T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Nogrod]

So.

Being a seer in a game where half the village have you as their primary target and have two seers among them to help isn't the easiest one. Add to that the possibility of more than two deaths by Night in this small village... and the fact that you can't "play the hide and seek" up to the last hours as the DL is impossible.

Sorry about partly spoiling the Day. (I'm sure you have things to discuss the rest of the Day but it's a bit anti-climax if the seer reveals early on D1.)

But we have one wolf there and I'll get one more dream.

Also if the ranger protects me the coming Night, both wolf-teams need to attack me the next Night and at least one innocent death is avoided. They can't afford trusting the other team would do the work for them while they might kill one of them. The balance of the mutual threat that is called.


EDIT: X'd with everyone since my last post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, for now... I really have to vote now and then I have to go to sleep and I have to wake up in six hours from now, which is disgusting, so I am going to just do this short and vote. Which is horrible, as I would need something like three more hours to go through everybody's posts again and recheck. So very, very, very, very brief review of my feelings about people now:

Red area - total Wolvery: not really anybody in particular, but well. I guess no can do.

Orange area: Pitchwife (well! Believe me or not, it's all this generally-Mr.-Agreeable stuff, and personal paranoia as stated above), Nerwen (getting worried all the time)

Yellow area - low threat: Inzil, Nogrod, Shasta - basically with all of these, would need to look at them better!!! No time now.

Green area - basically meaning nothing to give any strong reasons to suspect, or reasons at all: Kitanna (some reasonable words), Sally (happy-go-sometimes nothing, but sometimes something to say), Wilwa (excusing some confusing-looking things with her momentary state, otherwise no reasons to suspect), TEW (nothing in particular)

Slightly more greener area, i.e. more inclined to think as innocents (okay, now I see I should have chosen to distribute the color scheme somewhat differently, but whatever): Lommy (genuine-looking), Morsul (looking like his innocent self), Boro (honestly reasonable-looking)

Totally green area: nobody

Okay, so be it. I have no time to think here more about this and go though stuff, I really need to go to sleep and this timing just didn't fit well with me. My best suspect be

++Pitchwife

Although to be really sort of "reassured", I would have liked to go through all posts again, but I can't do that. Okay, good night, village. Hope to see lot of us toMorrow still.

EDITNOTE: Okay! It took me a long while to sum my thoughts on this post and anyway it wasn't enough time, but it took long time for some things to happen on the thread, but I am not going to react on that! I have to go to sleep! Too late, incredible, why? I cannot think about it now. Nogrod! Why? Okay. I can't think about it now. GOOD NIGHT. Posting and voting as I have decided before. No other chances. (This effectively means, crossed with all the Nogrod stuff!!!!)

[Nogrod]

Love you my little wolfling! You sounded so earnest I almost had to check back I was right...

But to answer your trial of rebuttal...

As Wilwa says (and as I told in my last post), it makes perfect sense.

The innocent seer has quite a few choices with one wolf bagged at this point. The chances of getting killed by Night are considerably high, there are two baddie-seers after you (who get to know your gift, mind you!), just hinting about the wolf might be ignored by the ranger or by the village the next Day - and the dream would be lost ... also I can possibly save one innocent life on N3 with revealing now, etc.


RDIT: X'd with everything after Wilwa...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

both wolf-teams need to attack me the next Night and at least one innocent death is avoided. They can't afford trusting the other team would do the work for them while they might kill one of them. The balance of the mutual threat that is called.

*is impressed*

Originally Posted by Sally

Like I said, I don't know which one he is, but I also don't know why he'd lie. My personal guess is that he's a wolf seer who has found you to be part of the other pack (or has dreamt you as a gifted and wants to eliminate you, but you'd have said something I think) and is willing to give himself up to help his pack eliminate one of the enemy.

Why would he do that? He could just kill her at Night and then get to live longer. That certainly can not make sense to you.

Originally Posted by Boro

But I'm not sure why he would reveal Day 1? Ranger should protect him for another dream, but there are a lot of wolves, and if he IS the seer he will have to explain more than popping in and going

*is boggled*

I don't get why people are so confused by this. He's NOG, I'll be honest that if I was Nog I would do the same thing, because I think he's once of the biggest threats in WW, and especially in a game like this he is a likely Night kill choice. So Nogseer finds a wolf, knows he could possibily get Night killed before he could give us this info, knows how important it is to get wolves early because there are so many, and reveals knowing he will still get atleast 1 more dream.

It makes sense.

x'ed with a bunches, head hurts

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

*is boggled*

I don't get why people are so confused by this. He's NOG, I'll be honest that if I was Nog I would do the same thing, because I think he's once of the biggest threats in WW, and especially in a game like this he is a likely Night kill choice. So Nogseer finds a wolf, knows he could possibily get Night killed before he could give us this info, knows how important it is to get wolves early because there are so many, and reveals knowing he will still get atleast 1 more dream.

I was under the impression with 6 wolves the Seer would try to stay alive to get as many as possible. I grant perhaps in this format, that would be hard and more beneficial for Nog to be doing what he just did.

I'm not enthusiastically jumping on board because it doesn't make "perfect sense" as you claim. Nog was in no trouble, and yes he's a likely wolf target...but seriously you can say everyone is a wolf target! Lommy, Legate, Pitch, Inzil, sally, Izzy myself, you...wilwa I swear everyone has been killed by the wolves on Night 1 before. So, no, I don't completely by the "I'm going to die Night 1 so I have to," not without properly thinking and hearing more from Nog than "I'm the seer Lommy's a wolf."

I can think of many scenarios where a wolf-Nogrod, with a ranger!wolf in his pack, could possibly benefit from a move like this. If not only for the confusion and headache it is going to cause!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not enthusiastically jumping on board because it doesn't make "perfect sense" as you claim.

I don't need your enthusiasm. I need your vote for a wolf. Simple as that.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't need your enthusiasm. I need your vote for a wolf. Simple as that.

Do you care which one?



K, gonna make a post about Pitch and....erm, never mind, just saw the time.


Well this is anti-climactic.

[Morsul the Dark]

A lot to catch up on...

And the reason I'm defensive is this, whenever I try to think I know I think differently than others, they jump down my throat for being "weird"

anywho reading then maybe voting

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally 63
Sally likes to try to reveal quietly... an Italicized "I" adds an emphasis which is odd.

post 66 from sally "Of course, I'm by no means saying we should ignore seer reveals. If a 'seer' comes forward, we take their alleged dreams into account, blah blah. What I'm saying is that we won't know which seer they are, so while we can trust their dreams (hopefully!) we can't trust that they themselves are innocent.

trust a wolf seer really?

"post 48 In other news, I ain't trying this game, at least not like I did last time. I got suspected for trying too hard so if I'm going to be in trouble either way I'm not going to waste hours I could spend doing something productive doing an analysi post Having said that, I'll still be semi-active. Just not a lot of wordy brain power."

83 And I'm not even on Lommie's list.

with all the votes on Lommy I wonder if Sally was left off because she forgt to include her knowing her role

Ok realized DL is really really soon... so just to say after Quickly passing over the few pages here

Sally seems to have the most trouble.

++Sally

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

Nog was in no trouble, and yes he's a likely wolf target...but seriously you can say everyone is a wolf target! Lommy, Legate, Pitch, Inzil, sally, Izzy myself, you...wilwa I swear everyone has been killed by the wolves on Night 1 before.

I think many of those people would have also revealed in this situation, atleast I would have anyway (and I've been killed first night only once in 20 games). But with potentially 2 Night kills it is a risk to not get that information known. I suppose it doesn't make "perfect" sense, but it makes more sense then the other scenarios.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

with potentially 2 Night kills it is a risk to not get that information known. I suppose it doesn't make "perfect" sense, but it makes more sense then the other scenarios.

Potentially what, 5 kills? Okay that would be tough luck indeed. But the potential is enormous, much higher than in a normal game.

Also I knew Lommy is a wolf and that made me think it highly possible she would like to affect her bunch they checked me - like I needed to know her first.

Okay. Good night!

[satansaloser2005]

Aaaand everyone just lazes for the rest of the Day.



Is anyone hanging around?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Is anyone hanging around?

I'm here. In a dress.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Question for the moddess: will we be notified when a wolf dies, of which pack they are from?

Yes.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Question to the Moddess:
What happens if both packs together equal or outnumber the innocents? Do they devour the innocents jointly before turning against each other (as I'd assumed), or does one of the packs have to outnumber the innocents by themselves?

They do not. There can only be one pack to eat the innocents.

Snuggles to the first person to give me a vote count...

[satansaloser2005]

Kit-->Dun
Lommie-->Shasta
Nog-->Lommie
Legate-->Pitch
Sally-->Lommie
Dun-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Lommie
Pitch-->Lommie
Boro-->Lommie
Elf-->Lommie
Morsul-->Sally
Izzy-->Lommie


Which makes it Lommie 8, Dun, Shasta, Pitch, and Sally 1.

Yet to vote: Shasta, Nerwen

EDIT: x'd, lol. *snuggles Dun, btw*

[satansaloser2005]

And Silly Sally said to Little Lottie....why aren't you on IM? I miss you.

*zips it, for it be DL*

[Loslote]

"Oh, no!" wailed the villagers in carefully coordinated unison. "Lottie and Hakon are dead!"

"Wait, wait!" Sally said. "Try that line again, but this time to the tune of Yankee Doodle."

"Yankee Doodle?" Zil asked.

"Nah. Let's try singing it to a simple scale," Kit suggested.

Everyone tried it and agreed that they sounded good.

"We sound good," Nerwen said.

"We could form a band and go on a world tour," Wilwa suggested.

"Except for the fact that six of us are evil," Shasta pointed out.

"Well, other than that," Pitchie said.

"We could go Carribean," Izzy said, pulling out a couple of coconuts.

"Where'd you get coconuts?" Elfie asked. "We live next to Belegaer; there are no coconuts here."

"Maybe they migrated," Shasta said.

"Migrating coconuts?" Nerwen groaned.

"Maybe a penguin brought it," Boro suggested. All eyes turned to Lommy.

"Don't be silly," Nog said. "Penguins can't fly."

"Yeah, but if she tied the coconuts to her legs she might be able to float," Morsul said.

"Penguins can float anyway," Zil said.

"Penguins swim. They can't fly," Lommy said.

"Then how did you bring the coconuts?" Sally asked.

"I didn't!" Lommy said.

"I'm confused and my head hurts where someone dropped a coconut on it," Pitchie moaned.

"Let's settle this once and for all," Wilwa said.

"Yeah!" Morsul agreed. "Let's throw her off a cliff and see if she flies!"

"I was thinking we could just ask Izzy where she got the coconuts," Wilwa said. "But your way is more fun."

"Wait, what?" Lommy said.

So the villagers threw Lommy off the handy-dandy nearby cliff into the ocean. A few minutes later, a drowned wolf's body washed up onshore. It had a crystal ball clutched in its jaws.

~~~

Living:
Kit
Sally
Pitchie
Zil
Morsul
Wilwa
Boro
Nog
Shasta
The Elf-warrior
Nerwen
Izzy
Legate

Dead:
Lottie (amazingness itself )
Hakon (co-mod)
Lommy (seer!wolf for Pack Ladybug)

[The Elf-warrior]

I'd like to correct something I said yesterDAY. I also played Werewolf with the late Sally in Werewolf XLVIII, Virtual Reality. Wilwa, that "I'm on no team thing," passed me by. After I read about her desire to run away with Nilp/Shasta, I suspected they were lovers, but that suspicion slipped from me in the hustle and bustle of other things. Also, I realized that the lovers aren't really evil. I wouldn't have thought that a lover would be so blatant about it. When I read that the two were lovers, I thought to myself that I should have known.

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts,

Originally Posted by Wolflomien

Izzy - gives me good vibes this far. No idea why since she didn't talk much more sense than anybody else.

Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Looking back at the rules, I noticed that a wolf!seer is told the gifts of his or her dreamee. Maybe Lommy dreamed of Nerwen and told her pack. However, this doesn't explain why both packs ate her. Was Nerwen putting out hunter vibes I completely missed?

I'm not surprised neither pack went after Nogrod. I think one of the trains of wolf thinking going on was that if they left Nogrod alive, people would be more likely not to trust him. This wouldn't neutralize his potential wolf reveals, but it would make people less likely to trust his analysises and innocent reveals. Also, it is/was likely that the ranger protected Nogrod. In conclusion, I don't find Nogrod's continued survival very suspicious.

Isabellkya, I think Morsul asked to be killed because RL was too encroaching.

"Hey, look! A cliff!" Morsul said, and jumped over it.

"What was that?" Shasta asked.

"He had to quit," Lottie said. "He can explain why if he wants to."

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts, Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Lommy was a Seer!wolf, not the village Seer. I'm not sure why you think it's possible she may have dreamed of Izzy based on that quote. Why would Lommywolf say something positive about someone she had dreamed? She would only want to lynch or Night-kill them.

[The Elf-warrior]

Another correction. A wolf!seer only learns the gift of an innocent dreamee. At least that's how the modesses edited first admin post reads.

Originally Posted by Modess

The Seer!wolves receive one dream every Night. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a rival wolf, they are only told that the player is a wolf, not their gift. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a gifted, they are told what the gift is.

However, in a later post she says

Originally Posted by Modess

Simulation has been run. A solution has been found. However, I have not been able to contact Hakon to tell him, so please hang on until I can get confirmation.

The Seer!wolves can't see gifteds.

However, I think this later post has less weight.

Inzil, yes, I know she was a wolf!seer. I thought she may have been laying the groundwork for a possible fake seer reveal in future. A fake seer has to be accurate to believed, right?

Kitanna, I think Lommy might have dreamed of Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Lommy's first post

Nerwen - LYNCH HER! Erm... *cough*

Could Lommy have learned that Nerwen was the hunter? Not a certainty by any means, (after all, Nerwen expected such a reaction from Lommy anyway) but I think its a possibility.

[satansaloser2005]

I just lost the game.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I just lost the game.

Yes...yes you did.

So did I, btw. Grr.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't need your enthusiasm. I need your vote for a wolf. Simple as that.

That's one thing in your favor, is with the ratio of wolves to innocent, making the seer reveal now as opposed to if you are in lynch-danger, you face the threat of having more sinister minds around to try to discredit the reveal and actually get you lynched.

But, excuse me for not immediately buying you're claim to be the innocent seer. Nor, if you are, being very happy with our seer being out on Day 1, when I don't see the reason in it. It may very well be true that this was the best thing you could do for the village, but you've questioned some things I've done as an innocent, so don't mind my questioning of what the udun you're doing if you're innocent.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't need your enthusiasm. I need your vote for a wolf. Simple as that.

I just realised that might sound rude. Sorry Boro. That was not intentional (if it sounded rude).

What I meant - with my ear for English language - was: I don't need you to enthusiastically join the lynch, we just need you to join it, whatever your feeling about my status is.

As you guys discussed, even the wolf-seer would give a wolf - not delivering a wolf would be madness indeed as that would result in a firm lynch the next Day. But as has been noted, a wolfseer would not do that on D1 as s/he would have a wolfranger to protect him the first gameNight. So s/he would act on D2 the earliest.

And well, there's lots to discuss toMorrow. But now I need to go to sleep for real.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I just realised that might sound rude. Sorry Boro. That was not intentional (if it sounded rude).

Did not take it as rude, and I was probably more rude in my last post. Apologies if it was.

And well, there's lots to discuss toMorrow. But now I need to go to sleep for real.

That we can agree on.

++Lommy

[Pitchwife]

OK, that changes quite a lot of things.
So I have no idea what kind of Seer Nog is, if any at all (but I'm inclined to believe he's one of the three, as Lommy would be a totally plausible choice of dream for him), and I have to go to bed much too urgently to be able to think it all through toDay. All I know is that I don't see any logical thing for us to do toDay except to follow his dream. Even a wolf-Seer wouldn't risk claiming an innocent to be a wolf, as it would disprove his reveal immediately, so whatever he is, we'll be down one wolf toMorrow and have time to worry about Nog then.

Therefore,
++Lommy

Good night.

[wilwarin538]

Gotta sleep too now...

++Lommy