WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And what did you think before?
I don't think anyone's really claimed I was dreamed, yeah it's a possibility but I'm not even myself convinced Greenie did it.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.

It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Gah, this will be the most difficult Day vote-wise in this game this far. The previous Days felt much easier. Do you others have any ideas who you're going to vote (except that Agan is going to vote Nerwen )?

Heh. List?

Would vote:
Legate (he's acting differently toDay than in the past few Days. Maybe because he's sick; maybe because he was Cursed - and he'd definitely fit the profile of past kills.)
Mira (has been suspicious and waaaay under the radar.)

Might vote:
WW (I have no read on him, but if there's a good case made against him...idk)
Nerwen (her recent actions look furry.)
Skip (I can't read him, either, but he does look a bit too capable.)

Would not vote:
Brinn (I don't think she's guilty.)
Agan (I'm not sure about her exactly, but I don't get furry vibes from her.)
Shasta (I have never thought him suspicious and I don't think he was Turned.)

To conclude, I want to lynch Legate, would be happy to lynch Mira, and would not be mad if WW, Nerwen, or Skip were lynched.

EDIT: xed since Formy

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, why are you so sure the cursed was turned last Night?

++Aganzir

I'm sorry darling, but you know I hate you to fool me as a wolf. Are you a wolf, then? Not sure, but your horrible track record when it comes to lynching wolves isn't exactly convincing. And I do get creepy vibes from you.

I'm especially sorry if Nerwen is the last wolf. But if it comforts you, if you're lynched and innocent, you can take my word that I won't fail to lynch Nerwen on the third time.

That being said, I leave this village in your hands, friends. I don't really have a preference over which one we lynch, Agan or Nerwen, I'll be probably after the other one toMorrow (if there is a toMorrow which I can take part to). If someone else dies, though, I'll be quite unhappy.

I trust you to make the right choice (whatever it is)... Good night!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie, why are you so sure the cursed was turned last Night?

Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.

And, following up on the Legate theory, the people Night killed in order were:

Boro (not suspected at all and probably a Shirriff [in the wolves' minds at the time])
Izzy (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good new packmate)
Greenie (suspected, but gifted)
Nienna (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good packmate)

So, if we add
Legate (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good packmate)

We find that he fits perfectly. Also, his behavior has changed overNight. He's currently my top suspect.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If I go down toDay, I have a request to the village: don't just let it slide. People who voted me will say, "oh, but she looked so evil"– but watch that. I'm pretty sure I haven't, objectively, done anything suspicious. It seems one of those cases where people repeat something until everyone believes it.

While I can agree with some things others say, I would not have a strong suspicion of anyone without going back to look at posts for myself. My opinion on you was based on what I read in your posts in previous Days, and I have been suspecting you for quite awhile. You may not think you've done anything suspicious, but you are looking at it with an inner perspective. If you are innocent, you have to remember that because we don't know your role, something that doesn't seem out of the ordinary to you, may appear suspicious to us.

Aganzir can be a very persuasive wolf, which is why she is dangerous when one. I've seen her make a case like this before (against me, in fact), and persuade the entire village to vote for said person. But with that said, when I've seen her do it, it's been towards the end of a game, when victory is near. If there is still one wolf left (and there definitely was yesterDay when she started the case), that wolf has survive several Days to defeat the village. An Agan-wolf would surely be aware that she would most likely be suspected if Nerwen was lynched and turned out innocent. So I'm wondering whether she would be so forceful against an innocent at this point in the game if she were a wolf.

For a lone wolf to win, the smartest thing to do his stay under the radar and not make any bold moves that could gather attention. So if anything, it might be worth suspecting those who put up bold attacks against another player less than those who follow suspicions. I could be wrong on this...maybe this wolf is very daring, but in my past experience as a lone wolf, it's best to try to sit back and let things happen without being forceful in any way. Unless you're being suspected...then it's all about defend, defend, defend (in whichever way the wolf thinks is most convincing).

Lottie, while we can consider the possibility of the cursed being turned, we shouldn't assume it. I recommend you don't vote someone because you think they are cursed...instead try to find the fourth wolf. If we lynch them, then we will find out whether we even have a cursed.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...

Frustrated can also be furry. There have been just as many frustrated wolves in the past as frustrated innocents. So don't think your frustration is going to make you look anymore innocent.

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira

[Brinniel]

++Nerwen

Bah, this is annoying. I really hope Agan is the wolf then..

If I'm dead by toMorrow, please LYNCH NERWEN. Well, unless Agan turns out to be a wolf...

[Brinniel]

Oh crap, Mira's going? I'd rather see Agan go, though not enough to retract...

Looks like an easy lynch. Mira's been busy in RL. I do NOT like how winty keeps coming out of nowhere to vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Would vote:
Legate (he's acting differently toDay than in the past few Days. Maybe because he's sick; maybe because he was Cursed - and he'd definitely fit the profile of past kills.)

Lottie, that's not a good enough reason to lynch someone– certainly not yet, when we don't even know what happened last Night!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nerwen (her recent actions look furry.)

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...

EDIT:X'd with Legate and Lottie.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lottie, that's not a good enough reason to lynch someone– certainly not yet, when we don't even know what happened last Night!

Look at my later explanation.

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...

I haven't, but this looks a bit over-the-top, considering you were in my category of people I only might vote, and probably won't.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–

++Aganzir

This is the second time I've had to vote someone I don't really suspect all that strongly. Or at least, I haven't had time to look through Agan's posts and make an informed opinion on her.

But I have to go now, and this time I definitely won't be back before DL.

So, good luck.

Just remember what I said: we can't afford to get lazy.

[Thinlómien]

Gah, I'm sort of annoyed at the turn this game has taken. The two last lynches have been very stupid and lazy in my opinion, and now we lost Skippy, one of the few I really trusted (and who even turned out to be our ranger). I was sort of hoping I'd get killed instead because the game is starting to make me frustrated...

Well I guess there are good sides to Skip's death too - now the possibility of a very likely seer-dream semi-known innocent turning evil is eliminated and now anybody won't waste a lynch on him...

Just if you get Winty lynched toDay I will probably give up and quit, or alternatively stay awake until 4-5 am (whenever the DL exactly is my time) and make sure you lynch somebody really suspicious... grr. Okay, sorry about that rant, now I'm off to read and comment yesterDay and toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.

And why does that make a ranger save any less likely? Or the wolf having a busy weekend? Your conclusions lay on shaky grounds.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually.

...why? I don't see that you had any points against him anywhere in your analysis and then you just conslude he's suspicious. Also, before you wanted to nail him as cursed and once Brinn criticised your methods, you went on to "prove" he was actually one of the original wolves. Is it certain we can't have a Cursed Shiriff?

Pretty much agree on everything in Brinn's post #902, although Nerwen also has a point against mind-easing lynches. I would actually like to ask: who do you Nerwen suspect?

Well whatever the case, I still think the last wolf is Nerwen or Agan. Could be Legate, but Lottie's case against him just seems so silly that I can't bring myself to seriously suspect him until he does something really suspicious. Theoretically, Winty could also be the last wolf but I wouldn't put my money on that because lynching him would again be quite a shot in the dark.

I could have a look at stuff but I'm not sure if it's of any use. Nerwen and Agan have both been analysed before with little results. The wolves' interactions with everybody have been gone through (and not like I'd do something so big right now, I don't have the time). There seems little unused evidence, except maybe that the remaining wolf's kill own choices have been Nienna, something we don't know and Skippy... Off to do stuff and think about that a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, what do the kill choices tell?

- Nienna wasn't suspected, Skip was a little. (But there were people who were suspected less, for example Brinn and me - why isn't one of us dead?)
- Both dead were gifteds. (Which could lead you to say that the wolf is a good gifted-spotter, but it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter.)
- Skip was believed to be the seer-dream target by some. (So could we assume the wolf believed that, either publicly or secretly and thus killed him in hopes of getting a cursed some villagers would definitely trust? Or did s/he notice his giftedness? Or did s/he have some other motive?)

Conclusions? Well, there really isn't much of a pattern. I think Nienna was killed merely for being rather no-trace and considered innocent by very many. As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

I would also be tempted to believe the wolf is a loudmouth who wants to keep similar kind of players around in order not to stand out. Or then it's someone - loudmouth or not - who knows that it's the easiest to let loudmouths argue with each other, which only leaves Winty as a newbie out, and given his votes have been rather random this far, it's difficult to try to conclude what kind of kills he'd have made.

I'm off now to sign a tenancy agreement, go to the library and visit two museums, but I'll be back in some hours. Hopefully someone has posted something more by that time...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.

Originally Posted by Loslote

It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.

Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.

[Aganzir]

Alright... I have very little time to post today, just letting you know.

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

I'm bothered by his votes too. It doesn't take so much to contribute, really. But unlike you I think we can afford to ignore him if he doesn't do anything but vote and disappear. Lynching him now and finding him innocent would be bad for us, and it can always be argued whether a one post a day -wolf deserves to win.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind.

It's too late to lynch somebody because knowing their roles will ease your mind. We should get a lynch today.

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed?

Or maybe Lottie is a goner now that the ranger died - for all the wolf knows, the ranger might have protected the known innocent every second night.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Originally Posted by Brinn

we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf.

Yes but because of the retractions, I would say we have one day. If the cursed has been turned, it'll be 2-4 tomorrow, and both wolves might have their retractions left (everybody but Nerwen & I has theirs). And they can use them to lynch an innocent if opportunity arises.

Originally Posted by Lottie on Legate

As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed.

I think he's been doing that with almost every lynch thus far (at least as far as I can recall), both with wolves and innocents... But I agree it's strange of Legate to be so non-committing. The Legate (both wolf & innocent) I'm used to is... different.

Originally Posted by Lommy

it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter

I don't think so. If the wolf wants to win, the hunter has to die sooner or later and the sooner, the better. Not sure if she really spotted Nienna though.

Originally Posted by Lommy

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.

???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

There were some things I wanted to comment on yesterday but I don't have time for it now... Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))

There's some interesting lines (bolded) in two of those posts.

#812.

Originally Posted by Skip

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

#823.

Originally Posted by Skip

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Mmn. Well, I really don't know about you either way, Agan– and I can see points against you, all right– but all the same I think it might be useful to see where this "one of them must be a wolf" meme comes from, and/or who has been helping it along.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Maybe the bit you already quoted?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

See my points above for how the wolf could have picked him as the Ranger... but Lommy's point still doesn't make sense.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once, so in theory Skip could have saved himself on the night of no-kill. That seems unlikely, however.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?

EDIT:fixed quotes and formatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Alright, I'm here, I have other work to do now, but I'll try to be around. A few comments for now:

As for skip's death - maybe, since he was the Ranger, it might be worth to try to see if, by any slight chance, he did not say anything yesterDay which might have given his role away. For that matter, it would be also interesting to see if there isn't anything which would lighten us on whether he perchance did not have a save yesterDay. Although, as it's been said, it may be quite likely that he himself has not been informed whether he made a save or not. But if there was something, maybe that might have been a reason for the Wolf to target him? Can't think of anything else right now.

Otherwise, I think we are getting sort of into the stage of losing the focus. I am really starting to reconsider whether if we had lynched Nerwen three Days ago, this game would've been done already. Anyway, also, if the Cursed has not been turned already, the chances are growing and eventually it might be a rather crucial moment if that happens (especially now without the Ranger!).

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

One more idea. Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent? Because in that case, if there is this generally believed theory of skip being a dreamt-of innocent, it would be quite convinient for the Wolf to try to get him, even more in the case that later e.g. Greenie was revived and confirmed his dreamed innocence (and thus nobody would suspect him at all).

As for what's been said about winty, I think it comes down to this general dilemma of having somebody who is not around basically at all... I would really like to see him around more and not just popping in and out with voting for the person who's being currently lynched.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

Although now I see what Agan says, which is also true... hmm, well I guess then one more reason for me to look at whether skip said something yesterDay which could have looked Ranger-ish. Because in the case of the Ranger save, the Wolf only would know what happened (he/she would know if he/she sent the kill, and if there was no Cursed, then the only explanation left would be the Ranger save). It's possible that in such circumstances, the Wolf would go to eliminate the threat just to be on the safe side - but that assumes knowing who the Ranger is. (At least it is the one thing that makes sense to me.)

EDIT: okay, seems Nerwen actually had gone through some skip...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))
(...)
Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Okay, this is an interesting observation. It seems a bit complicated to me, although now from the point of view of knowing that skip was the Ranger, it makes sense to see it like that. But I don't think it would be so obvious if you don't know who he is. Of course, it depends.

Now, of course, I could start wondering whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did, although especially in her case, I would not find it impossible to be bold like that. But anyway - in either case, it's an interesting theory (although still I think a bit far-fetched in general). I am going to look at skip a bit myself now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.

But what are you two actually agreeing about? As I've said already said, it's kind of late in the game for a "just-in-case" lynch. This is probably the last Day we could lynch him to see what he is... and look how well that's been working.

EDIT:X'd with two Legates.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Me

–Now, why does that entire post of Legate's give me a bad feeling?

To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window.

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so looking through skip's posts, I am not really sure how much he could have been perceived as Ranger. There is however one thing not from yesterDay, but from the Day before, which maybe in connection to the thing mentioned by Nerwen could make him look Ranger-y:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Alright.

++Morsul

Better him than me (apart from what I've already said)!

And then the next Day:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Which is sort of in contradiction, would-be showing that Skip applies different rules on himself than on others ("better him than me" vs. the latter). It's sort of questionable as there were still many people left to vote back then when skip voted, but then again, if he was leaving and not expecting to vote after that... but there is also the other thing Nerwen mentioned, and now actually seeing it it looks a bit more "there is something more important than being innocent"-knowing.

Originally Posted by skip spence

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

And, of course, speaking of that, his sort of general opposition for Agan's wasting-retractions theory is even a lot more reasonable now: he obviously had personal interest in keeping his retraction, as saving himself might have been crucial if necessary. On the other hand, yesterDay he used his retraction in circumstances where he wasn't threatened (he retracted from Nerwen to Agan), so one would think that would've spoken sort of against him being the Ranger. But who knows.

Anyway, it does not seem to me that there would be anything in his posts pointing towards the knowledge whether he made a save yesterNight or not. Well, I guess no can do.

So... I'll be off now for a moment, but will try to stay updated and then be back to contribute something more.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen