Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Ehm I am here, sorry for missing most of today, stuff came up.

In response to Kath's post about me: It is not that I totally discard my earlier suspicions, but early in the game they are mostly based on not being able to read people and thus less substantial. Greenie I still don't know what to think of and Glirdan. . . well he Died.

I was actually quite confident that I would vote Celuien today unless somebody came up with a very good case against another person, now I am a bit at a loss.

The way Steve and Zil posts makes it hard for me to get a read on them, but is it enough for me to vote for one of them? (I will give it some more thought)

[the phantom]

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

For the lynch I would like to see the following debated-
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen
Legate

I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, whatever Inzil. If you consider lynching me then you're either an Elf or not serious about winning.

For the lynch I would like to see the following debated-
Green
Inzil
Shasta
Nerwen
Legate

I would love to see all the Reps rank them in the order that they'd prefer, and I definitely want the candidates to emerge from this list. Given there are five suspects there has to be two that are wrong, meaning the Elves would have at least a couple of clear candidates to push.

There he goes again.. If someone considers lynching you they just have to be evil. Come on. As for your five - why them? (Or should I say us?) If I had to put those in an order, it would look something like this:

Nerwen - possibly my top suspect at the moment, insofar as I can claim to have one. I would like to see her lynched.
Inzil - like I said, I'm slightly uneasy about him though with no arguments to base it on, wouldn't mind seeing him lynched.
Legate - would be somewhere in my "no idea, maybe leaning innocent" -category, quite honestly I haven't paid that much attention to him.
Shasta - I'm still inclined to find him innocent, definitely don't want to lynch him toDay.
Green - obviously. Lynching me would be stupid.

I'm still considering Rune as well, my vote will in all probability go for either him or Nerwen. (A curious detail: the three I'm most uneasy about are my fellow reps.)


EDIT: x-ed with Foley and Lommy

[Eönwë]

In fact, you jumping on that is making me start to find you suspicious. In fact, maybe my phantom-Zil-Boro triangle wasn't as far-fetched as I'd first thought. Of course, Boro was innocent, but then again, he was the most vocal and outspoken of the three of you, so maybe he was just an innocent that happened to join in?

Looking at the phantom:

I've thought him innocent for most of the game, but look at these coincidences:

• Doesn't lynch vote on Day 1. He misses it even though he was the one keeping the tallies. And in addition, he is always the one who said that not voting at all was a bad idea. Admittedly, in the context it was about rep-voting, but still, phantom (the powerhungry) not voting seems a bit wrong. Seems like he's avoiding the risk of lynching an innocent (Boro), or any of the two who voted for him, because he wants support toMorrow. And also, if he is really a wolf, then voting Lottie would be a very bad move (obviously). In fact, whatever he says now, he defended the two of them for all of Day 1. Also, lynching an already-dead fellow is grounds for suspicion too, so he would've wanted to avoid that.
• Lack of a rep vote toDay. He was the one doing all the counting and stuff, yet he didn't vote. Voting Kath would've been bad, considering that she had already said she couldn't be a rep, and voting anyone with no votes would seem a throwaway vote. Giving a rep another vote would just create imbalance, which would surely cause a bit of controversy, since everyone seems to be sticking to the "two-votes-per-rep" plan these days.

Of course, other than a few other minor things, this is generally where my suspicion for phantom ends, because he hasn't done anything else to make him look guilty, and in fact many of his posts feel very innocent. Still we all know how cunning he is (or at least professes to be), so I'm sure he could be fooling us. And purposefully/mistakenly missing votes seems very uncharacteristic for phantom (though I admit for both evil or innocent phantom). But not voting (once in a while so that it's not as obvious) would probably be more advantageous for an elf. So let's assume he's evil for the purposes of this post and see how the 'scenario/model' plays out.



Moving onto Inzil and the links between the two of them next.

edit: x-ed since Lommy's list.

edit 2: formatting

[Eönwë]

Well, this was actually meant to be part of the same post as the last, but then I decided to split them, so just assume they're linked as one.

I've been trying to find stuff (good or bad) about Inzil, but the problem is that I can't, because there's not much I can say. He's far too slippery, which is not good at all. There's nothing really that can be taken as a strong sign of innocence or evilness, and the only real way to judge him is to look at his links with other people.

That's why I've chosen the phantom. Now, let's assume that he's evil (see last post) and in league with the phantom. Consider these under this light:

• He is the first to show dissent against everyone voting phantom (#6). So obviously, this would be a good way to start an argument without actually suspecting someone.
• Later on he says "I don't know whether tp is a SoE, but I flat-out disagree with him on this" (#225)And that generally sums up his approach to the phantom. Arguing with him but not suspecting him. A perfect way to distance yourselves and not get either of you in trouble (i.e., danger of lynching). And these sorts of arguments generally look innocent.
• Votes Boro for rep on Day 1, cementing the above comment.
• "Why is the phantom still alive?" The easiest way to suspect someone without giving evidence or making anyone seem too evil.

He also only once gives out clear suspicions of everyone. On Day 2.

The link also continues (Though weaker) throughout the rest of the game, but I'm too tired to look in more detail at the rest right now.

Besides, I get the feeling that really, one of them is probably evil, while the other might not necessarily be. If this is the case, I suspect that Inziladun slowly tried to associate himself with phantom, so that he could take him down with him if he looked guilty.



Or maybe I'm just over-thinking.


edit: fell asleep at my keyboard. x-ed since my last post.

[the phantom]

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

[Folwren]

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

[Folwren]

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Foley

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

Originally Posted by Foley

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

The Seer doesn't have to live through the night if he's already dreamed 3 innocents.

As far as belief, you've just got to hope that the true Seer is more believable than the fake one. I mean, that's always the case in any village. It's just that I'm suggesting perhaps instead of drawing things out we go for a huge massive lynch and either win or lose.

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

[Folwren]

I will actually not go over Day 1 or the first half of Day 2, because I can sumarize it pretty well. Mostly what she did on Day 1 was bicker with Phantom and point accusingly at Sally, saying she looked much more wolfish than Lottie. She spoke very little about Lottie and she spent both her votes on Sally.

Day 2, she really ripped into Sally. Some of her posts were what I saw when I was trying to decide what to do that night. At the time, I trusted Greenie. As I said, it was only until today that I started distrusting her.

Originally Posted by Sally in post 453

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

She was talking to Nerwen. This was day 2. She seems to be saying that although it is unlikely that Sally and Lottie were elves together, Nerwen's explenation made sense, so she agreed. I actually don't know where or when Nerwen talked about both Sally and Lottie being elves together....I just figured that myself. I thought it'd be really sneaky and if Sally had turned out to be an elf, I would've probably lobbied to kill Phantom, but that's another matter...

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable. I, for one, certainly can't complain as I was the one who actually killed her.

Throughout day 2, she seems to think that Wilwa is innocent. Good, good... at least she's consistant in disliking sally and only sally.

She likes Nerwen Day1 and Day2. But Day3, she changes her tune. I don't like her reasoning against Nerwen at all. I've looked at the same posts, and I think Nerwen looks reasonably innocent. In fact, I think Nerwen is quite trustable...but that's just my own opinion.

Originally Posted by Greenie towards end of day3

Well. Of Celuien and Rune, I'd certainly prefer Cel as I think I have a read on Rune and I think he's innocent. Of Wilwa, Zil and Sally, then - I find Wilwa very innocent and wouldn't have you vote her, I'm not convinced either way about Zil, and as I said I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Sally lynched.

I think if Greenie is guilty, Rune may be, too.

Originally Posted by Greenie, earlier toDay

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

The logic that she is referring to is in Nerwen's post;

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

Because of Greenie's reaction, Nerwen posted that she thought Greenie over-reacted, and Greenie responded, deflecting...but I wonder...?

Here's what she said in response to Nerwen's, 'Why did you react like that?'

Originally Posted by Greenie

I know! The difference is that you seemed to consider it as a possibility, whereas I don't - even if I was a SoE it would be so ridiculously paranoid that I don't think it would be an option.

In post 572, she lists who she thinks is innocent and guilty....nothing out of it now, except she puts in her innocent list some people I have in mine...

She proceeds to vote Inzil in as Rep, although she uncertain about him...

And time is running so short that I'll post this even though it's not finished and maybe finish it in another post.