Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

FORM
He never talked of Shasta before yesterday, and then he dedicated several paragraphs to discussing what it means that Shasta mentioned him and me together (he suggests Shasta was shielding me). It looks funny because it didn't even occur me to suspect Form because of it ("Oh the dying wolf is just throwing names there."), and thus he looks quite jumpy (wanting to point it out before anyone else did). He voted for wilwa on day 1 because apparently entertaining trumps useful (this I find a possible cobbler hint).

KATH
Summarised Shasta's day 2 posts (along with everyone else's) and said she didn't like how Shasta jumped on a comment of Inzil's but didn't like how they tried to out the seer, either. Later she said Shasta was leaning guilty (as well as Nog, Inzil, EW & Volo): although his words had been taken out of context a lot, he focused on the seer too much and could be the cobbler. On day 3 she made a new summary but didn't have time for Shasta (and Form & sally). She ended up giving the decisive vote that lynched EW whose playing style she didn't like, and although she xed with a lot of votes, the situation was ultimately the same because in the last tally she saw, everyone was tied at 1. Based on how she talked of Shasta, she could be a wolf who had decided to put some pressure on a fellow, but she could as well be innocent. However, her vote for EW isn't too good-looking.

GREENIE
Unless I missed something, she doesn't even mention Shasta until day 3 (granted, she didn't post much, but still). Then, she hadn't ignored the possibility of him being a wolf (which she always does when he is one), and he looks ok. This would be a very convenient way to treat a fellow, but when you look at how she talked of us others, it wasn't much different. The same day, she made an analysis of EW and concluded he seemed consistent in his inconsistency and she was uneasy with how much he flip-flopped. In hindsight it's pretty obvious he was the seer - and it must have been obvious to the wolves. If Greenie is a wolf, having the guts to quote all EW's posts and conclude he looks slightly fishy is bravery that borders on idiocy (and I wouldn't put it past her - but she could have voted for him simply with "He's so quiet!"). She thought Shasta looked genuine, and voted for EW, tying him with me, Eomer and Zil (although she xed, so for all she knew, she was only tying him with me).

WILWA
Argues with Shasta on day 2 regarding his assumptions & suggestion of trying to figure out who the wolves attacked. It looks genuine, and I find it hard to believe they would've staged it. She considered voting for him but said she probably wouldn't because it was mostly a case of her not agreeing with him. I'm willing to bet she isn't a wolf. Of course she might still be the cobbler, but even that seems highly unlikely.

NERWEN
Comments a lot on the things Shasta says, but says precious little about him. Shasta's vote for Volo is mentioned as part of the group "nastily opportunistic".

PITCH
Shasta looked the best to him on day 1, after one single post. On day 2 he comments on Shasta's theory but doesn't really state on opinion on the people involved. It's not so much an argument but rather he just questions Shasta. Later, he wonders about Shasta (and Nerwen) who seemed to suggest Nog was the BW impersonating the seer. He says EW's vote isn't as bad as Shasta (and Lottie) made it look, but trying to lynch a supposed seer would be quite dangerous - however, EW might not have thought it through. He says he wouldn't mind getting rid of a submarine (EW) in lack of better options, but follows Shasta (who, he's inclined to think, is innocent) in saying he could vote for Zil which he does.

EOMER
Doesn't even mention Shasta before EW's death (but then, he was pretty quiet until then). Since then, Eomer is convinced Shasta is a wolf and doesn't consider other possibilities.

I'm not going to waste my time going through Lottie's posts because I'm quite sure she's innocent.

Nerwen, Eomer & Pitch all had a conveniently nonchalant attitude towards Shasta before EW's death.

The EW voters Greenie & Kath: Greenie's overall treatment of Shasta looks worse than Kath's, Kath's vote worse than Greenie's.

Form's worry about being mentioned by Shasta makes it look like he has a reason to think it should point at him... but apart from that, he's been so quiet it's much more difficult to place him than the others.

wilwa is the only person on the list who I think could not be a wolf.

It's quite hard to say who looks the most suspicious. I'd dare a guess both Greenie & Kath aren't wolves, at least... Just because lynching the seer who has dreamed of a wolf isn't the best-looking thing to do.

[Aganzir]

Also, we can afford to lynch an innocent today, but if we don't get a wolf or the cobbler tomorrow, we lose.

[Pitchwife]

D1
Mostly controversy with Agan and me about whether or not to lynch a suspected BW or leave them to Tom (What bothered me about her position here was that she was neglecting the danger that Tom might be mislynched or Nightkilled before he had a chance to do his job. Meanwhile, this point is luckily moot, but at the time I found it Wightish or wolvish. On the other hand, maybe she thought Tom couldn't be Nightkilled (our known innocent Zil did, too) and just didn't want the village to steel Tom's thunder.) Suspects me, mostly for our disagreement (mutual). Votes Agan to save wilwa and Glirdan whom she thought innocent, but doesn't really suspect Agan either. (?)

D2
Mostly argues with Shasta against his NogSeer-cum-BW theory (now known to have been a frame attempt, so this speaks for her), thinks Eomer a likelier Seer-cum-BW than Nog but wants to leave him to Tom. Thinks Nog and Shasta likely both innocent, wilwa and Zil feel genuine, could vote for a quiet player (most likely TEW) or me. Votes TEW because he's not saying much and what he's saying looks really off. (Not much to fault here so early in the game. Her vote a bit easy maybe, but going after quiet players was more or less common consensus that Day, with only one vote for a really loud player in the whole tally.)

D3
Conclusions from the Night-kill: Eomer more likely to be the BW, but only if Agan is evil; or Tom could already have hunted Eomer, so he might be a wolf instead, and in this case Agan probably not his packmate. (Eomer was rather commonly suspected on Day 2, and her thought process is logical here.)
Disagrees with TEW about Shasta trying to frame Nog (we now know that's what he was doing, but at the time several people (me included) agreed that it wasn't very likely). Not feeling good about me, me and TEW could be packmates (probably because I defended him). Still considering Eomer. Votes TEW for more or less the same reasons as the Night before. (Again, it of an easy vote, and with hindsight, TEWs blunt accusation of Shasta was obviously Seerish, but looking at my own voting on that Day I'm not one to talk here.)

D4
Takes apart Shasta's defense that TEW used his votes to hint at future dreams, is one of the first to vote him (looking pretty good). A list: Agan and Nerwen deniably good; wilwa, Greenie and Kath the same but not quite so good; Zil and Formy deniably evil, Eomer and me same but worse, sallyWight and Shastawolf undeniably evil. (No reasons given here. Part of the list is self-explaining from what she's said about people earlier - especially Agan's and Eomer's placements, which to some extent depend on each other, and mine, which I guess is based on her constant bad feelings plus my link to Shasta from D3 - , others not so much - the middle sections, and how Nerwen and Zil ended up where they did, when both had argued against Shasta's defense along with her and Nerwen had voted Agan, Lottie's other most trusted player, for two the last two Days.)

Conclusion so far: A lot of good reasoning mixed with some opinions that seem based more on hunches, not much reexamining of earlier conclusions (the whole Agan/Eomer matter), which you could also call consistency, I suppose. No obvious wolvish twists that I can put my finger on. One thing that stands out is that she's been quite constantly suspecting me but never votes me, but I rather think that's her being fair to me in my absence.
Taking in account TEW's possible dream hint, I'm more inclined to think her OK than not.

Update toDay:
Frankly, I'm not that happy with the way she uses Shasta's words on the gallows to further confirm her suspicion of Eomer and me. Lottie, this is not just because it's me, but it looks like you're only seeing what you want to see - like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it, if you're truly innocent.


I intend to go on with Greenie, but with DL in less than two hours, I don't know if I'll have enough time toDay.

EDIT: x-ed with #501 down.

[A Little Green]

All right, looks like it's about my bed-time. I was intending to do a proper list and have a look at a few people but some studying came on the way.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Very interesting. Green posits that because Shasta had suspected Aganzir and myself without ever voting for us that it points to the guilt of one of us. I read her point thinking: "No-one will go for that, surely? Shasta was a blabbermouth and suspected a number of people; he can vote for only one per day."

Fair point, and it's possible that he quite simply didn't have enough Days to vote for everyone he suspected. But with the two of you, he seemed to suspect you - especially Agan - more than the ones he actually ended up voting. Of course voting late as he usually did he would have to pick of the choices available at the time, but the thing is - suspecting a fellow wolf is a clever move from a wolf. Very clever. Voting a fellow wolf, especially one who has been under suspicion from others too, is really risky. The point I'm trying to make is that while it's entirely possible no wolvish connection exists between Shasta and one or both of you, it would also be very fitting if it did.


EDIT: x-ed with two Agans

[A Little Green]

It's going to be Agan or Eomer for me toDay I think, as my logic has carried me only that far. My intuition would point me to voting someone no one even considers, maybe Nerwen or Wilwa, but since my logic says nothing of Nerwen and innocent of Wilwa I will certainly not vote either. ToMorrow, if I'm still alive, I should have a little more time to look at people. Hopefully.

So I'm going to go with

++ Eomer

because a) of the two I'm inclined to think one is a wolf, he is the one that looks like a more likely lynch, b) though Shasta's connection to Agan looks slightly worse (more consistently suspicious so the never-vote looks even weirder - though also, his suspicion of her is bold to an extent of being foolish as wolf-on-wolf), Agan looks otherwise more innocent, and c) there has been something bizarre about Eomer all through the game - something just doesn't sit right with him - but this last is no proper argument, just a feeling.

This is going to be the last from me toDay. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch