Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well well- looks like the experiment worked, but not the right way. Bleh. At least we can be certain that my list of innocents is at least partly wrong now. I feared at least one was wrong, but I had to try it. There were only two choices of people I could back and Mira given her lack of participation I judged to be the lesser of the two. Obviously wrong on that, blast it. Otherwise it would've worked perfectly.

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?

So what tipped them off to Mira? She did so little else that I think it must have been her post at #627– specifically, her list of three innocents. Thing is, I don't think you (phantom) were the only other per person who made a list of three, so that might tell us something. (Need to check.)

Originally Posted by the phantom

So that means we must lynch a couple of these folks-
Foley
Kath
Legate
Lommy
Rune
Steve
Inzil

I need to go back and do a reread of many things. I'll be around later.

If Zil, Rune or Lommy is an Elf, he or she quite gratuitously bussed a comrade. (Can't rule that out, though.) Add in Foley, who played a large role in getting A Little Green Elf lynched.

The other thing is– why did Greenie go so heavily after me? It wasn't as if there was general support for lynching me– and I had voting-power, whereas there were seven disenfranchised folk who would have made easier victims.

Thoughts–

1. Was it the case that the only lynchable-looking people among the er... general public were her fellows?

2. Was she counting on the support of a fellow-rep?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So what tipped them off to Mira?

I expect it's because Rune and I were wrong. We were the only other logical Seer choices. I had this fear all of yesterday that I was choosing the wrong Seer candidate (Mira's plea not to be lynched from lack of participation made me nervous), but in the end I attempted to poach the dreams of the candidate who had actually been playing (Rune).

If it weren't for his rather explicit statement about Lommy and I being innocent, I would have without any doubt guessed at Mira being the Seer and at the end of the day I would have hinted that I had dreamt Mira, Shasta, and Nerwen to be innocent, and then the Elves probably would have killed me.

But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is.

And just to point out, if Mira's grouping of me-Shasta-Nerwen with her in the innocent column wasn't meant to be Seer dream info, then I'd say we're screwed. A Seer knows they're the Seer and knows that people are going to go back and read their posts if they die, and so if she chose in her final post to say that Phantom, Shasta, and Nerwen were in the same innocence category as herself, then we HAVE to operate based upon that. If that's wrong then it is not our fault. We can't worry about that.

So, everyone mark it down- DO NOT vote as a Rep anyone other than Shasta-Nerwen-Phantom unless we come up with some sort of five-lynch plan. Agreed?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

But instead I picked Rune as my Seer and so in my ruse I claimed that he and Lommy were innocent, along with Kath (I added Kath because I thought three dreams would look more powerful). What that tells me is that it is nearly a guarantee that Rune, Lommy, or Kath is an Elf, and likely that Rune or Lommy is.

Only if the Elves didn't buy your Seer-act for the specific reason that you named at least one as an innocent. I'm not at all saying I disagree with you here, Phantom - in fact I would be surprised if Lommy in particular wasn't an Elf at this point - but saying "nearly a guarantee" is pushing things a bit far, I think.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Only if the Elves didn't buy your Seer-act for the specific reason that you named at least one as an innocent. I'm not at all saying I disagree with you here, Phantom - in fact I would be surprised if Lommy in particular wasn't an Elf at this point - but saying "nearly a guarantee" is pushing things a bit far, I think.

True. However, they didn't buy Foley as the Seer either. Look at this list:

Originally Posted by Folwren

Probably Innocent
Nerwen
Inzil
Lommy

Less certain but leaning towards innocent
Shasta
Legate
Phantom
Kath

Also less certain, but leaning towards guilty this time
Rune
Mira

I have a guilty feeling about:
Greenie
Steve

Now PLEASE don't freak out about Greenie's name being there. I KNOW I voted for her, but it was only after I voted for her and then started reading more posts (remember, I'm way behind due to Day2) and she started posting more posts that I got a bad, bad, bad feeling about her. I feel something is wrong. I don't have time to go back and figure it out now, but I wanted to put out my list in case any of you reps really cared.

And Foley's later comment about me must have looked very Seerish. So why wasn't she killed? Is it because the Elves reasoned that she couldn't have dreamed Greenie plus three innocents? But she makes it pretty clear that her suspicion of Greenie was based on the latter's posting only– and, after all, she voted for her.

[Nerwen]

So, where do the different lines of reasoning lead us?

1. Theory: Mira was killed as the only Seer-candidate who hadn't listed an Elf as innocent (or wasn't a Elf). Other possible "Seers" would be would be Rune (Lommy, Kath, phantom), Folwren (Nerwen, Inzil, Lommy), phantom (copied Rune's list, substituting Rune's name for his).
Implicates: Rune, Kath, Lommy (twice), Zil. And Folwren for the sake of argument, though after yesterDay there's much against the idea that she is an Elf. A good deal against Zil being one, too.

2. Theory: Greenie went after Nerwen (rep) because there was no innocent non-rep she could have lynched easily.
Implicates: Steve. Perhaps Legate? (I'd have to re-read; reckon she could have got Steve lynched, anyway/)


3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Here for a short moment, just briefly...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree?

Looks like that to me, and I think that's the basic line I am going to hold. I need to review all; in any case, I don't think it's some 100% free pass, but basically I would try to go with that and refrain from voting the three of you.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

couldn't our Seer have been someone who, I don't know, participated?

Basically exactly the same wording of what I wanted to say as I saw it...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given her rep vote for Phantom early on, I'm inclined to think Phantom was her Night 1 dream.

i
Well, I think it doesn't necessary mean that - it could just have been a good way to cast a random vote, hoping to get lost in the crowd of phantom-voters and get some pass for the Day from the SoE (for being a bit suspicious, and too random for being the Seer). It would expose her to some threat of being lynched, but then, there were like two other people who did the same, so she could have hoped for merging with the crowd, so to say, and not feeling the threat so strongly.

I find it more likely that she'd dream of phantom later - certainly after the Day 1 events, I think in any case, every Seer would do that. But I didn't really have time to go through all her posts and am working only based on my memory and what others quote here. I will look at her posts later myself. Not that it seems to matter whether she dreamt of tp on Night 1 or whatnot. Basically the three-list above is the thing I am going to use. It is quite lucky that anyway, if it is so, she didn't dream of somebody who died at the same Night - that's actually what I had been afraid of all the time, since the Seer didn't seem to come out with any dreams.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So what tipped them off to Mira? She did so little else that I think it must have been her post at #627– specifically, her list of three innocents. Thing is, I don't think you (phantom) were the only other per person who made a list of three, so that might tell us something. (Need to check.)

There was at least phantom and especially Foley with sorta similar list and possibly some Seer-ish things ("don't lynch Nerwen"). There definitely must be reasons why the SoE chose Mira over everybody else, that's also worth looking at - but will have to do it when I come back.

Okay, whatever, gotta run now. Will be back later toDay, in several hours...

[Nerwen]

Hey, anyone around? I'm lonely.

By the way–

Originally Posted by Great WW Quotes of Our Time

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. Theory: Greenie went after me because she was expecting another rep to vote with her (i.e. one who bussed her instead):
Implicates: Zil, Rune. (More the latter, as his vote could be said to have been forced.)

Not going to disagree, it was a forced vote to some extend.

It was not like I had anything in particular against voting for Greenie, but I wouldn't have done it if it wasn't for you guys and Folwren.

People are starting to talk a lot about Lommy, I for some reason have had a lot of faith in her.

First I thought she made sense and appeared very innocent, after that she made a post where she claimed to know Me, Legate and Nogrod quite well and believed us all to be innocent.

I am quite a ware that a SoE could easily create such a list as they know exactly who is innocent and who isn't, but in this case I chose to believe that it was pure skill that made her pick innocents. (This is also the reason I haven't really paid attention to Legate, also I can never get a read on him)

I will not end this post with a conclusion, I am merely telling you what thoughts I have had about Lommy.