WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I don't at all care how suspicious it makes me look to not be around all Day and then just spontaneo-vote for somebody I've not expressed feelings about. Particularly since I'm not going to bother trying to make myself look good by giving you a bunch of bogus reasons as to why this doesn't look suspicious. Of course it does, and I'd be lying if I was like, "No, really, it's completely legitimate to just show up and vote for somebody without giving any good reason."

++Skip

I would much rather see him go than Greenie. If I'm wrong, well, my bad. And if I'm right, I hope the wolves kill me so the seer can get another night.

And more importantly, I hope the seer's dream targets are all still alive so that we get a few known innocents instead of just one or none.

[skip spence]

Oh, hello Fea!

Shame on you though.

Gotta go now and since I don't know whether I'll be back before DL:

++Sally

[Pitchwife]

Interesting choice of Night-kill. If Boro was killed because he looked gifted to the wolves, I'd guess he would have seemed more seerish than rangerish - he didn't talk about a lot of people, but was quite explicit and decided about who he didn't want to see lynched, so maybe they thought he was protecting a dreamed innocent.

And wilwa turned out an ordo - which means we have our first bandwagon against a known innocent to analyze. I'll have to look closer at skip toDay, and maybe reconsider about Greenie.

Originally Posted by Agan

Sally and Pitch, why did you leave voting until so late?

Why indeed? I could kick myself - one of the few Days ever when I have a chance to actually stay around till DL and make a difference, and I botch it. Pity for wilwa.
Basically, I had some last-minute second thoughts about Eomer - nothing concrete, more a concern that I might be tunnel-visioning and exaggerating things (last time I had too much confidence that I'd found a wolf, it led to a little disaster - see Nerwen's game), so I went back to skim through his posts once more in a hurry, was none the wiser (it was getting late too) and decided to go with my suspicion anyway. Now the stupid thing is that my computer clock isn't quite in synch with the Downs clock, and I hadn't refreshed for a while, so I miscalculated the time I had left by a few crucial minutes. Blargh.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But, Lottie, did you notice that Sally's reasoning is completely the other way round? She regards Wilwa as having been doomed by the time you voted, and argues from that that your vote on Eomer couldn't have been wolf-on-wolf:

I was the first to vote Eomer, yeah, but Sally and Pitchie had both expressed suspicion of him. I'm not going to add Agan there, because I don't remember if she expressed suspicion of him before or after I voted for him. It wasn't a throwaway; I was honestly trying to get him lynched.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lottie - gave a pretty big gifted hint yesterday but is still alive. Pretty suspicious of her now.

I did what now?

Originally Posted by skip spence

I mean. like Agan says, the cobbler has no way of knowing the identity of the wolves at the moment. Doesn't this mean that cobbler can just as easily do the wolves harm as he/she can be of help to them, really? In the light of this, going for the cobbler when there are two wolves out there seems odd. But as much as I'd like to quarrel with Agan about this, it looks like she's gone for the Day.

Oh, my...Agan and her cobber-hunting ferver again. She does this every game, you know, and someone always disagrees with her.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Lottie voted for Eomer for pretty suspect reasons. It was mostly mine and his comments about her alterered playing-style that did it I think. She also made a fairly obvious gifted hint, as someone else pointed out, yet lived through the night. On the other hand, her decisive role in killing off Wolf-warrior speaks for her.

As Eomer himself pointed out. And I still don't know what "fairly obvious hint" you guys are talking about!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I still don't know what "fairly obvious hint" you guys are talking about!

Presumably this

Originally Posted by Lottie #145

The only game he could have been talking about was Nerwen's. Now, the logical way to proceed with this line of reasoning is, "was she a wolf in that game"? As it happens, no. I was Gifted. If I die toNight, may I ask that Eomer not be overlooked?

and this

Originally Posted by Lottie #157

I was pointing out that you'd just liked my behavior now to my behavior as a Gifted, and that if I died, I'd be highly suspicious of you...although, now that I've said that, we have to take even that with a heaping spoonful of salt.

At the time, I took Eo's comment about your behaviour as an accusation of wolvery rather than a speculation about your possible giftedness, so it was actually you who dragged the question of gifteds out into the open; but I don't know that you'd have done that if you were one, so I don't see the big hint here.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Presumably this

and this

At the time, I took Eo's comment about your behaviour as an accusation of wolvery rather than a speculation about your possible giftedness, so it was actually you who dragged the question of gifteds out into the open; but I don't know that you'd have done that if you were one, so I don't see the big hint here.

Oh, that? I didn't even think about how it might look like a Gifted hint. It wasn't meant to be one.

[Pitchwife]

I must say I find Eomer's unrelenting crusade against Greenie more than a bit puzzling. This is the third Day in a row that he's voted her. Now I'm not at all familiar with his wolfing habits, but would he really do something that eye-catching and questionable as a wolf? Maybe someone who's had more experience with him could answer this.

[Pitchwife]

Speaking of voting patterns, does anybody see one here?

D2
Nerwen -> wilwa
Greenie -> wilwa (2)
skip -> wilwa (3)

D3
Greenie -> sally
skip -> sally (2)

Now I doubt that wolves would coordinate their votes so obviously, but if skip were the cobbler and thought he'd found a wolf in Greenie, it would make sense, wouldn't it? (Whether or not she is one is irrelevant to this.) I may be coming round to Agan's view after all...

[satansaloser2005]

Also, this was a strangely quiet last hour. Odd.


EDIT: Seriously, x'd? I'm not really complaining, but this is getting to become an accidental habit.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, kids, I'm afraid that's it from me for tonight. I'll try to check back before I go to work in the morning but I'm not promising anything.

Be good while I'm gone, and don't do anything dumb (like voting me, for instance).

[Aganzir]

So it's 2-5 or 3-4, whichever way you prefer to put it... As several others have been saying, if we don't get either a wolf or the cobbler today, we lose.

Originally Posted by skip

Doesn't this mean that cobbler can just as easily do the wolves harm as he/she can be of help to them, really? In the light of this, going for the cobbler when there are two wolves out there seems odd. But as much as I'd like to quarrel with Agan about this, it looks like she's gone for the Day.

In a way, yes - too bad for the wolves if the cobbler finds them innocent-looking enough to vote for one of them. But if both the cobbler and the wolves are alive tomorrow, well, they win. And at this point it's about as important to get rid of the cobbler as lynching a wolf is. It's really rather suspicious of you to try to save the cobbler (by saying that lynching her doesn't matter right now)...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

cobblers who survive into the endgame are very dangerous, because then the wolves can reveal openly, and they all vote together.

Fortunately, that doesn't always work. If there's just one wolf left, also the remaining ordo might try to reveal as a wolf. Or the two remaining villagers might try to counter the wolves' claim and with good luck they'd succeed in fooling the cobbler. The biggest reason a surviving cobbler is dangerous is because she can vote for herself - after all, she counts as an innocent.

Originally Posted by skip

Still I'd argue that would be more of a concern for the wolves trying to make sure they don't accidentally kill the cobbler, then a concern for the village trying to actively hunt down the cobbler.

So you're suggesting we should ignore the cobbler because there's a chance the wolves might kill her?

Originally Posted by sally

While before I had thought Eomer a possible top suspect, Agan seemed to hop onto me quite suddenly, and since I started suspecting her she's pressed harder.

I voted for you pretty randomly, but then you had bad reasons for suspecting me which made me actually suspicious of you. And calling me a possible panicked wolf? Nah. Me? Dear sally, you should know by now that if you want to suspect me without getting it thrown back into your face, your reasons should be extremely good.

Originally Posted by skip

Agan is acting rather cobblerish too, bringing up very minor points, making hens out of feathers in a somewhat disturbing manner.

Elaborate.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now I'm not at all familiar with [Eomer's] wolfing habits, but would he really do something that eye-catching and questionable as a wolf?

I find it rather unlikely... It's good to have proper suspicions on people, but I agree it would really be quite daring to go after the same person three days in a row.

Pitch has a good point about skip voting for the same person as Greenie.

Sorry if I've missed something but why does Greenie's innocence make Eomer a wolf? I really don't like it how some people are pushing it... What happens if Eomer is innocent? We lose.

Originally Posted by sally

However, we don't want to lynch the cobbler toDay either, as that would result in End Game as much as lynching an innocent.

Actually, we do. Not as much as a wolf, of course, but if we think somebody is the cobbler, we should go for them.

Also, if somebody fake-reveals as the seer, I think the real seer should hold revealing till tomorrow... For one of the wolves, a fake reveal equals admitting to being a wolf, and I don't think they can afford that now, so if there's a fake-reveal, it's almost certainly the cobbler. Which means the wolves kill her tonight, and we get an extra day.

I can most likely be around till DL too.

Grr I have no idea what we should do today... Personally I might consider lynching skip (getting the cobbler is better than nothing, and I'm rather positive that's him) and waiting an extra day before the seer reveals (if we get the cobbler - or a wolf - today, we're in the same situation tomorrow, except the seer has got one more dream), but then, I'm not a risk taker.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Agan, I'm glad to see I'm not alone in thinking Sally's 'Green or Eomer' post was suspicious.

I would find it helpful if people could spell out why they think Skip is the cobbler; I've seen that alluded to a few times and I don't really grasp it. He's a bit, let's dig into the book of cliches, beneath my radar.

Go on, convince me.

[Aganzir]

Not voting:
Nerwen, Pitch and Lottie. I might change my mind after reading through their posts (because that's what I have to do some time today), but they've looked innocent enough thus far.
Eomer, at least not before I know why everyone suddenly wants to get him lynched. Yes I voted for him a couple of days ago, but that was only because I figured he'd be my best bet at saving wilwa (whom I thought innocent). I will probably have to read through his posts as well.

Might vote:
skip, probably my first choice.
sally, she looks somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's because she's actually a wolf this time or because I tend to look at sally through wolf-coloured glasses.

I'm going to go through skip's posts in a while and see if I can find anything else, but he's been making some comments that have sent chills down my spine. Comments that make me think "This is how the cobbler tries to address the wolves!" And Pitch brought up a good point about his voting behaviour being very similar to Greenie's.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Loslote

As Eomer himself pointed out. And I still don't know what "fairly obvious hint" you guys are talking about!

To get this thing cleared up too (although Pitch's got the jest of it), and I'm paraphrasing:

Eomer: I'd prefer if Lottie was wielding a sword like a crazy person. She seems too careful now...

skip: Interesting. The last and only time I played with Lottie, she was just that person ie very outspoken and direct about her accusations.

Eomer: Oh really? But to be fair, when I last played with her she was actually very careful like she is now...

Lottie: Oh, but you have to remember, in that game I was a gifted (which can explain my carefulness)

You can see what I and Eomer are talking about, can't you? Then again, I agree with Pitch that Lottie probably would've been more careful if she actually is gifted ie the Seer.