WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

wilwarin538 · 12-12-2010, 08:27 PM

Hmm, the way he was so sure about Inzil yesterDay, I'm not surprised he ended up being the Seer. I remember he mentioned a few times that he was sure the Seer would reveal, but I guess he decided not too. But this post of his was probably his way of getting all his information across, without actually revealing:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eomer

Wilwa - shouldn't be overlooked
Boro - quite suspicious, as usual, but not convinced
Elronhubbard - shouldn't be overlooked mk 2
Greenie - I think she's probably innocent
Inzil - obviously a wolf and must die in a gruesome fashion
Lommy - it would go against tradition to argue against her lynching
Legate - I am suspicious - reminds me of Inzi, a lot
Nessa - pure and innocent

So the only one's he's totally definite about is Nessa (innocent) and Inzil (guilty). Then there are some that he seems to feel as being guilty/innocent, but doesn't say it with the same certainty: Boro, Greenie, Lommy and Legate. Then for me and Elronhubbard he seems to just be unsure of.

So I would say that Nessa was definitely a dream of his. He wouldn't have said she was innocent so adamently if he hadn't dreamt her, knowing that if he died we'd look so closely at his supicions.

But that only covers 2 of his 3 dreams. Considering that those are the only two he's definite about, I would venture that his third dream must have been someone who was dead by yesterDay. (maybe someone should look back and see what he says about those who are dead?) I would think if his third dream was alive he would have given a definite indication like he had with Inzil and Nessa. (well at least that's what I would have done in his position, he very well could have been thinking something else)

I have an exam in the morning (probably, if the schools aren't closed from all the snow!), but after that my last one isn't for a week, so I have some spare time, so my participation this Day should be way better (more in the second half of the Day though).

wilwarin538 · 12-13-2010, 06:35 AM

Where is everybody?

Hopefully there will be stuff here by the time I get back from my exam. It's the one day so far I've been able to participate, so there better be things for me to comment on!

Legate of Amon Lanc · 12-13-2010, 07:05 AM

Well, I am here.

I must say I have been also thinking about Eomer's likely Seerishness earlier yesterDay, I think he was "sticking out" a lot (aside from one brief moment when I started to become unsure about it, since he did not seem to reveal, while I'd have expected him to - but even though he didn't, he still he gave us clues, I believe, in his lists).

So as for what we might get from his posts about the players' roles, I think it is obvious from his voting that he dreamed about Zil, and aside from this, I concur with what wilwa said about Nessa. The formulation "pure and innocent" is somewhat straightforward amidst all the "I think" and "maybe"s. It is quite possible that the remaining dream might have been about somebody who is already dead. Will take a look at his earlier posts quickly just to see if there isn't something that will give any confirmation...

In any case, now I think the best place to start from is to look at Inzil, if any info about a possible relationship with other players can be seen. Also, looking at the votes would be in order too. Gonna do it straightaway...

Legate of Amon Lanc · 12-13-2010, 07:26 AM

So, votes yesterDay in order:

Greenie=>Boro
Boro=>Lommy
Eomer=>Inzil
Lommy=>Boro (2)
Legate=>Inzil (2)
Wilwa=>Inzil (3)
Nessa=>Inzil (4)

Did not vote: Elronhubbard, Inzil

Generally, I think the early votes do not tell us much, as they might've gone either way (unless the Wolves expected already then that Inzil is threatened and wanted to stop it by creating an opposite bandwaggon straightaway). Probably Lommy's vote and LRH's no-vote look to me probably the most suspicious right at this moment. With Lommy's vote, one could see it as a sort of attempt to create a "save Inzil" bandwaggon, of course in case that Boro is not a Wolf as well: in such a case, it would not make any sense. (But then again, I doubt Boro and Lommy would be WWs together... though huh, if it was, then it'd be really disgusting!) Wilwa's vote looks quite good, as it was in a rather decisive moment, similarly with Nessa (which was more like an almost-last nail into the coffin).

As for Elronhubbard's non-vote... What Boro said about Nessa's exchange with Zil, I could actually say the same more like about LRH, because she seemed to sort of flip-flop there. Inzil was pretty surely going for lynch at that point, but if the two of them voted for Boro, as I believe the last one voted is lynched, then Inzil could actually still have lived. I could very well imagine the sort of "final flip-flopping" being a sort of inner dialogue of two Wolves (and especially if I imagine LRH as a newbie-Wolf) "so should I try to save you or not?" At that point, voting Inzil would not probably have given a Wolf-on-Wolf vote much more credibility anyway, so can it be that Elro-wolfwould just decide not to vote at all?

Of course, that's one possibility. If Boro, the second person with most votes, was a Wolf as well, then it would definitely not make sense for the two to even think about the chance of saving Inzil by instead sacrificing him (therefore also, I am led to believe that if either Boro or LRH are Wolves, then the other isn't).

elronds_daughter · 12-13-2010, 07:43 AM

I see how you'd find me worrisome, Legate, but the reason for my non-vote was simply the confusion that Inzil raised about DL. I had hoped Shasta would be able to clear up the confusion before DL...but 'twas not to be.

I am perhaps too forgiving - I just wanted to give Zil a chance to redeem himself, but since he gave up so easily...I considered just voting for him anyway, without letting him give a proper defense, but I was exhausted that night and fell asleep before I could (sorry...11:30 for Shasta is half-past midnight for me...I think I may be getting too old for late nights).

Anyway.

Going by what Eomer said, I think Nessa's all right. Apart from the unfortunate Nerwen vote, she hasn't done anything really suspect (unless I've overlooked something).

I'm not quite sure about anyone else yet.

elronds_daughter · 12-13-2010, 08:03 AM

Still not entirely sure about anyone other than Nessa, but the fact that Legate is worried about my behavior makes me think he could be innocent.

A Little Green · 12-13-2010, 12:27 PM

Summarising my opinions on people. I'm going to leave Nessa out - if she's a wolf, I'm going to deep-fry both her and Eomer.

Wilwa:
Day 1: mostly about tactics, random vote for Lottie
Day 2: agrees with the Hunter-lynch plan, votes Lottie
Day 3: calculating the reveal plan (whether or not it's smart for the Seer/Ranger to reveal. Votes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly):

++Inzil

Conclusion: most likely innocent - I have a hard time seeing a wolf making that vote. Boro and Inzil were in a draw at that point. Would a Wolwilwa have sacrificed a fellow that way?

Thinlómien · 12-13-2010, 12:40 PM

'K... not really surprised to find out that Eomer was the seer. Too bad to see him go. It actually even crossed my mind at some point yesterDay, the way he talked about Zil. But I was far from sure, so I didn't want to jump on the Zil-wagon based on a vague seer suspect since I didn't have a clear opinion on Zil himself and I also thought Eomer would reveal if he really was the seer so there'd be enough votes for Zil if he really was a dreamed wolf. But hey, we got one wolf, which is great. Too bad it just rings a bit false to my own ear to be happy about that since I still feel like we're losing the game with 5 against 2 whose identities could be almost anything.

I'm surprised how people are kind of downplaying Eomer's dreams. People seem to agree that he dreamt Nessa, but I also think he might well have dreamt Legate of Amon Wolf or A Little Ordo. I need to check his posts to make a theory I can believe in, but Wilwa and Legate's easy acceptance that the third seer dream was lost smells fishy to me.

I think somebody should go through Zil's posts and others' posts about him. I won't have time in operations like that, like I said before joining. However, if nobody else does it, I think I'm going to do it and take the time from my sleep or something, since it's pretty vital.

So, up next:
- a list to help me figure out what I think about people
- checking Eomer's posts (I'm glad he writes no novels!)

edit: xed with Greenie and myself

12-13-2010, 06:35 AM	#2
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Where is everybody? Hopefully there will be stuff here by the time I get back from my exam. It's the one day so far I've been able to participate, so there better be things for me to comment on! __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

12-13-2010, 07:05 AM	#3
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	Well, I am here. I must say I have been also thinking about Eomer's likely Seerishness earlier yesterDay, I think he was "sticking out" a lot (aside from one brief moment when I started to become unsure about it, since he did not seem to reveal, while I'd have expected him to - but even though he didn't, he still he gave us clues, I believe, in his lists). So as for what we might get from his posts about the players' roles, I think it is obvious from his voting that he dreamed about Zil, and aside from this, I concur with what wilwa said about Nessa. The formulation "pure and innocent" is somewhat straightforward amidst all the "I think" and "maybe"s. It is quite possible that the remaining dream might have been about somebody who is already dead. Will take a look at his earlier posts quickly just to see if there isn't something that will give any confirmation... In any case, now I think the best place to start from is to look at Inzil, if any info about a possible relationship with other players can be seen. Also, looking at the votes would be in order too. Gonna do it straightaway... __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories

12-13-2010, 07:26 AM	#4
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	So, votes yesterDay in order: Greenie=>Boro Boro=>Lommy Eomer=>Inzil Lommy=>Boro (2) Legate=>Inzil (2) Wilwa=>Inzil (3) Nessa=>Inzil (4) Did not vote: Elronhubbard, Inzil Generally, I think the early votes do not tell us much, as they might've gone either way (unless the Wolves expected already then that Inzil is threatened and wanted to stop it by creating an opposite bandwaggon straightaway). Probably Lommy's vote and LRH's no-vote look to me probably the most suspicious right at this moment. With Lommy's vote, one could see it as a sort of attempt to create a "save Inzil" bandwaggon, of course in case that Boro is not a Wolf as well: in such a case, it would not make any sense. (But then again, I doubt Boro and Lommy would be WWs together... though huh, if it was, then it'd be really disgusting!) Wilwa's vote looks quite good, as it was in a rather decisive moment, similarly with Nessa (which was more like an almost-last nail into the coffin). As for Elronhubbard's non-vote... What Boro said about Nessa's exchange with Zil, I could actually say the same more like about LRH, because she seemed to sort of flip-flop there. Inzil was pretty surely going for lynch at that point, but if the two of them voted for Boro, as I believe the last one voted is lynched, then Inzil could actually still have lived. I could very well imagine the sort of "final flip-flopping" being a sort of inner dialogue of two Wolves (and especially if I imagine LRH as a newbie-Wolf) "so should I try to save you or not?" At that point, voting Inzil would not probably have given a Wolf-on-Wolf vote much more credibility anyway, so can it be that Elro-wolfwould just decide not to vote at all? Of course, that's one possibility. If Boro, the second person with most votes, was a Wolf as well, then it would definitely not make sense for the two to even think about the chance of saving Inzil by instead sacrificing him (therefore also, I am led to believe that if either Boro or LRH are Wolves, then the other isn't). __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories

12-13-2010, 07:43 AM	#5
elronds_daughter Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2004 Location: Between the fortune cookie and the post-its. Posts: 644	I see how you'd find me worrisome, Legate, but the reason for my non-vote was simply the confusion that Inzil raised about DL. I had hoped Shasta would be able to clear up the confusion before DL...but 'twas not to be. I am perhaps too forgiving - I just wanted to give Zil a chance to redeem himself, but since he gave up so easily...I considered just voting for him anyway, without letting him give a proper defense, but I was exhausted that night and fell asleep before I could (sorry...11:30 for Shasta is half-past midnight for me...I think I may be getting too old for late nights). Anyway. Going by what Eomer said, I think Nessa's all right. Apart from the unfortunate Nerwen vote, she hasn't done anything really suspect (unless I've overlooked something). I'm not quite sure about anyone else yet. __________________ I'd like to be the king of all Londinium and wear a shiny hat.

12-13-2010, 08:03 AM	#6
elronds_daughter Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2004 Location: Between the fortune cookie and the post-its. Posts: 644	Still not entirely sure about anyone other than Nessa, but the fact that Legate is worried about my behavior makes me think he could be innocent. __________________ I'd like to be the king of all Londinium and wear a shiny hat.

12-13-2010, 12:40 PM	#8
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	'K... not really surprised to find out that Eomer was the seer. Too bad to see him go. It actually even crossed my mind at some point yesterDay, the way he talked about Zil. But I was far from sure, so I didn't want to jump on the Zil-wagon based on a vague seer suspect since I didn't have a clear opinion on Zil himself and I also thought Eomer would reveal if he really was the seer so there'd be enough votes for Zil if he really was a dreamed wolf. But hey, we got one wolf, which is great. Too bad it just rings a bit false to my own ear to be happy about that since I still feel like we're losing the game with 5 against 2 whose identities could be almost anything. I'm surprised how people are kind of downplaying Eomer's dreams. People seem to agree that he dreamt Nessa, but I also think he might well have dreamt Legate of Amon Wolf or A Little Ordo. I need to check his posts to make a theory I can believe in, but Wilwa and Legate's easy acceptance that the third seer dream was lost smells fishy to me. I think somebody should go through Zil's posts and others' posts about him. I won't have time in operations like that, like I said before joining. However, if nobody else does it, I think I'm going to do it and take the time from my sleep or something, since it's pretty vital. So, up next: - a list to help me figure out what I think about people - checking Eomer's posts (I'm glad he writes no novels!) edit: xed with Greenie and myself __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris