Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I'm correct in thinking that Sally & tp are innocents then I could see the SoE's be more than happy to keep up the impression that S & tp are tied to Lottie and should be only be handled in the context of their relation to Lottielf. So we should also check Lottie's other contacts...

Except she doesn't really have any. I just read through Day One. She posts plenty, but all she does is defend her vote for phantom, and defend phantom himself. Over and over.

Someone needs to work from the other direction– what people said about her, and to her. But I'm just too tired now to do it myself.

[satansaloser2005]

I need to stop randomly falling asleep.

Anyway, here's how this works. I explain/sum up the vote of a person, then put the current tally, then move onto the next vote. Simple, yes? All right. Now read.



I voted for Phantom in what was admittedly a mostly random move, but one that, on general principle, I was comfortable with. Besides, as far as I knew, I wouldn’t be around for the rest of the Day.

Sally-->Phantom


Lottie posts this shortly after my vote, which to me is worrisome.

Originally Posted by Loslote

This makes sense, and looks rather innocent of you, but I'm going be around, so Phantom, no vote for you.

...yet.

I find it interesting that it really does seem to be a foregone conclusion for her. This, at least for me, was the first sign that she might be evil. Just a tone thing, really.

Not long afterward, she votes.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)

Rune comes in a while later and says that he has “nothing to base his decisions on” but that he’s giving his power to Lommie. He also mentions that he would love to be a rep himself.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie

Greenie says she voted Nerwen because she is “independent-minded and clever” and says that putting a good Nerwen in charge is a good choice, while putting an evil Nerwen in charge can show us more about her character; either way (re: Nerwen’s alignment) Greenie is sure that voting Nerwen is a good idea. What concerns me here is that this is exactly the reasoning that I gave for Phantom. Greenie has been accusatory of me for my vote, yet hers was for the same reasons (though granted with more “evidence” behind it).

Also, if Wilwa was making so much sense, why didn’t she vote for her? I bring this up only because Wilwa is quite the suspect for me, and if Wilwa is a wolf I could see Greenie!wolf not wanting to have ties between them, and thus finding another candidate for representative. Just an idea to keep in mind for the future, really.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen

Nog votes for someone quiet, hoping to bring people out of the shadows and get a better mix of people in power. Izzy was innocent, which I think speaks well enough of Nog, but it also doesn’t clear him. Unfortunately, I don’t get much information or feeling out of this vote.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy

Mira’s vote is interesting for sure. She votes Phantom on what looks like banter. I’m not happy. Of course I know she didn’t have time to read everything, but if she read that far she could have at least said something I’d think. Meh, I don’t know. I’m not going to lynch her for this alone because I haven’t seen enough from her yet to know if this is evilness or just a rushed ordo.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom

Boro then votes for Vanilwa, which he justifies with liking her earlier proposal. Being the first Day, I wouldn’t have seen anything against it anyway, as you obviously vote for a rep you trust or agree with, and at this point there’s not much to agree on, so it’s a simple vote.

Also, yes, I know he’s dead, but I included him anyway. Nyah.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom
Boro-->Wilwa

Lommie votes for Greenie for much the same reason Boro votes for Muffin. She also mentions that she hopes Foley can be a rep.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie

Steve makes his choice between Legate and Greenie in the latter’s favor, saying that, no surprise, she’s reasonable and not evil. (Also, as a point of interest, I originally read his post as “I don’t think she’s that evil”, not “I don’t think that she’s evil”. Why can life never be that simple?)

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)

Dun (Dun Dun) seems to be one of the Boro vs. Phantom crowd (which wasn’t really a crowd, per se, but still). He was unhappy with Phantom’s rep status and thought Boro could....balance him out, I guess? There’s also the teeniest bit of push with that post, but I think I’m seeing things.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro

Shasta voted Izzy. Because he could.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)

Legate, having seen that Izzy is now a rep, decides Nerwen is his next best choice.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)

Cel’s vote is interesting, reasoned more along the lines of Nog’s but with the added mention that she doesn’t seem to have a problem with Phantom being a rep, unlike a few people expressed. In fact, she finds “nothing odd about tp’s campaign to lead”, but says it won’t really help determine his role. She’s not interested in watching Boro and Phantom fight, and isn’t too keen on discussing Phantom any more than she has to, though she would love a shiny gift. She also mentions that she likes “orcs with minds of their own”, and then votes for Foley.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley

After Phantom jokes earlier of Cel being innocent by admitting her “guilt”, he votes her, saying that he thinks she’s innocent and wants to see more of her.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel

Nerwen plops in rudely (snerk) and votes for Lommie, commenting later on the Phantom stuff.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel
Nerwen-->Lommie (2)

In an x-post, Wilwa says that Lommie is reasonable and trusted to make a good choice. In her edit she headdesks at condracting her power limitation plan but says she’s glad someone besides Phantom has more power.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel
Nerwen-->Lommie (2)
Wilwa-->Lommie (3)

Foley’s vote is confusing, but not guilt-riddled. I completely believe that she misread names and counts, but I find it interesting that she voted for Cel. Granted, it’s because I suspect Cel and I’m keeping my eye on possible ties, but also because Foley said “I like Dun” and then voted someone that she said she didn’t know much about (proven by her “I know little about most of the people who have only one vote”). Nothing huge, of course, but an interesting tidbit. I’m curious as to why she didn’t give Dun a bit more power rather than gambling on Cel (a curiosity that is not quelled by Cel’s less than squeaky clean behavior so far).

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel
Nerwen-->Lommie (2)
Wilwa-->Lommie (3)
Foley-->Cel (2)

Izzy pops in last and adds Wilwa to the rep list, and that’s the end of Day One’s rep voting. On this final tally I’ve italicized the innocents and underlined known baddies, as is Norm.

Sally-->Phantom
Lottie-->Phantom (2)
Rune-->Lommie
Greenie-->Nerwen
Nog-->Izzy
Mira-->Phantom (3)
Boro-->Wilwa
Lommie-->Greenie
Steve-->Greenie (2)
Dun-->Boro
Shasta-->Izzy (2)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Cel-->Foley
Phantom-->Cel
Nerwen-->Lommie (2)
Wilwa-->Lommie (3)
Foley-->Cel (2)
Izzy-->Wilwa (2)

Didn’t vote for a representative: Glirdan, Kath

[Thinlómien]

Just letting you know I might not be back after this post.

Kath - Wilwa has seemed rather fishy to me since Day1, but sometimes she has seemed just innocently fishy (ie kind of eyebrow-raising the way some innocent people sometimes do). It was due to rereading and more thinking that I changed my mind, not because Greenie questioned my weird definition (she does it to me all the time ).

As for toDay's lynch: I'd prefer to see Sally, Cel or Wilwa gone. I don't have many solid reasons to back this up: mostly they all just seem "off" to me (Cel the most), and Wilwa's vote was fishy. Sally's role would tell us a great deal of phantom, I think.

Going to hang around now for fifteen minutes (shall post if something interesting occurs) and then I'll be gone. I might be back in 3-4 hours but I might as well head to bed at that hour...


edit: xed with Sally and only noticed it after a few minutes of staring at the thread

[Thinlómien]

PS. Sally you forgot Mira from your tallies although you mentioned her.

Going now. Vote well, reps!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

PS. Sally you forgot Mira from your tallies although you mentioned her.

Going now. Vote well, reps!

Oh. Bloody. Bother. Thanks for pointing that out. How'd I miss that?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Sally

Greenie says she voted Nerwen because she is “independent-minded and clever” and says that putting a good Nerwen in charge is a good choice, while putting an evil Nerwen in charge can show us more about her character; either way (re: Nerwen’s alignment) Greenie is sure that voting Nerwen is a good idea. What concerns me here is that this is exactly the reasoning that I gave for Phantom. Greenie has been accusatory of me for my vote, yet hers was for the same reasons (though granted with more “evidence” behind it).

I think the "evidence" is what makes the difference for me. I was more inclined to find Nerwen innocent than not, and only after that did I come to think that even if she's evil putting her in charge might not be that bad an idea. What made me most uneasy about your vote was that it came before the one you voted for had even made an appearance, and therefore you could have no idea about his alignment in this game. Actually, though, stuff you have said after your yesterDay's rep vote concerns me much much more than that vote.

Originally Posted by Sally

Also, if Wilwa was making so much sense, why didn’t she vote for her?

I had only seen one (though innocentish and sense-making) post by Wilwa before I voted, and didn't want to vote for someone I had seen so little of. In fact, I'm not sure if voting her for rep even crossed my mind! I had more or less made my decision by the time Wilwa's first post appeared. Also, as you can plainly see from my vote post, Wilwa's second sense-making post I mentioned was one my vote post crossed with, so seeing that post couldn't have changed my vote even if I had wanted it to.

[A Little Green]

This will, in all probability, be the last from me toDay. Reps, choose well please. I'd prefer it if you lynched Sally, and wouldn't object to lynching Cel or Mira. Also, I'd prefer it if you left Shasta, Lommy, Wilwa and phantom alone.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate and Nog! Yay, people! I might not leave after all. Or I might.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Generally: the options for my vote as they are now would be like Celuien or Rune, to a lesser extent Wilwa, Zil or Sally (but the latter mostly under certain circumstances which do not seem likely to arise).

Thoughts, options, comments? Now is the time to make them also if somebody is around... I would also like to know whom would people vote - asking especially my voters (but I think it would be the best if we could hear from everybody). It's not that I am going to be guided against my will, but I might in some case of several equal options consider others' ideas (though to be honest, I do not expect that to happen and I would prefer to make my own decision anyway; aside from that, two of you are Reps too so you can use your votes as you see fit).

Well. Of Celuien and Rune, I'd certainly prefer Cel as I think I have a read on Rune and I think he's innocent. Of Wilwa, Zil and Sally, then - I find Wilwa very innocent and wouldn't have you vote her, I'm not convinced either way about Zil, and as I said I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Sally lynched.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think it not unlikely one of these two is Lottie's fellow. My guess is that it might be Sally, and that Lottie, and perhaps Sally as well, took phantom's post at #10 as a pledge of loyalty from the Unknown Orc. Then perhaps Lottie took Sally's post at #12 as a signal that it was OK to vote phantom. (Note that in each case it could have been a misinterpretation– that doesn't matter.)

That is all speculation, of course– I could be completely out in all this. The point I am making is that Lottie and Sally's voting patterns are not the massive obstacle to a Sallyelf theory that they've been taken as.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I must say that Nerwen is right here that indeed the double-vote from both sally and Lottie is not so improbable to have been from two SoE.

I still think that for Lottie to have made her vote so quickly in the footsteps of her mate would have been unnecessarily risky. She had to have known those votes would be questioned.
I'd agree with those who said that if Lottie did indeed follow SallyElf's lead by voting tp, it was a sudden decision, not something they'd planned. Like I said, they'd have to have considered that those votes would be scrutinized.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Wilwa posts a lot without saying much; general tone of breathless gaiety is reminiscent of her wolf-style; only starts suspecting Lottie when the latter is clearly in trouble. So yeah, she might be a wolf– but surely only if Sally isn't, because otherwise voting them both would be an insane risk.

I thought Wilwa looked all right going up to YesterDay's vote. I was thinking of voting for her at one point. It was her split votes, coupled with toDay's apparent nerviness that made me suspect her. And I agree that it's highly unlikely she and Sally are both evil.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Unless both Sally and Lottie are wolves, then wolf-phantom would've been wise to change his mind about Sally a bit earlier on and voted her and saved Lottie. This makes him seem more innocent (until/unless sally is proved a wolf, which wouldn't be that big a surprise). Also, he seems too impassionate in the end of the voting on Day1 to have any serious interest on the income, which he would've had had he been a wolf with (just) Lottie.

It seems insanely risky for three Elves to have so blatantly joined themselves together so early on Day 1. That's is why I'm leaning more toward tp being the OoUA than an Elf, (if he is indeed evil). I don't think he would have invited Lottie's vote the way he did if they'd been mates.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for toDay's lynch: I'd prefer to see Sally, Cel or Wilwa gone. I don't have many solid reasons to back this up: mostly they all just seem "off" to me (Cel the most), and Wilwa's vote was fishy. Sally's role would tell us a great deal of phantom, I think.

I think I'd prefer Wilwa over Sally at this point, but either could tell us quite a bit with their alignment known. The most suspect thing about Cel seems to be her vote yesterDay, and I don't think I'd want to lynch her, especially as she hasn't been her toDay at all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Have been around and reading for a while and I have been trying to make my thoughts on whom I could basically vote. Let me now post a short list of people, and who of them I could vote for toDay:

Celuien - I started to look at her closely after I considered the votes, and now I am not sure about her posting, I think I would like to look at it again. She would be probably one option for me toDay.
Foley - inclined to believe her innocent and aside from that, she's not around - I am not voting her.
Greenie - she does not seem suspicious to me by her behavior, the only thing which could do her bad would be her voting, but that only in case sally is innocent, and even that makes quite many "what if"s. She is not getting my vote either.
Kath - good to see her around, there is nothing in her posts which would seem outright suspicious, I am getting perhaps some general disconcert from her, but that's her always-enigmatic nature for me. Let's see what can be made of her after some day she actually votes, or even becomes a Rep
Lommy - also does not get my vote, for several reasons; her vote was probably the most innocent and she generally behaves innocently, I do not suspect her.
Mira - I have many questionmarks over her, but she is not around at all, so unless she shows up, I am not even considering her.
Nerwen - like I said a few times, generally I find her more on the innocent side; she won't be getting my vote today.
Nog - I am generally in the dark about him, I get no bad feeling from him, he is sort of basic Nog, but so basic (as in: "basic English") that I am not also not getting particularly strong inclinations that would make me think "yes, he surely must be innocent!" Could be largely caused by his lessened participation (there are no fights with Roa etc., where his general temper and behavior shows a lot more ) Likely not voting him.
Phantom - considering all the input I have from him/about him/other people about him etc., I think he is more on the innocent side by a tiny bit. Probably not voting him.
Rune - is sort of enigmatic and I am still not so very fond of him. He was not a Rep, so there was no chance to really read his votes. Like with Cel, I think I am going to take a better look at all of his posts, and see what I think after that. *later edit when re-checking the post before posting: Hm, actually, now I sort of pity that he is not a Rep, if there is a person whom I would like to see voting, it is him. Wonder if I should keep him for that and vote him Rep in the following Day, then... although who knows what the situation will be then...
Sally - I spoke about why I am inclined to think her innocent. If I had to choose between her and somebody I trust more, I could vote her, but I don't think it will come to that, especially with my amount of votes and with the fact that I am probably going to vote earlier than most of others due to the European time.
Shasta - no reading on him, like I said. I could possibly go through his posts too if I have time, although it would be starting rather from scratch (but I would like to do it sometime anyway). In any case, since nothing did jump on me on first sight, he's more like in the same cathegory as Kath for now.
Steve - generally seems very reasonable and all, I am most certainly not going to vote him today.
Wilwa - I have several questionmarks over her too, although when I read some peoples' suspicions against her, I am getting the sort of feeling of that this might be the case of "how to misjudge an innocent".
Zil - partially similar to Shasta now, has been under my radar for the previous Day mostly. Better to also take a look at him if I can.

Generally: the options for my vote as they are now would be like Celuien or Rune, to a lesser extent Wilwa, Zil or Sally (but the latter mostly under certain circumstances which do not seem likely to arise).

Thoughts, options, comments? Now is the time to make them also if somebody is around... I would also like to know whom would people vote - asking especially my voters (but I think it would be the best if we could hear from everybody). It's not that I am going to be guided against my will, but I might in some case of several equal options consider others' ideas (though to be honest, I do not expect that to happen and I would prefer to make my own decision anyway; aside from that, two of you are Reps too so you can use your votes as you see fit).

Since I spent actually over two hours here now, I will probably do something else for a while and then come back, reread something, possibly have something to read also from you others if anybody posts...

EDIT: ha, great, the silence is broken - x-ed with Greenie and Nog

[satansaloser2005]

To Nog, re: Wilwa.

You're not alone by any means, I believe. I think Wilwa has been fishy as well, and unlike some, I don't have the wishy-washy "but it's innocent fishy" response to her.


To Legate.

For what it's worth, I'd greatly prefer Wilwa or Cel toDay, Wilwa especially. Not only do I suspect Wilwa pretty hard, I think her death could tell us quite a lot about others in the village.

EDIT: x'd with Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog - (there are no fights with Roa etc., where his general temper and behavior shows a lot more )

My general temper or my overtired temper at 3am to 6am?

Generally: the options for my vote as they are now would be like Celuien or Rune, to a lesser extent Wilwa, Zil or Sally (but the latter mostly under certain circumstances which do not seem likely to arise).

Okay. I need to look back at Celuien as so many people talk about her being suspicious - I kind of share a certain uneasiness with her due more to style-issues, but nothing more as yet.

Rune is more composed and he's not getting mad at anyone. So should I count it as suspicious? Agreeableness sure is one of the general trademarks of the elves.

Inzil has been quite careful - like I think he normally is. So I don't see any special red lights going on in there. But I think I need to take a closer look at him as well.

Sally I would leave to the seer as I said before. Someone actually noted that it might take a few Days before the seer comes out - that's just the better, for that would mean more information.

At the moment I think Wilwa looks the most suspicious (especially the voting-stuff from yesterDay), but I'll check at some others as well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Except she doesn't really have any. I just read through Day One. She posts plenty, but all she does is defend her vote for phantom, and defend phantom himself. Over and over.

Someone needs to work from the other direction– what people said about her, and to her. But I'm just too tired now to do it myself.

You're right about that. I actually read through D1 as well trying to look at the interactions - and sadly even the other POV didn't bring in anything that I could say would look really interesting. I made some notes though and will read them through yet to see them more closely.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm unsure of what to make of Nog's insistence that the Seer should concentrate on the Sally-phantom-matter.

Well, so far (from the mid of D1 about) I have been guided by an interpretation of the general situation that points it being wiser to check them and not lynch them right away.


But reading yesterDay - and especially the ending of it made me actually quite unhappy with Wilwa. Look at these things...

First there is the minor fact that she left the voting like 25 minutes before the deadline. Convenient 25 minutes to wash her hands and leave the decision to others? You may be short on time and sometimes even half an hour of sleep is important. But still I find it more like an intentional decision to step out of the fray.

But why?

She did say eventually that she would prefer to lynch Lottie, but she also knew tp would not lynch Sally - and she had kind of closed the port for voting Boro already earlier saying she didn’t think of him as suspicious - and sure Boro had voted her as a rep so that route was shut.

So if she is an elf it would make that careful decision of one vote each and early exit quite understandable. Otherwise her actions (why get out at the last minutes & why deal even the votes if you preferred to lynch the other) make less sense.

Also, unlike some other here seem to think, I do also think Wilwa's first post toDay looked suspicious. Her explanations made sense, but the urge to defend herself looked to me quite overdone. The villains always feel threatened, more than they are, and these kind of over-reactions oftentimes follow.

I'm off to check back the Lottie-connections from D1.


x'd with Greenie