WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Isabellkya]

Rikae. That quoted portion was a general statement to the at least three people whom seemed like they were looking to place their vote on whoever had the most potential to be lynched - as opposed to their top suspicions. Most often when I am saying something directly to a person, I put their name first. Like I did here.

WW here is essentially the same basic concept as traditional mafia - which I have played. The WW that I have previously played - and got started on; is different. However the concepts are all the same. If I thought I could teach everyone a thing or two - I would say so. But thank you once again for putting words into my mouth. Regardless of what styles I have played - it all boils down to the same basic concepts. Informed minority versus an uninformed majority. The fact of the matter is - which can be proven. That people easily slip into habits in terms of what innocents should do, shouldn't do, what they won't do, will do.. the same goes for wolves. We make assumptions based on what we think the mod will/not do.. etcetera. Anything which is different from the 'standard' or 'habitual' actions - is deemed wrong, or bad play. It all boils down to - having closed minds.

Newbie players have a much higher probability of making mistakes; because they are learning. Newbie wolves much more so - they have to learn the rules along with being a wolf. You don't have to be under pressure to make a mistake. A mistake can happen in any type of situation. Who really knows the reason for why she voted for Loslote? She stated she didn't even want to copy the list in the first place - so why do it, if you don't want to?

So wolves never have to vote accordingly on Day One because of threat of modfire? That really is a null tell. Anyone can be under threat of modfire on the first Day - and thus have to make a vote because of it. It isn't just going to be innocents whom are under the modfire hammer. Modfire is not alignment specific.

[Pitchwife]

Just popped in to check the narration, have to be off to work in a minute. Noia, I'll answer you (and Rikae) in full when I get back (in about 9 or 10 hours). It sucks that our timezones are so different that we can rarely talk directly, so apologies for voting you in your absence, but that's how it is... Till later!

[Isabellkya]

Players Alive:
Dun
Noia
Pitch
Izzy
Shasta
Winty
Rikae

Roles Alive:
1 Metamorph
1 Traitor
1 Secret Role
1 Assassin
3 Ordo's

Metamorphship
Dun
Pitch/Paranoia
Rikae
Shasta
Winty
Izzy
Innocent

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Players Alive:
Dun
Noia
Pitch
Izzy
Shasta
Winty
Rikae

Roles Alive:
1 Metamorph
1 Traitor
1 Secret Role
1 Assassin
3 Ordo's

Metamorphship
Dun
Pitch/Paranoia
Rikae
Shasta
Winty
Izzy
Innocent

I was just going to do that

[wintywinty]

Lottie got killed last night. There is two probable reasons for this. One, the wolves discovered her Gifted-ness. Or Two, her list of Suspects was close to dead-on. I didn't include her not being traced to anyone, because with Lottie's plethora of posts, someone could easily find a connection. Because I can not find no connection and so far no one has pointed out the possibility of Lottie being the Defender, then I am going with the assumption that reason two is correct, then the three Lottie listed yesterday as Morphish or Possible Morphish were Wilwa, Izzy, and Pitchwife. Wilwa was lynched, therefore my top two candidates for Morph/Traitor are Izzy and Pitchwife, with Pitchwife being on top, due to the fact that it seems as though Wilwa was almost following his lead, voting for her 4th option, and only 4 minutes after Pitchwife voted Paranoia.

[Rikae]

Izzy, I think it basically comes down to you and I having different philosophies of WW. My track record over the last three and a half years is not entirely horrible, so I'd appreciate it if you would stop talking to me as though I knew nothing. Putting words in your mouth? No, but I'm reading your attitude, as it comes through in your posts. Often I find attitudes more revealing than words in this game, and when something works, I use it. I couldn't disagree more with your philosophy, which seems to hinge on "anything's possible", which is true enough, but useless - and some things are more likely than others. It's far more likely for an innocent to make silly blunders, flip-flops, etc. than a wolf, and the difference can usually be detected with close observation. But don't listen to me. *shrug* As for you, you don't seem, to me to be quite as defensive as you would be if evil; plus, I don't want to allow philosophical differences to cloud my judgment. I'm a bit more concerned about Pitch at the moment, and await his answers.
Wintywinty - I actually tend to think the morphs suspected Lottie as the defender. I know I did. A while back, she asked quite a few questions about the ability of the gifteds to find each other - she seemed a bit too interested, if you know what I mean. At least she was able to successfully protect the... what? werebear's?... target last night.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wintywinty

Wilwa was lynched, therefore my top two candidates for Morph/Traitor are Izzy and Pitchwife, with Pitchwife being on top, due to the fact that it seems as though Wilwa was almost following his lead, voting for her 4th option, and only 4 minutes after Pitchwife voted Paranoia.

That would have been a pretty bold move if Pitch was Wilwa's packmate, and it doesn't seem likely they would have taken such a risk. Wilwa knew she'd been under suspicion most of the Day, and she had to have known it was at least possible she would be lynched, so I find it hard to believe she would have been so quick to link herself with Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Right, I'm here at last.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

You know, reading this over, Pitch, I'm finding you really intersting right now.

Let's start with your analysis of yesterday's votes and actions, and your, you know, overall willingness to attack someone who so far hasn't posted or said anything at all today. Yes, lets.

Noia, I agree it was bad form to vote you without letting you answer to my suspicion before, but I waited for you to show up as long as I reasonably could, and indeed a bit longer. My problem is that DL in my timezone is 5am, which is an hour before I have to get up for work, so except for weekends, I have to vote hours before you come online. As deplorable as this is, I don't think it should keep me from voting you if I think I have good reasons to do so. Nor vice versa.

So the question remains whether I really had good reasons. I thought I had at the time, but looking back, I'm a lot less confident about them now than I was yesterDay. Anyway, I'll try to explain how I got there.

Originally Posted by Noia

I don't think I really have to defend myself on the BG vote; I put down why I voted her, reasons beyond the "omg the lists didn't match up" and I did indeed look at both lists; the explanation made absolutely no sense to me and it still doesn't, because the titles were different, and she had obviously reworked bits and pieces of it. There was simply no other conclusion I could come to in my mind. And I honestly think the person who looks the worse out of what happened in the last 20 or so minutes is Willwuffin, because no matter how I read her posts there it all felt like the same thing.

"I really think BG is innocent but I'm not going to deign to tell you guys why I think so, despite how blatantly suspect she is being. I'm going to blithely throw my vote away on sally, and continue saying that even though I think BG is really innocent, I'm not going to meaningfully help her in any shape or form."

Yes, you gave reasons beyond the list issue, and I believe I said in my summary yesterDay that your vote actually looked the best in terms of reasoning. And about wilwa, she definitely looked the worst, but I thought there was a meager chance that she'd been actually trying to help but gave up because no one was listening (her throwaway vote would still have been bad, of course). Thankfully, that's cleared up now.

Still, I thought and think it was reasonable to assume that at least one of the morphs was involved in the process of lynching BG (to avoid the word bandwagon, if you object to it), simply because of the other players alive yesterDay (beside wilwa), only Lottie had made a vote at all, and I didn't see her as morphish. That left of course the non-voters, but how do you draw conclusions from a non-vote?

From there on, it was basically a process of elimination, as Rikae put it... although I'm afraid the last stages of it weren't entirely logical.

Originally Posted by Noia

On another note, when Shasta and Izzy showed up to defend themselves, you were readily willing to relent; you went from one to the next and then finally me, but as interesting as that is, you completely ignored Zul. It's one thing to vote an innocent with a reason and turn out wrong. It's another thing to vote an innocent without saying a bloody thing, being wrong, and skating by. Something's off there.

I don't believe I 'entirely ignored' Zil. I noted the lack of a reason given in his vote post, and his sealing BG's fate; he replied to that and explained himself, and it made sense to me. Also I didn't and still don't see him acting the way I think a Zilmorph would. (Add with hindsight that our late and lamented Lottie, who claims she can 'totally read him', had him in the 'probable innocent' category in her last list.)

Shasta's defense convinced me; Izzy's not so much, at least initially; but as she got more and more exasperate, I started developping doubts about her, and likewise with wilwa.

And there was the point which you adress here:

Originally Posted by Noia

Also, to those who are going "He was in the middle of the BG voters where he can skate on by!!!!" Really let me ask you; are you just trying to get on my nerves with that logic? Morphs, Wolves, and Mafia will vote in any order they please. And I don't really call it bandwagoning when someone can provide decent reasoning; bandwagoning to me is just simply voting for someone with an overall rehashed reason.

Originally Posted by Noia

But let's have a hypothetical situation. Let's say I was a morph. Would I have any reason to vote BG, or further add fuel to the fire when it looked like she was going to get lynched on her own anyway? Nope. It's like last game. Every post of her's added fuel to the metaphorical fire, and the more I looked at her the worse I felt about her. I said as much, and I gave reasoning for why I felt the way I did. If I was Morphanoia, I would have known she was innocent. I probably would have thrown an insubstantial vote on someone I was more suspicious earlier in the day on say... Eomer. That way I have a throwaway that isn't a, you know, obvious throwaway.

Well, the thing about morphs in the middle isn't of course a universal truth, but still I think it rather more probable than anything else, given that scum of any description don't want to stick out. And saying 'If I were a morph I wouldn't have done x but rather y' is a standard wolfish defense, as you mention yourself.

Originally Posted by Noia

Another thing is your basically list topping suspicion of Wilowil.. and yet you still vote me. Something's off there, considering you've basically link her with me/shasta/izzy as the definite member of whatever morphpack is on the ship. Care to explain why you voted me above the one constant amongst your conjecture?

OK, what happened in my head in the final two or three hours before my vote was that on the one hand I was becoming more and more confused about Izzy and wilwa, while on the other hand the suspicion I had against you went into a sort of feedback loop and developped into something not entirely dissimilar to a certain psychic disorder from which your nick is derived - to the point where I actually saw wilwa sharing my suspicion of you as a point for her innocence, instead of the other way round, as would have been more reasonable.

"Well well if you're a wolf you're dangerous!" Doesn't cut it. That is always a horrible reason, because you are basically bringing a justification into the game that boils down to "what if they're a wolf?"

I stand corrected, sir.

All in all, I think I had some valid points against you. Whether they really added up to a conclusive case at the time... I thought they did, but I'm not that sure anymore. If I could have read your response before having to vote, I most likely wouldn't have voted you. What I probably should have done is stick with the 'one constant', wilwa, and give you the benefit of doubt till toDay.

And now that we know wilwa was indeed a morph, you obviously look a lot better - I have a hard time seeing her bandwagoning on my vote as morph-on-morph; have to think it through, but at the moment it doesn't seem likely to me.

Rikae, I hope this also answers your question about my vote. As for the other one: of course the Defender or Assassin wouldn't have known any morphs. What I was trying to say in the post you quoted were two independent points:
1. If Eomer happened to be right about another morph beside sally, that would have been a good reason for them to get rid of him.
2. Whether 1. is true or not, they may also have thought him one of the remaining Agents. He certainly behaved mysteriously enough on Day 1 to smell gifted.
Sorry if I didn't make that clear enough.

Phew. This took me ages to write, now let me see what happened in the meantime.

[Pitchwife]

winty - if I understand you correctly, you're saying that I first killed Eomer because he suspected me and next killed Lottie because she suspected me. Now my reasoning may not always be flawless, but I like to believe that I wouldn't be daft enough to leave such a clear trail. Especially not since I could have foreseen that I'd be in for some scrutiny toDay after my vote and wilmorph 's wagoning on it. (And yeah, I realize I've just used the classic "I wouldn't do that as a wolf" defense I talked about above. Nevertheless.)

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That would have been a pretty bold move if Pitch was Wilwa's packmate, and it doesn't seem likely they would have taken such a risk. Wilwa knew she'd been under suspicion most of the Day, and she had to have known it was at least possible she would be lynched, so I find it hard to believe she would have been so quick to link herself with Pitch.

But if Wilwa is an experienced wolf, then she will know that everybody will discount that possibility, simply because it was "too simple", thereby allowing her to do it.

X'd with Pitchie