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Old 04-18-2010, 05:00 PM   #1
Nerwen
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Anyway–

++Aganzir

This is the second time I've had to vote someone I don't really suspect all that strongly. Or at least, I haven't had time to look through Agan's posts and make an informed opinion on her.

But I have to go now, and this time I definitely won't be back before DL.

So, good luck.

Just remember what I said: we can't afford to get lazy.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:03 AM   #2
Thinlómien
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Gah, I'm sort of annoyed at the turn this game has taken. The two last lynches have been very stupid and lazy in my opinion, and now we lost Skippy, one of the few I really trusted (and who even turned out to be our ranger). I was sort of hoping I'd get killed instead because the game is starting to make me frustrated...

Well I guess there are good sides to Skip's death too - now the possibility of a very likely seer-dream semi-known innocent turning evil is eliminated and now anybody won't waste a lynch on him...

Just if you get Winty lynched toDay I will probably give up and quit, or alternatively stay awake until 4-5 am (whenever the DL exactly is my time) and make sure you lynch somebody really suspicious... grr. Okay, sorry about that rant, now I'm off to read and comment yesterDay and toDay.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:26 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.
And why does that make a ranger save any less likely? Or the wolf having a busy weekend? Your conclusions lay on shaky grounds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually.
...why? I don't see that you had any points against him anywhere in your analysis and then you just conslude he's suspicious. Also, before you wanted to nail him as cursed and once Brinn criticised your methods, you went on to "prove" he was actually one of the original wolves. Is it certain we can't have a Cursed Shiriff?

Pretty much agree on everything in Brinn's post #902, although Nerwen also has a point against mind-easing lynches. I would actually like to ask: who do you Nerwen suspect?

Well whatever the case, I still think the last wolf is Nerwen or Agan. Could be Legate, but Lottie's case against him just seems so silly that I can't bring myself to seriously suspect him until he does something really suspicious. Theoretically, Winty could also be the last wolf but I wouldn't put my money on that because lynching him would again be quite a shot in the dark.

I could have a look at stuff but I'm not sure if it's of any use. Nerwen and Agan have both been analysed before with little results. The wolves' interactions with everybody have been gone through (and not like I'd do something so big right now, I don't have the time). There seems little unused evidence, except maybe that the remaining wolf's kill own choices have been Nienna, something we don't know and Skippy... Off to do stuff and think about that a bit.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:51 AM   #4
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Okay, what do the kill choices tell?

- Nienna wasn't suspected, Skip was a little. (But there were people who were suspected less, for example Brinn and me - why isn't one of us dead?)
- Both dead were gifteds. (Which could lead you to say that the wolf is a good gifted-spotter, but it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter.)
- Skip was believed to be the seer-dream target by some. (So could we assume the wolf believed that, either publicly or secretly and thus killed him in hopes of getting a cursed some villagers would definitely trust? Or did s/he notice his giftedness? Or did s/he have some other motive?)

Conclusions? Well, there really isn't much of a pattern. I think Nienna was killed merely for being rather no-trace and considered innocent by very many. As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

I would also be tempted to believe the wolf is a loudmouth who wants to keep similar kind of players around in order not to stand out. Or then it's someone - loudmouth or not - who knows that it's the easiest to let loudmouths argue with each other, which only leaves Winty as a newbie out, and given his votes have been rather random this far, it's difficult to try to conclude what kind of kills he'd have made.

I'm off now to sign a tenancy agreement, go to the library and visit two museums, but I'll be back in some hours. Hopefully someone has posted something more by that time...
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