Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

People I don't quite trust:

Greenie: Actually seems al right, I am definitely getting good vibes . . . she tends to make many lists. . . Yet I there is something not quite right. . . Garr i cannot put a finger on it. I will have to go over her posts later.
Glirdy; Doesn’t look too good. He is hardly around and doesn’t really commit himself. It seems like he is trying to stay out of the spotlight. . . Of course there is the chance that I am biased simply because he mentioned me as making him uneasy.
Sally: Acts in a way that is bound to attract attention and she hasn’t convinced me that she is a fellow orc. I would still be surprised if both Lottie and her turned out to be SoE.


People I feel somewhat al right about:

Lommy: Not only did I find her reasonable, but her voting was also in top class.
Phantom: Is acting like you would expect him to. . .or not to. . . He is being all Phantomish. He has his own reasoning and always ends up concluding that he a cunning and evil mastermind. But for all his tricks and weird reasoning, I have yet to see something that screams “pointy eared ladyboy”. He has been very nice to me in this game, which I don’t know if is good or bad, but for now I believe him innocent (of this particular crime. . . I still expect him to be the elusive dental floss thief?.
Shasta: At times he seems a bit too eager to point fingers, but in general his post has been rather concise and reasonable.
Foley: I like Foley’s posting even more than Shasta.
Vanilwa: I did not have much of an opinion about Wilwa during Day1, but today I think she has done a good job. I thought her “defensive” post about her reasoning was very sensible and I have a hard time seeing her being a SoE.
Nerwen: Nerwen is always tricky, her opinion is not easily swayed and if she spots a weakness in her opponents defence she attacks relentlessly as the red army during the Crimean offensive. I can follow her reasoning, although I do not agree with all her conclusions. . . she puzzles me, she always does. I would like to believe her innocent, but I am not 100% sure.



No proper opinion:


Zil: Seems helpful, I need to look over Zils posts again before saying any more.
Celuien; I think it is quite telling that I cannot remember a single thing said by Celuien in this game, but have to look through my notes and old posts.
Kath: Not around – Not good
Legate: He seems like his normal self. Dreadfully boring, but mostly sensible and harmless. . . and of course impossible to get a read on.
Mira: Very quiet – A definite improvement from her normally loud self.
Nog : He seems to act like he normally does, but has simply not been around enough for me to form a proper opinion.
Steve: Steve is one of the people I normally find suspicious, so it is actually an improvement that I don’t really have an opinion this time around. I might just vote for him as representative.



I hope I didn't leave anybody out or added someone that isn't in the game any more.


I will vote shortly and then I have places to be, so I will have to wait a bit before I look into the posts of Greenie and others.

[the phantom]

Some of you who haven't done so- any chance you could follow the example of Rune and Greenie and make a list in which you name every villager and give a short blurb about them, or at the very least place them into categories of suspicion?

And I cannot express how much I would like for everyone else to show up, particularly those whose participation was on the low end yesterday.

[Nogrod]

Finally around! I got the start of the Day to my memorystick earlier on the day at my mom's place and read it at home (to the end of the previous page). I hope I can switch to a place near the power-output before the charge runs out (so in the pub right now - and this being Saturday night, not the most peaceful environments for trying t think ).

So reading the rest now... but to be poked for sure.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I have got to run so here is the vote from the Runetopian jury.

++Steve for Representative

Call me an easily manipulated orc or whatever you please, but I want to see what he does with with the power.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Originally Posted by Phantom

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me. Phantom, I think your entire problem is that you assume everybody is a clone of you and thinks the way you think.

Originally Posted by Phantom

It's only "normal and logical" in the sense that you are curious and want to know.

Incorrect. It is normal and logical that you are being questioned as a player, by another player, about your actions. It seems to me (and I think I've said this before) that everytime someone dares to question the great Phantom, you go into a frenzy of "you're an idiot if you question me"!

Originally Posted by Legate

Lottie's wolvery is not such a big surprise either, and now if you ask me, I think that makes sally rather innocent.

Why do you think this, Legate?

Originally Posted by Rune

Yes the Phantoms actions are often weird and sometimes makes you want to crush your own skull with a sledgehammer, but that is just something you have to get used to. Personally I do not believe half his tales about how cunning he is, but I don't find him overly suspicious and I definitely do not see it as being beneficial to spend the entire day fighting him.

I disagree with this wholly and completely. the phantom should not be getting a pass for being the phantom.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: unknown orc

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

Incorrect. Just because the OoUA only made their alignment choice this past night, it doesn't follow that they hadn't already made their decision regarding what they were going to choose.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better

Why do you think this, Wilwa? You're the second person now that's thought this and haven't given any reason for thinking so. I see you actually answered this in #366, though. However, all I've seen you say here is a lot of 'would-he-wouldn't-he', so I'm not really buying into it. Plus you seem to be wishy-washy on Sally here. "I don't feel fantastic about her BUT I would be surprised", etc.

Originally Posted by pearl of the moon

If I keep poking at him, it's because he keeps thrashing madly when poked at– which naturally makes me wonder. I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

I agree with this statement.

Originally Posted by Sally

Remember, the post where I said "I was ill but we got a wolf, yay!"? That one? How is that suspicious exactly?

If you really want me to dissect it for you... Let me finish this post.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there. This looks a lot like the chainsawing phantom did earlier.

Originally Posted by she for whom the sun doth shine

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

I think the second is more likely than the first, to be honest. I think Lottie's probably smarter than to make such a mistake. The second scenario, however, seems likely to me.

Originally Posted by a run

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

*falls into a cloud of utter bliss*

Originally Posted by Sally

I think he meant a bit of both, at least subconsciously? I think he means that yesterDay he would have preferred to see me lynched, and he still feels that way toDay. More of a preference to having me dead than an outright attitude of "I wish Lottie was still alive", but the undertones -subtext, for Shasta's enjoyment- still remain the same. He wasn't happy with yesterDay's lynch, and that makes me nervous.

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

Originally Posted by proprietess of my heart's inn

Funny thing is, though– phantom himself says earlier that he would never do that.
You see, he argues that it's in his favour, too, but for the exact opposite reason.

No fair. I was going to point this out. .

I'm sure I'm Celuien-ing with a host, aren't I.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there.

Oh. Oh. Apologies, dear. I misunderstood your "I wish we'd have killed Sally and we still should" as "I wish we'd have killed Sally and I wish we'd done it yesterDay". Forgive me?

Originally Posted by Shasticle

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

No, as mentioned above, it was a misinterpretation. And you do have to admit that you looked unhappy about the results of the lynch, at least in a way.

Also, your reasoning, it fails. Lottie didn't defend herself, she defended Phantom. And I....I wasn't even here. You knew this. Yet you still say that you preferred me, someone who wasn't here to say anything on her behalf, to someone who did have the chance and didn't say anything particularly helpful? What if I'm the seer? What if you had gotten your wish, and I would have been killed yesterDay rather than Lottie? Would you be happy about testing your suspicions then? I don't think so. Or maybe you would be. Maybe I'm right after all. Either way, you need to either be consistent and accurate in your opinions and reasoning or you need to be lynched for spinning a case against me that isn't correctly founded.


Also, in regards to Nog's post below, I concur (on the Phantom bits). I'm not saying that I understand him, I'm saying that I can see reasoning for why his actions wouldn't be those of a wolf. Thus, for now, I want him alive.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's 391

[satansaloser2005]

For those who don't have time to read Shasta's list in full....

Innocent: Anyone who agrees with him
Undecided: People who haven't specifically agreed/disagreed with him....yet
Guilty: People who don't buy all his rubbish

Seriously, he even says that's his reasoning for who he trusts. Read the post.

Foley seems correct? How would you know if her suspicions are correct unless you know everyone's roles? There's no other way to know if someone is "correct", and if you know roles you're either the seer (who can't possibly know enough roles to make this kind of judgement) or a son of an elvish trollop. So....that leaves?

[Inziladun]

Finally home and got a minute or two free.

Green Category (not worried about ATM)

Lommy- Hasn't been around toDay, but giving the first three votes to Lottie, along with saying nothing particularly Elven, puts her here.

Nog- Not around much, which makes me a bit nervous, but what's he's said seems innocent enough.

Greenie- Nothing to ping the Elfdar. Didn't vote for Lottie, but I thought Sally was a reasonable choice at that time.

Eönwë- Made sense yesterDay, and I see no reason to distrust him.

Rune- Nothing odd jumps out.


Yellow Category (trying to keep an eye on)

Nerwen- I do like the way she's held tp's feet to the fire, but it strikes me that she called it 'harping' when I made two posts about the same issue.

Sally- Like Nog said, reason tells me she's unlikely to be an Elf, but I still don't much trust her.

Shasta- It's not so much what he's said; just that he seems very aggressive early on.

Legate- He's always a tough one for me to get a handle on, and this time he seems a bit more subdued than I remember.

Cel- Voted for Boro on a "gut feeling", which could easily have been an attempt to save Lottie. Hasn't been here toDay.

Gray Category (ambiguous)

Folwren- Seems different from the last time I played with her, but I don't know if it means anything.

Mira- Gave tp his third vote, apparently as a joke. I didn't find it that amusing, but she hasn't been around nearly enough to look at her in any detail. If nothing changes, could go to the 'Yellow" list toMorrow.

Kath- She's playing?

Glirdan- Hasn't been around much. I can't really remember anything in particular he's said or done.

Red Category (don't trust at all)

phantom- I don't know what he would look like as an Elf, but I wouldn't put anything past him. He may not be an actual Elf, but I'm inclined to wonder if he's not indeed the OoUA who chose the Elves, and is doing all he can to divert attention to himself.

Wilwa- Split her votes for Lottie and Sally, tying them, which alone would not be enough to put her here. But I also don't like the defensiveness I've seen toDay.

x/d with all since # 395.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Why?! It's exactly what Ordo-Phantom is ALWAYS hoping for! If I get Night-killed when there are gifteds still around I'm able to laugh and say with pride, "Ha! You killed the wrong person! Fooled you!"

Originally Posted by Me

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me.

My reference of you to a previous game was regarding an issue of overarching playing philosophy (the randomness of Day 1s). Core Werewolf beliefs are less likely to change game to game.

My point to Nerwen about other reveals in other games not mattering was regarding an issue of precise timing and persons involved. My point was that in this village at this time with this set of villagers there was zero chance of a counter-reveal.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I agree with this statement.

How can you agree with this when I have so completely trashed the notion? How does my bluff not make sense as an innocent?
FACTS:
1) I've done this exact thing multiple times as an innocent.
2) I did so at a time in which I was clearly not trying to influence the vote.
3) There was no negative risk whatsoever.

It makes perfectly obvious sense, and I'm getting sick of saying it. The only way it wouldn't make sense is if you're clinging to the idea of wanting me to be guilty and blinding yourself to logic.

The only thing about me you are right about is your point at the end, where Nerwen points out to Sally that I had specifically said the opposite of what Sally claimed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back... from now on it should be better with my participation (although today I am soon going to sleep). Also because I really do not feel like trying to start to decipher all toDay's talk, which anyway has been somewhat rotating around several groups arguing, as far as I can see; I would like to take a look at the voting of Reps from yesterDay, as I wanted to do in the beginning, and try to think about the process. Also so that I can make it clear for myself, start from that and that way make conclusions also for toDay and to still make a vote. First a short reply:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why do you think this, Legate?

(about what I said about sally being less suspicious now after Lottie is dead) I think it's been said already here several times also by other people: simply that I find it improbable that there would be. If I was for example to start thinking that there were two Wolves among the triangle of phantom and his voters, or actually, what is it, rectangle? Phantom, sally, Lottie and Mira, I would find phantom and Lottie far more likely, and in fact, now that I think of it, even Mira-Lottie, rather than sally-Lottie. It just came so out of the blue in the very beginning, unless it was planned beforehand, it would be awkward - and then again, if it was planned, I would expect the phantom to be the mastermind behind such a thing, so here we are back again at what I said before.

I am actually now already sort of working on a post about the reps and their votes in order to see if there can be and clue as to how many of them could have been SoE, what can it tell us etc., but it is becoming rather minute work and rather disconcerting, as the answers seem to sort of dissolve into nothing. Nonetheless, it helps me make better picture of people, so I will probably continue doing that still... and then maybe make some conclusions based on that, if it's worth anything.

EDIT: x-ed from sally onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, great, so now it looks like I am a Rep, that at least makes it sure that I will participate more toMorrow One more reason to finish my post and analysis... and to read toDay once again (though I may save it for after I have slept, then).

So, in a while...

[Inziladun]

Who to vote for toDay?
I'd probably go for Steve if he didn't already have two.
Legate's got two as well. Of yesterDay's reps, Lommy is the only one I might think of voting now. Hm.

Let's make it

++Shasta for rep

and see what he does.

x/d with Lommy x 2

[wilwarin538]

Ok, a list. Now I`m not really thinking too much about suspects right now, just who I want to vote as Rep, the suspects will come in the second half of the day.

Would be willing to vote for Representative

Because I trust them:

Celuien
Foley
Greenie
Legate
Nog
Rune
Lommy

Because I'd be curious what they do:

Kath: since she hasn't been on much, being a rep might get her to participate more
Mira: ditto
Shasta: because I'm really neutral about him, and I'm curious (basically because of Phantom's idea, we can put the people we trust into power later, now we should pick the ones we're unsure of)
Steve: ditto
Inzil: ditto

Would likely not be willing to vote for Representative

Nerwen: uhm, because I don`t trust her, but I wouldn`t say I`m neutral about her either, so I guess I`m leaning more to slightly suspicious, this is almost purely based on my interpretation of her tone and just some gut feelings
Phantom: he confuses me, and yesterDay he was rep and didn't vote, which seems like a waste to me, and I just don't want to
Sally: because she's way too unpredictable, and I don`t totally trust her at the moment


So I`m not really suspicious of too many people, but there are a lot that I trust, so likely I`ll vote for someone in one of my first two lists, I`m more leaning towards one of: Foley, Nog, Rune, Kath, Shasta or Steve.

x'ed with Shasta

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Plus you seem to be wishy-washy on Sally here. "I don't feel fantastic about her BUT I would be surprised", etc.

Yep, I totally am, I am utterfly confuzzled by her, same with Phantom. Sometimes I feel like they make sense, then the next second I have no idea what's going on with them.

[Nogrod]

Got a place beside a power-outlet...

Okay. It's D2 and after Lottielf's death we have a good reason to believe Sally is not an elf. I do agree with Nerwen that it is possible she is - like it is possible anyone of us is - but this is not the reason to lynch her because the odds are against her being an elf. And unlike with many others with whom we only have these ideas like "he could be a submarine-elf" or "she might have acted like that as an elf", with Sally we have the fact that an elf went in concord with her that openly in the beginning of the Day. That two elves did that is more improbable than any of our "could be's" or "might have's".

Although I must admit that everytime Sally opens her mouth I feel like suspecting her against the "facts".

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Trust Implicitly:
Shasta - Because he's a handsome devil who knows what he's talking about, of course.

Feel Okay About:
Folwren - Her suspicions yesterday seemed to be both genuine and correct.
Greenie - I agree with her almost as much as she seems to agree with me!
Lommy - A lot of gut on this one, to be sure, but her stance on Phantom yesterday seems to align with mine right now.
Nerwen - Probably my biggest innocent read at the moment, I agree with her like Greenie agrees with me.

No Real Read:
Celuien - Haven't seen enough.
Glirdan - See Celuien.
Kath - See Glirdan.
Mira - See Kath.
Steve - Nothing he's said thus far really stands out to me one way or the other.
Inzil - See Steve.
Wilwa - Wilwa is here because I'm getting about an equal amount of positive and negative vibes from the things she's been saying. I'll withhold judgment on her for now.

Slightly Suspicious:
Legate - I'm getting a bit of wishy-washy tone from his posts, and what seems to me to be a lot of opinions that aren't backed up by anything.
Nogrod - Could almost be put into the same category as Celuien et. al., but there are one or two things he's said that give me pause. I'll go back and find them here in a bit.
Rune - After attributing a post of Folwren's to him yesterday, I went back and looked, and Rune doesn't appear to be as squeaky clean as I thought he was previously. There's just a hint of a villainous tone in his posts, I think. I don't really have much to back up this one.

Pointy-Eared Freaks
Sally - Her rep vote yesterday reeks, and today she's been using flawed points to try and paint me as a baddie to save her own skin.
Phantom - I've actually been entertaining the theory that Phantom is the OoUA, Elf-sided, especially since Lottie was lynched first. But in either case (baddie-aligned orc or elf), I agree with a lot of Nerwen's posts about him, and will add the fact that he seems unnaturally defensive whenever he's addressed.

[Nogrod]

phantom: Just a question. What if your initial premise is wrong? I'm somehow getting more and more worried it might be... I mean you have a decent quess there but the world might work differently.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Got a place beside a power-outlet...

Okay. It's D2 and after Lottielf's death we have a good reason to believe Sally is not an elf. I do agree with Nerwen that it is possible she is - like it is possible anyone of us is - but this is not the reason to lynch her because the odds are against her being an elf. And unlike with many others with whom we only have these ideas like "he could be a submarine-elf" or "she might have acted like that as an elf", with Sally we have the fact that an elf went in concord with her that openly in the beginning of the Day. That two elves did that is more improbable than any of our "could be's" or "might have's".

Although I must admit that everytime Sally opens her mouth I feel like suspecting her against the "facts".

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.

1. As has been stated, Lottie's vote doesn't really tell us much about Sally and there's no reason to think they weren't elves together. Plus Sally's first post of the day stinks of elvish soap.

2. Unless you're the Seer (which I doubt), you (obviously) can't know what the Seer's dream was last night. In fact, given that Phantom didn't go through his "lol guys I was just kidding" song-and-dance yesterday before Night fell, I'd argue that the Seer probably didn't dream Phantom - what Seer dreams of someone who is, to them, already confirmed to be lying? The way you are in favor of just giving Phantom a pass today strikes me as suspicious, and makes me think worse of you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. As has been stated, Lottie's vote doesn't really tell us much about Sally and there's no reason to think they weren't elves together. Plus Sally's first post of the day stinks of elvish soap.

Lottie's vote doesn't prove Sally is innocent.That I can agree with. And it is possible they are both elves - like it is more or less possible anyone of you guys are. But two elves boldly voting in similar way in the beginning is much more improbable than Lottie just trying to sail on an easy banter-vote (and how wrong she was!). If they both were elves there would have been a thought of carefulness because of the mate, because of the possible pairing in the eyes of others...

And anyway, what I'm saying was and is that the above makes it more improbable Sally is an elf, not that she couldn't be one. Her posting looks suspcious toDay, I said it already myself on my previous post, but not so much as to overdo the sheer probabilities.

2. Unless you're the Seer (which I doubt), you (obviously) can't know what the Seer's dream was last night. In fact, given that Phantom didn't go through his "lol guys I was just kidding" song-and-dance yesterday before Night fell, I'd argue that the Seer probably didn't dream Phantom - what Seer dreams of someone who is, to them, already confirmed to be lying? The way you are in favor of just giving Phantom a pass today strikes me as suspicious, and makes me think worse of you.

phantom's actions just cry for the seer to dream of him. And looking at the mess he has managed to make - two Days more or less talking only about him - would make the seer more or less irresponsible if s/he didn't dream of him and check him.

If you think you are bored to talk about tp then let him be and leave him to the seer.


EDIT: X'd from Shasta onwards...