WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

"She for whom the moon doth shine, what dost thou think of Eomer's vote?"

Meaningful? Or just an in-joke that no-one else can understand?

Inside joke, Shasta and Nerwen always call each other by overly romantic nicknames. So he was directing the question to Nerwen.

I think the reason Shasta was killed is probably simply because he didn't vote. On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

Even though TEW ended up being a wolf, that whole bandwaggon still erks me. He had posted only once when people started voted him, and it was banter. It's kind of mean killing someone when they aren't around to even try and defend themselves, and haven't really had the chance to say anything.

For the TEW voters, I think Skip's vote looks alright, he had to vote fairly early in the Day, when for all he know TEW would be around quite a bit, and he went off a gut thing, which is a normal thing when you vote early, not usually much to go on. Fea's vote is okish. Boro's vote atleast has a pretty good reason, kind of.

It's Lottie's that bugs me. She had done this whole 'check' system, and ended up voting for someone that had no 'checks' for anything, rather than one of the people she had given 'wolf checks' for. Here's the post:

Originally Posted by Lottiepop

Anyways, the only people who got checks under "wolf" are Agan, Vanilwuffin, and Boro. Boro also has three "innocent" checks, however, while Vanilwuffin has one "innocent" check. The only other people of note were Fea, who got a whopping four "cobbler" checks and one "innocent" check, and Eomer and TEWie, who got nothing. I might vote for one of them for being so quiet.

So there were 3 of us who had a 'check' for wolf, but when she voted none of us had votes so maybe she didn't want to throw away a vote. But she seemed to really think Fea could be the cobbler, though later said she'd almost definitely not vote for her. So why vote for someone who had no 'wolf' checks, over someone who had four 'cobbler' ones? At the time she voted, voting for Fea would not have been a throwaway. Oh, I know now you're saying 'but she sealed TEWs fate, she mustn't be a wolf', but when she voted Boro had basically said he'd be voting for TEW, and I had recently said I was planning to before I changed my mind. So it could still be a wolf on wolf.

I don't know, out of the 4 votes for him, this one is the fishiest.

So, I have to go to work in about 3 hours, and my shift extends past the DL, so I will be voting very early.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwa

I think the reason Shasta was killed is probably simply because he didn't vote. On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

I don't know, I never get the "trail less" kill theory while the seer is still alive. I would think losing one of their own this soon they would be trying to kill the seer with each choice, at least that's my opinion.

Unless they think they've got the seer already and maybe feared the ranger picked up on it too and would immediately protect. Or they could feel like they aren't necessarily going to grab the attention of the seer this soon, so they can go for some other, less predictable kills.

I just always operate under the opinion, as a wolf, get the seer first, but that could be more because I tend to be ousted by the seer at some point or another, so getting rid of seer before xe can do so is always my top priority. Might not be the same for all packs, I admit.

[skip spence]

Okay, I’ve been looking at the voting yesterDay to see what can be learned from it, trying to be reasonably objective. We must also remember that DL is in the middle of the night for the Europeans and that they therefore as a general rule must vote earlier than the North American who often can be around up until the DL.

*First there was Eomer giving Greenie an early vote. To me it looked like a random yet honest vote. But it is of course possible that he’s wolf trying to look inconspicuous too.

*Then Greenie votes Fea, because she stood out for being smug and confessing to be a wolf. Looks potentially a bit opportunistic too me (in the scenario that Fea is innocent and she is not), but I understand she had to be in bed early and can perhaps be excused for being a bit hasty.

*Third to vote is Pitch who puts Fea in a tight spot, giving her a second vote. Her post are “content-free and studiedly inscrutable” and her defence of earlier post are “over-defensive”. As a second vote for anyone at this point can be crucial this vote should be remembered.

*Then Agan votes Sally because she is very quiet and because Agan don’t want to be part of a Fea bandwagon. Agan also states that she considered voting Elf-warrior for the same reasons.

I then give Elf-warrior his first vote.

*Sally votes Pitch because “[his] case against Fea puts him on my hit list, because....well, it's just not quite right somehow”

*With less than an hour until the DL, Fea gives Elf his second vote. “not because I particularly suspect her (I reserve opinions until Day 2, as everyone knows) but because I have nobody better to vote for” It’s notable how careful she is not to mention self-preservation, as this surely is an issue at this point?


Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally


*Elf is first to make the move, going for Fea to save his own furry backside. This decision makes me think better of Fea, as there were other alternatives the wolf could have gone for as well. It doesn’t clear her.

*Next to vote is Wilwa who in a rather non-committing way opens up the Pitch-alternative by giving him a second vote, something which can be seen as an indirect support for Elf, which also Agan has pointed out. Wilwa states that she feels pretty good about the girls on the line, and has already said she’d probably vote for either Elf of Pitch. If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me. Yet she goes for Pitch.

*Then, just before the bell tolls, Lottieand Boro seals Elf-wolf’s fate. Although anything is possible, I really don’t think they would've made that choice if either one of them are wolves. Unless Fea, or to a lesser degree Pitch, is also a wolf, in which case it would make perfect sense.

People I feel slightly better about now: Fea (more for Elf's vote on her that her vote on him), Boro and Lottie

People I feel more worried about: Wilwa (and I don't really like her accusation of Lottie either) Edit: and, I forgot (thanks Nerwen!), Sally, who also appears with a plead not too lynch Wolf, I mean Elf. But too obvious if she also is a wolf perhaps?

[wilwarin538]

Uh, so I hate doing this, but I really have to go, and I definitely won't be able to come back (can't go on the internet at work). I wish I had more time to make a stronger case on someone, but I don't

++Lottie

Based off her vote yesterDay and the inconsistency that it had with her 'check' system, not very strong, but all I got right now. My participation should be far better next Day.

[Nerwen]

As several people have asked about this: Shasta's "she for whom the moon doth shine" definitely refers to me. This is a long-standing joke between us.

Originally Posted by Skip

Then, just before the bell tolls, Lottie and Boro seals Elf-wolf’s fate. Although anything is possible, I really don’t think they would've made that choice if either one of them are wolves. Unless Fea, or to a lesser degree Pitch, is also a wolf, in which case it would make perfect sense

I'm not sure about that. Say Lottie was a wolf and so was Fea– then what's to stop Lottie voting Pitch, who couldn't, in this version of events, also be a wolf?

I don't say this is quite conclusive, mind you– either of them might have guessed the other would vote The Elf-warrior, and so written him off.

Originally Posted by Skip

People I feel more worried about: Wilwa (and I don't really like her accusation of Lottie either) Edit: and, I forgot (thanks Nerwen!), Sally, who also appears with a plead not too lynch Wolf, I mean Elf. But too obvious if she also is a wolf perhaps?

No, because all the reasons people were giving for voting EW were pretty flimsy– it wouldn't look that surprising if someone objected. The problem's more the other way: it really isn't that surprising that someone objected. That is, it's a long way from being a clear sign of guilt, for either the Cupcake or the Muffin. (Interesting that Sally hung around the whole time though, when she'd cast her vote ages ago.)

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think the reason Shasta was killed is probably simply because he didn't vote. On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

That's nice, Wilwa– but people have been talking about this very point a lot, and have already raised the question of why the wolves didn't try for the Seer, or eliminate one of the Elf-voters who might be hard to lynch now, or frame someone.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Even though TEW ended up being a wolf, that whole bandwaggon still erks me. He had posted only once when people started voted him, and it was banter. It's kind of mean killing someone when they aren't around to even try and defend themselves, and haven't really had the chance to say anything.

It irks you that the village caught a wolf on Day One? Really?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So there were 3 of us who had a 'check' for wolf, but when she voted none of us had votes so maybe she didn't want to throw away a vote. But she seemed to really think Fea could be the cobbler, though later said she'd almost definitely not vote for her. So why vote for someone who had no 'wolf' checks, over someone who had four 'cobbler' ones? At the time she voted, voting for Fea would not have been a throwaway. Oh, I know now you're saying 'but she sealed TEWs fate, she mustn't be a wolf', but when she voted Boro had basically said he'd be voting for TEW, and I had recently said I was planning to before I changed my mind. So it could still be a wolf on wolf.

I don't know, out of the 4 votes for him, this one is the fishiest.

Thing is, though, it's not really clear what reasons Lottie had for voting EW at the time, and I'm not sure "cobbler checks" mean much when you're talking about Fea. (I'd certainly like Lottie to clarify this when she gets back, however.)

I actually agree that it's at least possible for her vote to have been wolf-on-wolf; however, calling it "the fishiest" of the four is quite a stretch, indeed. Not to mention all those other votes that weren't for a known wolf.

So, Wilwa isn't looking too good, after this post. But then she goes ahead and votes Lottie, who is probably not going to be lynchable toDay– not a good example of lupine opportunism.

I'm going to have to vote now, though, and it will probably be Vanilwa Muffin.

EDIT:typo.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–

++Wilwa.

I probably won't be back before DL, so good luck!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It irks you that the village caught a wolf on Day One? Really?

While I find it difficult to get a read on Wilwa, I think this is pretty unfair word-twisting, Nerwen. I believe she has the same feeling I have about EW's lynching, but she just phrased it in a different way.

Just a note: all these nicknames are confusing me. It's hard to tell who you're talking about, referencing various confectionary treats. I'll probably vote for those who use this ploy too frivolously.

[satansaloser2005]

Now this is interesting....

Originally Posted by skip spence

Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally

How could he possibly know that? Skip, care to explain?

I can't decide if he's going by statistics or actual knowledge. *ponders*




A list, I see, a list indeed, but first a few thoughts.

Agan and Greenie's cases on me make no sense, Greenie's especially. While before I had thought Eomer a possible top suspect, Agan seemed to hop onto me quite suddenly, and since I started suspecting her she's pressed harder. A possible panicked wolf? Greenie, however, looks a wolf based on most of her behavior. Her vote for Wilwa (and then for me, when she had said in a closely previous post that she was so far undecided on me) makes me extremely worried.

I think that either Eomer or Greenie HAS to be a wolf, because while I don't think them being wolves together is an option any longer, I think they're both rather independently evil, Greenie especially. I can't get a feel on who Agan's pack would be, which makes me think that perhaps she's not a wolf after all, but she, too, feels furry and opportunistic. Perhaps a Finnish pack? I'm not sure.

Greenie's #206 is the most worrisome post for me. She gives the possibility both of me catching Agan and me trying to set her up, and then quickly seems to decide that I must be the evil one in the situation. Quick hop of logic there.


Basically my main suspects are Greenie and Eomer, because I'm almost certain that one of them is evil, and Agan as third place. Skip too depending on how he answers my question above.


EDIT: x'd with Nerwen.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Agan and Greenie's cases on me make no sense, Greenie's especially. While before I had thought Eomer a possible top suspect, Agan seemed to hop onto me quite suddenly, and since I started suspecting her she's pressed harder. A possible panicked wolf? Greenie, however, looks a wolf based on most of her behavior. Her vote for Wilwa (and then for me, when she had said in a closely previous post that she was so far undecided on me) makes me extremely worried.

I think that either Eomer or Greenie HAS to be a wolf, because while I don't think them being wolves together is an option any longer, I think they're both rather independently evil, Greenie especially. I can't get a feel on who Agan's pack would be, which makes me think that perhaps she's not a wolf after all, but she, too, feels furry and opportunistic. Perhaps a Finnish pack? I'm not sure.

Greenie's #206 is the most worrisome post for me. She gives the possibility both of me catching Agan and me trying to set her up, and then quickly seems to decide that I must be the evil one in the situation. Quick hop of logic there.


Basically my main suspects are Greenie and Eomer, because I'm almost certain that one of them is evil, and Agan as third place. Skip too depending on how he answers my question above.

Almost forgot to apologise for being the main cause of Greenie's lynching. Sometimes you just get an idea in your head and it stays there. Got it very wrong.

A bit cheeky of me then, perhaps, to highlight this post from Sally, but I'm doing some re-reading and this jumps out as being very suspicious.

She has decided that either Eomer or Green "HAS to be a wolf" and I'm not sure why she would come to this conclusion - especially when she clearly states that she has two other suspects.

My main reason for suspecting her is that this move looks like a subtle manipulation attempt. I was highly suspected the day before, correct? Almost the one most likely to be lynched. What better way to get two birds with one stone than to push a relatively unsuspected (until that day) villager ahead of Mr Public Enemy while simultaneously forging a connexion between the two? Pushing this theory cleverly plants the idea that, when Green's innocent nature is revealed, Eomer is somehow more suspicious than he was.

I dunno, this just seems off to me. Maybe I'm being paranoid (who am I kidding - it's what the game is all about!) I don't know how she can narrow down the list like that. We all have top suspects - I myself yesterday said that I'd want Loslote killed if the choice of Greenie was wrong. But Sally's wording seems evil to me.

[skip spence]

So, I know we are all getting rather jumpy regardless of our allegiances but it would be interesting to know who you would consider putting your vote on at this point. Cards on the table now, and remember, no time to play around any longer...

Eomer? He's in vogue no doubt...

Pitchwife perhaps? He has had a smooth ride so far, despite some potentially suspect and shadowy activities...

Lottie?

Or me? On the account of this alleged cobblery?

No shadow has fallen on Aganzir either for some reason. Always worrisome though...

Nerwen?

Sally?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well Skip, since you ask, I am of course not feeling good about anybody right now. I'm feeling worse about Sally and Loslote than anyone else; I am usually worried about Nerwen and always suspicious of Aganzir; and I'm afraid that the only reason I'm not worrying overly much about you and Pitch is that I don't know you as well as the previous two.

I think we'd all do well, though, to take a few minutes, breathe deeply, and consider every single one of the villagers rationally. There's a danger of getting tunnel-vision at this stage.

It's good advice for myself, certainly.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

So, I know we are all getting rather jumpy regardless of our allegiances but it would be interesting to know who you would consider putting your vote on at this point. Cards on the table now, and remember, no time to play around any longer...

Eomer? He's in vogue no doubt...

Pitchwife perhaps? He has had a smooth ride so far, despite some potentially suspect and shadowy activities...

Lottie?

Or me? On the account of this alleged cobblery?

No shadow has fallen on Aganzir either for some reason. Always worrisome though...

Nerwen?

Sally?

*applauds* Ooo, nice villainous conversational style you've got there, Skip. I do hope you're a baddie, now, because it'd be such a waste if you're not!

EDIT:X'd with Eomer.