Arda Cup Football 2010

[Boromir88]

GROUP G- Gondolin is a shoe in for first, I can't see any one in this group beating them. If Doriath's odds are 1,000,000/1 go for it, if not, don't bet money on them to advance. Leaving 2nd to be battled between Gondor and Wold.

Doriath- I can't imagine them being as bad as they were in the friendlies, because they did hit rock bottom. They were out-shot by 22, and 2/3rds of Doriath's were off-target. I refuse to believe they will be that bad in tourney. Having said that, they're still not going to be good enough to advance. I don't think they'll leave empty handed though, it's not out of the question they win a draw against Gondor or Wold. I think skill-wise the Elves will be able to keep it pretty even against the mortals, and conglomeration of Orcs and trees. Plus you have to wonder if the Wold has enough ability to score on Melian. So, I predict a better performance for Doriath (seriously, just showing up on the pitch should do it) but still not good enough.

Gondolin- The only team that could be a bit of trouble is Gondor. Gondor has shown they can play even against the more-talented teams, but none of these teams can match Gondolin's skill. That is, as long as Gondolin decides now is the occassion to start playing and not slack off as they did in the last 2 friendlies. Over-confidence after seeing who their competition is in this group could be their stumbling block. The games are played for a reason, Gondolin found that out last year as heavy favourites only to miss the playoffs.

Gondor- I can't put my boys above Wold, simply because there is nothing about this team that makes them dominating. They play competive, that's all. The only team they'll out shoot is Wold, but will they turn that into multiple goals against Hama? They play respectable, they're not going to get run over by anyone, but they're also not going to run over anyone. And when someone says "You played respectable" that really means "You played better than what I thought, but you still lost." That's what you see from Gondor. They don't dominate, and you have to, to win.

Wold- Offense is going to be a big concern. Eomund did nothing in the friendlies, and way too much of their offense were produced by the defenders! Quickbeam showed some ability, he'll have to do more with Eomund though, because you can't rely on your defenders to do the scoring for you game-in and game-out. And their defense will be tested by quality FWs (even against Doriath - I am baffled by what Thingol's problem has been) for the first time. I like them for 2nd because Treebeard's brought the Mirkwood spirit with him. They won't make it as far as Mirkwood, but if you want to know how you resolve conflicts between several vastly different peoples, hire Treebeard.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Gondolin
2. Wold
3. Gondor
4. Doriath

GROUP H- In an ironic way, as offensively-geared this group is, it will come down to what defense is the least in-effective. The teams here can score on even the best defense, I wonder what they'll be capable of against eachother? For those of you who like smart 1-0 games, watch Group A. For me, I'll be watching this group with great interest.

Dol Guldur- For Mirkwood Oropher was not that bad of a goalie. It was their offense which provided the main spark getting to the semis, but Oropher made several spectacular saves which allowed them to upset Tuna and Valimar. I wonder what changed in a year? Part of the problem could be the newly added spiders on defense. Oropher had a mighty Ent and Radagast, the master of hues, on defense. (Aside: Radagast moved to FW because the Arda Cup committee said he would no longer be able to change colors, or distract players with butterflies as a defender. Since they specificed defender, he thinks he will still be able to at a different position). Where was I? Oh right, Oropher was behind a better defense last year, which in turn made him an adequate GK, now...not so much. They'll clearly score, but so can Tirion, Havens, and don't be shocked in the mighty Boromir I seeks revenge against the King who killed him.

Havens- I think Olwe finally has the right players, formation, and strategy to get his team over the hump, into the playoffs. I think they are also legitimate challengers ot the clear favorites, Tirion. Both drew with Vinyamar, so these nimble Elves while getting slaughtered for fighting the mightily-clad Noldor with sticks and cloth, have shown it won't be the same this year in football. With that said, I still expect another kin-slaying as Tirion runs through this group fairly easy. You got to love a team who can build a comfortable 2-goal lead. Sure Tirion can get a goal whenever they need one, but so can these guys.

Minas Anor- Rough draw for them, but I don't know if I'd like their chances even if they were in another group. The stewards historically provide strong competition and prove tough to break, but I think this team lost too much with the departure of Aragorn. They lost a bonified leader, and you just can't replace him with anyone. I see them easily losing all 3 matches, but I do think will give Dol Guldur their toughest game. Possibly, even manage a draw. Nothing brings out the best play in teams like a good and bloody heated rivalry.

Tirion- Will more than likely sweep, because not only are they the best offensive team, but in this group, they probably have the best defense. We'll definitely see opponents' shots increase, simply because of the caliber of the offenses they'll be playing. However, expect a big spike in their own shots as well. Feanor's remarks to MESPN are interesting, and if I may add, very wise. He made a rather ingenious decision to shore up the defense and prepare them for what they will be up against in this group. I think that will have a huge payoff, as Tirion looks to the championship.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Tirion
2. Havens
3. Dol Guldur
4. Minas Anor

[Nogrod]

The AKM comes forwards with the team qualifying bettings from the official MESPN Online Betting Industry Inc..

So how has the ME football community bet on the games thus far? Find it out from here and check your bets against the others!

First the group phase: so who is qualifying, who’s first, who’s second?

The percentages are: coming first – coming second – not qualifying

A
Aman 50% - 10% - 40%
Vinyamar 40% - 60% - 0%
Ithilien 10% - 30% - 60%
Beleriand 0% - 0% - 100%

B
Barad-Dûr 60% - 20% - 20%
‘Downs 40% - 40% - 20%
Gorgoroth 30% - 0% - 70%
Breeland 0% - 10% - 90%

C
Mithrim 60% - 30% - 10%
Pelennor 20% - 20% - 60%
Norbury 10% - 30% - 60%
Nargothrond 10% - 20% - 70%

D
Eithel Sirion 90% - 10% - 0%
Rohan 0% - 60% - 40%
Gelion 10% - 20% - 70%
Dale 0% - 10% - 90%

E
Utumno 60% - 30% - 10%
Numenor 30% - 50% - 20%
Rivendell 0% - 20% - 80%
Misty Mts. 10% - 0% - 90%

F
Thangorodr. 60% - 30% -10%
Valimar 30% - 40% - 30%
Bywater 10% - 20% - 70%
Lorien 0% - 10% - 90%

G
Gondolin 90% - 0% - 0%
Wold 0% - 60% - 40%
Gondor 10% - 20% - 70%
Doriath 0% - 20% - 80%

H
Tirion 80% - 0% - 0%
Havens 10% - 40% - 50%
Dol Guldur 10% - 30% - 60%
Minas Anor 0% - 20% - 80%



Results on other betting…


Most goals

30% of the betting goes for Fëanor making the most goals. Sauron and Túrin get 20% and Maedhros, Scatha and Tar Minastir have a 10% following each. There sure are a lot of plausible candidates left, not to talk of possible wild cards.

Most assists

This a lot more contested category. Only Nerdanel manages to pick 20% of the betting. Other candidates that have been bet on are: Beorn, Eowyn, Eöl, Ingwë, Melkor, Nienna, Sauron and the phantom.

To win

For the overal win of the tournament there is an interesting tie between four teams: Barrow-Downs, Mithrim, Tirion and Utumno have all gotten 20% of the betting thus far. Gondolin and Thangorodrim have received 10%. With six teams being bet on winning one might think the winner is already there, but watch it…


Betting on the most total phantasy points scored:

Keepers

With the keepers the betting has been overwhelming for Huan. He has gotten 50% of the bets. With a 10% share there are Elrond, Maglor, Melian, Nienna and Shelob. Huan is a quality keeper but clearly overrated. Any risk-taker could now capitalize with picking an unbet goalie.

Defenders

With defenders it’s basically the mirror-image of the goalie-betting. Only Curufin has managed to gather 20% of the bets as yet. All the other players bet have only 10% behind them, namely: Asfaloth, Balrog #4, Glaurung, Nessa, Shadowfax, skip spence, Tar Telperion and Treebeard.

Midfielders

With midfielders one gets an interesting picture. Melkor rules with 40% of the beting but Durin’s Bane challenges him with 30%. That is a tough race. But there are others to be sure. Those bet on already are Elros, Hador and Sally. Pretty good picks everyone of them. And there are a host of competitive challengers out and about.

Forwards

Not perhaps unexpectedly Fëanor leads the betting with 40% of betters relying on him. Túrin is a good second with 20% of the betting behind him. Other players to have been bet on are Maedhros, Miriel, Nerdanel and Wilwa.

[the phantom]

GROUP A
Beleriand vs Ithilien
Aman vs Vinyamar

GROUP B
Barad-Dur vs Barrow-Downs
Breeland vs Gorgoroth

GROUP C
Mithrim vs Pelennor
Nargothrond vs Norbury

GROUP D
Dale vs Rohan
Eithel Sirion vs Gelion

GROUP E
Numenor vs Rivendell
Misty Mts vs Utumno

GROUP F
Bywater vs Thangorodrim
Lorien vs Valimar

GROUP G
Gondolin vs Wold
Doriath vs Gondor

GROUP H
Dol Guldur vs Tirion
Havens vs Minas Anor

[Nogrod]

Group C at Amon Sûl

The MEFA authorities offered Fornost Erain – familiarly called The Deadmen’s Dike – to host group C. The Arthedain were pleased for the honour but as the rebuilding of Norbury was still far from accomplished they asked to host the games at Amon Sûl instead. The fully rebuilt tower laid a majestic backdrop to the stadium they built on its feet.

The Weathertop-Arena was not the most grand or lavish venue there was, but it was dashingly modern while it’s architecture honoured the surroundings and the great tower of Amon Sûl. From far away it looked like the stadium was embedded into the hillside, being a part of it.

The most expensive suites at the tower offered some real glamour for the spectators able to finance such lodgings – and a great view to the game from individual balconies. As a bonus the spectators would be shown live-coverage from all the matches going on at other locations via the restored palantir of Amon Sûl.

Before the first games the mood was congenial even if all the fans were naturally looking forwards to their team’s performance and somewhat nervous about their chances. After all the quality of the players in every team was astonishing: noble kings, great warriors, marvellous beasts…

No one seemed to question Mithrim’s first place in the group. But who was going to be the second qualifier? The home fans were convincend the northener’s would claim it, but it would be tough for the hosts.


Fornost Post managed to pick Curufin from after Mithrim’s last practise-session to share a few thoughts on the competition.


Fornost post: Most people are betting heavily on your team to qualify as number one from this group. How do you see your position and who are your toughest competitors?

Curufin: Well, we’ll take one match at the time. First we need to concentrate on winning Pelennor. They’re quite an offensive team but I believe that together with my bro and his hound we’ll keep them at bay.

Fornost Post: How about the home team? How do you see their chances?

Curufin: They say playing in front of your homecrowd gives you boost worth an additional player in the field. But as a team of expats we’re used to fighting on a strange soil... and shorthanded.

Fornost Post: Nargothrond has been a disappointment to many. How do you see their situation?

Curufin: They’ve given a good fight to every team they have met. One should never underestimate king Finrod – and my son will surely rise to the occasion come real matches.

Fornost Post: But which team of the other three will follow you to the qualifying rounds?

Curufin: Let’s play the games first, shall we? *heads away*

Fornost Post: Some people say that your forwards Túrin, Beleg and Húrin haven’t quite played to their level. Would you comment on that?

*Curufin is gone*


Group E at Goblin Town

Hithaeglir was offered to host group E of the Arda Cup this year on the basis that the other teams had already hosted so many events in the previous tournaments. The explanation was generally accepted but a few noticed that Utumno had only hosted games once before. Was Utumno played out in the cabinets? Happily Melkor and his crew didn’t feel like protesting. Actually Misty Mountains fit them just fine even if they didn’t comment on that in public: of the other venues Misty Mts. was by far the most hospitable to them – well they were created by Melkor in the first place - and now they could claim the right to host more important games later in the tournament. So who tricked whom?

After some tough negotiations between the different sides of the Misty Mountains team the venue was built, as a compromise, into the slopes of the High Pass near the entrance to the Goblin Town. They copied the idea from Rivendell’s new stadium built the year before and hew most of the seats straight into the mountain itself using a small valley as a base for the field. And they built it huge! There were reasons to believe this group would draw in a host of spectators from different races but still some wondered whether the organisators had overdone it. With a capacity of 110 000 spectators the new High Pass Stadium was one of the largest stadiums in the whole Middle Earth.

But a more pressing concern was keeping the peace during the games. With zillion goblins hosting eagles, dwarves, elves, numenorians and all the Melkor’s following it was clear the situation was explosive. Melkor had personally promised to take care of the order if any problems would arise but the MEFA authorities weren’t too convinced. It was only after a deal was reached that every team would take care of any rebel-rousers from their own followers the games were good to go.


Before the tournament the Great Goblin gave press conference to the media.


The AKM: What do you think of the security situation? There has been some rows already even before the games have started and all the tourists have poured in…

The Great Goblin: They’ve been minor skirmishes and they have been dealt with swiftly and efficiently. And that’s the way any disturbances will be dealt.

The AKM: What would you say to those who claim that your own team’s style of play is actually inspiring some of the violence? Looking at the number of cards your team…

GG: We have been treated wrongly by the referees. Football is a physical sport and that’s the game we play. Our eagles especially have been the victims of that misguided refereeing – who would have known in the earlier days I’d plea for the eagles… *laughs in the audience* Anyway. After Utumno’s balrogs are set loose you see what I mean with physical game and the referees just have to accept it.

The AKM: Are you suggesting that the referees will be intimidated to judge in the way that fits you and Utumno? Isn’t that quite bold?

GG: Next question please.