WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[elronds_daughter]

Still not entirely sure about anyone other than Nessa, but the fact that Legate is worried about my behavior makes me think he could be innocent.

[A Little Green]

Summarising my opinions on people. I'm going to leave Nessa out - if she's a wolf, I'm going to deep-fry both her and Eomer.

Wilwa:
Day 1: mostly about tactics, random vote for Lottie
Day 2: agrees with the Hunter-lynch plan, votes Lottie
Day 3: calculating the reveal plan (whether or not it's smart for the Seer/Ranger to reveal. Votes:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly):

++Inzil

Conclusion: most likely innocent - I have a hard time seeing a wolf making that vote. Boro and Inzil were in a draw at that point. Would a Wolwilwa have sacrificed a fellow that way?

[A Little Green]

Elra:
Day 1: half-serious self-defence, votes Nerwen

She seems shady(est) to me at the moment. (Terribly sorry if I'm wrong.)

Day 2: Suspects Legate, then backs off:

I concur, Boro. Lommy and Legate are both looking a bit unfriendly to me at the moment... Legate mostly because of the completely fallible logic in trying to reason out why Sally got dead. Those kinds of reverse-psychology leaps are just plain weird. But, I may be reading too much into it. (Especially since Lommy herself pointed out how little sense Legate was making.)

But it's still entirely possible that I'm wrong on both accounts.

Noted. Like I said, I'm potentially wrong on both accounts... Legate's logic just seemed odd to me. But maybe it wasn't a bad odd and my interpretation is off.

Sees Nog's point about the blind agreement on trusting Hunter-Lottie. Votes Lottie anyway.

Day 3: agrees with Eomer about Inzil being fishy.

Greenie is very quick to vote for Boro. "Hrmmmmm" is all I have to say about that.

I was quick because, like I think I explained yesterDay, I was only there for less than an hour. I had to be quick. As for why I voted for Boro - a part of it, I admit, was that I thought Lommy sounded Seerish. (After rereading her I came to the conclusion that she definitely wasn't one, already before Eomer was killed.)

Point taken.

Still, there appears to be time left for you to argue your innocence. By my count, there's 4 votes for you, 2 for Boro, and one for Lommy. And neither of us have voted yet. (Unless you did and I missed it? In which case, apologies.)

So. Convince me.

I'm not sure Inzil's fellow would say this. She didn't vote, and explained it toDay.

Conclusion: not sure if a new wolf would jump on a fellow before it was evident he was going down – unless so instructed by fellows. In general she's quick to back off (all the "I might be wrong"'s), quick to self-defend. Could be just newness though.

[A Little Green]

Lommy:

Day 1:

The Heir - well nothing much to speculate about.

Had to quote this, I found it so cute. After that, she tests Elra (wants to find out if she'd make a ”newbie wolf mistake”) and speculates about the Heir. She was the one to start actively pushing the village to speak sense. Makes a list:

Wilwa - under the reindeer. Quite honestly no idea but more positive than negative vibes, maybe.
Lottie - active and helpful but maybe even too nice as Nog said.
Boro - I don't remember anything he said except that he suspects me for some vague reasons. No good, Mr88, my bororadar doesn't flash innocent - but not guilty either, given your inactivity this far.
Sally - hasn't been around, or...?
Nerwen - weird and overtly bantery and slightly aggressive. Err???
Elronhubbard - kind of touchy, but maybe we should give her the newbie pass.
Eomer - sneaky but maybe more innocent than guilty.
Greenie - no read. Seems slightly confused but eager to make a point.
Inzil - funny (in the ordinary sense of the word). But that's it, mostly.
Nogrod - philosophering all around in a slightly artificial manner. Makes me raise my eyebrows a bit.
Legate - philosophering around in sort of "I have already given up" manner. Not sure what to make of it.
Nessa - chirpy. Sort of tries to make people like her? Anyway I'd be sad to see her go before I have had enough time to study her and save the data in my werewolf lorebook for next time we play together.

She votes for Nerwen, adding that she can't remember when she's last given such flimsy reasons for a vote:

Has been very weird and slightly unconstructive.

Day 2: questions Legate's logic, says we should start hunting wolves; questions the sense in lynching Nerwen on Day 1, suspects Inzil and Nog:

Ps. Currently suspecting Zil (too happy, for example: "I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before?") and Nog (somehow artificial, can't pharse it better).

After this, there's suddenly this:

Beep beep beep! Boromir88 is a wolf let's lynch him. Honestly, this is not a joke. He is just false. I admit part of my reason to think him weird is that he is not around as much as normal, but what he says seems weird. He is non-committal and doesn't give me the good solid honest Boro (who might be annoyingly tricksy but who's still always nice) feeling. He just seems off. And no, this is not knee jerk suspicion, although 1) his suspicion seems weird and 2) I'd be tempted to say he's a wolf and anxious to see me go because I have scared him enough by boasting about my infallible bororadar. (Which is not btw infallible but rather good! I tend to figure him out but at times I'm unsure and thenm it can go either way.)

Another list:

Wilwa - quiet, and nicely under the radar.
Lottie - is most probably <3
Boro - see what I said earlier. My top suspect atm.
Elronhubbard - slightly weird, touchy and making kind of eyebrow-raising choices. Then again, didn't we all do that first time? Difficult.
Eomer - kind of like him and his logic. I tend to suspect him too easily so for now I'm just ignoring his style.
Greenie - mostly seems like her busy and uninvolved ordo self who nevertheless brings up good points.
Inzil - seems more reliable toDay, and not only because I agreed with him about the hunter issue.
Nogrod - slightly difficult to read. I wonder if he's evil or if we just disagree. Wondering if he'd known that any ordo can be the heir if he was one himself.
Legate - difficult again. Leaning innocent, but also kind of under the radar.
Nessa - umm... no idea to be honest.

She votes Hunter-Lottie, would like her to hunt Boro.

Day 3:

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

Not sure if a wolf would have brought that up. That quote is also a part of why I thought she might be the Seer (I didn't, in my hurry, notice that her conviction of Boro's wolvery didn't appear right from the beginning of the Day, as it probably would have had she been the Seer). Continues the Boro-crusade. Votes Boro.

However, I wouldn't be too sad to find Zil dead after toDay either. Don't really have time to explain, but as pointed out, he is quite fishy and false-seeming.

Would you have time to explain now?

Conclusion: Her sudden jump on Boro is similar to what I remember an innocent Lommy doing before (on Mac, if I remember correctly). If she's a wolf, hats off for the acting. Her flip-flopping on Inzilwolf makes me raise my eyebrows though. During Day 2 she goes from suspecting him to finding him more reliable, then on Day 3 she wouldn't be sad to see him dead because he's "quite fishy and false-seeming".


EDIT: x-ed with 2x Lommy (talk about the devil!) - btw how can you x-post with yourself?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lomzy

I'm surprised how people are kind of downplaying Eomer's dreams. People seem to agree that he dreamt Nessa, but I also think he might well have dreamt Legate of Amon Wolf or A Little Ordo. I need to check his posts to make a theory I can believe in, but Wilwa and Legate's easy acceptance that the third seer dream was lost smells fishy to me.

I don't think it probable that he dreamed a Legwolf. It would have been awful stupid for a Seer who has dreamed two wolves out of three to not come into the open.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, I'm back (and the exam went well), so I'll go through both Eomer and Inzil's post now.

[A Little Green]

Aand going on..

Legsy
Day 1: Expresses dismay over the silence, makes a slightly pointless list:

Wilwa - no info
Lottie - one remark about possible relations of Inzil and LRH, seeming sort of innocent-ish to me, but nothing much in the end, really
Boro - no info
Sally - no info
Nerwen - a bit of chatter here and there, but nothing of substance. Possibly a bit of pressing on the LRH thing, but it seems more like she considered it fun all the time...
Elronhubbard - actually funny enough, being a newbie but posting basically the most. In any case, gets a newbie pass today, but even otherwise does not seem any suspicious straightaway.
Eomer - nothing much, a few remarks. If I was supposed to say from whom I am getting bad vibes, it is him, but it is simply the feeling and nothing more - so that means nothing.
Greenie - basically nothing
Inzil - attempt to engage in dialogue, but not really standing out in one way or another
Nogrod - no info
Lommy - tries to be active, in contrary to many others, and at least gives some opinions and such. I'd grant her pass just for that.
Legate - that's me
Nessa - nothing

He then debates the possibility of voting randomly. This following one I found rather interesting:

Myself, I'd at least prefer keeping the Heir as a "backup", like I said before, in case we managed to lynch a Gifted toDay, or even if we e.g. lynched an ordo and the WWs killed a Gifted at Night (which is not so unlikely scenario to happen, I think). Of course, like Lommy said, if we really lynched e.g. a Hunter now, we'd be sure that the Wolves don't use the Heir to their advantage. But then again, imagine if we lynch a Hunter and he kills the Seer...

I'm not saying an innocent Legate couldn't have said this, but I can't help thinking that a wolf would find this attitude advantageous.

I am a bit uncomfortable perhaps with Boro, because he wants to lynch Lommy, who seems sensible to me. But that's like the best shot I have.

Votes Boro, with a cryptic addition:

Good Night. Sleeping village, cockerel's cry, soft wind blowing in the trees, peace of mind, feel at ease...

Day 2: Weird theories on the Sally kill; I think these have been discussed enough.

Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!!

<3. That's all.

Wilwa - not really so much to go with, but when she is around, at least speaks, does not set off any alarms
Lottie - seems quite thoughtful, also does not really set off any alarms
Boro - okay, his vote today was rather weird, but I am not really going to judge him based on that... I think it'd be nice to see more from him, and possibly our village'd have needed his sort of decisive spirit in matters such as "lynch-or-not-to-lynch-whomever"...
Elronhubbard - became a bit more active at some point, not bad, I think there was something a bit curious about some of her posts, but nothing really "big"
Eomer - looks active to me, possibly with somewhat daring behavior, could be either, but does not really make me think him any highly suspicious
Greenie - seems sort of like Alice in the Wonderland, either confused, or acting it very well. It could be many of the under-the-rader-Greenwolves, but there's no real other evidence for that.
Inzil - contributive, but some of his posts especially earlier toDay made me think of him as if he assumed the role of "Mr.Agreeable" here, which might be a smoothy-Wolfdoing
Nogrod - I don't know what to think of him, on one hand, he seems active, but more strongly, he brings some rather dangerous suggestions which would, in my opinion, benefit only the WWs if being advocated - on the other hand, he is sometimes advocating things which are just confused-seeming (lynching the Heir), which would point more to innocence; but overall I am worried about him probably more than less
Lommy - I don't see anything suspicious about her
Nessa - has some interesting points. For some reason though, I think when reading her posts, I keep mixing her up with LRH (sorry both), I think one "homework" for me is to go through the posts of them both carefully to make a really proper opinion...

The list at least Eomer and I found eyebrow-raising. Legate is always wishy-washy, but in this particular list it looks calculated.
He then says he would likely go for Nog, votes Hunter-Lottie.

Day 3:

Hey, so at least something positive! I guess we could sort of take it the way that this compensates well for the loss of Nog yesterDay. Still, I think whatever the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was, at least we got the business with the Heir done. Now we still need to catch our first Wolf, but now at least we can start playing "properly", like not thinking about whether or not to lynch Wolves or whatnot...

As for the Aragorn-action, definitely it bought us more time. Whether it was a coincidence or not that somebody was targeted and protected, I think might be shown, but after reading this and the last bit of yesterDay, I actually have a certain suspicion now.

In any case, I hope toDay is going to be successful - we definitely should not go to any kind of inactivity, quite the opposite, as now we finally can do something. I am going to review some things and will be around from time to time during the day...

The underlined part doesn't strike me as something a wolf would come up with. Otherwise, I don't like the tone of this post. He then analyses Elra and Nessa without concluding much. Suspects Zil. Finds the Boro-Lommy exchange curious, with Lommy looking innocent and Boro unsure. Voting options Boro and Inzil.

Of my two options:

Inzil: basically the thing about being "too smooth" at some points. Okay, if you read his posts, he actually seems sensible, but question is more about whether he is being sensible, as in: trying to help, or if it is simply calculated. And I can well imagine a Inzilwolf acting that way...

Boro: has an ongoing crusade against Lommy who, in my opinion, looks innocent; moreover, he sort of keeps bringing it back urgently... otherwise, not really around. In any case, he is not being particularly "helpful", a questionmark... now I noticed he said this thing where he basically says he does not mind himself being lynched, which at least puts one doubt I had about him away, however on the other hand, it raises the question whether he would say that as a Wolf, to offer himself like that... though on the other hand, the village is not anymore in the position to lynch innocents, so it does not really make much sense for the ordos to do this, and possibly Wolf might use it as a cover.

In any case, I don't really want to vote any of the others apart from these two right now and in any case, spreading the votes any more does not make any sense, especially in these numbers, and I am not going to vote for Lommy.

He ends up voting Inzil, bringing him to a tie with Boro.

Conclusion: Well, he's wishy-washy, says a lot without concluding much. He's always more or less that way, but this time I'm debating if it's calculated. His vote for Inzil was given at a pretty crucial moment though, not the most likely timing for a wolf-on-wolf vote unless it was planned beforehand. In sum I'm not sure about Legate, no precious, not sure at all.


EDIT: x-ed with a load of Lommies and a Wilwa

[Thinlómien]

Day1
The only one he mentions is Legate whom he votes. His comments are contradictory. ("Gotta kill someone, right? Bloodlust to sate, and all that." and "I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.")

Day2

However, they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally.

The phrasing makes me quite confident he didn't dream Nerwen or Sally.

Loslote, I am most happy to assume and believe that our wonderful and clever Hunter is going to choose correctly.

That was before she came out. Now, I wonder if this means he dreamt her. Looks a little like he knew her role, whether by dreaming or guessing, that we can't know... Although later he says:

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with! If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

I would be inclined to think he wouldn't say that if he knew it was Lottie - but again the other hand, when Eomer posted this, Lottie hadn't been around for three hours, but then again, she hadn't voted and he should have thought about her being American ie around later. Gah? See how this continues...

Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish

Most interesting, eh? Nothing very clear, except that Nessa clearly was dreamt on Night3. That means he must have dreamt Zil earlier and just kept quiet about it. This makes me think he probably didn't dream another wolf (Legate) because he would've been crazy if he had had two wolves under his belt and kept hiding and not even leaving clear hints about them. I wonder who his other earlier dream was, though. Greenie? Nogrod? The famous Lottie?

Day3

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.

Further proof he didn't dream Legatewolf. Makes me think he is quite a gambler though (see his Day1 vote).

It's my belief that yesterday was close to perfection for the villagers. I'm very glad this Heir business is out of the way.

Close to perfection? Does this mean almost perfect, like nothing went wrong? Or almost perfect in that we lost two a seer-dreamed innocent? Confused.

I tend to agree, Legate, but this happens sometimes. I'm pretty suspicious of you, by the way. But there's only one person whom we should lynch today and I've named him already, former packmate of mine - I wish Loslote had kept her sight on you!

Again, his suspicion of Legate most probably wasn't dream-based.

Wilwa - shouldn't be overlooked
Boro - quite suspicious, as usual, but not convinced
Elronhubbard - shouldn't be overlooked mk 2
Greenie - I think she's probably innocent
Inzil - obviously a wolf and must die in a gruesome fashion
Lommy - it would go against tradition to argue against her lynching
Legate - I am suspicious - reminds me of Inzi, a lot
Nessa - pure and innocent

So, like I've said, after Nessa the most probable seer dreams would be Greenie or Legate. However, I think I've basically proved it's impossible he dreamt Legate, so I'm willing to give that up. Greenie? Not sure. Compared to what he says about Nessa, though, it looks so unsure that it makes me doubtful of his dreaming her. And of all the phrasings, he chose "I think" which implies at rationality, not divine knowledge.

All I can really think of is: don't waste today's lynch. Kill Inziladun. He should have went yesterday instead of Nogrod.

A subtle hint that he had dreamt Nogrod?


Conclusions:
Night1 dream: Nogrod (had he dreamt a wolf, I think he'd have revealed given that he suggested a seer reveal and lynch or at least given a hint in case he took the knwledge to the grave with himself)
Night2 dream: Zil (ha! this makes sense now, all of it. Didn't bring the suspicion up too poiuntedly because wanted to lynch the hunter and have her take him down with herself.)
Night3 dream: Nessa (the obvious change of opinion and the phrasings, need I say more?)


edit: xed with Greenie

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don't think it probable that he dreamed a Legwolf. It would have been awful stupid for a Seer who has dreamed two wolves out of three to not come into the open.

Eomer is one of the few players I could see gambling that. But no need to speculate about that anymore...

edit: xed with Wilwa

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - difficult. Not around much, kind of gives innocent vibes but then again slips under the radar.

Boro - still suspicious of him. Wondering, though. I'm kind of torn: my gut-feeling definitely does not say he's innocent, unlike most times when he is. On the other hand, he's been around so little and focused his energy on attacking me, so to be fair I think that could have blurred my perception on him. On the third hand () I think it is fairly suspicious he uses all his energy on attacking me. It wouldn't be so bad if he had good reasons, but because his reasons are pretty much grasping at straws, I think it's rather eyebrow-raising worthy that he uses his limited time only for talking about me (although maybe I should just be flattered ). All in all, 2/3 suspicion, 1/3 confusion.

Elronhubbard - hmm. Like Greenie said, she is quite quick to take back her words and rather fishy. On the other hand, she's new. Honestly no idea but I'd be still kind of be willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Greenie - almost exactly like Wilwa. Curious about her summarising project though - it's something that takes a lot of time and I wonder if she'd bother doing it if she was a wolf. On the other hand, she could be a wolf looking for logical suspects. Not too worried about her though, especially as she did not suspect Nogrod which is something she'd probably have done as a wolf because she can always get away with that as it's a tradition.

Legate - he's been slipping under my radar for most of the game. He doesn't strike me as particularily furry but he hardly ever does even if he is a wolf. He has been considering me innocent a lot, which kind of makes me suspicious: I think he knows I'm bad at suspecting people who strongly imply they think I'm innocent. Garr. I should definitely pay more attention to him.

Nessa - our known innocent, I think. Glad to be able to discount somebody.

So:

innocent
Nessa

likely innocent
Greenie
Wilwa

unsure
Ronnie
Legate

suspicious
Boro

I'm waiting for someone to go through people's relations with Inzil for me, it will undoubtedly alter the situation somehow. If there's no incirminating evidence, though, I think I'm (again) going for Boro toDay too because he's the best suspect I have atm.

Off now for a while because I have an essay to write. Will be back.

[Thinlómien]

Hi everybody I'm in the middle of writing a post but I wanted to post this meanwhile because I'm thinking we are lacking something important...

The dead
Nerwen (ordo) - lynched on Day1
Sally (ordo) - killed on Night2
Lottie (hunter) - lynched on Day2
Nogrod (ordo) - taken by the hunter on Day2
Zil (wolf) - lynched on Day3
Eomer (seer) - killed on Night4

The living
Wilwa
Boro
Elronhubbard
Greenie
Lommy
Legate
Nessa

So we have 7 people left, 3 ordos, 2 wolves and the ranger and the hunter.

[Thinlómien]

'K... not really surprised to find out that Eomer was the seer. Too bad to see him go. It actually even crossed my mind at some point yesterDay, the way he talked about Zil. But I was far from sure, so I didn't want to jump on the Zil-wagon based on a vague seer suspect since I didn't have a clear opinion on Zil himself and I also thought Eomer would reveal if he really was the seer so there'd be enough votes for Zil if he really was a dreamed wolf. But hey, we got one wolf, which is great. Too bad it just rings a bit false to my own ear to be happy about that since I still feel like we're losing the game with 5 against 2 whose identities could be almost anything.

I'm surprised how people are kind of downplaying Eomer's dreams. People seem to agree that he dreamt Nessa, but I also think he might well have dreamt Legate of Amon Wolf or A Little Ordo. I need to check his posts to make a theory I can believe in, but Wilwa and Legate's easy acceptance that the third seer dream was lost smells fishy to me.

I think somebody should go through Zil's posts and others' posts about him. I won't have time in operations like that, like I said before joining. However, if nobody else does it, I think I'm going to do it and take the time from my sleep or something, since it's pretty vital.

So, up next:
- a list to help me figure out what I think about people
- checking Eomer's posts (I'm glad he writes no novels!)


edit: xed with Greenie and myself