WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I must say, as somebody mentioned here before, I would have expected somewhat more posts around here. As in, I know that it's hard to say (Day 1, we all know the usual arguments and problems with it...) still, this looks entirely "uninterested". Except for the few comments by/about Hubbard's daughter, which I originally thought were just joke as well (but some people, including herself, seem to take it seriously? Or am I mistaken?), and Lommy's short evaluation of the Heir, there isn't very much to go with.

Speaking of the Heir, I think that does not have much of a practical use in the beginning, but perhaps if we managed to lynch our Seer or something as lovely as that, it might prove rather useful. It can of course serve the Wolves as well, but for me, the main point of it is a failsafe against random Day 1 Seer-lynch (which is what haunts me the most after my last game).

What else? Where are all the vocal players when we need them? It might be a small village on Day 1, but come on. If first 12 hours of the Day 1 are spent in banter, why not, but I think slowly we should try to move on...

Shall be around...

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Except for the few comments by/about Hubbard's daughter, which I originally thought were just joke as well (but some people, including herself, seem to take it seriously? Or am I mistaken?)...

Well, Legate, it was honestly intended to be lighthearted. Nerwen seems to be taking it more seriously than originally planned.

Originally Posted by Zil

x/d with rondi, ED, ??

Zil, you may call me what you wish. "Hubbard" seems to be coming out of the woodwork...

[Loslote]

Earlier toDay, I noted that, if elronhubbard did turn out to be a wolf, Zil would be a likely candidate for her packmate, based on this:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I haven't played with you before, so I won't be voting for you toDay. Typical newbie pass. Hyper-nerviness is a common wolf-cub trait, however.

being an almost wolfish response to a packmate coming under suspicion - start off pointing out why we should not lynch her, then saying 'but she could be a wolf' so that he could point to that if she was lynched anyway - but after re-reading the thread, I've come to the conclusion that they would be unlikely packmates, based on purely meta-lic reasoning. Elra calls him Zil, but Zil introduces himself as Inzil. If they were packmates, she'd have spent all last Night thinking of him as Inzil. But, because I call him Zil, that's what non-packmate!Elra would have first associated with ThePersonKnownAsInziladun - and what she would call her.

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.

[elronds_daughter]

Thank you, Lottie. Your support is greatly appreciated.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Earlier toDay, I noted that, if elronhubbard did turn out to be a wolf, Zil would be a likely candidate for her packmate, based on this:



being an almost wolfish response to a packmate coming under suspicion - start off pointing out why we should not lynch her, then saying 'but she could be a wolf' so that he could point to that if she was lynched anyway - but after re-reading the thread, I've come to the conclusion that they would be unlikely packmates, based on purely meta-lic reasoning. Elra calls him Zil, but Zil introduces himself as Inzil. If they were packmates, she'd have spent all last Night thinking of him as Inzil. But, because I call him Zil, that's what non-packmate!Elra would have first associated with ThePersonKnownAsInziladun - and what she would call her.

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.

Decent reasoning, my dear, and the fact that you discount our being packmates based on meta-reasoning, instead of using that to build a case on either of us, might be a point in favour of your innocence. My point was that she does seem somewhat defensive, but I don't want a brand new player lynched on Day 1 just for that. As usual, however, newbie pass expires Day 2.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

Indeed. With 13 players, seven of whom are either wolves or Gifteds (including the Heir), it's actually likely we'll hit a non-ordo toDay with the lynch. So the Heir could come into play very quickly.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

Well, Legate, it was honestly intended to be lighthearted. Nerwen seems to be taking it more seriously than originally planned.

Hm, actually now looking at it, it seems to me that it was Lommy who sort of first took it more seriously, before, it seems to me like just a random exchange between Nerwen and you. Then you continued in considering Lommy seriously and so on... anyway, my point was that I think the whole affair seems to be sort of "overrated", as it seemingly rose from just a joke, and not any serious accusation.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have no idea if that makes any sense at all. To me, it sort of looks like my brain spewed onto the computer...but hey, we've got nothing else going on.

Better than silence, definitely.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

Well, I think given the numbers, it won't probably take very long until somebody of the possible "target groups" dies. I don't think the Heir is going to cause "havoc", unless he/she remains "unused" until some really late Day (but then, again, that really can't happen, as at least some Gifted/Wolf would be dead by then for sure). Otherwise, it will be just either a helpful thing, or it will be like having four Wolves in the first place.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

I was thinking the same and actually, we don't have to be really worried about lynching gifteds toDay, which is a blessing because on Day1 it's especially difficult to tell a jumpy gifted from a wolf.

Now this makes me actually think whether the hunter should come out and we should lynch him/her and s/he could have a shot at a wolf and we could have another hunter and thus get the advantage of having the heir on our side as the new hunter.

Let's see...
- if we lynch an ordo toDay, we lose an ordo
- if we lynch a wolf toDay, we also lose an ordo (since we lose the heir to the evil side)
- if we lynch a gifted toDay, we also lose an ordo (since we lose the heir in exchange for the gifted)

So in any case, we lose an ordo toDay. So is it all the same who we lynch?

No, there are minor differences:
- if we lynch an ordo, the heir's power is still unused and in case the wolves kill a gifted next Night, we only lose an ordo instead of a gifted.
- if we lynch a wolf, we can analyse their interactions with people and try to figure out who are the two other original wolves.
- if we lynch a gifted, we can make sure the heir advantage doesn't go to the wolves.

Which is the wisest course? I'm not sure, but it seems like we can't avoid disadvantages toDay, which kind of sucks. But I guess it's the same for the other side...? Maybe we should ignore the whole heir.

Unless it really makes sense to lynch the hunter. Shasta, what are the actual details of the hunter's role? Does s/he take also innocents with her/him if s/he dies during the Day?

'Cos if s/he doesn't, it's worth a shot lynching her/him toDay...


edit: xed with Inzil and Legate

[Thinlómien]

Oh and as for my "suspicions" of Elron, I said she makes the newbie wolf mistake of being jumpy but I omitted on purpose the fact that it hardly equals here being a wolf as many newbie ordos are jumpy as well. Given that Nerwen was already putting pressure on her, I figured that if I put a bit more, we might see some interesting reactions that would reveal stuff about her. Unfortunately, Elron's reactions don't tell me much. Yes, she got more nervous so she could be a wolf, but on the other hand, she didn't turn hysteric which a newbie wolf could do in such a situation. So I'm afraid I didn't learn much and to repeat, I don't find Elron particularily suspicious while not particularily innocent either.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As per usual in games I host, the Hunter is logical (kills their target if lynched, only kills their target if their target is evil if nightkilled) and the Ranger can self-protect once.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I would like to actually start getting some info as to whom I might vote, but there's been rather quiet today this far. Okay, so let me see:

Wilwa - no info
Lottie - one remark about possible relations of Inzil and LRH, seeming sort of innocent-ish to me, but nothing much in the end, really
Boro - no info
Sally - no info
Nerwen - a bit of chatter here and there, but nothing of substance. Possibly a bit of pressing on the LRH thing, but it seems more like she considered it fun all the time...
Elronhubbard - actually funny enough, being a newbie but posting basically the most. In any case, gets a newbie pass today, but even otherwise does not seem any suspicious straightaway.
Eomer - nothing much, a few remarks. If I was supposed to say from whom I am getting bad vibes, it is him, but it is simply the feeling and nothing more - so that means nothing.
Greenie - basically nothing
Inzil - attempt to engage in dialogue, but not really standing out in one way or another
Nogrod - no info
Lommy - tries to be active, in contrary to many others, and at least gives some opinions and such. I'd grant her pass just for that.
Legate - that's me
Nessa - nothing

So is there any idea whom I want to lynch today? No. No idea at all. What's wrong, folks?

Okay, it's of course likely that at least we could expect some Americans starting to come later, but for us Europeans, it might well be at the time when we are asleep already. I am really not going to wake up around 5 AM to vote, sorry...

If it goes like this, it might be actually the first time in my life when I will vote absolutely randomly out of like ten people. Great! (On the other hand, maybe with the Heir, it's the best of all games to do it...)

I'm actually wondering if some people, like Lommy said was her case, do actually even know that the game is running...

[Nogrod]

So it's finally on...

I kind of like Lommy's bold idea of removing the heir from the equation from the very beginning. But as the hunter will take anyone with her/him if lynched we (s/he) should be very careful with that option. Looked at from the "safety POV" it should be the ranger then (knowingly lynching the seer on D1 just sounds such bad ).

The pros & cons as I see them.

For:

If we lynch fex. the ranger toDay the heir will take the place of the ranger and there is no fear of the heir going to the dark side anymore and we have the ranger still - so we kind of start from scratch without the fear of an extra-unknown wolf popping up from somewhere - the mid-game turned wolves are the hardest to find out.

We can not lynch a wolf toDay (in a sense of lessening their numbers) so we're basically facing a one person reduction from our side anyway, whoever we lynch.

Against:

The ranger probably doesn't like the idea... and we'd need enough votes to rally around the idea - and we Europeans will not be around the last hours before the DL (6AM in Finland).

Maybe we should just see how it goes and not make a mountain out of a molehill?


Any thoughts?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

As for what Lommy said, interesting suggestion of course, though given what Shasta said about the Hunter taking with him/her whoever dies, not sure if it's very advantageous, or even more dangerous than safe...

Myself, I'd at least prefer keeping the Heir as a "backup", like I said before, in case we managed to lynch a Gifted toDay, or even if we e.g. lynched an ordo and the WWs killed a Gifted at Night (which is not so unlikely scenario to happen, I think). Of course, like Lommy said, if we really lynched e.g. a Hunter now, we'd be sure that the Wolves don't use the Heir to their advantage. But then again, imagine if we lynch a Hunter and he kills the Seer...

EDIT: x-ed with Nogger. Yay!!!

[Nogrod]

We are now on 9-1-3 (goodies - the heir - baddies).

If we lynch a wolf toDay (and the wolves make a kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

If we lynch a gifted (and the wolves kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

So it's the same result!

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Or, if the wolves kill a gifted overNight, it's 8-3, which is, again, the same. So...free for all, anybody?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We are now on 9-1-3 (goodies - the heir - baddies).

If we lynch a wolf toDay (and the wolves make a kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

If we lynch a gifted (and the wolves kill during the Night), we'll wake up to D2 with 8-3.

So it's the same result!

If we lynch an ordinary innocent (+ the wolves kill an ordo), it's 7-1-3 - and the heir is still up for grabs... but the longer it takes for the heir to take sides, the harder the heir is to spot if s/he ends up with the bad side.

Well, I personally would put a bit more stress on what happens to the Gifteds in each scenario, resp. what options are open for them there. As I think in the game of this size the roles of the Gifteds can prove decisive. But I guess it comes down to whether we are going to be optimistic or pesimistic, anyway. But like I said, it'll be interesting to hear some other peoples' thoughts on this...

EDIT: x-ed with the two

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back, and I hope to be a bit more productive for the rest of the Day though I have an essay to write for tomorrow and should really be concentrating on that..

Anyway, I'm totally confused by the whole of the Heir discussion - though I'm glad the topic was brought up. Not only because it got people talking, but because a Day when lynching a wolf is not, in fact, a desirable option, merits some discussion on strategy.

The speculation is important, but I'm concerned about the practice. What do we do? Hunter comes out, we vote him/her? Ranger comes out, same thing? (Is that fair? And is that even possible? What if our Hunter/Ranger doesn't show up until late, or doesn't show up at all?) Everybody votes randomly and we see what happens? (Total insanity!) We act as normally, ergo try to lynch a wolf and in all probability don't hit anyway? (Technically as insane as the previous option - with the exception that this would give us more to analyse for toMorrow - since if we actually do lynch a wolf we get another.. And besides, if you really believe somebody is a wolf (not sure if anyone does though) you wouldn't want to lynch them!) And to add - most of us Europeans will be going to bed in a little while, so whatever decision we make should preferably be made rather soon.

Basically, we don't want to kill a wolf until we have killed a Gifted, right? Agh, this drives me nuts.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I think Lottie's being a tad unfair, saying I should be lynched right off the bat... Just because I'm new and different, that doesn't mean I'm evil.

Not that I'm asking for hugs and cake (or death! erm, I mean, what?)...I will happily settle for a wary tolerance.

Cake? Yes please. As long as it's not Sally cake. That would make a sad (but of course tasty) Sally. :/

Also, she's totally kidding (at least so far), so don't fret, my precious.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

She said everyone should be (except herself and Shasta). Your failure to notice this speaks of a guilty conscience, young Elra. Clearly, you ought to be lynched.
÷÷Elra÷÷

Actually, this isn't a terribly bad catch (except for again, kidding). Let's remember, kids, to NOT GIVE THE NEWBIES A BLOODY PASS. Well, for now, yes, of course, because otherwise we'll never actually get to play with her, but not forever.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only thing that remains, really, is to think of a wolf-name for her.

Any objections to Wolfronhubbard?

I like Old Wolfer Hubbard myself. ^_^

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The Heir is going to cause a bit of havoc in this game. If we're exceptionally lucky the first special player to die will be the Hunter in taking down a wolf.

If only we could be so lucky....but I think, given our recent luck as villagers, that isn't very likely to happen.

Also, I'm not voting for Dun today, because....well, you just have to keep around the guy with the Harry Potter references (if only because I'm not around to make them myself, boohoo).


Erm, I have to vote now, don't I? Rats. I'll re-read and be back with a decision (and hopefully a list). I'm sorry I can't be of more use; I'll try my best, but I can't promise much alas.