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Old 12-06-2009, 01:00 PM   #1
Thinlómien
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Megalysis

Analysing everybody but myself, Loslote and Pitchspoon, partly based on my own research and partly on summaries by others...

Boromir88
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: hardly any interaction
interactions with Pitch: very little interaction to point to any direction
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Inzil, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: his slight interaction with the wolves don't point at any direction, it could be avoiding interaction or just random. His voting record could be suspected - on the two first Days it's pretty terrible and whatever Mac says, him starting the Wilwa-wagon yesterDay doesn't make him look particularily innocent. If Wilwa is a wolf, of course, then it's different, but I'm not making that assumption (yet). Anyway, his general manner seems to me very innocent, so his slightly questionable voting record (especially as he has aknowledged it himself) or the lack of interaction with known wolves (especially as that doesn't even suggest anything per se) doesn't sway it. Far more innocent than guilty, but if he keeps doing bad stuff, I might have to reconsider.

Eomer of the Rohirrim
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: granted, he put her on the lead with votes on Day1, but all his suspicions could've been wolf-on-wolf, she was good with him
interactions with Pitch: Eomer wavers on Pitch until puts him into the innocent category because of his interactions with Mnemo and then he stays there
voting record: Day1 Mnemo, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Sally
conclusions: I'm quite torn about his interactions with the known wolves. It would all be quite bold (pursuing another fellow and declaring another innocent), but the problem is that Eomer is capable of that. His voting record looks quite good, but then again it is not too good to exclude him from wolvery. He's definitely still on my suspect list, but I think I'm going to drop aggressiveness against him for now because there's nothing really incriminating in his posts.

Morsul
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: looks slightly as if Mnemo could've been casting some shoddy wolf-on-wolf suspicion on him
interactions with Pitch: some buddiness (but is that merely because they started wwing at the same time?)
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Morsul
conclusion: now this is interesting... Morsul's interactions with the wolves look a bit bad and his voting record wavers between good and bad. The Day2 vote was quite fishy, but I'm not sure a wolf-Morsul would vote himself... It's tough, I don't suspect him really but he's definitely fallen from the "tsut tsut innocent baby" category to somewhere lower...

Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)

Nogrod
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: she seems to trust him, he doesn't trust her
interactions with Pitch: goes with the popular trend of suspecting Pitch and then letting go of it
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: his interactions with the wolves don't really tell us much: they seem both innocent and lupine at the same time. I still don't like his frenzy-attack on Roa on Day1 and his vote for Mnemo didn't matter. Also if at least one of Sally&Wilwa is a wolf, he definitely bears watching. For now, I wouldn't be too aggressively for bashing him, but I'm definitely watching him.

Macalaure
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: not much, but slightly positive
interactions with Pitch: Mac flip-flops on Pitch in an eyebrow-raising manner, but Pitch gave him the third vote on Day1
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: ok, I think I'm dropping my suspicions of him for now. Giving Mnemo the fourth vote on Day2 and Pitch trying to get him lynched speak for his innocence quite clearly, whatever fishiness there is here or there.

sally
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: rather fishy friendliness and banter (although as we all know they are RL friends)
interactions with Pitch: slight suspicion from her towards him, he votes her on Day3
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Lottie, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: if there wasn't Pitch's vote for Sally (like Mac said he could've voted Nienna based on what he had said before), I would be very very worried of Sally - trying to save Mnemo and having wolf-on-wolf like suspicions of Pitch - but now I guess I have to consider her quite innocent.

Nerwen
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: low
interactions with Mnemo: she did make a case against her
interactions with Pitch: she considered him innocent based on Mnemo's guilt
voting record: Day1 Mac (didn't count), Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: her consistent suspicion against Mnemo looks good, exonerating Pitch based on that doesn't (although half of the village did that). Looks more innocent than guilty, but I don't like it that people take her innocence for granted.

Bes
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: not much
interactions with Pitch: some mutual suspicion
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 no vote, Day3 Lottie
conclusion: well, this doesn't sway my opinion to any direction. Generally he seems so confused that if he's a wolf I think he's fellows would've already helped him out and clarified the rules for him.

Shasta
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: he defended her
interactions with Pitch: not much except some late-emergent suspicion against him on Day3
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Nerwen, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: it really looks quite bad, but possibly too bad to be bad.

wilwa
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: Wilwa defended Mnemo when the situation was really open
interactions with Pitch: she almost voted him but sticked to her suspicion of Boro
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Boro, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: I can totally understand why people suspect her, it indeed looks quite bad. The only problem with suspecting her is the same that I have with suspecting Shasta: it looks too obvious.

So...

innocent
Bes
Mac


innocentish
Boro
Nerwen
Sally


in the middle
Eomer
Morsul
Nogrod


suspiciousish
- (interesting...)

suspicious
Brinn
Wilwa
Shasta



edit: xed with the five last posts
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:21 PM   #2
Pitchwife
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Lommy, while you're on, this is the moment to tell you that marine biologist's joke I promised you before we set out, lest I forget. (If you don't get it, ask a Brit to explain.)

The squid had a few too many last night and is having a huge hangover. His brain (or whatever squids use instead) hurts, he's feeling squeemish, he can't control his tentacles properly, he's having a really wretched day.
Swimming by comes a dolphin, he says to the squid: "Poor you, you look really bad, but I tell you what, all you need is some fresh water. Hang on to my fin, I'll take you up near the surface where there's more oxygen - that'll do you good."
So the squid hangs on to the dolphin's fin, and the dolphin takes him up near the surface where they meet a shark. Says the dolphin to the shark, "Hi mate, here's the sick squid I owe you!"
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:25 PM   #3
Thinlómien
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Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
That was a silly joke, Pitch.
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:28 PM   #4
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Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.Thinlómien is wading through the Dead Marshes.
++Pitch
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:31 PM   #5
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*snickers* Maybe we should keep around.



Nah.
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:35 PM   #6
Shastanis Althreduin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
This is interesting. The reason for suspecting you (at least for me) is mostly your horrible voting record (yesterDay it was just sketchy, now it's pretty evil).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
I believe I did explain my suspicions yesterDay. And then your actions at the end of the Day looks awfully sinister which is why I'm even more worried about you.
*snickers* I just can't win. Let's look at things this way, since apparently what makes me evil is my vote for Nienna. I'll ask the same thing I did about my Nerwen vote, when people jumped on that - since when is it wolfish to vote someone you suspect? Nienna's voting record was even worse than mine at that point, having voted to save Mnemo twice. I'm sorry she was innocent, but I'm not sorry I voted her.
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Old 12-06-2009, 01:37 PM   #7
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Note: I'm going to be on the road for an hour. I should be back about half an hour before deadline. In case I'm not -

++Pitch
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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Old 12-09-2009, 05:31 PM   #8
Thinlómien
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Quoting my old summary post and making comments on it

Quote:
Boromir88
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: hardly any interaction
interactions with Pitch: very little interaction to point to any direction
voting record: Day1 no vote, Day2 Inzil, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: his slight interaction with the wolves don't point at any direction, it could be avoiding interaction or just random. His voting record could be suspected - on the two first Days it's pretty terrible and whatever Mac says, him starting the Wilwa-wagon yesterDay doesn't make him look particularily innocent. If Wilwa is a wolf, of course, then it's different, but I'm not making that assumption (yet). Anyway, his general manner seems to me very innocent, so his slightly questionable voting record (especially as he has aknowledged it himself) or the lack of interaction with known wolves (especially as that doesn't even suggest anything per se) doesn't sway it. Far more innocent than guilty, but if he keeps doing bad stuff, I might have to reconsider.
It really bugs me, because my gut says he's innocent and my reason says he's guilty. Just look at the evidence, it's pretty bad. But then again, his manner is exactly like it is when he's innocent. Crap.

Quote:
Morsul
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: looks slightly as if Mnemo could've been casting some shoddy wolf-on-wolf suspicion on him
interactions with Pitch: some buddiness (but is that merely because they started wwing at the same time?)
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Morsul
conclusion: now this is interesting... Morsul's interactions with the wolves look a bit bad and his voting record wavers between good and bad. The Day2 vote was quite fishy, but I'm not sure a wolf-Morsul would vote himself... It's tough, I don't suspect him really but he's definitely fallen from the "tsut tsut innocent baby" category to somewhere lower...
Well to be honest, he's been a bit under my radar. The evidence could mean he's guilty, but then again, I'm still unsure if he'd really have the guts to self-vote as wolf.

Quote:
Brinn
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: almost nothing
interactions with Pitch: hardly anything, except that Pitch flip-flopped on Brinn's innocence
voting record: Day1 Nerwen, Day2 Loslote, Day3 Sally
conclusion: her interactions with the wolves could be interpreted either way. Combined with her not-so-good-looking voting record, it really makes me wonder. It is notable what Mac wondered about her votes. She's really now near the top of my suspicion list if not there, her manner has been kind of disturbing all the time and all this evidence is not making her look any more innocent. (And I can totally see a wolf Brinn protecting an innocent Nienna.)
The way Brinn reacted to my suspicion of her was sort of really defensive, which makes me wonder if she's just an innocent offended to be suspected on stupid (?) reasons, or whether she's a jumpy wolf. I definitely didn't like her opportunistic vote for me yesterDay, but that could be just because I don't like it when people suspect me when I'm innocent (or guilty, for that matter and actually I do like being suspected a bit because otherwise it's boring). I still think there's something wrong with her manner, though.

Quote:
Nogrod
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: she seems to trust him, he doesn't trust her
interactions with Pitch: goes with the popular trend of suspecting Pitch and then letting go of it
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: his interactions with the wolves don't really tell us much: they seem both innocent and lupine at the same time. I still don't like his frenzy-attack on Roa on Day1 and his vote for Mnemo didn't matter. Also if at least one of Sally&Wilwa is a wolf, he definitely bears watching. For now, I wouldn't be too aggressively for bashing him, but I'm definitely watching him.
I'm taking his word for making the decisive vote on Mnemo, but knowing him, that doesn't make him actually look much better. Also, him starting to suspect me recently makes him look bad in my eyes: it feels (sorry to overuse the word) opportunistic and sort of also it feels like he's trying to pressure me to do something, maybe give up on him and Sally?

Quote:
sally
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: medium
interactions with Mnemo: rather fishy friendliness and banter (although as we all know they are RL friends)
interactions with Pitch: slight suspicion from her towards him, he votes her on Day3
voting record: Day1 Roa, Day2 Lottie, Day3 Wilwa
conclusion: if there wasn't Pitch's vote for Sally (like Mac said he could've voted Nienna based on what he had said before), I would be very very worried of Sally - trying to save Mnemo and having wolf-on-wolf like suspicions of Pitch - but now I guess I have to consider her quite innocent.
Well it's the same: her record looks bad except for the extremely contradictory vote of Pitch's against her.

Quote:
Nerwen
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: low
interactions with Mnemo: she did make a case against her
interactions with Pitch: she considered him innocent based on Mnemo's guilt
voting record: Day1 Mac (didn't count), Day2 Mnemo, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: her consistent suspicion against Mnemo looks good, exonerating Pitch based on that doesn't (although half of the village did that). Looks more innocent than guilty, but I don't like it that people take her innocence for granted.
I don't know, I want to hear more of her.
Quote:
Bes
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: very low
interactions with Mnemo: not much
interactions with Pitch: some mutual suspicion
voting record: Day1 Mac, Day2 no vote, Day3 Lottie
conclusion: well, this doesn't sway my opinion to any direction. Generally he seems so confused that if he's a wolf I think he's fellows would've already helped him out and clarified the rules for him.
I don't know... what I said about his confusion still holds, but I definitely didn't like his vote for me yesterDay because it wasn't grounded in any way and it didn't make any sense to me.

Quote:
Shasta
current overall suspiciousness in my opinion: high
interactions with Mnemo: he defended her
interactions with Pitch: not much except some late-emergent suspicion against him on Day3
voting record: Day1 Inzil, Day2 Nerwen, Day3 Nienna
conclusion: it really looks quite bad, but possibly too bad to be bad.
I'm currently thinking his innocent, even with some of these bad facts.

I seem to have reached the stage of paranoia where I suspect everybody (except for Shasta)... the good news is that almost whoever gets lynched, I'm happy.


edit: xed with Nogrod
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