Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Loslote]

No way I'm the first person to post.

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.

Butbutbut...one thing that jumped out at me from yesterDay was this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Hey, I have two friends who are more than willing to rip up people on my say so! Who do you think the Alpha was in the narrations?

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

No way I'm the first person to post.

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.

Butbutbut...one thing that jumped out at me from yesterDay was this:

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

I wouldn't want to pay too much attention to what an exposed wolf says. True, he was telling the truth about Sally *blows Shasta a kiss* but then she wasn't one of his comrades. There's no way of telling whether that's a bluff, a double-bluff, or what. Probably not an accidental slip, anyway.

–So apparently the wolves think they know who Bombadil is. Or is that just a flight of fancy for narration purposes, plus bluffing on Shasta's part?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I had marked Inziladun down as innocent so the kill doesn't surprise me. Obviously, everyone should go analyse Shasta's posts to see his interaction with other villagers.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Loslote

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I guess our remaining villains are Green, Formendacil and Kath; though only a fool would gladly give Nerwen the benefit of the doubt.

[wilwarin538]

Wow, our first dead ordo (on Night 5, how odd).

Originally Posted by Lottie

which seems to indicate that the other two wolves are people who are more likely to let Shasta take the lead. Of course, he may be throwing us a bit of a red herring, but it's something to take into consideration, and would tend to implicate people like Formy, Eomer, and Pitchie as opposed to people like Agan and maybe Kath...chances are it doesn't mean much, though.

Actually the narration from Night 5 referred to all of the wolves as Alpha, and I don't think Shasta would give a hint like that anyway. He was asking them for permission to do something yesterDay (with his little code), if he was in charge he would have just done it instead of finding out if it was ok.

I have a really crazy day today with school and work, and my computer keeps acting up so I may not be able to come on at school if it happens again (and going on here on my iPod is annoying, so anything I do say will be very brief). This will likely be a very bad day for me to participate.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Butbut...yay for SallyWight being deadful.

Seconded. Kudos to Tom!

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

Dear Eomer, what she means is that you and Pitch are totally not Alpha-worthy wolves.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Actually the narration from Night 5 referred to all of the wolves as Alpha, and I don't think Shasta would give a hint like that anyway. He was asking them for permission to do something yesterDay (with his little code), if he was in charge he would have just done it instead of finding out if it was ok.

Where did it refer to them as Alpha? The only thing I noticed about it was the lack of mention of Alpha... It's probably not a very important thing to pursue though, if there's an Alpha it's more likely some twist of Boro's than something the wolf pack has decided based on who form it.
I wonder why Shasta did not do as he threatened, though... The most likely scenario is that he just wanted to confuse us - at least I can't see any possible hints in anyone's interaction with him.

I'll go through Shasta's posts when I get home (I'm sitting on the tram, and although the public transport wireless works just fine, this is not the easiest place to type).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Who do we suspect people? Let's start fighting with each other! Way too nice today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It could mean something, but Pitch and I both have plenty more posts than Kath, so not sure how you draw this conclusion.

I wasn't thinking of post count when I said that. Closer to this:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Dear Eomer, what she means is that you and Pitch are totally not Alpha-worthy wolves.

But even that's not quite it. More that you, Pitchie, and Formy are, from what I've seen, more laid-back and less confrontational. I don't know Kath that well, so I said maybe on her. Agan, we all know, is a bit confrontational.

Also, it's Thursday again, so...I'll be voting way early again. Maybe for Eomer or Pitchie (and not because of the Alpha theory, but because I actually do find them suspicious).

[Aganzir]

Shasta went quite consistently after Inzil and me since day 1 (his initial reason being BW confusion), and also didn't trust Pitch. He considered voting for either Glirdan or me and went for Glirdan in the end (mwahaha).

On day 2, he suggests the BW is someone who looked seerish, mentioning Nog as a potential candidate (which would "point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves," me being the most likely wolf in the bunch - later he says an Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of the theory which also casts doubt on the other three being wolves). He and Inzil argued about Eomer after Inzil suggested Eomer looked more like the seer who had dreamed me a wolf than Nog did because Nog was so explicit that I was the cobbler.
Anyway he pushed Nog's being the BW very strongly (although he also mentioned the no trace people Eomer, sally, Kath & Form as possible kills). I'm inclined to think he was trying to take a distance from sally in case she died before him so we wouldn't find a link back to Shasta... and he says it'd be useful to speculate on who the BW is because the fact that the wolves attacked her is a big piece of information. And because sally was pretty much a no trace kill, it would've been convenient for the wolves to make us focus on that.

Shasta finds EW's vote for Eomer fabricated-looking and safe, and calls wilwa and me wolfish for saying there's no use trying to find the BW before we know more. He argues with wilwa and to a lesser degree also me and Pitch, and expresses contempt for Form's motivation. He's neutral on Eomer but "inclined to see if he steps it up tomorrow (last chance, Eomer!)"

You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting.

There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

Out of Eomer, me, EW, wilwa and Form I looked the worst and wilwa the best, but he ended up voting for Volo (crossing with his reveal). He then called for three more votes for Eomer, but it didn't basically mean anything because Volo was the only remaining voter around.

I wonder how much we can make of Shasta's day 3 posts because EW voted for him quite early (and his post must have alarmed the wolves, Shasta included, so he might have been preparing for his death already then).
He banters with Nerwen in a friendly tone, says he seems to remember Eomer is more involved as a wolf but he might still vote for him on principle, and disagrees with Greenie: "I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish." They were talking about Kath, and that's not what Greenie said, she just pointed out it would be convenient for a wolf. He criticised Inzil for calling EW an easy vote and voting for Kath himself (who hadn't shown up yet that day). He wanted to vote for Eomer & me (plus a couple of dead innocents), didn't want to for wilwa, Lottie & Greenie, and could vote for Kath & Form (and sally) on principle but probably wouldn't unless things changed. He was neutral on Pitch and Nerwen. I'm not going to start any "he probably didn't put his fellows in the same category" stuff because it's impossible to know what a wolf would do in a certain situation... but it's worth pointing out that he probably knew he'd die if EW was revealed as the seer, and his intent was therefore to ensure that his fellows survive. However there are a million ways for that, and if someone wants to analyse it, go ahead, but I won't.

And I'm going to ignore everything Shasta said yesterday because it was meant just to confuse us, and I think the only thing we might be able to find there is the cobbler (and even that's not a given).

**

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan

Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch
(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie

Based on this, I'd put people (myself excluded, obviously) in this order. From the most likely fellow to the least:
Eomer - an enigma that could go either way, but to me he looks more wolfish than innocent. The way Shasta keeps bringing him up but never acts on it doesn't really speak in his favour (but then, he did the same with me).
Kath - very little interaction but Shasta's subtle defense of her by semi-questioning Greenie doesn't look too good.
Nerwen - not much game-related interaction except occasional agreeing with each other which would be convenient for them as a wolf-pair. Plus the quote I provided above.
Form - nothing speaks for his being Shasta's fellow, but nothing speaks against it, either.
Pitch - an argument but not much else.
Greenie - because he twisted what she said of Kath.
wilwa - her argument with Shasta looks quite innocent.
Lottie - because I'm willing to consider her a known innocent, anyway.

Note that this is only based on what Shasta said of people, not what they said of him. I might take a look at it later unless someone else would like to (which, to be honest, I wouldn't much mind ).

[Aganzir]

Lottie - Eomer
wilwa - Pitch
Nerwen - Eomer 2
Form - Agan
Greenie - Eomer 3

Left: Agan, Eomer, Kath, Pitch

I actually almost feel like trying Form instead of Eomer.