WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[satansaloser2005]

Wow. Definitely not what I'd expected.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Eomer? Not who I'd have expected. I was going to look at him today, too... well, I can still look at my two top suspects, Mac and Boro, and so I shall.

Edit: X'd with Sally. How dare you steal my phrasing!

[satansaloser2005]

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?


ETA: Neener neener, my precious. Your kung fu is not strong.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?

Well, both, but in this case more like the former. Sorry, corrected now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, why doesn't Eomer have a role? Legate, are you absent-minded or tricksy?


ETA: Neener neener, my precious. Your kung fu is not strong.

ESP beats kung fu any day, my little Labrador [/theatre reference].

Or the Force, for that matter.

[Thinlómien]

I'm surprised too, to be honest.

With his amount of gathered suspicion, I think they thought him gifted. Or then they were being tricksy.


edit: xed with mod and Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, both, but in this case more like the former. Sorry, corrected now.

Heh. Okay; I just didn't want to jump to conclusions if it was an ommission or let it slide if it wasn't, so I decided to ask.


Biggest. Headache. Ever. I'll be taking a nap after work and then I'll get back over here.

[Boromir88]

[sarcasm] *shocked* [/sarcasm]

What's with the shock? Maybe he was looking slightly suspicious, but I doubt he was going to be a serious suspect for a while...with all the other suspicious looking people out here.

I'm kind of surprised it wasn't Lottie, but it's not all that surprising if she only gets one dream. The wolves are risking keeping a known innocent around, and trying to trick us into thinking she's a wolf, because she's not dead. Although, I'm not sure it's a good idea, because I'm not falling for it, as far as I'm concerned Lottie's a known innocent. If she only gets one dream, it looks like they will try to take out bigger threats.

I'm still feeling good about Nerwen, Mac, and Nog. I'm not sure about sally or Morsul. I need to take closer looks at Lommy, Brinn, and Bes (based on the Day Nienna was lynched - it might not have been the worst loss to suffer, but there was a lot of tricky looking behavior towards the DL) and Shasta + wilwa remain my top suspects.

[Nogrod]

Actually I was not that surprised... At least I can't right now remember anyone suspecting him heavily yesterDay - did someone even mention him?

How come you say he was so much suspected Lommy? I have quite a different view of it.

But be what it may, yesterDay's voting probably is kind of a store of mainly futile information.

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

Well, she gave us a wolf and I would say we should search for the remaining two elsewhere for a Day or two... but if we don't get them we should lynch her before the numbers start evening out. Just to be on the safe side.

Okay. The good news: the deaths are 6:2 (of which two are resignments, so actually 4:2 gamingwise) but we're having still 10:2. Pretty good ratios, I'd say. Juts keeping with this ratio we win. And even if we had help there looking back we now have all the material to read to guide us further.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, but some people are suspected even less...

like Bes or Nerwen...

or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

So, what am I trying to say?

That I'm surprised Eomer died, because I would've assumed to find Bes, Nerwen or Mac to be found dead, or possibly Nog or Boro (or Sally actually) or even Loslote. Eomer is one of the ones who I thought is certainly not dying, I would've seen my own death as more probable than his (at least some people think I'm innocent while more or less everyone seems to be suspecting Eomer to some degree).

And that the slightly prolonged survival of all us "veteran loudmouths" makes me wonder if we others are alive mostly/partly for cover. That has happened many times before. I'm far from convinced that this is true, but it makes me more wary of my fellow "veteran loudmouths" ie Boro, Mac and Nog.

*is making process in learning to phrase things more clearly*


edit: xed with Nogrod

[Boromir88]

I would also like to point out, before heading out to dinner, Greenie the day before, Eomer last night...looks like they're going for the ones who voted Mnemo twice. This leaves Lommy still alive, either the wolves have deemed you easier to turn suspicion against, you could be next, or you're a wolf trying to make yourself look better.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How come you say he was so much suspected Lommy? I have quite a different view of it.

I thought he was more or less on everybody's guilty list, although hardly ever the top suspect...? I can't recall anyone saying he's probably innocent, but I recall many people suspecting him at least a little.

Originally Posted by Boro

I would also like to point out, before heading out to dinner, Greenie the day before, Eomer last night...looks like they're going for the ones who voted Mnemo twice. This leaves Lommy still alive, either the wolves have deemed you easier to turn suspicion against, you could be next, or you're a wolf trying to make yourself look better.

Interesting thoughts. I never thought of it that way. But I doubt I'm going to be next after you said that (...thanks? ). And I hardly need suspicion "turned" against me since already quite a few villagers suspect me - but if I'm right about what people said about Eomer yesterDay, it doesn't make much sense either. And if I was a wolf, I think that would be a rather stupid to make myself look better because reading your post it seems to make me look "worse" (at least from my own perspective, but I'm the only one who knows my role so maybe it affects other people differently, who knows).

[Morsul the Dark]

here and reading a lot to catch up on...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

the slightly prolonged survival of all us "veteran loudmouths" makes me wonder if we others are alive mostly/partly for cover. That has happened many times before. I'm far from convinced that this is true, but it makes me more wary of my fellow "veteran loudmouths" ie Boro, Mac and Nog.

I have been thinking about the same... although I might add Nerwen to the pile...

I try to go to sleep a bit earlier today as I'm in Bronchitis - but as a result of that I'm having a day off from work tomorrow and might use some of the time to actually read and post here more (sadly I have to read a bunch of exams as well even if I have a sick-leave).

I'll stick around a while though if I can come up with any good idea where to look at before going to sleep.

[wilwarin538]

Eomer doesn't surprise me too much, I don't see him as having had that much suspicion, maybe more general but I don't think it was to the point where he was at much risk of being lynched. What Boro said about all those who voted twice for Mnemo being the kill choices makes sense. And what Lommy said about her suprise that Mac and Nog aren't dead yet, I see what you're saying, but perhaps this was on purpose? The wolves may just want us to think to ourselves "Wow, what kind of dumb wolves would keep those guys alive this long, they much be guilty", in order for us to waste our lynches on useful players. Though I'm not saying it's not possible they're guilty, just that it isn't really all that surprising that their still alive.

About Lottie, it does seem likely that she is indeed innocent, since she was right about Pitch and no one else has come forward about having the special role. BUT, there is still a chance that she is a sneaky wolf who gave up a fellow to make herself look good, and that the person who really does have the secret role either won't reveal because their gift has not come into effect yet, or they can't reveal, or they're dead and there role just wasn't revealed. So there are a large number of possibilities, and not all of them point towards her innocence. Therefore we should eventually lynch her if a few days go by with no success, just on the chance that she wasn't being all that truthful.

Sorry about my disappearing act yesterday, computer issues made it tough for me to come on. I should be around far more toDay, in between study times.

x'ed with Nog

[Morsul the Dark]

Taking Nienna's approach no long quotes here!
Bes

Bes 39
Doesn't want anyone to vote... why? Although we now know the votes were basically just a Formality...

then a bunch of posts like "Here and Reading..." "Sorry not on too much..."

Bes 156 Take Inzil's arguments and votes Mac...

Bes 252
Admits to backpedalling... Newbie mistake or cleverly playing Newbie card (I did it my first game...)

Bes 262 Makes a summary of Mac's post... maybe to defend her vote for him though she earlier admitted to not thinking it through sounds like misdirection to me.

Bes 416 Makes a reference to not being around That phrase always strikes me as an odd one always a slight "I'm not a wolf I Promise" statement.

Bes 470 Pulls a Mac, "Good Points against me" then goes on to denounce Lotie's reveal.

Bes 512 Continues on Lottie and votes for her... at least she's consistent...

A couple of newbie posts follow... I think she may be playing that card to its full potential.

Bes 671 Why would you try not to vote Pitch?

Lastly: Bes 673 Everything someone says or doesn't say makes them suspicious... including you Bes... Including you

[Nogrod]

Hey Morsul, I think Bes is a he... (not the first time in this game)

But good notions - the last ones I mean. He really could be seen trying to avoid the inevitable...

[Bes]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Taking Nienna's approach no long quotes here!
Bes

Bes 39
Doesn't want anyone to vote... why? Although we now know the votes were basically just a Formality...

then a bunch of posts like "Here and Reading..." "Sorry not on too much..."

Bes 156 Take Inzil's arguments and votes Mac...

Bes 252
Admits to backpedalling... Newbie mistake or cleverly playing Newbie card (I did it my first game...)

Bes 262 Makes a summary of Mac's post... maybe to defend her vote for him though she earlier admitted to not thinking it through sounds like misdirection to me.

Bes 416 Makes a reference to not being around That phrase always strikes me as an odd one always a slight "I'm not a wolf I Promise" statement.

Bes 470 Pulls a Mac, "Good Points against me" then goes on to denounce Lotie's reveal.

Bes 512 Continues on Lottie and votes for her... at least she's consistent...

A couple of newbie posts follow... I think she may be playing that card to its full potential.

Bes 671 Why would you try not to vote Pitch?

Lastly: Bes 673 Everything someone says or doesn't say makes them suspicious... including you Bes... Including you

39: A question is not the same as a desire. People harp on this post a lot, and at this point it's starting to make me giggle. People explained why there's reliably a vote every day, even if not everyone gets a vote in, and it made sense. You may have noticed I voted that Day.

262: Just a note, male. Short, monosyllabic handles tend to be difficult to read gender cues from, I know.

671: Because I still didn't feel right about Lottie; I had every reason, from my own point of view, to suspect Lottie of mischief. A lot of people still do suspect Lottie for that reveal, I'm noticing. Of course I'm going to feel crap about potentially lynching an innocent. We know now that Pitch was a wolf, but at the time my and several other votes were "So, this person is kind of suspicious, and Lottie says she's a Seer. Let's throw him/her under the bus as a litmus test for her sincerity." That would have looked just lovely for me if he/she turned out to be innocent, wouldn't it?

673: Yes, that would be the point of the post.

I don't really feel a need/desire to correct the other portions of the post analysis.

Edit: Crossed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

Bes! I think the most important post by you was this vote-post for Lottie you made:

Originally Posted by Bes #512

As usual, I don't have much time today. I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.

It is a valid thing to question Lottie's revealment - I did it and some others did it. And I had already voiced my suspicion that the wolves might wish to make a "free kill" making the ranger protect one of their own... That's all fine and dandy. Even if I don't quite understand what you mean by:

then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

If you mean a Night kill instead of "lynching" I might understand but otherwise I lost track with you there.

But what is important here IMO is that we just couldn't waste the opportunity to check whether what Lottie said was right. Actually we could have lynched her first and see what role she was given and then lynch Pitch toDay, but why to do it that way? If Lottie has the secret role the wolves would like to gamble on that as they wouldn't know what the role is - if she was a cobbler for instance, then the suspicions laid by her on Pitchie could be downplayed the next Day. So from an ordo perspective checking Pitch first was a clear marching order.

Yes, I do not say that Pitch being a wolf cleared Lottie. On the contrary. It might be one of these tragic stories where a community must check one of it's helpers just to be sure before the end - to be sure a sneaky wolf didn't fool us. But that's a different question.

What I sees suspicious of you Bes is that the way you wanted it to go was the way the wolves would have wanted it to go; to lynch Lottie first. I see no reason an innocent would wish to suggest that order but could see the wolves to wish that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just a thought - the main reason Lottie dreamt of Pitch was the fact that Pitch was pushing for her dream to be used on Bes. After the wolf-on-wolfery between Pitch and Mnemo, I'm not sure Pitch would set up yet another of his comrades that way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mac:

Let's document Mac's thoughts on Pitch.

#27 - "innocent feel"
#57 - Possible suspicious comment regarding the Boroversy
#112 - from "innocent" to "unsure"
#139 - has Pitch in the "I would like to avoid voting" category
#155 - flops back to "innocent"
#217 - would like to take a closer look at Pitch. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Mnemo say the exact same thing?
#274 - uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch as others are now doing.
#313 - back to thinking Pitch innocent.
#460 - vacillates on Pitch, again finding him innocent due to Inzil's death (huh?)
#481 - still feels good about Pitch here.

This is the main reason I suspect Mac. I'm unsure how I'll feel about him once I've taken a closer look at Mac by himself, but until I manage that he's a possible vote for me.

On Boro:

Originally Posted by Boro

Even though if there are 4 of them, this is a large group of scientists, and scheming to lose a wolf on the 1st-lynch makes wolf-on-wolf less likely.

Then, later down in the same post:

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm calling yesterday Day 2, and the previous Day 1. On Day 1, Mnemo acquired 3-votes, so it is likely they all recognized she was going to be in possible danger. So, going into Day 2, even though there was no lynch, she and her buddies knew she could be a viable lynch. Therefor, I find it more likely that a wolf could have voted for her, or applied suspicion on her at some point in the day, in an attempt to make him/herself look better.

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

Originally Posted by Boro

If you weren't all that suspicious of Inzil in the first place, then why jump on Nerwen's vote?

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Originally Posted by Boro

Then his Day 2 vote is suspicious, not in wilwa's way, but by adding in another name to the pot a Shasta-wolf could have been hoping Mnemo would have gotten lost in the mix of names.

I was suspicious ofNerwen, so I voted for her. I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

Originally Posted by Boro

2. She disclosed details about the role. When wolves make a fake reveal how much detail do you think they want to get into? That's rhetorical, but I'll say it anyway, as little as possible.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.


In hindsight, what I have on Boro isn't as bad as I thought it was - mainly his contradictory statements about Mnemo and wolf-on-wolfery, and his vote for Inzil over Eomer (both innocent). Still, he's a suspect of mine.


I'm also suspicious of Wilwa, but I'm afraid that might be groupthink. I'll do my best to take a look at her as well.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No one around but me? This never happens.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No one around but me? This never happens.

*waves*

But I'm not good for much right now. I've been looking over the thread and will hopefully post something a bit later.

You are not alone.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Loslote]

Oh, and I will vote for either Lommy or Wilwa toDay, but not until much closer to DL, I think.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally: (busy busy loooooong analysis yeesh...)
(For the record after this my earlier suspicion of Shasta has lessened.

Sally 79 Won't be around much fair enough.

Sally 82 Will try to vote doesn't want us to wait up though... Why? would your vote sway a tie to an innocent?

Sally 153 Wants Vote Count... not much here

Sally 169 Defends Mnem Suspects Shasta Votes Roa

Sally 218 Doing Laundry can't post

Sally 236 Again goes after Shasta and go figure too busy to post... For the record Sally I do not base my suspicio on this I myself had some recent time issues... So not suspicious because of it.. yet

Sally 278 responds to Boro makes sense to me. Don't lynch someone just to see what's inside.

A few Chatty posts... This particular bit of posting did and still does irk me somewhat says constantly no time finally found some spends it on nonsense like rhyming her name...

Sally 292 Does an analysis... I feel just to satisfy me... Mainly because It's followed up by more chatting posts...

Sally 359 List Eomer Wolf? nope... Mnem dunno... Wolf... Pitch Possible wolf hey 1 out of 3 ain't bad...

Sally 373 Again refuses to explain herself based on time... I'm sorry but at this point i begins to feel like an excuse as opposed to an inconvenience...

Sally 386 "Explanations" mostly based on feelings...

I'll call this Halftime on Sally's Analysis work on it more shortly... Brain hurts...

[Loslote]

Just noting, when I saw that Morsul had posted, my first thought was, "Wait, he's in this game?" It was quickly followed up by, "Of course he is, but he's probably innocent."

Maybe I'm passing him over too much...going from suspecting him just because I always do to not noticing him at all...potentially a problem, but now that I give it some thought, I don't think so... He's not acting like Morwolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

Point taken. However, as she repeats it again later, I'm pretty sure it's intentional.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Point taken. However, as she repeats it again later, I'm pretty sure it's intentional.

If she's a wolf, she's hardly going to do it now.

[Macalaure]

I'm here, btw. I'm doing an analysis on Nogrod which will probably take half of the Day. I'm up to page 8/19, and it looks very inconclusive this far.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm here and I have read everything and I honestly just don't have anything to say. I seem to be a bit unable to get a grip on the game, undoubtedly partly because I haven't been dedicating it as much time as I could have, due to seeing friends etc.

Here's the post; # 151 if you want to look at the whole thing.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally Part 2

Sally 391 Why she'll probably vote Lottie...

Sally 396 Actually may have called this head on... I say may have because not entirely convinced on the "reveal" yet.

Sally 404 Secons the lottie vote against bandwagonning Mnem.. but no problem bandwagonning Lottie?

Sally 414 From the Wolf inside you?
Sally 422 Predicting?

Sally 431 Hmm... Defensive against our innocent Eomer...

Post 450 Promises more commentary... again...

Sally 484 Another promise of Analysis with a nonsense defense...

Sally 487 Analysis... Long Quotes short explanations girl after my own heart

493 response to Boro... gives possible strategy for wolves... but not diffenitive...

494 Busy again...

500 "Boro you know better..." after all sally you've contributed so much over the course of the... oh nevermind...

515 Sally takes on Shasta once again...

516 Dashes off again...

Part 2 done await part 3...

Seriously Sally you post too much

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I wish I had time to reread all for myself, but that's not case due to my bad timing (again). Anyway, I trust Wilwa's version of Mnemo's sayings, especially if Nerwen verifies it. And I guess it's ok to trust voting summaries too.

~~~

And here comes a quick list about my current feelings

Innocent
Greenie
Morsul
Loslote (?)

Probably innocent
Pitch
Nog
Boro

More innocent than guilty
Nerwen
Eomer
Bes

More guilty than innocent
Brinn
Mac
Wilwa

Probably guilty
Sally
Nienna
Shasta

Guilty
At least two of the previous cathegory and one from either there or somewhere else...

Ha! It goes 3-3-3-3-3! Nice. I'll be back later and I can elaborate on stuff then.

Interesting. She trusts Wilwa's analysis but puts her in the probably guilty category, and puts Pitchie in the probably innocent category. Hm...

[Morsul the Dark]

Part 3... *sigh*

Sally 518 Discusses Lottie and Bes...

Post 524 explains why although suspecting her will save lottie for now...

You know what... for such a frequent poster Sally doesn't contribute much outside of "Not time to post"

526- no time...
528-now to analyze
529-would lynch wilwa if she's best option... No really?
534- granted sarcastic but annoys me

for the record I'm doing quick version right now because I've run out of steam on this analysis...

[Morsul the Dark]

still another page in her recent posts to go through but I have my conclusion...

Sally Posts Constantly one "Not being able to post" which in my opinion equals... I can't give away my fellow packmates but I can't just obviously avoid contributing I don't have time sounds better...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul

still another page in her recent posts to go through but I have my conclusion...

Sally Posts Constantly one "Not being able to post" which in my opinion equals... I can't give away my fellow packmates but I can't just obviously avoid contributing I don't have time sounds better...

Or she might not have time to post.

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

[Morsul the Dark]

ehausted from looking at Sally's posts... fine.... I'll look at them....<yawn

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Or she might not have time to post.

However, that last page she did have time, and I personally think she made good points.

My goodness what a novel idea!


And indeed I have been busy; I get loads of time but only in chunks big enough to read, say I've read and have a thought or two, and then dash off again.


Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW.