Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If we somehow get a good idea of who xe might be, and there are no better (ie, wolfy) candidates for the Day, I could get behind a lynch. The BW is mainly dangerous for its ability to block the Seer or the Ranger, so it would be risky to leave it to Bombadil and hope xe got it right, or wasn't blocked xemself.

But if we think we know who TBW is, we can let TB hunt him that Night. TB doesn't need to get it right on his own. Xe just needs to be able to use his power. If we can guess who TBW is, then TB can probably, too - or at the very least, xe can see that we think we know who it is and take a hint. The only reason TB wouldn't have the same information on the TBW suspect as we would is if xe'd already tried the suspect, and found xem to be not TBW - in which case, we're better off not lynching xem for suspicion of being TBW anyway. (For suspicion of being a wolf is another question entirely.)

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Zil

Xe has the luxury of playing for xemself, and can thus switch loyalties on a dime from village to wolves. That can make it hard to spot a pattern.

If you want to get really technical, the BW almost acts as the Bear role in this sense. The only two differences? He doesn't KILL and there is another role to take xem down.

I for one do not believe that TBW should be on our priority list. If it so happens that we take him out in a lynch, cool. But our efforts should be on finding the Wolves, and for this game definitely the Cobblers as there are two of them. Some of us just learned how dangerous the Cobbler can be at the end.

Personally, I say let TB worry about TBW. After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

[The Elf-warrior]

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind?

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by EW

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

In other words, you can't really tell... not enough to take the risk of leaving a suspicious person to his or her own devices.

Originally Posted by Shastanis

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

Precisely, my pearl. I'm sure we all remember how, in days of yore when a leave-the-cobbler-alone school of thought prevailed, it was common for wolves to pretend to be the cobbler.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Fea. Mind you, at least now I can keep that wight wine I barrowed from her.