WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[wilwarin538]

For both I just looked at what they said about other people, looking at what they said about game mechanics is kind of pointless.


Inzil
#29: says Lottie’s meta-reasoning about him and ED not being packmates makes her look innocent, and that ED looks a bit defensive but gets a newbie pass

#103: considers voting Nog or Nerwen, and trusts Lommy

#108: thinks Lottie is likely to be innocent, votes Nerwen, restates that Lommy looks good

#270: questions Nessa’s reasoning

So: he doesn't really say much about people or interact with many. Most of the time he just talked about the Heir business. He mentions that he trusts Lommy more than once, so I would say that makes her look better (he wouldn't be that obvious if she was a wolf). Also points out things about Lottie that he trusts, but not in the same way as he did Lommy.

~*~*~*~*~*~

Eomer

#73: votes Legate, saying “gotta kill someone, right?”

#78: says about Legate: “I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.”

(day 2)
#129: says this about the wolves: “they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally”

#197: says a list of Legate’s seems a bit off

#208: a list:
Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish

(day 3)
#236: not surprised by the Ranger save

#241: says “Boro’s an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn’t worry about Nessa, though.”

#253: says he’d be surprised if it hadn’t been the Seer who was protected

#255: says he’s suspicious of Legate, but that there’s only one person we should lynch today (referring to Inzil)

#259: posts the list that I quoted earlier

So: I'm still rather surprised he didn't reveal yesterDay, because he said more than once he was expecting someone too. He seemed to think that he was the wolve's target and had been protected, so that would lead me to think that he had said something the Day before that he felt made him look Seerish. I would guess that it's because in that first list he points some suspicions at Inzil (so he probably dreamt him one of the first two Nights). In that same list he is really unsure of Nessa, but then the following Day is sure of her innocence, so it looks like she was his Night 3 dream. I'm not sure who his third dream would have been. He is fairly consistently suspicious of Legate, but the way he said yesterDay that "there's only one person we should lynch today" makes me think he didn't dream Legate as a wolf, or else he would have gone after him the same way, and obviously didn't dream Legate as innocent or else he wouldn't be suspicious of him at all. Kind of a similar situation to Boro. I doubt one of them was his 3rd dream.

I just scrolled down and realised Lommy's already done this , and come to similar conclusions. I suppose Nog was a possible Night 1 dream, but it doesn't seem all that clear, obviously not a wolf or else he would have said more about it. Maybe another Gifted, didn't want to give them away? It's really hard to say.

edit: x'ed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Right - I just figured out it's midnight soon so I'd better vote soon and go to sleep. The thing is, after a bit of analysis I think everyone could be a wolf or could not. I didn't have notes on Boro because I had already gone through him yesterDay. I'd like a new look though, might do that if I'm not feeling sleepy. For now I don't trust him.

I will definitely not vote Nessa the as-good-as-known innocent, probably not Wilwa either. Which leaves me with Boro, Hubbard, Lommy and Legate. I would be fine with any of these actually. Least maybe Lommy.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Oh wow, a lot's happened. We lost a seer and killed a wolf, so it's sort of a double-edged sword.

I am, however, glad to have my innocence reassured.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I see how you'd find me worrisome, Legate, but the reason for my non-vote was simply the confusion that Inzil raised about DL. I had hoped Shasta would be able to clear up the confusion before DL...but 'twas not to be.

I am perhaps too forgiving - I just wanted to give Zil a chance to redeem himself, but since he gave up so easily...I considered just voting for him anyway, without letting him give a proper defense, but I was exhausted that night and fell asleep before I could (sorry...11:30 for Shasta is half-past midnight for me...I think I may be getting too old for late nights).

Noted, but this is of course as well what a Wolf might have said too... the point is mainly that there was this sort of "debate" with Zil in the first place. Non-votes can of course happen, but my point was that if I look at the votes, yours (resp. your non-vote) is among the most suspicious.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That was before she came out. Now, I wonder if this means he dreamt her.

Personally I would say so. If he addresses Lottie like this, then why would he say that if he didn't think she has anything to do with the Hunter. Of course, he might have guessed it, and not dreamed of her, but it would make a lot of sense that way, I think.

The possibility of dreaming about Nogrod is also there, although it seems that this one is far more likely, given the above.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Close to perfection? Does this mean almost perfect, like nothing went wrong? Or almost perfect in that we lost two a seer-dreamed innocent? Confused.

I would imagine simply the fact that he means that no Wolf was killed by the Hunter. And, if it was two seer-dreamed innocents, then you mean that he would have dreamed about Nog and Lottie (and thus Inzil the other Night, and no Nessa?). That sounds rather awkward to say that...

Now I want to really go through Inzil's posts myself, so will be back in a minute with that... or I hope it will be "minute"...

EDIT: x-ed with Nessa

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

And, if it was two seer-dreamed innocents, then you mean that he would have dreamed about Nog and Lottie (and thus Inzil the other Night, and no Nessa?). That sounds rather awkward to say that...

*facepalms* I originally wrote "two seer-dreamed innocents", then realised Eomer had only three dreams not four so I made a mistake so I wanted to edit it to "a seer-dreamed innocent" but somehow I managed to post it as "two a seer-dreamed innocent" which doesn't mean anything.

[Thinlómien]

1. Greenie -> Boro
"So, looks like it's going to be Boro or Legate for me toDay. I'm rather torn right now - I suspect Legate a bit more, but I might feel better voting Boro since I have actually checked his posts." ToDay she also said she thought I was the seer and I had dreamt a Borowolf.

2. Boro -> Lommy
"I still say Lommy very very over-reacting to my vote yesterday."

3. Eomer -> Zil

4. Lommy -> Boro (2)
"Greenie said Boro is fishy 'cos he suspects me everyday but for a different reason. And this Day kind of proves the point! I think Boro is overreacting, not me. Feeling threatened, eh?"

5. Legate -> Zil (2)
"Okay, I think from my part, Boro can wait."

6. Wilwa -> Zil (3) xed with Legate
"I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly)"

7. Nessa -> Zil (4)

Comments to follow...


edit: xed with Greenie

[Thinlómien]

Okay, so it comes down to wondering if the wolves had any reason to go w-on-w yesterDay.

It depends a lot on if they realised Eomer was the seer. Given that they knew Zil's guilt and Eomer was being rather adamant, I think it's likely.

So they could have thought that once they kill Eomer, Zil will be dead anyway so they wouldn't have shied away from taking part in his lynch.

On the other hand 1) they could have delayed Zil's death by voting someone else (but would they have looked bad?) and 2) they could not have been sure about Eomer's role and I think they'd have wanted to avoid overreacting because the numbers were getting advantageous for them (them being 3/8).

So I end up with the amazing conclusion that they could either have gone wolf-on-wolf or not.

Voted someone else than Zil: Greenie, Boro, me
Voted Zil: Legate, Wilwa
Didn't vote: Elron

And there's the interesting thing that Legate and Wilwa xposted, which gives their votes equal suspiciousness/innocence status, whatever it is. I think it's incredibly funny if they are the two wolves.

Kind of in summary, Greenie and me voted someone who was suspected who was not Zil (although he was suspected mostly by the two of us ). Boro voted someone who wasn't generally suspected (me), so kind of throwaway. Legate and Wilwa both thought they'd level Zil with Boro, but together they actually put him on the lead.

Try to conclude anything from that! *deep sigh* Kind of thinking it unlikely both Legate and Wilwa are wolves. Legate's vote looks better with him giving up the option of Boro and Wilwa looks better in general.

I'd hate to suspect Greenie, especially with her me-seer theory because it sounds quite innocent.

And if this leads me to suspect Boro and Elron I hate it because they seem like the "easiest suspects" for me. I'm pretty sure one of Wilwa/Legate/Greenie is a wolf, but not sure which one. And one is Boro/Elron, leaning heavily on Boro. Although I have to say I'll regret it if we lynch him and I turn out to be wrong because that would mean I've lost my touch when it comes to figuring him out. On the other hand, I'll probably be even more sorry if we don't lynch him and he wins as a wolf.

So, most likelily voting Boro toDay unless something drastic happens. (Btw I'm pretty sure Greenie is innocent if Boro is guilty.)


edit: xed with Legz

[Thinlómien]

(forgot I had something to reply to)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Would you have time to explain now?

To be honest, it wasn't about time. It was about me wondering if Eomer was the seer who had dreamt Zil.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Her sudden jump on Boro is similar to what I remember an innocent Lommy doing before (on Mac, if I remember correctly).

Oh that was a dreadful game... such an epic fail from my part. (For those who don't know or remember, it was Sally's game, I was the ranger and convinced Mac was guilty. I was right about him being a wolf, but he managed to get me lynched by revealing as the ranger and I was too proud to counter-reveal... oh dear.) But anyway the point was, I was right that time. Trust my innocent hunches.

[Thinlómien]

++Boro

1) He is suspicious. Like I said, he doesn't have the honest air he normally does when innocent. He also concentrates 90% on one person (me) which is the kind of narrow-mindedness an innocent simply can't afford. Plus, he is very edgy and seems more focused on that I am suspicious more than why I am suspicious.

2) I could concentrate on other people better if he was dead. Now I'm kind of happy with my current lack of suspects because I'm always thinking "oh but I'm quite sure Boro's a wolf, I'm not so clueless, it's ok to be unsure about others". And I'd never ever forgive myself if I let him go at this point and he was a wolf and won the game.

That's it from me for toDay. Although the DL is at an almost tolerable hour this time (9.30 am my time) I know it's not realistic to think that I'd get up earlier to play ww as I have to leave from home around the DL, especially as it's already past 1 now. So good night!

PS. I just realised I might sound hypocritical when I blame Boro for narrow-mindedness ill-suited for an innocent, but if you go through my posts, you will realise I have really suspected other people a lot (although Boro the most) while he has hardly mentioned anyone else than me as suspicious...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, as for vote:

Nessa is a dreamed innocent. Lommy to me looks more innocent than not, I am certainly not going to vote her on any experimental basis, also because we are, even though we lynched a Wolf, still rather low in numbers. Similarly with Wilwaand Greenie. Wilwa's vote for Inzil makes her look good, and with Greenie, I don't have any strong reason for suspicion either.

It comes down to either Boro or LRH. I am really wondering about the possibility of LRH being a newbie Wolf with Inzil. I would possibly prefer her right now, although on the other hand that would mean letting Boro escape the noose once again, and of course it would be brilliant to find he was a Wolf only after doing that for several days. Since I believe there was already one vote cast for Boro, and not sure how people think about LRH, it might be just logical to simply vote Boro. The question is, though, after he is lynched and if he is found guilty, who is the other Wolf. Greenie? Wilwa (meaning Wolf-on-Wolf vote yesterDay)? Lommy? (meaning ridiculous Wolf-on-Wolf campaign all the time? I'd find that really ridiculous) Because there is the thing that I find it unlikely, like I have said earlier, that Boro and LRH would be Wolves together.

But truth is, Boro remains an enigma, and I concur with what's been said that keeping him around still keeps the questionmark hovering over village.

I'll go brush my teeth or something and decide.

EDIT: crossposted with Lommy and LRH! Okay...

[wilwarin538]

Votes so far,

Greenie -> Boro
Lommy -> Boro (2)
Elronhubbard -> Boro (3)
Legate -> Elronhubbard
Boro -> Lommy

Left to vote: Wilwa, Nessa


Is this the second day that Lommy and Boro have voted for each other? It's really strange the way that the two of them are so adamant about each other's guilt. I feel quite good about Lommy, and just a bit unsure of Boro. He is acting out of character, but it seems likely that that's just due to the fact that he can't be around as much as usual. So I don't really feel comfortable voting either of them. LRH, though some things she's said have been a little off, I think it's mostly just newbiness. So...

I don't know who to vote for. I'm afraid I'm in that weird position I seem to always be in where everyone looks shiny to me. So....I'm not going to vote, because it would either be a throwaway, or for someone I'm not suspicious of, and I would prefer not to do either.

Anyway, I'm off to bed, because I've been studying and doing exams all weekend and I need rest so that I can fully enjoy my day off tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

Hmm, I think I'm going to go for

++ Boro

I think that's my best bet toDay. Good night.