WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[Macalaure]

Loslote

I suspected her, but without really knowing why, so here's the analysis. She also seems to have been forgotten by everyone, so I hope this might change it a little.

She's the first to make actual points, which one could interpret as a wolf trying to look helpful and not banter too much. However, her following posts are rather "light" in points. A lot about roles etc. and a lot about people's possible hints.

Her first actual suspicion is only on page 4 - erroneously thinking Nerwen's hint might point to her being Persephone. She believes the theory that Eonwe is the cursed, but doesn't want to lynch him (sensible opinion, I think).

Makes a list which has everybody innocent except for slight suspicions towards me and Autume. (Not stepping on too many people's toes. However, it's just a mid-Day1 list.) Disagrees with me about Zeus's almightiness. (Being the most mighty and being almighty is not the same.) She agrees with me that we shouldn't lynch BG, and suggests me instead (and Autume). She keeps on stating to want to lynch me and her multiple times, and that I find very suspicious. In her list, Tum and me stood out as most suspicious, but it looked more like we were 2/10 in a sea of 1/10. Looking at #231, #234, #260, it really seems to me like she used the list to be able to justify singling out two and then being able to keep those around as prime suspects without having to answer any more questions about it.

She votes Eonwe since Tum and I are not going to be lynched, Eonwe is probably the cursed, and everybody else is still innocent. She notes that BG-voters need to be looked at. Sensible, but also convenient for a wolf who voted someone else. She covers the case of Eonwe being lynched by saying if he's innocent, we need to look at Nogrod (the unpicked cursed villager is an ordo in the tally. If the theory is right, we definitely would have lynched an innocent).

ToDay she starts with suppressed anger and a new list, which looks suspiciously like the old one, except that Nogrod is suspicious now, too. She backs off me a little bit. She suspects Nogrod because he didn't vote for Eonwe. Not exactly a great argument, but alright, except that she could have made the same point yesterDay, after his vote, already. But yesterDay she was content to carry only Tum and me around.


There are several things that could be both evil or good, but the way she handled her suspicions of Autume and me, talks about the BG-waggon and Eonwe's possible innocence (each on its own fine, but in combination it looks bad), and the reason for suspecting Nogrod look rather bad. Prime suspect now, since I lack other strong suspects at the moment.

[Macalaure]

*tries to think of a polite word to describe the Eonwe-bandwaggon*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

*tries to think of a polite word to describe the Eonwe-bandwaggon*

Don't bother, Mac, they'll just think you're dropping Lover-hints.

About Eönwë: what I'm not keen on is that everyone who votes him seems to be doing it for a completely different reason.

(Not to mention that certain parties *cough* Nogrod *cough* have seemingly ignored the points other people have already made against their arguments.)

For my own part, I do think the fact that the Seer voted Steve while making the cryptic "neg 4" remark– and got killed in the Night may be significant. I've said why I don't think Boro actually dreamed an Eonwolf, but if such he is, it might be enough if the pack thought he had.

Not that I've decided to vote him yet, at all.

EDIT:X'd with everyone again.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I didn't overlook it, of course. You overlooked that I commented on it.

The fact that you commented on it was meant to be part of the point - you're picking and choosing. You mention it for a matter of wording, then say that I didn't use the argument Day 1.

Anyway, you said you would look for Nogrod depending on Eonwe's innocence. Eonwe did not get lynched, and your reasons for Nogrod toDay are independent of Eonwe's role, but are founded on Nogrod not voting for him. The case you presented toDay was readily available yesterDay.

No, I said that if Steve was proven innocent, we really needed to look at Nog. The fact that he wasn't lynched and proven innocent doesn't negate this, it simply makes it less obvious.

You only picked this one item out of my reasons to suspect you. I usually do that when I'm a wolf: picking the few things I can defend myself against to discredit a whole analysis.

Alright:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Loslote

I suspected her, but without really knowing why, so here's the analysis. She also seems to have been forgotten by everyone, so I hope this might change it a little.

She's the first to make actual points, which one could interpret as a wolf trying to look helpful and not banter too much. However, her following posts are rather "light" in points. A lot about roles etc. and a lot about people's possible hints.

Yeah, that's me. I'm rather silly. I'm rather okay with this.

Her first actual suspicion is only on page 4 - erroneously thinking Nerwen's hint might point to her being Persephone. She believes the theory that Eonwe is the cursed, but doesn't want to lynch him (sensible opinion, I think).

Wait, by "only" do you mean I should have waited longer? Like, for instance, Nog, The Phantom, and you did?

Makes a list which has everybody innocent except for slight suspicions towards me and Autume. (Not stepping on too many people's toes. However, it's just a mid-Day1 list.) Disagrees with me about Zeus's almightiness. (Being the most mighty and being almighty is not the same.) She agrees with me that we shouldn't lynch BG, and suggests me instead (and Autume). She keeps on stating to want to lynch me and her multiple times, and that I find very suspicious. In her list, Tum and me stood out as most suspicious, but it looked more like we were 2/10 in a sea of 1/10. Looking at #231, #234, #260, it really seems to me like she used the list to be able to justify singling out two and then being able to keep those around as prime suspects without having to answer any more questions about it.

I was partly trying to remind Tum that there were other options, something she adamently denies existed.

Could you explain the bold? I'm afraid I don't follow your argument or your example.

She votes Eonwe since Tum and I are not going to be lynched, Eonwe is probably the cursed, and everybody else is still innocent. She notes that BG-voters need to be looked at. Sensible, but also convenient for a wolf who voted someone else. She covers the case of Eonwe being lynched by saying if he's innocent, we need to look at Nogrod (the unpicked cursed villager is an ordo in the tally. If the theory is right, we definitely would have lynched an innocent).

I was under the impression that he would be labled "Dionysis." The BeiGei voters, especially later on, were suspicious. Convenient? More like I thought that particular bandwagon was very ill-advised and wanted no part in it.

ToDay she starts with suppressed anger and a new list, which looks suspiciously like the old one, except that Nogrod is suspicious now, too. She backs off me a little bit. She suspects Nogrod because he didn't vote for Eonwe. Not exactly a great argument, but alright, except that she could have made the same point yesterDay, after his vote, already. But yesterDay she was content to carry only Tum and me around.

Supressed anger, yes. Could have made the same point, yes. As it happens, I did.

There are several things that could be both evil or good, but the way she handled her suspicions of Autume and me, talks about the BG-waggon and Eonwe's possible innocence (each on its own fine, but in combination it looks bad), and the reason for suspecting Nogrod look rather bad. Prime suspect now, since I lack other strong suspects at the moment.

Why is the combination particularly bad?

If I'm alive toMorrow, I'll have analysis, don't worry. I was pressed for time toDay, as I had stated explicitly more than once.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Could you explain the bold? I'm afraid I don't follow your argument or your example.

The arguments you gave in your list against Tum and me were not exactly strong. That's fine for a mid-Day1 list, but to keep those two names around til deadline without considering voting anybody else, that's not good. And you didn't consider voting anybody else: you did not want to vote for Eonwe, you just didn't mind it. And while you talked about Nogrod, you didn't ponder voting for him, but maintained Tum and me based on little reasoning.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Why is the combination particularly bad?

Because it's a way to supply yourself with suspects for Day2 in a very convenient manner. If A dies we have to look at the people voting her, if B dies, the person creating the case against him should be looked at.

[Macalaure]

Voting somebody random instead of Eonwe? Not really. I asked around what people's options were, so that we would not consider lynching someone random, but one that is suspected.

Lottie and Nienna were the ones I was planning to analyse toDay, but time restricted me to Lottie. I can't offer any good points against Nienna, but I do remember having a bad feeling reading any of her posts.

[Macalaure]

I guess it won't work, though. It doesn't look like we'll be able to decide on one person...

[Rikae]

Suspicion doesn't necessarily equal good reasoning, but you know that.

[Rikae]

At any rate, at least we'll be able to learn something from Steve's role, I'd guess.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, at least we'll be able to learn something from Steve's role, I'd guess.

Yes, and there's also the fact that– as someone said– we'll just have to do this all again toMorrow if he lives.

Well, then–

++Steve

EDIT:X'd with a host, including a lot of vote-posts.

[autume98]

I'm thankful for the more time we had toDay, and then this idea hits me. Why not lynch someone else, and have the Hunter go after Eonwe. If he dies than we know he's a wolf. The big flaw we'd have to pull this all of in nine minutes, and the Hunter would have to see this post. So basically a bad plan this late toDay.

Edit: x-ed w/several

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by autume98

I'm thankful for the more time we had toDay, and then this idea hits me. Why not lynch someone else, and have the Hunter go after Eonwe. If he dies than we know he's a wolf. The big flaw we'd have to pull this all of in nine minutes, and the Hunter would have to see this post. So basically a bad plan this late toDay.

Edit: x-ed w/several

The Hunter is not a "smart" Hunter. Whoever xe picks dies no matter what role they have. So all we really do is waste our Hunter and kill Steve anyway.

Also, I think we had enough people willing to vote Nog to swing a Nog-lynch.

++Nog

Make of it what you will, and follow it up if you want.

[autume98]

Thanks for clearing that up Lottie. So another reason that's a bad idea.

I'm going to vote for:

++Nog

Edit: x-ed with Nerwen

[Eönwë]

Unless anything major happens in the next 3 minutes, I'm voting for Nogrod.

[Macalaure]

Not going to go the Nogrod-way toDay.

[Glirdan]

1 Minute left to vote

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The arguments you gave in your list against Tum and me were not exactly strong. That's fine for a mid-Day1 list, but to keep those two names around til deadline without considering voting anybody else, that's not good. And you didn't consider voting anybody else: you did not want to vote for Eonwe, you just didn't mind it. And while you talked about Nogrod, you didn't ponder voting for him, but maintained Tum and me based on little reasoning.

That doesn't explain the bold, but okay. I did look at other people, but none jumped out at me as suspicious. Nog was not a vote option on Day 1.

Because it's a way to supply yourself with suspects for Day2 in a very convenient manner. If A dies we have to look at the people voting her, if B dies, the person creating the case against him should be looked at.

I see your point. And I admit that it's a good one. But they were both suspicious. What would you prefer, I wrote them all off as being wolvish to pursue and wallowed about with no suspicions?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nog was not a vote option on Day 1.

Neither was Autume.