WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

Okay just a few short points from the last posts as I've just read them. Then hopefully something more substantial...

It seems we have a new word in our ww-vocabulary - and there is use for it to be true! The latest mantra I find quite odd is this "those latest votes to Shasta look the most suspicious, don't they?"

We all I think share the amazement looking at the 7-vote tally for Shasta - and that it screams wolf (although let's not totally blind our eyes to the possibility that the wolves just sat back and enjoyed the events...). But by the time myself and Greenie were voting (we x'd our votes) there was little to choose from.

So if we want to look for wolvish hands steering the wagon we're already late looking at those last votes (when I voted Shasta had 5, Lottie & Pitchie 1 each) - the wagon was already out of control.

Just based on "wagonery", I'd say the following are the ones to build it...

Glirdy (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitch (5th vote)

Whatever the alignment of each and everyone of them, here anyway is our wagon.
Lottie started, Inzil made the second (in situation 1-1-1), I'm not saying they are innocents because they were not the actual wagon-builders (well, we can discuss whether giving the second vote is wagoning). Greenie & myself closed it in a situation where it really didn't make a difference anymore.

Originally Posted by Ozban

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

Talking of which:

Originally Posted by Boro of me

insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobblery

Of course we should look at the Shasta voters - we have a dead seer here so of course we have to. It would be the most stupid thing not to. I mean it should go without saying we look closely at such wagons. *enough?*

I have only said we should not forget the others or give them a free pass. I could bet quite a lot at least one wolf markedly did not vote for Shasta. And I might also guess that that person would have made some noise about it (I haven't checked that, but will).

Anyway, back to bussiness now. I raised my eyebrow quite a few times earlier toDay while reading the thread. I'll get back to those issues.


EDIT: bah, Ozban seems to have gone - just as he'd need to read something...

[skip spence]

Okay I'm here now, more or less until DL, though I can't give this my full attention.

Will be reviewing Day 1 first...

[Nogrod]

So?

To me it seems he is acting more or less straightforwardly with Legate and Nerwen. Anyway, it's hard for me to take anything from there as a seer-hint. And if he was leaving hints here, well, ge did make it hard for us to read.

How he deals with Pitchie looks quite monomaniac and out of any proportion to being a straightforward play. It is hard to see that coming out from just Pitchie's posting and Shasta really trying his best to form a suspicion and vote on it - especially as there was a slight possibility some people might vote him because of the attacks of Lottie.


The question then becomes is Pitchie a dreamt wolf or was Shasta trying to accomplish something different?

Someone suggested that he might have tried to pose as the seer to the wolves with a wrong target and thus cover himself from them. But isn't that quite a dangerous tactics? Why single oneself out as a seer - even if a false one in the first place? He might have figured they'd think of him as the cobbler though. But then again, what if he accidentally picked a real wolf? That would be really dangerous - or did he just trust on his psychic abilities not to pick one? Okay, maybe he dreamt of an innocent Pitchie and then used him as his target? Possible...

On the other hand, wouldn't it be just too reckless from him in the first place to come that openly out with a bogus-case if he had a wolf? But like someone (Nerwen?) mentioned, it was his first game as a seer. It is rather unnerving to be one and have a wolf in your hands and feel people suspecting you - and knowing you have to leave early... (heh, when I was a seer the first time I dreamt of wolf-Roa and just couldn't stand quiet but went after her like a raving mad ). Anyway he shouldn't have been so confident of him being alive the next Day when he left that it feels he'd rather have a pressure to leave something than just play the odd one and leave... Or then not.


*my brain hurts.*

[Nogrod]

Shasta's dream?

Looking back at all that Shasta posted on D1 and considering possible hints from the seer, I think we have basically three options: Pitchwolf, Nerwinnocent and Innogate.

Of Legate he says in his first post (with a quote from Legate about him willing to stir discussion):

Originally Posted by Shasta on #10

It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.

He refers to both Legate and Nerwen:

Originally Posted by S on #21

I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate

Of Nerwen he says:

Originally Posted by S on #33

[I'm] most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

Well?

He thinks he's okay (for now!) with Leg; he has suspected him because of his style but if it's just stirring the discussion, then okay, for now.

Then he disagrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Legate - and agrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Nerwen.

Then he says he's most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).


What about Pitchie then? Well, this was it.

Originally Posted by S on #10

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Originally Posted by S on #31

I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise)

Originally Posted by S on #33

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment

Originally Posted by S on #58

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

Originally Posted by S votes Pitch on #60

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Well?

He singles out Pitchie in the first post with quite a sleight of hand - and comes back stressing that he had made the first actual suspicion of a specific person (and even added that it was Pitchie). And he repeats it and then goes to produce that odd piece of quotes from Pitchie which at least I can't find a decent suspicion even if I try my best.

Finally he will not vote for Lottie to help save himself but goes for Pitchie instead...

Uh-oh.

Some conclusions in a separate post shortly...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

That looks a bit odd, really. I don't see how skip could have more against him than Pitch at the moment. If Pitch turns out to be a wolf, Greenie needs some scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

I don't know that I'd go as far as to say Steve was "horribly suspicious" there, but I agree that it doesn't make him look especially good either, despite Ozban's words.

x/d with Nog and Pitch

[Nogrod]

While I was reading through the thread earlier I did also take some notes on the developement of the Shasta-wagon. I'm not promising this has every comment on the issue (and will not take on hour to re-check), but it should be quite exhaustive.

Also I have not included my own comments on it as I was doing this (on paper) just to help myself see how it goes. I - or maybe even better, someone else - might go and check them if interested.

I'll drop bolding to save time. Also S = Shasta & L = Lottie. Note also: unless in parentheses, they are not exact quotes but my shorthand...


Here we go.


Leg #35 notes that S&L act curious, like w-on-w; S accuses Pitch randomly like wolves.

Glirdy #37 "I was thinking the same" (about w-on-w).

Nerwen #38 Thirds the idea.

Green #39 the infamous 4 scenarios, stays neutral.

Ozban #44 L&S "just a random recon".

Leg #46 weary of S&L.

Pitch #48 suspects L, finds S innocentish.

Zil #50 S&L "usual selves", but "interplay companionlike". S's quick suspicion on Pitch stands out.

Lottie votes Shasta (#57)

Shasta votes Pitch (#60)

Boro #62 comments on who have stood out but doesn't mention either S or L (I thought of adding this here as it looks interesting in concerto with what he did later).

skip #64 the infamous "might vote S for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point".

Pitch #66 list-post; puts S&L together "there be a wolf there?"

Glirdy #67 S&L&Pitch, one of the three a wolf?

Green #68 questions S.

Zil #71 L's vote for S speak for them not both being wolves; L&S obvious, too easy?

Green #72 S most suspicious, L quess innocent; not surprised if both wolves.

Green #74 L actually did vote for S? More improbable they both are wolves.

Pitch #75 gives his resons to suspect both S&L.

Leg #78 L more suspicious but lynched on D1 on the previous game.

Legate votes Lottie (#80)

Zil votes Shasta 2 (#81)
"no one else looks potentially as bad".

skip #82 would like to see S rather than L go.

Glirdy votes Shasta 3 (#87)
S&L could both ber wolves but believe S to be one; S on Pitch suspicious.

skip votes Shasta 4 (#94)

Green #95 could vote for S

Pitchie votes Shasta 5 (#96)

Boro #97 not liking the votes, will go random.


And well that's the story of the wagon developing. Rest is history.

Okay. I need a short break now but I'll be back soonish.

Feel free to look at the story meanwhile. I'll have a few comments on it too as I come back.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

I remember reading that yesterday, I believe I quoted it and said 'hear hear!', because it's so true. And he said it before the whole bandwaggon thing happened; he was warning us not to get in to such a situation, he wasn't chastising us for already being in the situation. If it was the latter I could maybe see why you don't like it, but since it's the former I don't see anything wrong with what he said. (it just makes me wonder if he's psychic)

He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

x'ed with 2 Pitch and Eonwe

[skip spence]

Argh! too much to read!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

Still don't get it I'm afraid. It was day 1. As it chanced, unfortunate circumstances (and/or devious calculation) made us lynch our Seer. Had he turned out to be a wolf (which obviously seemed likely to many back then), we'd be cheering and calling it a job well done.

[skip spence]

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

[Pitchwife]

Back and feeling better, but had no time to more than skim through what has gone on in my absence, so just a few words I want to get out:

According to Occam's razor, the 'dreamed-Pitchwolf-theory' looks like the most probable at the moment, so I can't really fault anybody for wanting to test it. I'd of course rather lynch a wolf, so if I can save myself in any way I will, but if it takes death to clear me, so be it (and then you can all join me wondering what the Udûn our Seer, may he rest in peace, thought he was doing), and maybe the Ranger will choose wisely again and compensate for the lynching of yet another innocent.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.

Or they might do the same if I'm innocent, hoping for the moral high ground tomorrow; but I guess one or two of them won't be able to resist the temptation to push what looks like falling. As to me, I know he can't have dreamed me, and I think Nerwen is the most likely dream, especially since she looks fine to me in general.
There's still the cobbler, of course, who is in an interesting position now, not knowing whether I'm a dreamed wolf or not, but will probably rather err on the side of caution and try to save me. That in mind, I don't really trust Legate now, who doesn't seem to ponder the possibility that Shasta dreamed me very seriously at all - I mean, I do of course appreciate the support, but really?

EDIT: x-ed from #166 down