on Day 2 he votes Mnemo again, but since his vote was the 7th it really made no difference. I don't remember ever playing with an Eomerwolf, so I don't know if he's usually a bold one or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was.

Pitchwife - Another aaaaargh. I'm starting to distrust his "Mr. Agreeable" manner (sorry Pitch, it's just such a funny name! ), and I'm not convinced that Mnemo's wolvery clears him. Mnemo's comments on Pitch feeling "off" and even considering voting him on Day 1 could be safe wolf-on-wolf suspicion, easy to call off the next Day as "Day 1 suspicions", yet leaving an impression on having suspected the person. Don't know if Mnemo's Day 2 case on Pitch is too bold to be wolf-on-wolf (I accidentally typed wolf-on-eww!), then again, I don't think Pitch was that suspected on that Day, and it might have been even that Mnemo guessed she'd get lynched and decided to make a fellow look good in passing...

sally - Her votes look pretty bad, and I find the tone of this post quite sinister:

Originally Posted by Sally

Or maybe Mnemo was trying to set me up. You missed that one too. *rolls eyes* Boro, darling, you know better than this. If you're grasping at straws this much I'm going to have to start suspecting you.

Also....

"You think you'll trick me into giving something away. It won't work." Because there's no guilt in my little body. So move on and try to trap someone else.

I'm confused about her banter with Mnemo yesterDay. Still, I have a nagging feeling that she's too easy a catch, somehow - that the real wolves are others than her.

Shasta - His vote record looks very bad. He could be a sneaky wolf. And I don't like the tone of the following quote. At all.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, Mnemo fooled me.

Leaning wolf.

--

I'm now speculating about a pack consisting of Mnemo, Eomer, Pitchwife and Shasta. I'd love to investigate but right now other matters demand my attention... I'm too lazy to preview so this post will probably swarm with typos and grammatical errors but really, who cares.


EDIT: x-ed with a host.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

What I can say is this - Brinniel could be a wolf (not discounting her D1 connection to Nerwen) trying to save a Niennawolf with that next-to-most-recent post of hers. She brings up valid points, but it's almost with a "I'm not sure it's a good idea, but you guys do what you wanna do" attitude.

If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna.

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Well, Brinn, Werewolf can be a simple game. I have reasons for finding the Mnemo voters probably innocent, for now at least. After a few days we can examine more theories but for now, when we still have so many people alive in this expedition, I'm not going to complicate things.

We all have different ways in how we play, so I accept that. I understand why you'd find those who voted to save Mnemo and I don't see leaving the Mnemo voters alone for toDay as a problem...I just don't want to see them fall under the radar or continue to be disregarded later on, because if we did that, we could easily be handing the victory to the wolves.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How do the wolves set up her if she herself makes the votes? Or how do they do that because "plenty of innocents have been lynched that way"?

I don't think Nienna is "automatically guilty" or assume that those voting for Mnemo are obviously innocent. And I'm not sure anyone does that (I see Eomer cleared that up already...). So why do you Brinn wish to make it look like people thought like that?

Yes, Nienna's votes are her own errors, but if she's innocent, I could easily imagine the wolves at Night saying something like, "Pity we lost Mnemo, but look at Nienna's vote record; she could easily be set up for toMorrow's lynch, and with little help from us." The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.

Originally Posted by Sally

And besides, keep this in mind. Who's to say that the secret role isn't a modified wolf?

I doubt that the role is a modified wolf since I agree with Boro that it wouldn't be a separate role, but an extension of a current wolf role. But it's possible the secret role is a cobbler. Or perhaps a cursed...though I think that's less likely.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

When will it be the right Day for that?

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

I don't what to think about Lottie. As Boro said, it would be pretty rash of the wolves to pull a false reveal at this point. However, if Lottie's a wolf it would be her first time, and it's possible she panicked or something. She's done a number of things that don't look too innocent... but then it would be her first time as a gifted too, I think... arrrgh...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nothing sinister, had a Roa-moment it appears. I could have sworn Day 1 there were people talking about 2 secret roles. Well now that changes my sally-analysis don't it.

And there I was waiting for you to reveal as... the extra secret role. More secret than secret!