WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he were innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

I admit I never strongly suspected Glirdan. The only thing I really had against him was Sally's accusations at the end of the Day which did look rather wolf-on-wolf. Along with hearing his defense, I would've loved to look at Glirdan more in depth, but Day 3 was my worst Day participation-wise. I didn't have any solid suspects at the time of voting, nor did I have time to look for any...I chose to vote Glirdan because I knew if he survived the Day, he would continue to bug me the following Days. Knowing his role would help enlighten us on other players, so I figured it was worth lynching him...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players.

Just to make it clear, when making my analysis posts, I am writing down my suspicions based solely on what I'm analysing. While someone may look incredibly guilty in voting for example, they could've done something else that makes them look extremely innocent. Which is why you might've interpreted it as flipping. My post with the list of players are my overall thoughts for the Day.

I'm sorry if you think I misrepresented you. Again, I am limited on time and am doing these analyses while at work (though my job requires little attention, I do have to stop periodically while in the middle of writing something), so I could of easily missed something, but that's how I read it. I realise I probably should've put you in the wishy-washy section (I was debating it at the time since you seemed to be somewhere in between the two)...when I say wishy-washy, I mean players who see both sides of the issue, but are vague or hesitant when it comes to stating their own opinion on the matter.

Onto other things...

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, I feel pretty certain that neither of the Shasta voters are wolves. It was fairly obvious from early on that Nogrod would most likely be lynched, so it would've been easier for the wolf to blend in with the large bandwagon than stick out. Someone mentioned that Nogrod would've been aware that he was in danger of getting lynched and instructed his mate to suspect him. Having been wolves with Nog several times, this sounds to me exactly like something he would do.

With Lottie not dead yet, I think it's most probable that the final wolf is seeking out the cursed. It makes sense...the odds are certainly not in his/her favour, and by turning a cursed, the chances for a wolf win would double. Someone (I think Lommy) suggested looking at Nienna's posts since it's less likely those who were suspected by her would kill her in fear of being hunted. I agree; now without any packmates left, the lone wolf should've been perfectly aware of the hunter and would try to avoid at all costs getting hunted since that would mean game over for the wolves.

Btw, good to see you posting, Mira. I actually texted Nienna telling her to remind you to vote toDay when she sees you, in case you weren't aware of the possible modfire.

[skip spence]

Is here, sort of, but also cooking, cleaning and doing laundry. Hope to be able to give this a bit more time later.

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long. Will try to honour it by responding to some of Nerwen's points...

[Brinniel]

Okay, going through Nienna's posts was no help whatsoever. I didn't realise how little she posted yesterDay...

There's a lot of other things to analyse...yesterDay for one, and also Nogrod. I'm not going to do tons of analysing, but I can do a little bit. But right now I'm slightly hurting and could use a break from thinking about WW.

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on the cases presented:

Nerwen vs Brinn
- what Nerwen posted actually made me more suspicious of Brinn, even though Nerwen herself reached the opposite conclusion
- however, looking at the vote tally makes it beggar belief that Brinn's a wolf (she's really not so evil that she could heartlessly vote her fellows Day after Day) and her latest post seems very innocent, so I'm leaning on considering her innocent

Nerwen vs Skip
- good points
- BUT I think Nerwen is trying to grasp at straws a bit - like Agan said, Greenie's comment on Skip should not be forgotten (even though we can't take it as proof for Skip's innocence)*. Not sure if that makes Nerwen guilty, desperate or careless.

Agan vs Nerwen
- again good points, very precise and concrete ones
- however, I again get the feeling of grasping at straws. Nerwen is very scary and I'd be tempted to vote her just to be safe, so I get the uncomfortable feeling Aganwolf is trying to abuse people's instinctive distrust of Nerwen. It's hard to explain, but the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure. But - since Legate missed my flip-flopping - I have to give credit Agan with making a good case whether it was with evil intentions or not.


*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?


edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Not worried about atm
Skip - likely seer dream, didn't vote Nog. (I know I said before I'm not sure what Agan said about possible Nog-instruction is likely, but I'm sort of leaning towards that, especially if the last wolf is a newbie like Skippy.)
Winty - can't just find myself suspecting him. Has bandwagoned on most wolves, but it might be just a newbie going with the flow - whatever his role. I should possibly pay more attention to him.
Morsul - leaning innocent with his self-vote (mostly the phrasing).
Legate - somehow how he explained his wishy-washyness made me feel better about him although I'm not sure if it was a good point. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the last wolf because I'm generally clueless about stuff, though. But still he's not the most urgent of my concerns at all.
Brinn - maybe too good track record to be guilty, especially combined with her last innocent-looking post. I have nagging suspicions against her but I'm starting to think that's just my instinctive suspicion of her and nothing worse this time.
Mira - not enough evidence to make me worried. Not judging her before I see more.

Worried about atm
Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.
Nerwen - Agan brings some good points about her, and it is true she a) tends to throw fellows under the bus but might do it a little hesitantly and b) looks like she knows more than the rest of us.
Shasta - possibly the worst-seeming track record this far and I don't like him sort of slying under my radar all the time. (Lol just noticed the typo won't correct. )

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?

I dunno, I'd like to think so. From an in-game perspective it's difficult to say. Won't go through Greenie's posts now looking for clues but the way I recall things she called me probably innocent or something to that effect. So did lots of other people. And I was hardly the only one Greenie called innocent... From a RL-perspective I think you or Agan are much better judges than me.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.

Sometimes people do it (do you know Nilpaurion Felagund? It was his trademark). And I must admit that I can understand Morsul's point: if he's innocent (which I think he is) and everybody just keeps suspecting him, it can get quite frustrating. Like, lynch me now and be done with it!

Originally Posted by skip

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long.

Why? Do you have a reason to expect people would vote for you?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure.

Hey that's not fair!
And what do you mean by unsure? I read her posts and wrote what impressions I got. Then I made my conclusion about her based on the said impressions. I'm not sure she's guilty, but I just fail to see why appearing unsure when making an analysis is a sign of innocence.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.

What points are you talking about? When I said it's more likely Nog's fellow didn't try to save him, I didn't consider it something that would somehow incriminate me. You mean I shouldn't say anything that doesn't look entirely good on me because if I do it means I'm a wolf, even if it was helpful to us? And really I'm getting slightly bothered about the fact that you keep saying Nog was my & Shasta's first wolf-vote. Or do you know for sure that Mira and Morsul are innocent?
As for the "lynchable Inzil", you might notice it was partly my effort that made him lynchable - because he was my top suspect. Glirdy and sally pretty much slipped under my radar all the time - which you should know they wouldn't have done if I had been their fellow.
I don't like your points against me. They're not enough to make me think you're a wolf after all you've done, it's just that they're bad.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Why? Do you have a reason to expect people would vote for you?

Well, the points that Nerwen brought up are fairly obvious, aren't they. Not voting on now proved wolves the last two days and seemingly standing up for at least one of them, namely Glirdan. With result in hand these points gave me a good night's IC sleep confident that the remaining wolf would not come after me.

[skip spence]

Like, lynch me now and be done with it!

'
Yeah but it's very childish, isn't it? And not at all helpful for the village if he is innocent, nor helpful for him if he is a wolf. It could easily be a desperate bluff.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yeah but it's very childish, isn't it? And not at all helpful for the village if he is innocent, nor helpful for him if he is a wolf. It could easily be a desperate bluff.

If you keep playing werewolf, some day you'll find out how it feels when everybody suspects you and uses everything you say against you even when you try to help. It's sometimes nicer to die right away than to stay alive and constantly top everybody's suspicion list. Makes one feel like a burden to the village, and in a way it's true because if everybody concentrates on the suspicious innocent, the real wolf gets to pass by unnoticed.

Huh a couple of days ago I wouldn't have believed I'd be defending Morsul...

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

That's some pretty cold reasoning, Brinn.

If you are still around Nerwen (what time is it in Oz now?) I'd like to know what you mean by "over-literal"?

Originally Posted by skip

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

When I read this the first thing I thought of was: if he were an ordo and not a wolf, he'd not be insane for putting the wolves up for the slaughter, he'd be a hero and a trailblazer for picking out the enemies of the village. Isn't that merely a literal interpretation of a statement not intended to be anything but literal? Agree with Agan that it easily could be an honest mistake though.

Here's Morsul's response btw:

and if it does all I can say is we as a village had a good run figures We'd lynch an innocent eventually...

As for the rest, in the scenario that me and Nogrod were the remaining wolves, do you really think we would decide that I'd try to vote Shasta (on admittedly rather weak grounds) and by that trying to save Nog, although it was very unlikely this rescue attempt would succeed? After seemingly trying to defend Glirdan on the previous Day?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.

Here you'd be right. Have had a rather busy week with a cold on top of that and I'm struggling to catch up just now.

In retrospect Nogrod did looked a likelier wolf than Shasta. Sally And Glirdan I'm still amazed we nailed so quickly and still don't really understand just how it happened. After a quick review I can see why Nogrod was lynched, though. At the time of voting however I was behind in the reading (still am, but slightly less so) and I'm just loath to jump on a bandwagon without good reason.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And really I'm getting slightly bothered about the fact that you keep saying Nog was my & Shasta's first wolf-vote. Or do you know for sure that Mira and Morsul are innocent?

But if one of them is a wolf, you or Shasta can't be, so it doesn't matter. I don't quite get what's the problem here. Obviously we can only analyse possible wolf-on-wolf votes on known wolves, and given that there's only one wolf remaining, there can't be an unknown wolf on unknown wolf vote. So what's the fuss?

Originally Posted by Agan

And what do you mean by unsure? I read her posts and wrote what impressions I got. Then I made my conclusion about her based on the said impressions. I'm not sure she's guilty, but I just fail to see why appearing unsure when making an analysis is a sign of innocence.

People tend to flip-flop in their analyses even if they are more inclined to see somebody as either guilty or innocent. Your analysis was pretty condemning all along.

Originally Posted by Agan

What points are you talking about? When I said it's more likely Nog's fellow didn't try to save him, I didn't consider it something that would somehow incriminate me. You mean I shouldn't say anything that doesn't look entirely good on me because if I do it means I'm a wolf, even if it was helpful to us?

No! I didn't say that you presenting a point that puts you in bad light makes you evil, only that it doesn't speak for your innocence either. You would do that as an innocent as well as a wolf. If I ended up sounding it means you're evil it's simply because I remember wolf-Agans bringing up points harmful to the wolves in previous games. But if I use sense, you would of course come up with points like that as an innocent too. So I guess what I mean is that as the instances when you've brought up such points that I remember are from when you're a wolf the fact that you're doing it now reminds me of Wolf-Agan but if I think with reason it doesn't incriminate you (although it doesn't exonerate you either). Was that long enough explanation?

Originally Posted by Agan

Glirdy and sally pretty much slipped under my radar all the time - which you should know they wouldn't have done if I had been their fellow.

Which is not a good defense because as a wolf you could've pretended they did.

And no need to get so jumpy. *raises eyebrows*

PS. And I don't want to start an innocent-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument (since we have avoided it this far, I'm actually surprised ) nor a wolf-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument started by the person first mentioned to get people think it's another innocent-on-innocent row and thus makes them both look innocent.


edit: xed with everything since Brinn's first
edit2: marked a quote

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But if one of them is a wolf, you or Shasta can't be, so it doesn't matter.

Hmm that's true. It just sounded bad to my ear.

People tend to flip-flop in their analyses even if they are more inclined to see somebody as either guilty or innocent. Your analysis was pretty condemning all along.

It wasn't intentional and I tried to see both sides. I was slightly suspicious of Nerwen when I started doing the analysis but I don't think I let it affect it (rather, the analysis just backed up my suspicions)... If it's condemning it's because she looked more guilty than innocent.

If I ended up sounding it means you're evil it's simply because I remember wolf-Agans bringing up points harmful to the wolves in previous games.

You did and it annoyed me.

Which is not a good defense because as a wolf you could've pretended they did.

I could but I wouldn't have done that because it would've looked bad on me. But because you can't know my role for certain there's no use to talk about that - suffice to say, you'll see when the game ends (or I die).

And no need to get so jumpy. *raises eyebrows*

I wasn't jumpy, I was annoyed in a way nobody else can make me.

And I don't want to start an argument either, it just happened!

Anyway while Lommy was writing her charming little post I looked through the thread to see who had used their retractions, and I don't like the result very much... In addition to some dead people, only Lottie and me don't have ours left. Okay I suppose it could be worse too, if only a few refused to let go of theirs and there were more wolves left.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

given that there's only one wolf remaining, there can't be an unknown wolf on unknown wolf vote.

Sure it can. A wolf may vote himself.

Originally Posted by Agan

If you keep playing werewolf, some day you'll find out how it feels when everybody suspects you and uses everything you say against you even when you try to help. It's sometimes nicer to die right away than to stay alive and constantly top everybody's suspicion list. Makes one feel like a burden to the village, and in a way it's true because if everybody concentrates on the suspicious innocent, the real wolf gets to pass by unnoticed.

Yes, but why then play this game? Surely you can't expect people to trust you, unless they have a solid reason?

Edit: Agan: Lottie too still has hers left. I remember her retraction was late. Again, why is this a problem?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes, but why then play this game? Surely you can't expect people to trust you, unless they have a solid reason?

True but sometimes it gets out of proportions, and it can be really annoying when nobody listens to you. So I wouldn't say that getting frustrated means that Morsul is a baddie or very unhelpful. It's better for the village not to focus on a single suspect, and if Morsul's innocent, he's trying to sacrifice himself for the greater good.

Edit: Agan: Lottie too still has hers left. I remember her retraction was late. Again, why is this a problem?

Oh yes that's true. And it's not a problem, it's just something that should be kept an eye on. Just in case. In a game where the lynch is determined by who gets the biggest number of votes last, a single retraction made right before the deadline can mean a lot.

[Morsul the Dark]

Agan's... defending me

There are many reasons to vote oneself...

Frustration
For the greater good
to have a unanimous vote(Happened a few games ago)
and others...

My vote is definitely not out of frustration.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Agan's... defending me

There are many reasons to vote oneself...

Frustration
For the greater good
to have a unanimous vote(Happened a few games ago)
and others...

My vote is definitely not out of frustration.

And then your other post which talked about a "plan"... do you really want me to spell it out for the class, Morsul?

[skip spence]

So either we have Morsul the Martyr or Morsul the Desperate Lone Wolf? Voting on him does seems like a win-win scenario and at the moment I'm willing to oblige.

But I'm also concerned about the lack of other serious candidates.

And Agan, wouldn't you save yourself by retracting and re-voting if you had the chance and it was your only chance? Regardless of the role?

Edit: To clarify, an innocent saving himself from being lynched by re-voting may also get the real wolf lynched and thus be good for the village.

[Aganzir]

Yeah Morsul wouldn't have thought so?

Originally Posted by skip spence

Voting on him does seems like a win-win scenario and at the moment I'm willing to oblige.

To me it doesn't because I believe we have a chance of getting a baddie (Nerwen)... And that reasoning would totally make me suspect you (skipwolf just wants an easy lynch!) if it wasn't for other things that make me think you more innocentish.

And Agan, wouldn't you save yourself by retracting and re-voting if you had the chance and it was your only chance? Regardless of the role?

Maybe but not necessarily. It would depend on the situation.

FYI, I'm trying to go through Nog's interactions with others in order to supplement Lommy's extensive wolf post analysis (mainly because I think it was a darn good way to do it ). However I'd love to go to sleep in half an hour so it might be I don't have to complete it.

[Brinniel]

winty: I just can't see him being a wolf. If he were one, he probably would've had more guidance on the first Days. He looks like a confused newbie innocent to me.

Mira: I don't suspect her because even with time constraints, I think she would be more devoted to the game as a wolf. I just can't see a Mira-wolf miss voting for two Days considering her participation would be more important than ever with all her packmates gone.

Aganzir: Scares me a little bit. I agree with some things she says and I think she made a good case against Nerwen. The problem is an Agan-wolf is capable of making brilliant cases against players in order to get them lynched (I would know). The only reason I'm leaning more towards innocence is that I'm not sure she would make such a strong case as a wolf when she needs to last several Days in order to win. If Nerwen turns out innocent, that would make Aganzir look bad which is not what a lone wolf wants when they need to survive three more Days to win.

Shasta: I'm very uncertain about him. It'd be interesting if he were a wolf, and I wouldn't put it past Nogrod to suspect his final packmate if he thought it would help. Of course, this tactic was already tried and failed, so maybe not. Reading Shasta's posts, there's nothing that jumps out at me as seriously suspicious, but I'm still not sure.

Nerwen: Suspicious. While her voting record may seem good, the timing on her votes is not. And the reasons she comes to for voting the wolves has been rather wishy-washy...she certainly hasn't been eager to lynch any of them. The open case she's done on me doesn't feel all that innocent...it's her hesitance that makes me skeptical.

Legate: I don't know. His posts often end up becoming a blur to me because they're so long, but from what I got reading, he seems genuine. But the problem is that Legate can be really sneaky...sometimes when he seems least suspicious, he turns out to be a wolf. I don't see any reason to suspect him right now, but I would just like to keep an eye on him.

Morsul: His behaviour in this game seems typical of him. I can't see him being so clever or bold to vote fellow wolves from early on and then toDay vote for himself to make himself look innocent. Those are some very risky moves for a wolf to make. I do think it's less likely he's a wolf and would rather not see him lynched toDay.

Skip: While he's done some suspicious things, his intentions behind his actions seem good and his words genuine. He could very well be a clever newbie wolf...I can see him pulling it off. I'm still leaning toward innocence, but I'm a little more unsure of it compared to other players in that category.

Lommy: I think she's innocent. I can't remember her having any hesitance in suspecting and voting for the wolves...I doubt a wolf would be so eager to lynch all her fellows and I don't think Lommy's the type who'd want to be a lone wolf. I also agree with her on many points, particularly the list post she made about other players. If Lommy is a wolf, I'd have to give her mad props because I just don't see the slightest bit of wolfishness in her.